{ "created_utc": "2026-10-12T05:58:08.625901+00:00", "freeze_sha256": "30597b66954197d2ae516c9b80f866c4bdd5f30cc48c52f24ed8151166749a2e", "scope": { "MLB": 2, "NFL": 1, "NBA": 5, "NHL": 3, "FBS": 0, "FCS": 0, "NCAAM": 0, "WNBA": 0, "MLS": 0, "UFC": 0, "all_scope_events": 11, "numeric_events": 10, "partial_numeric_events": 1, "numeric_model_rows": 41, "future_events": 11, "elapsed_events": 0 }, "games": [ { "id": "401892485", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892485", "date": "2026-10-12T17:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1848", "fullName": "KeyBank Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Buffalo", "state": "NY", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "26", "away_name": "Florida Panthers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2", "home_name": "Buffalo Sabres", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.86, 3.3112195121951222 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.86, 3.3112195121951222 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.86, 3.3112195121951222 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.2, "prior_rates": [ 3.0609756097560976, 3.3658536585365852 ], "current_rates": [ 1.8, 2.4 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.2, "prior_rates": [ 3.5121951219512195, 2.9390243902439024 ], "current_rates": [ 2.2, 3.8 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "wilson95": [ 0.2076596008020477, 0.9385080552796037 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3478452678757558, "mean_margin_error": 2.6956905357515115, "mean_total_error": 1.5761283093600158, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.9634100000000001, 4.96341 ], "home": [ 1.396335, 5.3963350000000005 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.968863591628281, 3.369603738448457 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.968863591628281, 3.369603738448457 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.968863591628281, 3.369603738448457 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2855, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-11T23:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3b0adb131271c75a77cc788f19735b2d2d53f6aceeae8ec00c0d22392f6a8570" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "wilson95": [ 0.2076596008020477, 0.9385080552796037 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3332969922245195, "mean_margin_error": 2.666593984449039, "mean_total_error": 1.516383961247979, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.9634100000000001, 4.96341 ], "home": [ 1.396335, 5.3963350000000005 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 2.96341, 3.396335 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.96341, 3.396335 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.96341, 3.396335 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.0, "pa": 3.34146, "official_team_id": 13, "official_team_name": "Florida Panthers" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.45121, "pa": 2.92682, "official_team_id": 7, "official_team_name": "Buffalo Sabres" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "wilson95": [ 0.2076596008020477, 0.9385080552796037 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4105683333333332, "mean_margin_error": 2.8211366666666664, "mean_total_error": 1.6707366666666665, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.9634100000000001, 4.96341 ], "home": [ 1.396335, 5.3963350000000005 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 2.96341, 3.396335 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.96341, 3.396335 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.96341, 3.396335 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.0, "pa": 3.34146, "official_team_id": 13, "official_team_name": "Florida Panthers" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.45121, "pa": 2.92682, "official_team_id": 7, "official_team_name": "Buffalo Sabres" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "wilson95": [ 0.2076596008020477, 0.9385080552796037 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4105683333333332, "mean_margin_error": 2.8211366666666664, "mean_total_error": 1.6707366666666665, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.9634100000000001, 4.96341 ], "home": [ 1.396335, 5.3963350000000005 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "FLA: Official Monday preview changes the top group to Brady Tkachuk/Bennett/Matthew Tkachuk and Verhaeghe/Lafferty/Reinhart; same18 skaters as Oct10. Barkov/Marchand/Gadjovich absent from reference. Keep individual EV/PP/SH exposure but combination change is unestimated; no full healthy-player deduction. BUF: Official Monday projection returns Kulich/Helenius while Danforth/Kozak become scratches. Conditional like-for-like forward role transfer conserves EV/PP/SH skater-seconds; center Norris remains. Zucker/Timmins remain absence references; Lyon is separate goalie review.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.", "reviewer": "Parent reconciliation of independent evidence" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independent arithmetic reviewed current nonfootball outputs; London remains outside comparable NBA history. Classic/Primary provisional; ON/OFF identical registered means. Opportunity scenarios do not supply a validated scoring conversion.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "KeyBank Center; listed 2026-10-12T17:00Z. Official NHL gameType2 and date/venue/time matched; do not call current games preseason. NHL activation gate remains tracking-only.", "details": { "event_id": "401892485", "sport": "NHL", "away": "Florida Panthers", "home": "Buffalo Sabres", "start_et": "2026-10-12T13:00:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-12T17:00Z", "venue": { "id": "1848", "fullName": "KeyBank Center", "address": { "city": "Buffalo", "state": "NY", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Mon, October 12th at 1:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/12 - 1:00 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261012&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T05:33:49.658909+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-11" ], "context": [ "Official NHL gameType2 and date/venue/time matched; do not call current games preseason. NHL activation gate remains tracking-only." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Florida Panthers", "previous_game": { "id": "401891805", "date": "2026-10-10T22:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1840", "fullName": "Amerant Bank Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Sunrise", "state": "FL", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "30", "away_name": "Minnesota Wild", "away_score": 4.0, "home": "26", "home_name": "Florida Panthers", "home_score": 1.0, "day": 20736.916666666668 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar gap from last retained completed game, not verified flight/rest hours. No automatic rest/travel score adjustment.", "limitation": null }, { "side": "home", "team": "Buffalo Sabres", "previous_game": { "id": "401892472", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1848", "fullName": "KeyBank Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Buffalo", "state": "NY", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "129764", "away_name": "Utah Mammoth", "away_score": 4.0, "home": "2", "home_name": "Buffalo Sabres", "home_score": 1.0, "day": 20736.958333333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar gap from last retained completed game, not verified flight/rest hours. No automatic rest/travel score adjustment.", "limitation": null } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct weather adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "official_event_id": 2026020087, "stage_label": "Regular season / tracking only" }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor arena; no direct weather adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct weather adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020001/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020011/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020016/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020022/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020037/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020049/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020052/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020057/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020073/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020074/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-11", 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"https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/team/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=100&cayenneExp=seasonId=20252026%20and%20gameTypeId=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261012&limit=1000", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261012&limit=200", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades" ], "tu": { "id": "401892485", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892485", "date": "2026-10-12T17:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1848", "fullName": "KeyBank Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Buffalo", "state": "NY", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "26", "away_name": "Florida Panthers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2", "home_name": "Buffalo Sabres", "home_score": 0.0 }, "engine_id": "tighten-up-nhl-existing-oct7", "formula": "2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus", "away_score": 2.96341, "home_score": 3.396335, "unrounded_score": [ 2.96341, 3.396335 ], "legacy_internal_rounded_score": [ 2.96, 3.4 ], "rounding_note": "Original arithmetic retained without premature storage rounding, as current four-model standard requires. Half-point display only.", "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.0, "pa": 3.34146, "official_team_id": 13, "official_team_name": "Florida Panthers" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.45121, "pa": 2.92682, "official_team_id": 7, "official_team_name": "Buffalo Sabres" } }, "terms": {}, "venue": { "away": 0, "home": 0 }, "current_component_policy": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.9634100000000001, 4.96341 ], "home": [ 1.396335, 5.3963350000000005 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261012&limit=200", "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/team/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=100&cayenneExp=seasonId=20252026%20and%20gameTypeId=2" ], "input_files": [ { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-12-Research\\scoring\\slate-NHL.json", "sha256": "f0f3df9430da4e75229473952ed6302c51572e8d23cc6244f45249dbde909ab0" }, { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-12-Research\\tightenup\\NHL.json", "sha256": "fc20ae5600210fcbfcd490dbed240ee3c7fb1bbcac7fb67592781a986a864e00" } ], "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Tracking-only policy; explicit sport activation and calibrated buffers/distribution absent.", "resolved": false } ], "conservative_on": { "status": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "minimum_side_buffer": null, "minimum_total_buffer": 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Kulikov" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:22", "shifts": 18 }, { "event_id": 2026020073, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "FLA", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020073/boxscore", "playerId": 8478055, "name": { "default": "G. Forsling" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:15", "shifts": 24 }, { "event_id": 2026020073, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "FLA", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020073/boxscore", "playerId": 8478859, "name": { "default": "N. Mikkola" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:53", "shifts": 23 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Official since-July tracker checked; precautionary September-onward both-side ledger retained, offseason changes distinct.", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "version": "event-review-2026-10-12-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-12T05:39:57.160121+00:00", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892485", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 2.86, 3.3112195121951222 ], "Primary": [ 2.968863591628281, 3.369603738448457 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 2.96341, 3.396335 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 2.96341, 3.396335 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 2.86, 3.3112195121951222 ], "Primary": [ 2.968863591628281, 3.369603738448457 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 2.96341, 3.396335 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 2.96341, 3.396335 ] }, "adjusted_score_status": "Unestimated; original scores retained as base, not silently labeled adjusted.", "baseline_exposure": "Registered aggregates do not identify each player reference weight. All player workload variants are sensitivities, not calibrated corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED_ALLOWED: no validated role-controlled run/PPP/goal coefficient", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "football_minus3": 0, "uncertainty": "Projected role is not confirmed lineup. Preserve unknown numerical effect, teammate/opponent confounding and reference exposure.", "collector_source": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\Offensive-Replacement-Tracking\\capture-20261012T053148Z", "price_inputs_used": false, "sources": [ "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/timeonice?isAggregate=false&isGame=true&start=0&limit=100&cayenneExp=gameId%3D2026020073", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season" ], "findings": "Official Monday preview changes the top group to Brady Tkachuk/Bennett/Matthew Tkachuk and Verhaeghe/Lafferty/Reinhart; same18 skaters as Oct10. Barkov/Marchand/Gadjovich absent from reference. Keep individual EV/PP/SH exposure but combination change is unestimated; no full healthy-player deduction.", "reference_date": "2026-10-10", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8477493, "player": "Aleksander Barkov", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8477935, "player": "Sam Bennett", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8474189, "player": "Lars Eller", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8479981, "player": "Jonah Gadjovich", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8477903, "player": "Garnet Hathaway", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8478147, "player": "Bokondji Imama", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8478043, "player": "Sam Lafferty", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8482113, "player": "Anton Lundell", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8480185, "player": "Eetu Luostarinen", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8473419, "player": "Brad Marchand", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8477933, "player": "Sam Reinhart", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8480801, "player": "Brady Tkachuk", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8479314, "player": "Matthew Tkachuk", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8477409, "player": "Carter Verhaeghe", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8483771, "player": "Sandis Vilmanis", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8484304, "player": "Uvis Balinskis", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8477932, "player": "Aaron Ekblad", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8478055, "player": "Gustav Forsling", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8475462, "player": "Radko Gudas", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8477495, "player": "Seth Jones", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8475179, "player": "Dmitry Kulikov", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8478859, "player": "Niko Mikkola", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8474593, "player": "Jacob Markstrom", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8481033, "player": "Akira Schmid", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" } ], "comparison_player_ids": [ 8473419, 8474189, 8474593, 8475179, 8475462, 8477409, 8477493, 8477495, 8477903, 8477932, 8477933, 8477935, 8478043, 8478055, 8478147, 8478859, 8479314, 8479981, 8480185, 8480801, 8481033, 8482113, 8483771, 8484304 ], "two_season_comparison_rows": [ { "seasonId": 20242025, "shootingPct": 0.11855, "otGoals": 2, "points": 51, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1099.4507, "shGoals": 0, "evGoals": 18, "gamesPlayed": 71, "positionCode": "L", "goals": 23, "shots": 194, "shPoints": 1, "gameWinningGoals": 5, "ppPoints": 13, "playerId": 8473419, "ppGoals": 5, "evPoints": 37, "teamAbbrevs": "BOS,FLA", "assists": 28, "skaterFullName": "Brad Marchand", "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "shootingPct": 0.09615, "otGoals": 0, "points": 22, "timeOnIcePerGame": 797.4875, "shGoals": 0, "evGoals": 10, "gamesPlayed": 80, "positionCode": "C", "goals": 10, "shots": 104, "shPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 1, "playerId": 8474189, "ppGoals": 0, "evPoints": 21, "teamAbbrevs": "PIT,WSH", "assists": 12, "skaterFullName": "Lars Eller", "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "shootingPct": 0.0625, "otGoals": 0, "points": 13, "timeOnIcePerGame": 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"https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "shootingPct": 0.08264, "otGoals": 0, "points": 53, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1072.1481, "shGoals": 0, "evGoals": 15, "gamesPlayed": 81, "positionCode": "C", "goals": 20, "shots": 242, "shPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 5, "ppPoints": 16, "playerId": 8477409, "ppGoals": 5, "evPoints": 37, "teamAbbrevs": "FLA", "assists": 33, "skaterFullName": "Carter Verhaeghe", "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "shootingPct": 0.13422, "otGoals": 2, "points": 71, "timeOnIcePerGame": 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"https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "shootingPct": 0.125, "otGoals": 0, "points": 21, "timeOnIcePerGame": 711.8208, "shGoals": 2, "evGoals": 8, "gamesPlayed": 67, "positionCode": "R", "goals": 10, "shots": 80, "shPoints": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "ppPoints": 0, "playerId": 8477903, "ppGoals": 0, "evPoints": 19, "teamAbbrevs": "PHI", "assists": 11, "skaterFullName": "Garnet Hathaway", "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "shootingPct": 0.0283, "otGoals": 0, "points": 33, "timeOnIcePerGame": 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"timeOnIcePerShift": 57.11111 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1097, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1097.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020074, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Zellweger", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "UTA", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482803, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 13, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 13.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 22, "shiftsPerGame": 22.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Olen Zellweger", "teamAbbrev": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 1110, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1110.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.45454 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 804, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 804.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020074, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Benson", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "UTA", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484145, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 212, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 212.0, "shTimeOnIce": 178, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 178.0, "shifts": 23, "shiftsPerGame": 23.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Zach Benson", "teamAbbrev": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 1194, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1194.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 51.91304 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 759, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 759.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020074, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Norris", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "UTA", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8480064, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 90, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 90.0, "shTimeOnIce": 144, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 144.0, "shifts": 26, "shiftsPerGame": 26.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Josh Norris", "teamAbbrev": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 993, "timeOnIcePerGame": 993.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 38.1923 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 723, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 723.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020074, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Crevier", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "UTA", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8481806, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 184, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 184.0, "shifts": 17, "shiftsPerGame": 17.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Louis Crevier", "teamAbbrev": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 907, "timeOnIcePerGame": 907.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 53.35294 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 972, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 972.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020074, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Quinn", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "UTA", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482097, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 248, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 248.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 26, "shiftsPerGame": 26.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Jack Quinn", "teamAbbrev": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 1220, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1220.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.92307 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 451, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 451.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020074, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Kozak", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "UTA", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482896, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 1, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 11, "shiftsPerGame": 11.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Tyson Kozak", "teamAbbrev": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 452, "timeOnIcePerGame": 452.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 41.0909 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 515, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 515.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020074, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Carrick", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "UTA", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8475842, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 8, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 8.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 11, "shiftsPerGame": 11.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Sam Carrick", "teamAbbrev": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 523, "timeOnIcePerGame": 523.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.54545 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 710, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 710.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020074, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Krebs", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "UTA", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8481522, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 59, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 59.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 17, "shiftsPerGame": 17.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Peyton Krebs", "teamAbbrev": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 769, "timeOnIcePerGame": 769.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.23529 } ], "projected_seconds_by_strength": [ { "player_id": 8482659, "player": "Josh Doan", "EV_seconds": 798, "PP_seconds": 58, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484305, "player": "Zach Metsa", "EV_seconds": 524, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 234 }, { "player_id": 8479420, "player": "Tage Thompson", "EV_seconds": 986, "PP_seconds": 210, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483500, "player": "Noah Ostlund", "EV_seconds": 883, "PP_seconds": 250, "SH_seconds": 15 }, { "player_id": 8480802, "player": "Ryan McLeod", "EV_seconds": 663, "PP_seconds": 86, "SH_seconds": 178 }, { "player_id": 8480807, "player": "Mattias Samuelsson", "EV_seconds": 852, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 237 }, { "player_id": 8483468, "player": "Jiri Kulich", "EV_seconds": 519, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 96 }, { "player_id": 8479359, "player": "Beck Malenstyn", "EV_seconds": 492, "PP_seconds": 5, "SH_seconds": 234 }, { "player_id": 8482671, "player": "Owen Power", "EV_seconds": 1260, "PP_seconds": 65, "SH_seconds": 181 }, { "player_id": 8480839, "player": "Rasmus Dahlin", "EV_seconds": 1290, "PP_seconds": 245, "SH_seconds": 7 }, { "player_id": 8482803, "player": "Olen Zellweger", "EV_seconds": 1097, "PP_seconds": 13, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484145, "player": "Zach Benson", "EV_seconds": 804, "PP_seconds": 212, "SH_seconds": 178 }, { "player_id": 8480064, "player": "Josh Norris", "EV_seconds": 759, "PP_seconds": 90, "SH_seconds": 144 }, { "player_id": 8481806, "player": "Louis Crevier", "EV_seconds": 723, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 184 }, { "player_id": 8482097, "player": "Jack Quinn", "EV_seconds": 972, "PP_seconds": 248, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484797, "player": "Konsta Helenius", "EV_seconds": 451, "PP_seconds": 1, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475842, "player": "Sam Carrick", "EV_seconds": 515, "PP_seconds": 8, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481522, "player": "Peyton Krebs", "EV_seconds": 710, "PP_seconds": 59, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "projected_changes": [ { "from": "Justin Danforth", "from_id": 8479941, "to": "Jiri Kulich", "to_id": 8483468, "EV_seconds": 519, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 96 }, { "from": "Tyson Kozak", "from_id": 8482896, "to": "Konsta Helenius", "to_id": 8484797, "EV_seconds": 451, "PP_seconds": 1, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "conditional_return_branches": [], "PP_units": "Unconfirmed; actual PP workload retained without inference from roster order", "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 14298, "PP_seconds": 1550, "SH_seconds": 1688 }, "OT_note": "Reference may contain overtime; exact original exposures retained as empirical scenario. No guarantee same penalty/OT time; no season rate pooling with preseason.", "line_combinations": "Official Monday projected lines available FLA/BUF; other teams latest actual skaters as conditional replay, no invented pairings." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": 2026020074, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "BUF", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020074/boxscore", "playerId": 8484145, "name": { "default": "Z. Benson" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:54", "shifts": 23 }, { "event_id": 2026020074, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "BUF", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020074/boxscore", "playerId": 8480064, "name": { "default": "J. Norris" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:33", "shifts": 26 }, { "event_id": 2026020074, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "BUF", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020074/boxscore", "playerId": 8475842, "name": { "default": "S. Carrick" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "08:43", "shifts": 11 }, { "event_id": 2026020074, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "BUF", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020074/boxscore", "playerId": 8479941, "name": { "default": "J. Danforth" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "10:15", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020074, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "BUF", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020074/boxscore", "playerId": 8481522, "name": { "default": "P. Krebs" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "12:49", "shifts": 17 }, { "event_id": 2026020074, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "BUF", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020074/boxscore", "playerId": 8482097, "name": { "default": "J. Quinn" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "20:20", "shifts": 26 }, { "event_id": 2026020074, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "BUF", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020074/boxscore", "playerId": 8479359, "name": { "default": "B. Malenstyn" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "12:11", "shifts": 17 }, { "event_id": 2026020074, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "BUF", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020074/boxscore", "playerId": 8482896, "name": { "default": "T. Kozak" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "07:32", "shifts": 11 }, { "event_id": 2026020074, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "BUF", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020074/boxscore", "playerId": 8480802, "name": { "default": "R. McLeod" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:27", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020074, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "BUF", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020074/boxscore", "playerId": 8479420, "name": { "default": "T. Thompson" }, "position": "C", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 6, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "toi": "19:56", "shifts": 28 }, { "event_id": 2026020074, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "BUF", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020074/boxscore", "playerId": 8483500, "name": { "default": "N. Ostlund" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 5, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:08", "shifts": 21 }, { "event_id": 2026020074, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "BUF", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020074/boxscore", "playerId": 8482659, "name": { "default": "J. Doan" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:16", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020074, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "BUF", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020074/boxscore", "playerId": 8482803, "name": { "default": "O. Zellweger" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:30", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020074, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "BUF", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020074/boxscore", "playerId": 8480807, "name": { "default": "M. Samuelsson" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:09", "shifts": 24 }, { "event_id": 2026020074, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "BUF", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020074/boxscore", "playerId": 8482671, "name": { "default": "O. Power" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "25:06", "shifts": 27 }, { "event_id": 2026020074, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "BUF", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020074/boxscore", "playerId": 8480839, "name": { "default": "R. Dahlin" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "25:42", "shifts": 27 }, { "event_id": 2026020074, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "BUF", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020074/boxscore", "playerId": 8481806, "name": { "default": "L. Crevier" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:07", "shifts": 17 }, { "event_id": 2026020074, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "BUF", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020074/boxscore", "playerId": 8484305, "name": { "default": "Z. Metsa" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "12:38", "shifts": 15 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Official since-July tracker checked; precautionary September-onward both-side ledger retained, offseason changes distinct.", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "version": "event-review-2026-10-12-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-12T05:39:57.160121+00:00", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892485", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 2.86, 3.3112195121951222 ], "Primary": [ 2.968863591628281, 3.369603738448457 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 2.96341, 3.396335 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 2.96341, 3.396335 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 2.86, 3.3112195121951222 ], "Primary": [ 2.968863591628281, 3.369603738448457 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 2.96341, 3.396335 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 2.96341, 3.396335 ] }, "adjusted_score_status": "Unestimated; original scores retained as base, not silently labeled adjusted.", "baseline_exposure": "Registered aggregates do not identify each player reference weight. All player workload variants are sensitivities, not calibrated corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED_ALLOWED: no validated role-controlled run/PPP/goal coefficient", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "football_minus3": 0, "uncertainty": "Projected role is not confirmed lineup. Preserve unknown numerical effect, teammate/opponent confounding and reference exposure.", "collector_source": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\Offensive-Replacement-Tracking\\capture-20261012T053148Z", "price_inputs_used": false, "sources": [ "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/timeonice?isAggregate=false&isGame=true&start=0&limit=100&cayenneExp=gameId%3D2026020074", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season" ], "findings": "Official Monday projection returns Kulich/Helenius while Danforth/Kozak become scratches. Conditional like-for-like forward role transfer conserves EV/PP/SH skater-seconds; center Norris remains. 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"player": "Tyson Kozak", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8481522, "player": "Peyton Krebs", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8483468, "player": "Jiri Kulich", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8479359, "player": "Beck Malenstyn", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8480802, "player": "Ryan McLeod", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8480064, "player": "Josh Norris", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8483500, "player": "Noah 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"ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.2, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 612, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 122.4, "shifts": 123, "shiftsPerGame": 24.6, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Mattias Samuelsson", "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 6061, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1212.2, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.27642 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 6877, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1375.4, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Dahlin", "otTimeOnIce": 141, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 141.0, "playerId": 8480839, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 1072, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 214.4, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 13, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.6, "shifts": 137, "shiftsPerGame": 27.4, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Rasmus Dahlin", "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 7962, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1592.4, "timeOnIcePerShift": 58.11678 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4325, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 865.0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Krebs", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8481522, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 61, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 12.2, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 97, "shiftsPerGame": 19.4, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Peyton Krebs", "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 4386, "timeOnIcePerGame": 877.2, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.21649 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3917, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 783.4, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Crevier", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8481806, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 653, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 130.6, "shifts": 101, "shiftsPerGame": 20.2, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Louis Crevier", "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 4570, "timeOnIcePerGame": 914.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.24752 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4796, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 959.2, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Quinn", "otTimeOnIce": 137, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 137.0, "playerId": 8482097, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 1040, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 208.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 163, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 32.6, "shifts": 119, "shiftsPerGame": 23.8, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Jack Quinn", "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 5999, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1199.8, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.41176 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4129, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 825.8, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Doan", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8482659, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 670, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 134.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 106, "shiftsPerGame": 21.2, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Josh Doan", "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 4799, "timeOnIcePerGame": 959.8, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.27358 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 6703, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1340.6, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Power", "otTimeOnIce": 121, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 121.0, "playerId": 8482671, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 484, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 96.8, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 623, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 124.6, "shifts": 146, "shiftsPerGame": 29.2, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Owen Power", "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 7810, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1562.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 53.49315 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3930, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 982.5, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Zellweger", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8482803, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 59, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 14.75, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 7, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.75, "shifts": 85, "shiftsPerGame": 21.25, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Olen Zellweger", "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 3996, "timeOnIcePerGame": 999.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.01176 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 451, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 451.0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "lastName": "Kozak", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482896, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 1, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 11, "shiftsPerGame": 11.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Tyson Kozak", "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 452, "timeOnIcePerGame": 452.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 41.0909 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 2865, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 716.25, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Kulich", "otTimeOnIce": 89, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 89.0, "playerId": 8483468, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 5, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.25, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 4, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.0, "shifts": 72, "shiftsPerGame": 18.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Jiri Kulich", "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 2874, "timeOnIcePerGame": 718.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 39.91666 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4520, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 904.0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Ostlund", "otTimeOnIce": 61, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 61.0, "playerId": 8483500, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 803, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 160.6, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 134, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 26.8, "shifts": 112, "shiftsPerGame": 22.4, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Noah Ostlund", "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 5457, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1091.4, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.72321 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4412, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 882.4, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Benson", "otTimeOnIce": 57, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 57.0, "playerId": 8484145, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 979, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 195.8, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 429, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 85.8, "shifts": 118, "shiftsPerGame": 23.6, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Zach Benson", "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 5820, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1164.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.32203 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 2856, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 571.2, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Metsa", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8484305, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 641, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 128.2, "shifts": 78, "shiftsPerGame": 15.6, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Zach Metsa", "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 3497, "timeOnIcePerGame": 699.4, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.83333 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 2894, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 723.5, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Helenius", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8484797, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 493, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 123.25, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 74, "shiftsPerGame": 18.5, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Konsta Helenius", "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 3387, "timeOnIcePerGame": 846.75, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.77027 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_WORKLOAD_RECONCILED" } ], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "Florida Panthers at Buffalo Sabres", "market": { "id": "401892485", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892485", "requested_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.183345+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.564047+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": 225.0, "away_line_price": -278.0, "total": 6.5, "under_line": 6.5, "over_price": 110.0, "under_price": -130.0, "home_ml": -108.0, "away_ml": -112.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 6.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.45121951219512235, "combined": 6.1712195121951225, "spread_buffer": -1.0487804878048776, "total_difference": -0.32878048780487745 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.45121951219512235, "combined": 6.1712195121951225, "spread_buffer": -1.0487804878048776, "total_difference": -0.32878048780487745 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.40074014682017634, "combined": 6.338467330076738, "spread_buffer": -1.0992598531798237, "total_difference": -0.16153266992326198 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.40074014682017634, "combined": 6.338467330076738, "spread_buffer": -1.0992598531798237, "total_difference": -0.16153266992326198 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.432925, "combined": 6.359745, "spread_buffer": -1.067075, "total_difference": -0.1402549999999998 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.432925, "combined": 6.359745, "spread_buffer": -1.067075, "total_difference": -0.1402549999999998 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.432925, "combined": 6.359745, "spread_buffer": -1.067075, "total_difference": -0.1402549999999998 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.432925, "combined": 6.359745, "spread_buffer": -1.067075, "total_difference": -0.1402549999999998 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] } } }, { "id": "401914130", "sport": "NBA", "identity": { "id": "401914130", "date": "2026-10-12T20:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "3423", "fullName": "Moda Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Portland", "state": "OR" } }, "away": "134478", "away_name": "London Lions", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "22", "home_name": "Portland Trail Blazers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "No supported baseline to adjust; histories and conditional opportunities are retained as research only.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.69817073170732, "mean_margin_error": 6.306910569105692, "mean_total_error": 21.274390243902435, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No comparable London NBA baseline or registered cross-league conversion" }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 112.57325537018754, 113.99624733329783 ], "adjusted_score": [ 112.57325537018754, 113.99624733329783 ], "conditional_score": [ 112.57325537018754, 113.99624733329783 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2797, "unknown_teams": [ "134478" ], "latest_game": "2026-10-12T01:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "aa90b1c3f9cc2c33b6720a7fa6bc2faf0a752c2f4516b125280a4621fb7efbe4" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.176706670504595, "mean_margin_error": 7.034104665170351, "mean_total_error": 18.4100562470998, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": null, "fallback_warning": "London unknown-team zero-effect fallback; not a validated cross-league forecast." }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "No supported baseline to adjust; histories and conditional opportunities are retained as research only.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "unavailable": "No comparable London Lions NBA baseline or registered cross-league conversion" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 11.200203666666669, "mean_margin_error": 7.310977333333336, "mean_total_error": 21.274390666666665, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No comparable London NBA baseline or registered cross-league conversion" }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "No supported baseline to adjust; histories and conditional opportunities are retained as research only.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "unavailable": "No comparable London Lions NBA baseline or registered cross-league conversion" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 11.200203666666669, "mean_margin_error": 7.310977333333336, "mean_total_error": 21.274390666666665, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No comparable London NBA baseline or registered cross-league conversion" } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Portland Trail Blazers: Sharpe remains absent; Oct7 rotation already excludes him. Camara and the Lillard/Morant backcourt carry the observed starting wing/creation roles, with Holiday/Henderson reserve creation. Jaylen Martin waived per Oct8 league-hosted update; his zero-minute reference excluded from eligible projection. London is a different competition, so no calibrated NBA opponent conversion is asserted. London Lions: Official current EuroCup minutes provide an auditable conditional240-minute reference. Kennedy leads18.0ppg over2games; Evans13.0 and Jones11.5. Retained London25-26 histories and incoming-player former-team bios are separate. No cross-league scoring coefficient, confirmed absence or in-season trade is invented. Complete2024-25 history and actual exhibition participation remain unavailable. No confirmed current absent/materially limited contributor or in-season trade established in official sources. Hence no identified mandatory replacement branch left unresolved; reference rotations remain tracking-only.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NBA preseason rotations are conditional reference allocations, not confirmed minutes.", "reviewer": "Parent reconciliation of independent evidence" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independent arithmetic reviewed current nonfootball outputs; London remains outside comparable NBA history. Classic/Primary provisional; ON/OFF identical registered means. Opportunity scenarios do not supply a validated scoring conversion.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Moda Center; listed 2026-10-12T20:00Z. Cross-league NBA preseason exhibition, London Lions is not an NBA franchise. Official Rose Quarter confirms Oct12 1PM PDT at Moda Center; team announcement verifies international travel. No comparable incumbent NBA score baseline for London. Classic and TU unavailable; Primary unknown-team fallback must not be counted as supported numeric coverage or actionable. London official current EuroCup two-game table and prior2025-26 statistics verified by personnel desk; actual travel date, acclimatization and exhibition minutes remain unverified. No validated cross-league NBA conversion.", "details": { "event_id": "401914130", "sport": "NBA", "away": "London Lions", "home": "Portland Trail Blazers", "start_et": "2026-10-12T16:00:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-12T20:00Z", "venue": { "id": "3423", "fullName": "Moda Center", "address": { "city": "Portland", "state": "OR" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 1, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0.0", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Mon, October 12th at 4:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/12 - 4:00 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/scoreboard?dates=20261012&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T05:33:49.648158+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://www.rosequarter.com/trail-blazers/trail-blazers-vs-london-lions-oct-12-2026", "https://www.thelondonlions.com/news/london-lions-announce-sonacle-as-a-new-supporting-partner", "https://www.thelondonlions.com/stats" ], "context": [ "Cross-league NBA preseason exhibition, London Lions is not an NBA franchise.", "Official Rose Quarter confirms Oct12 1PM PDT at Moda Center; team announcement verifies international travel.", "No comparable incumbent NBA score baseline for London. Classic and TU unavailable; Primary unknown-team fallback must not be counted as supported numeric coverage or actionable.", "London official current EuroCup two-game table and prior2025-26 statistics verified by personnel desk; actual travel date, acclimatization and exhibition minutes remain unverified. No validated cross-league NBA conversion." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "London Lions", "previous_game": null, "days_between_start_dates": null, "interpretation": "Calendar gap from last retained completed game, not verified flight/rest hours. No automatic rest/travel score adjustment.", "limitation": "Current two-game EuroCup and prior2025-26 stats verified separately by personnel desk; no comparable NBA historical sample. Actual travel/acclimatization and exhibition minutes unresolved." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "previous_game": { "id": "401914129", "date": "2026-10-08T02:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "3423", "fullName": "Moda Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Portland", "state": "OR" } }, "away": "9", "away_name": "Golden State Warriors", "away_score": 118.0, "home": "22", "home_name": "Portland Trail Blazers", "home_score": 123.0, "day": 20734.083333333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 5, "interpretation": "Calendar gap from last retained completed game, not verified flight/rest hours. No automatic rest/travel score adjustment.", "limitation": null } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct weather adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "stage_label": "Preseason / tracking only", "coverage_exception": "UNSUPPORTED NON-NBA OPPONENT: no validated cross-league conversion; do not fabricate scores.", "cross_desk_personnel_evidence": "offensive/london-review.json" }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor arena; no direct weather adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct weather adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/scoreboard?dates=20261012&limit=1000", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914129", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/22/roster?season=2027", "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3995/stats?seasontype=2", "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4066211/stats?seasontype=2", "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4066399/stats?seasontype=2", "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4279888/stats?seasontype=2", "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4431736/stats?seasontype=2", "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4578893/stats?seasontype=2", "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4592435/stats?seasontype=2", "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4593043/stats?seasontype=2", "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4610139/stats?seasontype=2", "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4683021/stats?seasontype=2", "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4683678/stats?seasontype=2", "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4684737/stats?seasontype=2", "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4703889/stats?seasontype=2", "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4706557/stats?seasontype=2", "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4914336/stats?seasontype=2", "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/5081727/stats?seasontype=2", "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/5105565/stats?seasontype=2", "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/5217746/stats?seasontype=2", "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/6606/stats?seasontype=2", "https://www.nba.com/players/transactions", "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612757/blazers", "https://www.rosequarter.com/trail-blazers/trail-blazers-vs-london-lions-oct-12-2026", "https://www.thelondonlions.com/news/london-lions-announce-sonacle-as-a-new-supporting-partner", "https://www.thelondonlions.com/news/london-secure-first-eurocup-win-with-89-77-victory-over-tenerife-46mqj", "https://www.thelondonlions.com/player/devante-jones", "https://www.thelondonlions.com/player/keenan-evans", "https://www.thelondonlions.com/player/thomas-kennedy", "https://www.thelondonlions.com/stats", "https://www.thelondonlions.com/team/men/2026-27" ], "tu": null, "football_review": null, "football_supplement": null, "offensive_review": [ { "sport": "NBA", "event_id": "401914130", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "review_status": "CONDITIONAL_OPPORTUNITY_REVIEW_COMPLETE", "incumbent_id": null, "replacement_ids": null, "expected_opportunities": { "rotation": [ { "player_id": "4431736", "player": "Toumani Camara", "reference_starter": true, "reference_minutes": 19.0, "conditional_minutes": 19.07949790794979, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.029411764705882353, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS_proxy": 0.6443298969072165 }, { "player_id": "4683021", "player": "Deni Avdija", "reference_starter": true, "reference_minutes": 21.0, "conditional_minutes": 21.08786610878661, "conditional_FGA": 13.0, "conditional_FTA": 4.0, "conditional_3PA": 6.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.058823529411764705, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.8076923076923077, "reference_TS_proxy": 0.7791327913279132 }, { "player_id": "5105565", "player": "Donovan Clingan", "reference_starter": true, "reference_minutes": 20.0, "conditional_minutes": 20.0836820083682, "conditional_FGA": 7.0, "conditional_FTA": 1.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.058823529411764705, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.14285714285714285, "reference_TS_proxy": 0.20161290322580644 }, { "player_id": "6606", "player": "Damian Lillard", "reference_starter": true, "reference_minutes": 19.0, "conditional_minutes": 19.07949790794979, "conditional_FGA": 11.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 8.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.029411764705882353, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5909090909090909, "reference_TS_proxy": 0.6313131313131313 }, { "player_id": "4279888", "player": "Ja Morant", "reference_starter": true, "reference_minutes": 19.0, "conditional_minutes": 19.07949790794979, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.14705882352941177, "reference_AST": 5.0, "reference_TO": 4.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.375, "reference_TS_proxy": 0.4504504504504504 }, { "player_id": "4593043", "player": "John Tonje", "reference_starter": false, "reference_minutes": 3.0, "conditional_minutes": 3.01255230125523, "conditional_FGA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.029411764705882353, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": null, "reference_TS_proxy": null }, { "player_id": "4610139", "player": "Jeremy Sochan", "reference_starter": false, "reference_minutes": 9.0, "conditional_minutes": 9.03765690376569, "conditional_FGA": 6.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.8333333333333334, "reference_TS_proxy": 0.8333333333333334 }, { "player_id": "4066211", "player": "Robert Williams III", "reference_starter": false, "reference_minutes": 14.0, "conditional_minutes": 14.05857740585774, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.029411764705882353, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 4.0, "reference_eFG": 0.8, "reference_TS_proxy": 0.8 }, { "player_id": "4066399", "player": "Micah Potter", "reference_starter": false, "reference_minutes": 13.0, "conditional_minutes": 13.05439330543933, "conditional_FGA": 6.0, "conditional_FTA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.029411764705882353, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 3.0, "reference_eFG": 0.8333333333333334, "reference_TS_proxy": 0.8879781420765027 }, { "player_id": "4592435", "player": "Branden Carlson", "reference_starter": false, "reference_minutes": 9.0, "conditional_minutes": 9.03765690376569, "conditional_FGA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 3.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS_proxy": 0.5 }, { "player_id": "5217746", "player": "Yang Hansen", "reference_starter": false, "reference_minutes": 12.0, "conditional_minutes": 12.05020920502092, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.11764705882352941, "reference_AST": 4.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6666666666666666, "reference_TS_proxy": 0.7731958762886598 }, { "player_id": "3995", "player": "Jrue Holiday", "reference_starter": false, "reference_minutes": 19.0, "conditional_minutes": 19.07949790794979, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.14705882352941177, "reference_AST": 5.0, "reference_TO": 3.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3125, "reference_TS_proxy": 0.3125 }, { "player_id": "4578893", "player": "Vit Krejci", "reference_starter": false, "reference_minutes": 14.0, "conditional_minutes": 14.05857740585774, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_3PA": 5.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.08823529411764706, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3, "reference_TS_proxy": 0.3 }, { "player_id": "4683678", "player": "Scoot Henderson", "reference_starter": false, "reference_minutes": 17.0, "conditional_minutes": 17.07112970711297, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.08823529411764706, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 3.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4375, "reference_TS_proxy": 0.5067567567567567 }, { "player_id": "4703889", "player": "Jayson Kent", "reference_starter": false, "reference_minutes": 3.0, "conditional_minutes": 3.01255230125523, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.029411764705882353, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.75, "reference_TS_proxy": 0.75 }, { "player_id": "4706557", "player": "Chris Youngblood", "reference_starter": false, "reference_minutes": 12.0, "conditional_minutes": 12.05020920502092, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.08823529411764706, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 3.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.8, "reference_TS_proxy": 0.6802721088435374 }, { "player_id": "5081727", "player": "Sidy Cissoko", "reference_starter": false, "reference_minutes": 16.0, "conditional_minutes": 16.06694560669456, "conditional_FGA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 1.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.029411764705882353, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS_proxy": 0.0 } ], "conditional_team_minutes": 240.0, "reference_team_minutes": 239.0, "conditional_team_FGA": 95.0, "conditional_team_FTA": 21.0, "conditional_team_3PA": 44.0, "calculation": "Reference eligible minutes normalized to240; fixed reference team FGA/3PA/FTA redistributed proportional to surviving observed attempts. Creation tracked as share of observed assists, never added to scorer points. This does not calibrate PPP.", "excluded_players": [ "Jaylen Martin" ], "scenario": "Latest actual preseason roles replay, after source-supported roster exclusions", "status": "ANALYST CONDITIONAL 240 MINUTE SCENARIO", "alternate_actual_preseason_reference_branches": [], "return_limits": "Alternative observed rotations are scenarios, not announced participation. A player without any observed current-preseason role has no invented return-minute forecast." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": "401914129", "date": "2026-10-08T02:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "player_id": "4431736", "player": "Toumani Camara", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914129", "MIN": "19", "PTS": "5", "FG": "1-3", "OREB": "0", "3PT": "1-3", "TO": "0", "FT": "2-2", "AST": "1" }, { "event_id": "401914129", "date": "2026-10-08T02:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "player_id": "4683021", "player": "Deni Avdija", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914129", "MIN": "21", "PTS": "23", "FG": "9-13", "OREB": "1", "3PT": "3-6", "TO": "2", "FT": "2-4", "AST": "2" }, { "event_id": "401914129", "date": 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false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914129", "MIN": "19", "PTS": "8", "FG": "3-8", "OREB": "2", "3PT": "0-1", "TO": "4", "FT": "2-2", "AST": "5" }, { "event_id": "401914129", "date": "2026-10-08T02:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "player_id": "4593043", "player": "John Tonje", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914129", "MIN": "3", "PTS": "0", "FG": "0-0", "OREB": "0", "3PT": "0-0", "TO": "0", "FT": "0-0", "AST": "1" }, { "event_id": "401914129", "date": "2026-10-08T02:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "player_id": "4610139", "player": "Jeremy Sochan", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914129", "MIN": "9", "PTS": "10", "FG": "4-6", "OREB": "0", "3PT": "2-2", "TO": "0", "FT": "0-0", "AST": "0" }, { "event_id": "401914129", "date": "2026-10-08T02:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "player_id": "4066211", "player": "Robert Williams III", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914129", "MIN": "14", "PTS": "8", "FG": "4-5", "OREB": "4", "3PT": "0-1", "TO": "1", "FT": "0-0", "AST": "1" }, { "event_id": "401914129", "date": "2026-10-08T02:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "player_id": "4066399", "player": "Micah Potter", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914129", "MIN": "13", "PTS": "13", "FG": "4-6", "OREB": "3", "3PT": "2-4", "TO": "0", "FT": "3-3", "AST": "1" }, { "event_id": "401914129", "date": "2026-10-08T02:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": 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"player_id": "4683678", "player": "Scoot Henderson", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914129", "MIN": "17", "PTS": "9", "FG": "3-8", "OREB": "1", "3PT": "1-3", "TO": "3", "FT": "2-2", "AST": "3" }, { "event_id": "401914129", "date": "2026-10-08T02:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "player_id": "4703889", "player": "Jayson Kent", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914129", "MIN": "3", "PTS": "3", "FG": "1-2", "OREB": "0", "3PT": "1-2", "TO": "0", "FT": "0-0", "AST": "1" }, { "event_id": "401914129", "date": "2026-10-08T02:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "player_id": "4706557", "player": "Chris Youngblood", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914129", "MIN": "12", "PTS": "8", "FG": "3-5", "OREB": "0", "3PT": "2-3", "TO": "3", "FT": "0-2", "AST": "3" }, { "event_id": "401914129", "date": "2026-10-08T02:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "player_id": "5081727", "player": "Sidy Cissoko", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914129", "MIN": "16", "PTS": "0", "FG": "0-1", "OREB": "0", "3PT": "0-0", "TO": "2", "FT": "0-1", "AST": "1" }, { "event_id": "401914129", "date": "2026-10-08T02:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "player_id": "4684737", "player": "Jaylen Martin", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914129" }, { "event_id": "401914129", "date": "2026-10-08T02:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "player_id": "4914336", "player": "Shaedon Sharpe", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914129" } ], "reference_date": "2026-10-08T02:00Z", "comparison_player_ids": [ "3995", "4066211", "4066399", "4279888", "4431736", "4578893", "4592435", "4593043", "4610139", "4683021", "4683678", "4684737", "4703889", "4706557", "4914336", "5081727", "5105565", "5217746", "6606" ], "findings": "Sharpe remains absent; Oct7 rotation already excludes him. Camara and the Lillard/Morant backcourt carry the observed starting wing/creation roles, with Holiday/Henderson reserve creation. Jaylen Martin waived per Oct8 league-hosted update; his zero-minute reference excluded from eligible projection. London is a different competition, so no calibrated NBA opponent conversion is asserted.", "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_240_MINUTES_SHOTS_CREATION_RECONCILED", "two_season_coverage": [ { "player_id": "4683021", "player": "Deni Avdija", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4683021", "player": "Deni Avdija", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4431736", "player": "Toumani Camara", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4431736", "player": "Toumani Camara", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4592435", "player": "Branden Carlson", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4592435", "player": "Branden Carlson", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "5081727", "player": "Sidy Cissoko", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "5081727", "player": "Sidy Cissoko", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "5105565", "player": "Donovan Clingan", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "5105565", "player": "Donovan Clingan", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "5217746", "player": "Yang Hansen", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "NO_RETURNED_NBA_SEASON_NOT_ZERO" }, { "player_id": "5217746", "player": "Yang Hansen", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4683678", "player": "Scoot Henderson", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4683678", "player": "Scoot Henderson", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "3995", "player": "Jrue Holiday", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "3995", "player": "Jrue Holiday", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4703889", "player": "Jayson Kent", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "NO_RETURNED_NBA_SEASON_NOT_ZERO" }, { "player_id": "4703889", "player": "Jayson Kent", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4578893", "player": "Vit Krejci", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4578893", "player": "Vit Krejci", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "6606", "player": "Damian Lillard", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "6606", "player": "Damian Lillard", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "NO_RETURNED_NBA_SEASON_NOT_ZERO" }, { "player_id": "4684737", "player": "Jaylen Martin", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4684737", "player": "Jaylen Martin", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "NO_RETURNED_NBA_SEASON_NOT_ZERO" }, { "player_id": "4279888", "player": "Ja Morant", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4279888", "player": "Ja Morant", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4066399", "player": "Micah Potter", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4066399", "player": "Micah Potter", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4914336", "player": "Shaedon Sharpe", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4914336", "player": "Shaedon Sharpe", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4610139", "player": "Jeremy Sochan", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4610139", "player": "Jeremy Sochan", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4593043", "player": "John Tonje", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "NO_RETURNED_NBA_SEASON_NOT_ZERO" }, { "player_id": "4593043", "player": "John Tonje", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4066211", "player": "Robert Williams III", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4066211", "player": "Robert Williams III", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4706557", "player": "Chris Youngblood", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "NO_RETURNED_NBA_SEASON_NOT_ZERO" }, { "player_id": "4706557", "player": "Chris Youngblood", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" } ] }, { "sport": "NBA", "event_id": "401914130", "team": "London Lions", "review_status": "CONDITIONAL_NO_ESTABLISHED_REPLACEMENT_TRIGGER_REVIEWED", "incumbent_id": null, "replacement_ids": null, "expected_opportunities": { "status": "ANALYST CONDITIONAL no-change reference, not coach commitment", "scenario": "Same current EuroCup participants; normalize workload only from40to48minutes", "rotation": [ { "player": "THOMAS KENNEDY", "player_id": null, "conditional_minutes": 27.72, "reference_minutes": 23.1, "reference_starts": 2.0, "reference_games": 2.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.05405405405405406, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 2.5, "conditional_FGA": null, "conditional_3PA": null, "conditional_FTA": null }, { "player": "KEENAN EVANS", "player_id": null, "conditional_minutes": 28.68, "reference_minutes": 23.9, "reference_starts": 2.0, "reference_games": 2.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.16216216216216217, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 0.5, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": null, "conditional_3PA": null, "conditional_FTA": null }, { "player": "JOEL SCOTT", "player_id": null, "conditional_minutes": 33.36, "reference_minutes": 27.8, "reference_starts": 2.0, "reference_games": 2.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.08108108108108109, "reference_AST": 1.5, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "conditional_FGA": null, "conditional_3PA": null, "conditional_FTA": null }, { "player": "DEVANTE JONES", "player_id": null, "conditional_minutes": 21.36, "reference_minutes": 17.8, "reference_starts": 1.0, "reference_games": 2.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.05405405405405406, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 2.5, "reference_OREB": 0.5, "conditional_FGA": null, "conditional_3PA": null, "conditional_FTA": null }, { "player": "TARIK PHILLIP", "player_id": null, "conditional_minutes": 27.6, "reference_minutes": 23.0, "reference_starts": 1.0, "reference_games": 2.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.24324324324324326, "reference_AST": 4.5, "reference_TO": 2.5, "reference_OREB": 0.5, "conditional_FGA": null, "conditional_3PA": null, "conditional_FTA": null }, { "player": "DEANE WILLIAMS", "player_id": null, "conditional_minutes": 22.56, "reference_minutes": 18.8, "reference_starts": 0.0, "reference_games": 2.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.05405405405405406, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "conditional_FGA": null, "conditional_3PA": null, "conditional_FTA": null }, { "player": "MAXWELL LEWIS III", "player_id": null, "conditional_minutes": 14.04, "reference_minutes": 11.7, "reference_starts": 1.0, "reference_games": 2.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": null, "conditional_3PA": null, "conditional_FTA": null }, { "player": "MO SOLUADE", "player_id": null, "conditional_minutes": 24.48, "reference_minutes": 20.4, "reference_starts": 1.0, "reference_games": 2.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.24324324324324326, "reference_AST": 4.5, "reference_TO": 2.5, "reference_OREB": 1.5, "conditional_FGA": null, "conditional_3PA": null, "conditional_FTA": null }, { "player": "ETHAN PRICE", "player_id": null, "conditional_minutes": 12.36, "reference_minutes": 10.3, "reference_starts": 0.0, "reference_games": 2.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.02702702702702703, "reference_AST": 0.5, "reference_TO": 1.5, "reference_OREB": 0.5, "conditional_FGA": null, "conditional_3PA": null, "conditional_FTA": null }, { "player": "LANDRIUS HORTON", "player_id": null, "conditional_minutes": 27.84, "reference_minutes": 23.2, "reference_starts": 0.0, "reference_games": 2.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.08108108108108109, "reference_AST": 1.5, "reference_TO": 0.5, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "conditional_FGA": null, "conditional_3PA": null, "conditional_FTA": null } ], "conditional_team_minutes": 240.0, "calculation": "Explicit analyst reference: two current EuroCup games total200 player-minutes, scaled1.2 to240 solely to conserve48-minute exhibition workload. This is not a competition scoring conversion or a confirmed NBA rotation. Evans12 branch is hypothetical workload test, not injury evidence.", "hypothetical_Evans_rest": { "THOMAS KENNEDY": 27.72, "KEENAN EVANS": 12, "JOEL SCOTT": 33.36, "DEVANTE JONES": 29.7, "TARIK PHILLIP": 32.604, "DEANE WILLIAMS": 22.56, "MAXWELL LEWIS III": 14.04, "MO SOLUADE": 27.816000000000003, "ETHAN PRICE": 12.36, "LANDRIUS HORTON": 27.84 }, "hypothetical_reallocation": "Observed current assist rate4.5 each Phillip/Soluade versus Evans3.0, Jones1.0. Hypothetical Evans reduction redistributes50% Jones,30% Phillip,20% Soluade; shares are analyst assumption. Shot attempts/TS/eFG unavailable; no fabricated FGA/PPP or assist-point additive adjustment.", "not_established_trigger": "No current injury/rest limitation established. Evans12min test is not claimed as missing-player forecast.", "unknown_fields": "Complete two-season professional histories/FGA/3PA/FTA unreturned; retained unknown, not zero. No per-shot or cross-competition scoring conversion." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "player": "THOMAS KENNEDY", "GP": 2.0, "GS": 2.0, "MIN": 23.1, "PTS": 18.0, "OR": 2.5, "DR": 3.0, "REB": 5.5, "AST": 1.0, "STL": 0.0, "BLK": 0.0, "TO": 0.0, "PF": 3.0, "PIR": 21.5, "season": "2026-27", "competition": "EuroCup", "team": "London Lions" }, { "player": "KEENAN EVANS", "GP": 2.0, "GS": 2.0, "MIN": 23.9, "PTS": 13.0, "OR": 0.0, "DR": 0.5, "REB": 0.5, "AST": 3.0, "STL": 0.5, "BLK": 0.0, "TO": 0.5, "PF": 2.0, "PIR": 12.5, "season": "2026-27", "competition": "EuroCup", "team": "London Lions" }, { "player": "JOEL SCOTT", "GP": 2.0, "GS": 2.0, "MIN": 27.8, "PTS": 12.5, "OR": 2.0, "DR": 2.0, "REB": 4.0, "AST": 1.5, "STL": 1.5, "BLK": 0.0, "TO": 1.0, "PF": 2.5, "PIR": 18.5, "season": "2026-27", "competition": "EuroCup", "team": "London Lions" }, { "player": "DEVANTE JONES", "GP": 2.0, "GS": 1.0, "MIN": 17.8, "PTS": 11.5, "OR": 0.5, "DR": 1.5, "REB": 2.0, "AST": 1.0, "STL": 0.5, "BLK": 0.0, "TO": 2.5, "PF": 1.5, "PIR": 10.0, "season": "2026-27", "competition": "EuroCup", "team": "London Lions" }, { "player": "TARIK PHILLIP", "GP": 2.0, "GS": 1.0, "MIN": 23.0, "PTS": 7.5, "OR": 0.5, "DR": 2.0, "REB": 2.5, "AST": 4.5, "STL": 1.5, "BLK": 0.5, "TO": 2.5, "PF": 2.5, "PIR": 8.5, "season": "2026-27", "competition": "EuroCup", "team": "London Lions" }, { "player": "DEANE WILLIAMS", "GP": 2.0, "GS": 0.0, "MIN": 18.8, "PTS": 5.0, "OR": 2.0, "DR": 1.5, "REB": 3.5, "AST": 1.0, "STL": 1.0, "BLK": 1.5, "TO": 0.0, "PF": 3.5, "PIR": 5.0, "season": "2026-27", "competition": "EuroCup", "team": "London Lions" }, { "player": "MAXWELL LEWIS III", "GP": 2.0, "GS": 1.0, "MIN": 11.7, "PTS": 4.0, "OR": 0.0, "DR": 2.5, "REB": 2.5, "AST": 0.0, "STL": 1.0, "BLK": 0.0, "TO": 0.0, "PF": 1.0, "PIR": 4.0, "season": "2026-27", "competition": "EuroCup", "team": "London Lions" }, { "player": "MO SOLUADE", "GP": 2.0, "GS": 1.0, "MIN": 20.4, "PTS": 3.5, "OR": 1.5, "DR": 1.5, "REB": 3.0, "AST": 4.5, "STL": 1.0, "BLK": 0.0, "TO": 2.5, "PF": 1.0, "PIR": 6.5, "season": "2026-27", "competition": "EuroCup", "team": "London Lions" }, { "player": "ETHAN PRICE", "GP": 2.0, "GS": 0.0, "MIN": 10.3, "PTS": 3.0, "OR": 0.5, "DR": 2.0, "REB": 2.5, "AST": 0.5, "STL": 0.0, "BLK": 0.5, "TO": 1.5, "PF": 3.0, "PIR": 0.5, "season": "2026-27", "competition": "EuroCup", "team": "London Lions" }, { "player": "LANDRIUS HORTON", "GP": 2.0, "GS": 0.0, "MIN": 23.2, "PTS": 2.0, "OR": 2.0, "DR": 1.0, "REB": 3.0, "AST": 1.5, "STL": 1.0, "BLK": 0.0, "TO": 0.5, "PF": 1.5, "PIR": 1.5, "season": "2026-27", "competition": "EuroCup", "team": "London Lions" } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Official current roster/bios reviewed; incoming loan/signings before season are not invented in-season trades.", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "points", "adjustment_units": "points", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "version": "event-review-2026-10-12-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-12T05:39:57.160121+00:00", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401914130", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": [ 112.57325537018754, 113.99624733329783 ], "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": null, "Primary": [ 112.57325537018754, 113.99624733329783 ], "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "Unestimated; original scores retained as base, not silently labeled adjusted.", "baseline_exposure": "Registered aggregates do not identify each player reference weight. All player workload variants are sensitivities, not calibrated corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED_ALLOWED: no validated role-controlled run/PPP/goal coefficient", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_NO_CROSS_LEAGUE_SCORING_CONVERSION", "football_minus3": 0, "uncertainty": "Projected role is not confirmed lineup. Preserve unknown numerical effect, teammate/opponent confounding and reference exposure.", "collector_source": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\Offensive-Replacement-Tracking\\capture-20261012T053148Z", "price_inputs_used": false, "sources": [ "https://www.thelondonlions.com/team/men/2026-27", "https://www.thelondonlions.com/news/london-secure-first-eurocup-win-with-89-77-victory-over-tenerife-46mqj", "https://www.thelondonlions.com/stats", "https://www.thelondonlions.com/player/keenan-evans", "https://www.thelondonlions.com/player/devante-jones", "https://www.thelondonlions.com/player/thomas-kennedy" ], "findings": "Official current EuroCup minutes provide an auditable conditional240-minute reference. Kennedy leads18.0ppg over2games; Evans13.0 and Jones11.5. Retained London25-26 histories and incoming-player former-team bios are separate. No cross-league scoring coefficient, confirmed absence or in-season trade is invented. Complete2024-25 history and actual exhibition participation remain unavailable. No confirmed current absent/materially limited contributor or in-season trade established in official sources. Hence no identified mandatory replacement branch left unresolved; reference rotations remain tracking-only.", "reference_date": "Current2026-27 EuroCup two-game average throughOct6", "two_season_comparison_rows": { "2025-26": [ { "player": "KAMERON MCGUSTY", "GP": 10.0, "GS": 10.0, "MIN": 29.5, "PTS": 15.0, "OR": 0.6, "DR": 2.7, "REB": 3.3, "AST": 3.6, "STL": 1.4, "BLK": 0.0, "TO": 1.9, "PF": 2.2, "PIR": 15.7, "season": "2025-26", "competition": "EuroCup", "team": "London Lions" }, { "player": "SHAVAR REYNOLDS JR", "GP": 9.0, "GS": 8.0, "MIN": 27.6, "PTS": 14.0, "OR": 1.1, "DR": 1.4, "REB": 2.6, "AST": 3.9, "STL": 1.0, "BLK": 0.0, "TO": 1.8, "PF": 2.7, "PIR": 15.8, "season": "2025-26", "competition": "EuroCup", "team": "London Lions" }, { "player": "JOEL SCOTT", "GP": 8.0, "GS": 8.0, "MIN": 26.3, "PTS": 12.5, "OR": 2.2, "DR": 3.1, "REB": 5.4, "AST": 1.5, "STL": 0.8, "BLK": 0.1, "TO": 1.5, "PF": 3.4, "PIR": 14.0, "season": "2025-26", "competition": "EuroCup", "team": "London Lions" }, { "player": "TARIK PHILLIP", "GP": 18.0, "GS": 5.0, "MIN": 26.0, "PTS": 12.2, "OR": 0.4, "DR": 3.1, "REB": 3.5, "AST": 4.0, "STL": 1.2, "BLK": 0.1, "TO": 3.0, "PF": 2.4, "PIR": 14.4, "season": "2025-26", "competition": "EuroCup", "team": "London Lions" }, { "player": "CHAUNDEE BROWN JR", "GP": 5.0, "GS": 4.0, "MIN": 25.0, "PTS": 10.0, "OR": 1.0, "DR": 3.4, "REB": 4.4, "AST": 0.4, "STL": 0.4, "BLK": 0.0, "TO": 1.0, "PF": 2.6, "PIR": 9.6, "season": "2025-26", "competition": "EuroCup", "team": "London Lions" }, { "player": "JOHNATHAN WILLIAMS", "GP": 13.0, "GS": 11.0, "MIN": 27.3, "PTS": 8.7, "OR": 2.2, "DR": 3.4, "REB": 5.6, "AST": 1.5, "STL": 0.7, "BLK": 0.4, "TO": 2.0, "PF": 2.7, "PIR": 10.6, "season": "2025-26", "competition": "EuroCup", "team": "London Lions" }, { "player": "DEANE WILLIAMS", "GP": 18.0, "GS": 8.0, "MIN": 23.2, "PTS": 8.4, "OR": 1.2, "DR": 3.0, "REB": 4.2, "AST": 1.7, "STL": 0.8, "BLK": 1.0, "TO": 1.6, "PF": 3.1, "PIR": 8.8, "season": "2025-26", "competition": "EuroCup", "team": "London Lions" }, { "player": "KAROLIS LUKOSIUNAS", "GP": 17.0, "GS": 4.0, "MIN": 17.9, "PTS": 6.0, "OR": 0.6, "DR": 1.1, "REB": 1.7, "AST": 0.9, "STL": 0.9, "BLK": 0.0, "TO": 0.6, "PF": 2.4, "PIR": 4.0, "season": "2025-26", "competition": "EuroCup", "team": "London Lions" }, { "player": "ETHAN PRICE", "GP": 16.0, "GS": 5.0, "MIN": 13.6, "PTS": 5.6, "OR": 0.9, "DR": 2.0, "REB": 2.9, "AST": 0.6, "STL": 0.2, "BLK": 0.4, "TO": 0.8, "PF": 2.5, "PIR": 5.5, "season": "2025-26", "competition": "EuroCup", "team": "London Lions" }, { "player": "CHASSON RANDLE", "GP": 9.0, "GS": 1.0, "MIN": 13.1, "PTS": 4.3, "OR": 0.2, "DR": 0.8, "REB": 1.0, "AST": 0.7, "STL": 0.1, "BLK": 0.0, "TO": 1.1, "PF": 2.3, "PIR": 0.9, "season": "2025-26", "competition": "EuroCup", "team": "London Lions" }, { "player": "AARYN RAI", "GP": 18.0, "GS": 9.0, "MIN": 20.7, "PTS": 4.3, "OR": 1.2, "DR": 1.9, "REB": 3.1, "AST": 1.1, "STL": 0.5, "BLK": 0.1, "TO": 0.9, "PF": 2.2, "PIR": 4.7, "season": "2025-26", "competition": "EuroCup", "team": "London Lions" }, { "player": "RYAN MIKESELL", "GP": 5.0, "GS": 4.0, "MIN": 12.3, "PTS": 4.0, "OR": 0.4, "DR": 1.4, "REB": 1.8, "AST": 0.2, "STL": 0.6, "BLK": 0.0, "TO": 0.8, "PF": 2.4, "PIR": 1.0, "season": "2025-26", "competition": "EuroCup", "team": "London Lions" }, { "player": "AMIN ADAMU", "GP": 18.0, "GS": 11.0, "MIN": 12.0, "PTS": 3.9, "OR": 0.2, "DR": 1.2, "REB": 1.4, "AST": 0.8, "STL": 0.3, "BLK": 0.0, "TO": 1.5, "PF": 1.6, "PIR": 1.3, "season": "2025-26", "competition": "EuroCup", "team": "London Lions" }, { "player": "CIARAN SANDY", "GP": 8.0, "GS": 0.0, "MIN": 6.2, "PTS": 2.2, "OR": 0.2, "DR": 0.6, "REB": 0.9, "AST": 0.0, "STL": 0.0, "BLK": 0.2, "TO": 0.2, "PF": 0.9, "PIR": 1.9, "season": "2025-26", "competition": "EuroCup", "team": "London Lions" }, { "player": "OVIE SOKO", "GP": 1.0, "GS": 0.0, "MIN": 8.3, "PTS": 2.0, "OR": 1.0, "DR": 1.0, "REB": 2.0, "AST": 0.0, "STL": 0.0, "BLK": 0.0, "TO": 2.0, "PF": 4.0, "PIR": -2.0, "season": "2025-26", "competition": "EuroCup", "team": "London Lions" }, { "player": "MO SOLUADE", "GP": 8.0, "GS": 2.0, "MIN": 13.6, "PTS": 1.6, "OR": 0.4, "DR": 1.1, "REB": 1.5, "AST": 0.9, "STL": 0.5, "BLK": 0.1, "TO": 1.0, "PF": 1.4, "PIR": 1.2, "season": "2025-26", "competition": "EuroCup", "team": "London Lions" }, { "player": "MATTHEW GOODWIN", "GP": 3.0, "GS": 0.0, "MIN": 3.1, "PTS": 1.0, "OR": 0.0, "DR": 0.0, "REB": 0.0, "AST": 0.0, "STL": 0.0, "BLK": 0.0, "TO": 0.0, "PF": 0.3, "PIR": 0.7, "season": "2025-26", "competition": "EuroCup", "team": "London Lions" }, { "player": "NIGEL HAWKINS", "GP": 5.0, "GS": 0.0, "MIN": 8.2, "PTS": 0.8, "OR": 0.6, "DR": 0.6, "REB": 1.2, "AST": 0.6, "STL": 0.2, "BLK": 0.0, "TO": 0.4, "PF": 2.2, "PIR": -0.8, "season": "2025-26", "competition": "EuroCup", "team": "London Lions" } ], "2024-25": { "status": "NOT AVAILABLE in official club selector; targeted EuroLeague search did not recover complete current-roster histories; unknown not zero" } }, "current_season_separate": [ { "player": "THOMAS KENNEDY", "GP": 2.0, "GS": 2.0, "MIN": 23.1, "PTS": 18.0, "OR": 2.5, "DR": 3.0, "REB": 5.5, "AST": 1.0, "STL": 0.0, "BLK": 0.0, "TO": 0.0, "PF": 3.0, "PIR": 21.5, "season": "2026-27", "competition": "EuroCup", "team": "London Lions" }, { "player": "KEENAN EVANS", "GP": 2.0, "GS": 2.0, "MIN": 23.9, "PTS": 13.0, "OR": 0.0, "DR": 0.5, "REB": 0.5, "AST": 3.0, "STL": 0.5, "BLK": 0.0, "TO": 0.5, "PF": 2.0, "PIR": 12.5, "season": "2026-27", "competition": "EuroCup", "team": "London Lions" }, { "player": "JOEL SCOTT", "GP": 2.0, "GS": 2.0, "MIN": 27.8, "PTS": 12.5, "OR": 2.0, "DR": 2.0, "REB": 4.0, "AST": 1.5, "STL": 1.5, "BLK": 0.0, "TO": 1.0, "PF": 2.5, "PIR": 18.5, "season": "2026-27", "competition": "EuroCup", "team": "London Lions" }, { "player": "DEVANTE JONES", "GP": 2.0, "GS": 1.0, "MIN": 17.8, "PTS": 11.5, "OR": 0.5, "DR": 1.5, "REB": 2.0, "AST": 1.0, "STL": 0.5, "BLK": 0.0, "TO": 2.5, "PF": 1.5, "PIR": 10.0, "season": "2026-27", "competition": "EuroCup", "team": "London Lions" }, { "player": "TARIK PHILLIP", "GP": 2.0, "GS": 1.0, "MIN": 23.0, "PTS": 7.5, "OR": 0.5, "DR": 2.0, "REB": 2.5, "AST": 4.5, "STL": 1.5, "BLK": 0.5, "TO": 2.5, "PF": 2.5, "PIR": 8.5, "season": "2026-27", "competition": "EuroCup", "team": "London Lions" }, { "player": "DEANE WILLIAMS", "GP": 2.0, "GS": 0.0, "MIN": 18.8, "PTS": 5.0, "OR": 2.0, "DR": 1.5, "REB": 3.5, "AST": 1.0, "STL": 1.0, "BLK": 1.5, "TO": 0.0, "PF": 3.5, "PIR": 5.0, "season": "2026-27", "competition": "EuroCup", "team": "London Lions" }, { "player": "MAXWELL LEWIS III", "GP": 2.0, "GS": 1.0, "MIN": 11.7, "PTS": 4.0, "OR": 0.0, "DR": 2.5, "REB": 2.5, "AST": 0.0, "STL": 1.0, "BLK": 0.0, "TO": 0.0, "PF": 1.0, "PIR": 4.0, "season": "2026-27", "competition": "EuroCup", "team": "London Lions" }, { "player": "MO SOLUADE", "GP": 2.0, "GS": 1.0, "MIN": 20.4, "PTS": 3.5, "OR": 1.5, "DR": 1.5, "REB": 3.0, "AST": 4.5, "STL": 1.0, "BLK": 0.0, "TO": 2.5, "PF": 1.0, "PIR": 6.5, "season": "2026-27", "competition": "EuroCup", "team": "London Lions" }, { "player": "ETHAN PRICE", "GP": 2.0, "GS": 0.0, "MIN": 10.3, "PTS": 3.0, "OR": 0.5, "DR": 2.0, "REB": 2.5, "AST": 0.5, "STL": 0.0, "BLK": 0.5, "TO": 1.5, "PF": 3.0, "PIR": 0.5, "season": "2026-27", "competition": "EuroCup", "team": "London Lions" }, { "player": "LANDRIUS HORTON", "GP": 2.0, "GS": 0.0, "MIN": 23.2, "PTS": 2.0, "OR": 2.0, "DR": 1.0, "REB": 3.0, "AST": 1.5, "STL": 1.0, "BLK": 0.0, "TO": 0.5, "PF": 1.5, "PIR": 1.5, "season": "2026-27", "competition": "EuroCup", "team": "London Lions" } ], "current_roster_availability": "Current roster14 verified, current EuroCup table10 participants. Adebayo,OGarro,Zibuda,Rai not in current EuroCup table; absence from table does not establish inactive/DNP reason. Exhibition active list unannounced.", "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL240_REFERENCE_NO_CONFIRMED_TRIGGER", "data_coverage_limits": [ "2024-25 professional record incomplete for covered roster", "Current FGA/3PA/FTA unavailable, notzero", "Four roster players without current EuroCup statistics not assumed unavailable", "Primary fallback is descriptive audit, Classic/TU missing; no league equivalence claimed" ] } ], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "London Lions at Portland Trail Blazers", "market": { "id": "401914130", "quotes": [], "average_home_line": null, "average_total": null, "spread_quote_count": 0, "total_quote_count": 0, "average_status": "UNAVAILABLE" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 1.4229919631102916, "combined": 226.56950270348537, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": 1.4229919631102916, "combined": 226.56950270348537, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 0, 1, 0, 0 ], "spread": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "total": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 0, 1, 0, 0 ], "spread": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "total": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ] } } }, { "id": "401908031", "sport": "MLB", "identity": { "id": "401908031", "date": "2026-10-12T21:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 3, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "MLB", "venue": { "id": "4242", "fullName": "American Family Field", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Milwaukee", "state": "Wisconsin" } }, "away": "19", "away_name": "Los Angeles Dodgers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "8", "home_name": "Milwaukee Brewers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 4.29891975308642, 4.547241512345678 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.29891975308642, 4.547241512345678 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.29891975308642, 4.547241512345678 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 162, "current_games": 162, "current_weight": 0.84375, "prior_rates": [ 5.092592592592593, 4.216049382716049 ], "current_rates": [ 4.944444444444445, 3.7037037037037037 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 162, "current_games": 162, "current_weight": 0.84375, "prior_rates": [ 4.9753086419753085, 3.9135802469135803 ], "current_rates": [ 5.135802469135802, 3.814814814814815 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.20654931437723745, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 2.923080632716049, "mean_margin_error": 0.7516782407407412, "mean_total_error": 5.846161265432098, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.37962962962962976, 8.37962962962963 ], "home": [ 0.4197530864197532, 8.419753086419753 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.424234623832983, 3.6617286917367746 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.424234623832983, 3.6617286917367746 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.424234623832983, 3.6617286917367746 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 4951, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-12T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "558d57811aef4fcdb3045c780700251af391054b492e0fa0acd4c1a541cb5524" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.20654931437723745, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 2.131554321838614, "mean_margin_error": 0.7740103616040193, "mean_total_error": 4.263108643677228, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.37962962962962976, 8.37962962962963 ], "home": [ 0.4197530864197532, 8.419753086419753 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 4.37962962962963, 4.419753086419753 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.37962962962963, 4.419753086419753 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.37962962962963, 4.419753086419753 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.944444444444445, "pa": 3.7037037037037037, "runs_for": 801, "runs_against": 600, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/119/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-12-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-119.json" }, "home": { "games": 162, "pf": 5.135802469135802, "pa": 3.814814814814815, "runs_for": 832, "runs_against": 618, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/158/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-12-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-158.json" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_scoring_rate": 1, "justification": "Complete 162-game regular season; no postseason result substituted." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.20654931437723745, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 2.8996913580246915, "mean_margin_error": 0.9598765432098766, "mean_total_error": 5.799382716049383, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.37962962962962976, 8.37962962962963 ], "home": [ 0.4197530864197532, 8.419753086419753 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 4.37962962962963, 4.419753086419753 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.37962962962963, 4.419753086419753 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.37962962962963, 4.419753086419753 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.944444444444445, "pa": 3.7037037037037037, "runs_for": 801, "runs_against": 600, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/119/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-12-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-119.json" }, "home": { "games": 162, "pf": 5.135802469135802, "pa": 3.814814814814815, "runs_for": 832, "runs_against": 618, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/158/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-12-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-158.json" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_scoring_rate": 1, "justification": "Complete 162-game regular season; no postseason result substituted." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.20654931437723745, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 2.8996913580246915, "mean_margin_error": 0.9598765432098766, "mean_total_error": 5.799382716049383, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.37962962962962976, 8.37962962962963 ], "home": [ 0.4197530864197532, 8.419753086419753 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "lineup", "risk": "Actual lineup, starter/bullpen availability and calibrated probability gates remain unresolved. PASS." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Los Angeles Dodgers: October11 actual Hern\u00e1ndez2B reference replaces prior projected Edman; Edman/Rojas alternatives explicitly conditional. Rojas status cannot be inferred from active roster. Ohtani/Freeman remain actual starters. Game2 order unannounced; no new absence deduction supported. Milwaukee Brewers: October11 actual VaughnDH/LaraRF branch preserved. Against right-handed Yamamoto, Yelich-for-Vaughn and Frelick-for-Lara are plausible roster-supported platoon sensitivities; not a fresh injury deduction and not confirmed order. Baseline includes mixed platoons.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. Current batting-slot opportunity and bench branches are retained in the official reference-box ledger; unannounced lineups remain conditional.", "reviewer": "Parent reconciliation of independent evidence" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independent arithmetic reviewed current nonfootball outputs; London remains outside comparable NBA history. Classic/Primary provisional; ON/OFF identical registered means. Opportunity scenarios do not supply a validated scoring conversion.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "American Family Field; listed 2026-10-12T21:00Z. MLB championship series; season/postseason segmented. No doubleheader: N American Family Field retractable roof; current roof decision not confirmed. Dodgers and Brewers played previous evening at same park.", "details": { "event_id": "401908031", "sport": "MLB", "away": "Los Angeles Dodgers", "home": "Milwaukee Brewers", "start_et": "2026-10-12T17:00:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-12T21:00Z", "venue": { "id": "4242", "fullName": "American Family Field", "address": { "city": "Milwaukee", "state": "Wisconsin" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 3, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 1, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Scheduled", "shortDetail": "10/12 - 5:00 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/scoreboard?dates=20261012&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T05:33:49.599476+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/schedule?sportId=1&startDate=2026-10-11&endDate=2026-10-12" ], "context": [ "MLB championship series; season/postseason segmented. No doubleheader: N", "American Family Field retractable roof; current roof decision not confirmed. Dodgers and Brewers played previous evening at same park." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Los Angeles Dodgers", "previous_game": { "id": "401908030", "date": "2026-10-12T00:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 3, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "MLB", "venue": { "id": "4242", "fullName": "American Family Field", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Milwaukee", "state": "Wisconsin" } }, "away": "19", "away_name": "Los Angeles Dodgers", "away_score": 1.0, "home": "8", "home_name": "Milwaukee Brewers", "home_score": 2.0, "day": 20738.0 }, "days_between_start_dates": 1, "interpretation": "Calendar gap from last retained completed game, not verified flight/rest hours. No automatic rest/travel score adjustment.", "limitation": null }, { "side": "home", "team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "previous_game": { "id": "401908030", "date": "2026-10-12T00:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 3, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "MLB", "venue": { "id": "4242", "fullName": "American Family Field", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Milwaukee", "state": "Wisconsin" } }, "away": "19", "away_name": "Los Angeles Dodgers", "away_score": 1.0, "home": "8", "home_name": "Milwaukee Brewers", "home_score": 2.0, "day": 20738.0 }, "days_between_start_dates": 1, "interpretation": "Calendar gap from last retained completed game, not verified flight/rest hours. No automatic rest/travel score adjustment.", "limitation": null } ], "weather": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/MKX/86,64/forecast/hourly", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T05:35:09.368081+00:00", "updateTime": "2026-10-12T04:36:10+00:00", "periods": [ { "number": 18, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-12T16:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-12T17:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": true, "temperature": 84, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 2 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 18.88888888888889 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 55 }, "windSpeed": "10 mph", "windDirection": "SW", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/few?size=small", "shortForecast": "Sunny", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 19, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-12T17:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-12T18:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": true, "temperature": 83, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 3 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 18.88888888888889 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 57 }, "windSpeed": "10 mph", "windDirection": "SW", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/few?size=small", "shortForecast": "Sunny", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 20, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-12T18:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-12T19:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 81, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 5 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 18.88888888888889 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 60 }, "windSpeed": "10 mph", "windDirection": "SW", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/sct?size=small", "shortForecast": "Partly Cloudy", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 21, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-12T19:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-12T20:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 78, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 15 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 18.333333333333332 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 64 }, "windSpeed": "5 mph", "windDirection": "SW", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/tsra_hi,20?size=small", "shortForecast": "Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms", "detailedForecast": "" } ], "interpretation": "Exterior forecast conditional on retractable roof; roof status unresolved. No numerical weather adjustment." }, "official_event_id": 849812, "stage_label": "NL Championship Series Game 2" }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "retrieved_utc: 2026-10-12T05:35:09.368081+00:00; updateTime: 2026-10-12T04:36:10+00:00; periods: number: 18; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-12T16:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-12T17:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: True; temperature: 84; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 2; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 18.88888888888889; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 55; windSpeed: 10 mph; windDirection: SW; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/few?size=small; shortForecast: Sunny; detailedForecast: ; number: 19; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-12T17:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-12T18:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: True; temperature: 83; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 3; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 18.88888888888889; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 57; windSpeed: 10 mph; windDirection: SW; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/few?size=small; shortForecast: Sunny; detailedForecast: ; number: 20; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-12T18:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-12T19:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 81; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 5; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 18.88888888888889; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 60; windSpeed: 10 mph; windDirection: SW; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/sct?size=small; shortForecast: Partly Cloudy; detailedForecast: ; number: 21; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-12T19:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-12T20:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 78; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 15; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 18.333333333333332; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 64; windSpeed: 5 mph; windDirection: SW; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/tsra_hi,20?size=small; shortForecast: Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms; detailedForecast: ; interpretation: Exterior forecast conditional on retractable roof; roof status unresolved. No numerical weather adjustment.", "details": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/MKX/86,64/forecast/hourly", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T05:35:09.368081+00:00", "updateTime": "2026-10-12T04:36:10+00:00", "periods": [ { "number": 18, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-12T16:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-12T17:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": true, "temperature": 84, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 2 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 18.88888888888889 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 55 }, "windSpeed": "10 mph", "windDirection": "SW", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/few?size=small", "shortForecast": "Sunny", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 19, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-12T17:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-12T18:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": true, "temperature": 83, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 3 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 18.88888888888889 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 57 }, "windSpeed": "10 mph", "windDirection": "SW", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/few?size=small", "shortForecast": "Sunny", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 20, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-12T18:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-12T19:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 81, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 5 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 18.88888888888889 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 60 }, "windSpeed": "10 mph", "windDirection": "SW", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/sct?size=small", "shortForecast": "Partly Cloudy", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 21, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-12T19:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-12T20:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 78, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 15 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 18.333333333333332 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 64 }, "windSpeed": "5 mph", "windDirection": "SW", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/tsra_hi,20?size=small", "shortForecast": "Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms", "detailedForecast": "" } ], "interpretation": "Exterior forecast conditional on retractable roof; roof status unresolved. No numerical weather adjustment." }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "lineup", "risk": "Actual lineup, starter/bullpen availability and calibrated probability gates remain unresolved. PASS." } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "sources": [ "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/MKX/86,64/forecast/hourly", "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/few?size=small", "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/sct?size=small", "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/tsra_hi,20?size=small", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/scoreboard?dates=20261012&limit=1000", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/scoreboard?dates=20261012&limit=200", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/game/849809/boxscore", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/schedule?sportId=1&startDate=2026-10-11&endDate=2026-10-12", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2024&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2025&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2026&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/119/roster/active", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/119/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/158/roster/active", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/158/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "https://www.mlb.com/gameday/dodgers-vs-brewers/2026/10/12/849812" ], "tu": { "id": "401908031", "sport": "MLB", "identity": { "id": "401908031", "date": "2026-10-12T21:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 3, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "MLB", "venue": { "id": "4242", "fullName": "American Family Field", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Milwaukee", "state": "Wisconsin" } }, "away": "19", "away_name": "Los Angeles Dodgers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "8", "home_name": "Milwaukee Brewers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "engine_id": "tighten-up-mlb-v3-full-season", "formula": "Full 2026 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean; no pitcher, park or lineup coefficient", "away_score": 4.37962962962963, "home_score": 4.419753086419753, "unrounded_score": [ 4.37962962962963, 4.419753086419753 ], "legacy_internal_rounded_score": [ 4.38, 4.42 ], "rounding_note": "Original arithmetic retained without premature storage rounding, as current four-model standard requires. Half-point display only.", "baseline": { "away": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.944444444444445, "pa": 3.7037037037037037, "runs_for": 801, "runs_against": 600, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/119/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-12-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-119.json" }, "home": { "games": 162, "pf": 5.135802469135802, "pa": 3.814814814814815, "runs_for": 832, "runs_against": 618, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/158/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-12-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-158.json" } }, "terms": {}, "venue": { "away": 0, "home": 0 }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_rate": 1, "justification": "Complete 162-game regular season; no postseason result substituted." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.37962962962962976, 8.37962962962963 ], "home": [ 0.4197530864197532, 8.419753086419753 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. 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No unsupported bench appearance probability assigned.", "status": "ANALYST SENSITIVITY, not confirmed lineup" } ], "opponent_starter_hand": "R", "opponent_starter": "Logan Henderson", "bullpen_hand_exposure": "Unknown; do not extend starting pitcher hand to all PA", "normalization": "wOBA league value and scale not verified; no OPS/HR/RBI subtraction or invented coefficient" }, "reference_lineup": [ { "slot": 1, "player": "Mookie Betts", "player_id": 605141, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.25, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 2, "player": "Freddie Freeman", "player_id": 518692, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.25, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 3, "player": "Will Smith", "player_id": 669257, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.25, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 4, "player": "Shohei Ohtani", "player_id": 660271, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 5, "player": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "player_id": 606192, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 6, "player": "Max Muncy", "player_id": 571970, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 7, "player": "Andy Pages", "player_id": 681624, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 8, "player": "Kyle Tucker", "player_id": 663656, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 9, "player": "Enrique Hern\u00e1ndez", "player_id": 571771, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.5, "observed_range": [ 3, 4 ] } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Fresh official March25-October12 inventory; both sides of every covered-team person trade retained.", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "runs", "adjustment_units": "runs", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "version": "event-review-2026-10-12-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-12T05:39:57.160121+00:00", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401908031", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 4.29891975308642, 4.547241512345678 ], "Primary": [ 3.424234623832983, 3.6617286917367746 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 4.37962962962963, 4.419753086419753 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 4.37962962962963, 4.419753086419753 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 4.29891975308642, 4.547241512345678 ], "Primary": [ 3.424234623832983, 3.6617286917367746 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 4.37962962962963, 4.419753086419753 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 4.37962962962963, 4.419753086419753 ] }, "adjusted_score_status": "Unestimated; original scores retained as base, not silently labeled adjusted.", "baseline_exposure": "Registered aggregates do not identify each player reference weight. 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119, "name": "Los Angeles Dodgers", "link": "/api/v1/teams/119" }, "player": { "id": 669242, "fullName": "Tommy Edman", "link": "/api/v1/people/669242", "firstName": "Thomas", "lastName": "Edman" }, "league": { "id": 104, "name": "National League", "link": "/api/v1/league/104" }, "sport": { "id": 1, "link": "/api/v1/sports/1", "name": "Major League Baseball", "abbreviation": "MLB" }, "gameType": "R", "split": { "code": "vl", "description": "vs Left", "sortOrder": 73 }, "position": { "code": "4", "name": "Second Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "2B" } }, { "season": "2026", "stat": { "gamesPlayed": 77, "groundOuts": 49, "airOuts": 61, "doubles": 8, "triples": 2, "homeRuns": 4, "strikeOuts": 41, "baseOnBalls": 13, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 50, "hitByPitch": 7, "avg": ".254", "atBats": 197, "obp": ".321", "slg": ".376", "ops": ".697", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 2, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "numberOfPitches": 815, "plateAppearances": 221, "totalBases": 74, "rbi": 24, "leftOnBase": 80, "sacBunts": 3, "sacFlies": 1, "babip": ".301", "groundOutsToAirouts": "0.80", "catchersInterference": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "49.25" }, "team": { "id": 119, "name": "Los Angeles Dodgers", "link": "/api/v1/teams/119" }, "player": { "id": 669242, "fullName": "Tommy Edman", "link": "/api/v1/people/669242", "firstName": "Thomas", "lastName": "Edman" }, "league": { "id": 104, "name": "National League", "link": "/api/v1/league/104" }, "sport": { "id": 1, "link": "/api/v1/sports/1", "name": "Major League Baseball", "abbreviation": "MLB" }, "gameType": "R", "split": { "code": "vr", "description": "vs Right", "sortOrder": 74 }, "position": { "code": "4", "name": "Second Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "2B" } } ] } ], "mlbDebutDate": "2019-06-08", "batSide": { "code": "S", "description": "Switch" }, "pitchHand": { "code": "R", "description": "Right" }, "nameFirstLast": "Tommy Edman", "nameSlug": "tommy-edman-669242", "firstLastName": "Tommy Edman", "lastFirstName": "Edman, Tommy", "lastInitName": "Edman, T", "initLastName": "T Edman", "fullFMLName": "Thomas Hyunsu Edman", "fullLFMName": "Edman, Thomas Hyunsu", "strikeZoneTop": 3.102, "strikeZoneBottom": 1.566 }, { "id": 607192, "fullName": "Tyler Glasnow", "link": "/api/v1/people/607192", "firstName": "Tyler", "lastName": "Glasnow", "primaryNumber": "31", "birthDate": "1993-08-23", "currentAge": 33, "birthCity": "Newhall", "birthStateProvince": "CA", "birthCountry": "USA", "height": "6' 8\"", "weight": 225, "active": true, "primaryPosition": { "code": "1", "name": "Pitcher", "type": "Pitcher", "abbreviation": "P" }, "useName": "Tyler", "useLastName": "Glasnow", "middleName": "Allen", "boxscoreName": "Glasnow", "nickName": "Baby Giraffe", "gender": "M", "isPlayer": true, "isVerified": true, "draftYear": 2011, "pronunciation": "GLASS-now", "stats": [ { "type": { "displayName": "statSplits" }, "group": { "displayName": "hitting" }, "exemptions": [], "splits": [] } ], "mlbDebutDate": "2016-07-07", "batSide": { "code": "L", "description": "Left" }, "pitchHand": { "code": "R", "description": "Right" }, "nameFirstLast": "Tyler Glasnow", "nameSlug": "tyler-glasnow-607192", "firstLastName": "Tyler Glasnow", "lastFirstName": "Glasnow, Tyler", "lastInitName": "Glasnow, T", "initLastName": "T Glasnow", "fullFMLName": "Tyler Allen Glasnow", "fullLFMName": "Glasnow, Tyler Allen", "strikeZoneTop": 3.567, "strikeZoneBottom": 1.8 }, { "id": 669257, "fullName": "Will Smith", "link": "/api/v1/people/669257", "firstName": "William", "lastName": "Smith", "primaryNumber": "16", "birthDate": "1995-03-28", "currentAge": 31, "birthCity": "Louisville", "birthStateProvince": "KY", "birthCountry": "USA", "height": "5' 10\"", "weight": 195, "active": true, "primaryPosition": { "code": "2", "name": "Catcher", "type": "Catcher", "abbreviation": "C" }, "useName": "Will", "useLastName": "Smith", "middleName": "Dills", "boxscoreName": "Smith, W", "nickName": "Smitty", "gender": "M", "isPlayer": true, "isVerified": false, "draftYear": 2016, "stats": [ { "type": { "displayName": "statSplits" }, "group": { "displayName": "hitting" }, "exemptions": [], "splits": [ { "season": "2026", "stat": { "gamesPlayed": 42, "groundOuts": 10, "airOuts": 28, "doubles": 1, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 2, "strikeOuts": 18, "baseOnBalls": 14, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 12, "hitByPitch": 1, "avg": ".176", "atBats": 68, "obp": ".325", "slg": ".279", "ops": ".604", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 0, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "numberOfPitches": 386, "plateAppearances": 83, "totalBases": 19, "rbi": 5, "leftOnBase": 28, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 0, "babip": ".208", "groundOutsToAirouts": "0.36", "catchersInterference": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "34.00" }, "team": { "id": 119, "name": "Los Angeles Dodgers", "link": "/api/v1/teams/119" }, "player": { "id": 669257, "fullName": "Will Smith", "link": "/api/v1/people/669257", "firstName": "William", "lastName": "Smith" }, "league": { "id": 104, "name": "National League", "link": "/api/v1/league/104" }, "sport": { "id": 1, "link": "/api/v1/sports/1", "name": "Major League Baseball", "abbreviation": "MLB" }, "gameType": "R", "split": { "code": "vl", "description": "vs Left", "sortOrder": 73 }, "position": { "code": "2", "name": "Catcher", "type": "Catcher", "abbreviation": "C" } }, { "season": "2026", "stat": { "gamesPlayed": 68, "groundOuts": 28, "airOuts": 67, "doubles": 8, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 8, "strikeOuts": 27, "baseOnBalls": 20, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 49, "hitByPitch": 2, "avg": ".293", "atBats": 167, "obp": ".368", "slg": ".485", "ops": ".853", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 5, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "numberOfPitches": 793, "plateAppearances": 193, "totalBases": 81, "rbi": 29, "leftOnBase": 78, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 4, "babip": ".301", "groundOutsToAirouts": "0.42", "catchersInterference": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "20.88" }, "team": { "id": 119, "name": "Los Angeles Dodgers", "link": "/api/v1/teams/119" }, "player": { "id": 669257, "fullName": "Will Smith", "link": "/api/v1/people/669257", "firstName": "William", "lastName": "Smith" }, "league": { "id": 104, "name": "National League", "link": "/api/v1/league/104" }, "sport": { "id": 1, "link": "/api/v1/sports/1", "name": "Major League Baseball", "abbreviation": "MLB" }, "gameType": "R", "split": { "code": "vr", "description": "vs Right", "sortOrder": 74 }, "position": { "code": "2", "name": "Catcher", "type": "Catcher", "abbreviation": "C" } } ] } ], "mlbDebutDate": "2019-05-28", "batSide": { "code": "R", "description": "Right" }, "pitchHand": { "code": "R", "description": "Right" }, "nameFirstLast": "Will Smith", "nameSlug": "will-smith-669257", "firstLastName": "Will Smith", "lastFirstName": "Smith, Will", "lastInitName": "Smith, W", "initLastName": "W Smith", "fullFMLName": "William Dills Smith", "fullLFMName": "Smith, William Dills", "strikeZoneTop": 3.138, "strikeZoneBottom": 1.583 }, { "id": 808967, "fullName": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "link": "/api/v1/people/808967", "firstName": "Yoshinobu", "lastName": "Yamamoto", "primaryNumber": "18", "birthDate": "1998-08-17", "currentAge": 28, "birthCity": "Bizen", "birthCountry": "Japan", "height": "5' 10\"", "weight": 176, "active": true, "primaryPosition": { "code": "1", "name": "Pitcher", "type": "Pitcher", "abbreviation": "P" }, "useName": "Yoshinobu", "useLastName": "Yamamoto", "boxscoreName": "Yamamoto", "gender": "M", "isPlayer": true, "isVerified": false, "pronunciation": "yo-SHE-no-boo ya-mah-moh-to", "stats": [ { "type": { "displayName": "statSplits" }, "group": { "displayName": "hitting" }, "exemptions": [], "splits": [] } ], "mlbDebutDate": "2024-03-21", "batSide": { "code": "R", "description": "Right" }, "pitchHand": { "code": "R", "description": "Right" }, "nameFirstLast": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "nameSlug": "yoshinobu-yamamoto-808967", "firstLastName": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "lastFirstName": "Yamamoto, Yoshinobu", "lastInitName": "Yamamoto, Y", "initLastName": "Y Yamamoto", "fullFMLName": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "fullLFMName": "Yamamoto, Yoshinobu ", "strikeZoneTop": 3.121, "strikeZoneBottom": 1.575 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_ORDER_PA_AND_BENCH_BRANCH_REVIEWED", "findings": "October11 actual Hern\u00e1ndez2B reference replaces prior projected Edman; Edman/Rojas alternatives explicitly conditional. Rojas status cannot be inferred from active roster. Ohtani/Freeman remain actual starters. Game2 order unannounced; no new absence deduction supported." }, { "sport": "MLB", "event_id": 849812, "team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "review_status": "CONDITIONAL_OPPORTUNITY_REVIEW_COMPLETE", "incumbent_id": null, "replacement_ids": null, "expected_opportunities": { "scenario": "Latest actual nine repeats conditional", "ordered_starters": [ { "slot": 1, "player": "Jackson Chourio", "player_id": 694192, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.75, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 2, "player": "Brice Turang", "player_id": 668930, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.5, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 3, "player": "William Contreras", "player_id": 661388, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.5, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 4, "player": "Jake Bauers", "player_id": 641343, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.5, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 5, "player": "Andrew Vaughn", "player_id": 683734, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.25, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 6, "player": "Garrett Mitchell", "player_id": 669003, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 7, "player": "Cooper Pratt", "player_id": 806198, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 8, "player": "Luis Lara", "player_id": 800325, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 9, "player": "Joey Ortiz", "player_id": 687401, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] } ], "empirical_slot_PA_by_stage": { "D": { "n_games": 4, "slots": { "1": [ 4, 5, 5, 5 ], "2": [ 4, 4, 5, 5 ], "3": [ 4, 4, 5, 5 ], "4": [ 4, 4, 5, 5 ], "5": [ 4, 4, 5, 4 ], "6": [ 4, 4, 4, 4 ], "7": [ 4, 4, 4, 4 ], "8": [ 4, 4, 4, 4 ], "9": [ 4, 4, 4, 4 ] } }, "L": { "n_games": 1, "slots": { "1": [ 4 ], "2": [ 4 ], "3": [ 4 ], "4": [ 4 ], "5": [ 4 ], "6": [ 4 ], "7": [ 3 ], "8": [ 3 ], "9": [ 3 ] } }, "R": { "n_games": 7, "slots": { "1": [ 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 4, 4 ], "2": [ 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 4, 4 ], "3": [ 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 4, 4 ], "4": [ 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 4, 4 ], "5": [ 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 4, 4 ], "6": [ 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 4, 4 ], "7": [ 4, 4, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4 ], "8": [ 4, 4, 3, 4, 4, 4, 3 ], "9": [ 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 3 ] } } }, "chosen_reference_stage": "D", "conditional_team_PA": 38.5, "opportunity_branches": [ { "incumbent_reference_id": 683734, "incumbent": "Andrew Vaughn", "replacement_id": 592885, "replacement": "Christian Yelich", "slot": 5, "affected_PA": 4.25, "position_chain": "Same starting-role slot; other positions retained; normal platoon/health branch is conditional.", "bench_substitution": "A bench PA transfers one PA from same slot, never adds to team PA. No unsupported bench appearance probability assigned.", "status": "ANALYST SENSITIVITY, not confirmed lineup" }, { "incumbent_reference_id": 800325, "incumbent": "Luis Lara", "replacement_id": 686217, "replacement": "Sal Frelick", "slot": 8, "affected_PA": 4.0, "position_chain": "Same starting-role slot; other positions retained; normal platoon/health branch is conditional.", "bench_substitution": "A bench PA transfers one PA from same slot, never adds to team PA. No unsupported bench appearance probability assigned.", "status": "ANALYST SENSITIVITY, not confirmed lineup" } ], "opponent_starter_hand": "R", "opponent_starter": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "bullpen_hand_exposure": "Unknown; do not extend starting pitcher hand to all PA", "normalization": "wOBA league value and scale not verified; no OPS/HR/RBI subtraction or invented coefficient" }, "reference_lineup": [ { "slot": 1, "player": "Jackson Chourio", "player_id": 694192, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.75, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 2, "player": "Brice Turang", "player_id": 668930, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.5, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 3, "player": "William Contreras", "player_id": 661388, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.5, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 4, "player": "Jake Bauers", "player_id": 641343, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.5, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 5, "player": "Andrew Vaughn", "player_id": 683734, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.25, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 6, "player": "Garrett Mitchell", "player_id": 669003, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 7, "player": "Cooper Pratt", "player_id": 806198, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 8, "player": "Luis Lara", "player_id": 800325, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 9, "player": "Joey Ortiz", "player_id": 687401, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Fresh official March25-October12 inventory; both sides of every covered-team person trade retained.", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "runs", "adjustment_units": "runs", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "version": "event-review-2026-10-12-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-12T05:39:57.160121+00:00", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401908031", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 4.29891975308642, 4.547241512345678 ], "Primary": [ 3.424234623832983, 3.6617286917367746 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 4.37962962962963, 4.419753086419753 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 4.37962962962963, 4.419753086419753 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 4.29891975308642, 4.547241512345678 ], "Primary": [ 3.424234623832983, 3.6617286917367746 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 4.37962962962963, 4.419753086419753 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 4.37962962962963, 4.419753086419753 ] }, "adjusted_score_status": "Unestimated; original scores retained as base, not silently labeled adjusted.", "baseline_exposure": "Registered aggregates do not identify each player reference weight. All player workload variants are sensitivities, not calibrated corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED_ALLOWED: no validated role-controlled run/PPP/goal coefficient", "gate_outcome": "CONDITIONAL_REVIEW_COMPLETE_NUMERIC_EFFECT_UNESTIMATED", "football_minus3": 0, "uncertainty": "Projected role is not confirmed lineup. Preserve unknown numerical effect, teammate/opponent confounding and reference exposure.", "collector_source": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\Offensive-Replacement-Tracking\\capture-20261012T053148Z", "price_inputs_used": false, "sources": [ "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/158/roster/active", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/game/849809/boxscore", "https://www.mlb.com/gameday/dodgers-vs-brewers/2026/10/12/849812" ], "reference_date": "2026-10-12T00:00:00Z", "comparison_player_ids": [ 592885, 596142, 622608, 641343, 656730, 661388, 666152, 668930, 668941, 669003, 669084, 669160, 675660, 676879, 682842, 683734, 686217, 687401, 688107, 690986, 694192, 694477, 694819, 701656, 800325, 806198 ], "two_season_comparison_rows": [ { "season": 2024, "stage": "regular", "player_id": 592885, "player": "Christian Yelich", "team_id": 158, "team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "num_teams": 1, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2024&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "plateAppearances": 315, "hits": 85, "doubles": 12, "strikeOuts": 58, "gamesPlayed": 73, "sacFlies": 1, "stolenBases": 21, "slg": ".504", "totalBases": 136, "triples": 3, "atBats": 270, "baseOnBalls": 40, "ops": ".910", "hitByPitch": 2, "runs": 44, "sacBunts": 1, "homeRuns": 11, "avg": ".315", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 3, "caughtStealing": 1, "babip": ".366", "obp": ".406", "intentionalWalks": 3, "rbi": 42, "singles": 59 }, { "season": 2024, "stage": "regular", "player_id": 661388, "player": "William Contreras", "team_id": 158, "team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "num_teams": 1, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2024&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "plateAppearances": 679, "hits": 167, "doubles": 37, "strikeOuts": 139, "gamesPlayed": 155, "sacFlies": 3, "stolenBases": 9, "slg": ".466", "totalBases": 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"lastFirstName": "Frelick, Sal", "lastInitName": "Frelick, S", "initLastName": "S Frelick", "fullFMLName": "Salvatore Michael Frelick", "fullLFMName": "Frelick, Salvatore Michael", "strikeZoneTop": 3.06, "strikeZoneBottom": 1.55 }, { "id": 675660, "fullName": "Shane Drohan", "link": "/api/v1/people/675660", "firstName": "Shane", "lastName": "Drohan", "primaryNumber": "55", "birthDate": "1999-01-07", "currentAge": 27, "birthCity": "Fort Lauderdale", "birthStateProvince": "FL", "birthCountry": "USA", "height": "6' 2\"", "weight": 202, "active": true, "primaryPosition": { "code": "1", "name": "Pitcher", "type": "Pitcher", "abbreviation": "P" }, "useName": "Shane", "useLastName": "Drohan", "middleName": "Liam", "boxscoreName": "Drohan", "gender": "M", "isPlayer": true, "isVerified": true, "draftYear": 2020, "stats": [ { "type": { "displayName": "statSplits" }, "group": { "displayName": "hitting" }, "exemptions": [], "splits": [] } ], "mlbDebutDate": "2026-04-08", "batSide": { "code": "L", "description": "Left" }, "pitchHand": { "code": "L", "description": "Left" }, "nameFirstLast": "Shane Drohan", "nameSlug": "shane-drohan-675660", "firstLastName": "Shane Drohan", "lastFirstName": "Drohan, Shane", "lastInitName": "Drohan, S", "initLastName": "S Drohan", "fullFMLName": "Shane Liam Drohan", "fullLFMName": "Drohan, Shane Liam", "strikeZoneTop": 3.299, "strikeZoneBottom": 1.665 }, { "id": 656730, "fullName": "Trevor Megill", "link": "/api/v1/people/656730", "firstName": "Trevor", "lastName": "Megill", "primaryNumber": "29", "birthDate": "1993-12-05", "currentAge": 32, "birthCity": "Long Beach", "birthStateProvince": "CA", "birthCountry": "USA", "height": "6' 8\"", "weight": 253, "active": true, "primaryPosition": { "code": "1", "name": "Pitcher", "type": "Pitcher", "abbreviation": "P" }, "useName": "Trevor", "useLastName": "Megill", "middleName": "J.", "boxscoreName": "Megill", "nickName": "Gorilla", "gender": "M", "isPlayer": true, "isVerified": true, "draftYear": 2015, "pronunciation": "meh-GILL", "stats": [ { "type": { "displayName": "statSplits" }, "group": { "displayName": "hitting" }, "exemptions": [], "splits": [] } ], "mlbDebutDate": "2021-04-26", "batSide": { "code": "L", "description": "Left" }, "pitchHand": { "code": "R", "description": "Right" }, "nameFirstLast": "Trevor Megill", "nameSlug": "trevor-megill-656730", "firstLastName": "Trevor Megill", "lastFirstName": "Megill, Trevor", "lastInitName": "Megill, T", "initLastName": "T Megill", "fullFMLName": "Trevor J. Megill", "fullLFMName": "Megill, Trevor J.", "strikeZoneTop": 3.567, "strikeZoneBottom": 1.8 }, { "id": 661388, "fullName": "William Contreras", "link": "/api/v1/people/661388", "firstName": "William", "lastName": "Contreras", "primaryNumber": "24", "birthDate": "1997-12-24", "currentAge": 28, "birthCity": "Puerto Cabello", "birthCountry": "Venezuela", "height": "5' 10\"", "weight": 217, "active": true, "primaryPosition": { "code": "2", "name": "Catcher", "type": "Catcher", "abbreviation": "C" }, "useName": "William", "useLastName": "Contreras", "middleName": "Jesus", "boxscoreName": "Contreras, Wm", "gender": "M", "nameMatrilineal": "Castillo", "isPlayer": true, "isVerified": true, "stats": [ { "type": { "displayName": "statSplits" }, "group": { "displayName": "hitting" }, "exemptions": [], "splits": [ { "season": "2026", "stat": { "gamesPlayed": 87, "groundOuts": 39, "airOuts": 50, "doubles": 9, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 4, "strikeOuts": 29, "baseOnBalls": 21, "intentionalWalks": 4, "hits": 43, "hitByPitch": 1, "avg": ".272", "atBats": 158, "obp": ".355", "slg": ".405", "ops": ".760", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 5, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "numberOfPitches": 693, "plateAppearances": 183, "totalBases": 64, "rbi": 21, "leftOnBase": 68, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 3, "babip": ".305", "groundOutsToAirouts": "0.78", "catchersInterference": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "39.50" }, "team": { "id": 158, "name": "Milwaukee Brewers", "link": "/api/v1/teams/158" }, "player": { "id": 661388, "fullName": "William Contreras", "link": "/api/v1/people/661388", "firstName": "William", "lastName": "Contreras" }, "league": { "id": 104, "name": "National League", "link": "/api/v1/league/104" }, "sport": { "id": 1, "link": "/api/v1/sports/1", "name": "Major League Baseball", "abbreviation": "MLB" }, "gameType": "R", "split": { "code": "vl", "description": "vs Left", "sortOrder": 73 }, "position": { "code": "2", "name": "Catcher", "type": "Catcher", "abbreviation": "C" } }, { "season": "2026", "stat": { "gamesPlayed": 141, "groundOuts": 104, "airOuts": 135, "doubles": 18, "triples": 1, "homeRuns": 14, "strikeOuts": 65, "baseOnBalls": 40, "intentionalWalks": 2, "hits": 110, "hitByPitch": 3, "avg": ".270", "atBats": 408, "obp": ".335", "slg": ".422", "ops": ".757", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 8, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "numberOfPitches": 1585, "plateAppearances": 457, "totalBases": 172, "rbi": 73, "leftOnBase": 196, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 6, "babip": ".287", "groundOutsToAirouts": "0.77", "catchersInterference": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "29.14" }, "team": { "id": 158, "name": "Milwaukee Brewers", "link": "/api/v1/teams/158" }, "player": { "id": 661388, "fullName": "William Contreras", "link": "/api/v1/people/661388", "firstName": "William", "lastName": "Contreras" }, "league": { "id": 104, "name": "National League", "link": "/api/v1/league/104" }, "sport": { "id": 1, "link": "/api/v1/sports/1", "name": "Major League Baseball", "abbreviation": "MLB" }, "gameType": "R", "split": { "code": "vr", "description": "vs Right", "sortOrder": 74 }, "position": { "code": "2", "name": "Catcher", "type": "Catcher", "abbreviation": "C" } } ] } ], "mlbDebutDate": "2020-07-24", "batSide": { "code": "R", "description": "Right" }, "pitchHand": { "code": "R", "description": "Right" }, "nameFirstLast": "William Contreras", "nameSlug": "william-contreras-661388", "firstLastName": "William Contreras", "lastFirstName": "Contreras, William", "lastInitName": "Contreras, W", "initLastName": "W Contreras", "fullFMLName": "William Jesus Contreras", "fullLFMName": "Contreras, William Jesus", "strikeZoneTop": 3.13, "strikeZoneBottom": 1.58 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_ORDER_PA_AND_BENCH_BRANCH_REVIEWED", "findings": "October11 actual VaughnDH/LaraRF branch preserved. Against right-handed Yamamoto, Yelich-for-Vaughn and Frelick-for-Lara are plausible roster-supported platoon sensitivities; not a fresh injury deduction and not confirmed order. Baseline includes mixed platoons." } ], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers", "market": { "id": "401908031", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/summary?event=401908031", "requested_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.183345+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.553836+00:00", "home_line": 1.5, "away_line": -1.5, "home_line_price": -162.0, "away_line_price": 134.0, "total": 7.0, "under_line": 7.0, "over_price": 103.0, "under_price": -124.0, "home_ml": 113.0, "away_ml": -136.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 1.5, "average_total": 7.0, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.2483217592592588, "combined": 8.846161265432098, "spread_buffer": 1.7483217592592588, "total_difference": 1.846161265432098 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.2483217592592588, "combined": 8.846161265432098, "spread_buffer": 1.7483217592592588, "total_difference": 1.846161265432098 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0, "base_buffer": 1.7483217592592588, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.7483217592592588, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "NOT_CERTIFIED; no supported bound on the documented starter/lineup/bullpen branches", "final_state": "LEAN", "production_decision": "PASS", "promotion_allowed": false, "selection": "Milwaukee Brewers", "line": 1.5, "price": -162.0, "stressed_home_margin": -0.7516782407407412, "reason": "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility.", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility.", "The frozen Tighten Up full-season team-rate engine has no starter term. Yamamoto (2026 2.53 ERA/185.0 IP; Oct6 7.0 IP/98 pitches) and Henderson (2.47 ERA/98.1 IP; Oct4 5.0 IP/72 pitches) are the official probables. Their game-specific innings mix is not the full-season staff mix. A longer effective Yamamoto outing is adverse to MIL +1.5; effective outings by both starters are adverse to Over7.", "MIL last actual lineup used Vaughn DH/Lara RF; Yelich/Frelick alternatives against right-handed Yamamoto remain conditional. LAD second-base reference is Enrique Hernandez with Edman/Rojas alternatives; no actual Game2 order or new injury established. The historical baseline already mixes platoons.", "Game1 on Oct11 ET used MIL Ashby26 pitches/2IP, Uribe15/1IP, Megill19/1IP, Hall4/0.2IP. LAD used Vesia16/1IP, Phillips17/1IP and Scott9/1IP. Ashby repeating a two-inning bridge is unconfirmed; substitute innings could harm MIL run-line protection. None is declared unavailable merely from pitch count." ] }, "total": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0, "base_buffer": 1.846161265432098, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.846161265432098, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "NOT_CERTIFIED; no supported bound on the documented starter/lineup/bullpen branches", "final_state": "LEAN", "production_decision": "PASS", "promotion_allowed": false, "selection": "Over", "line": 7.0, "price": 103.0, "stressed_total_one_run_only": 7.846161265432098, "reason": "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility.", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility.", "The frozen Tighten Up full-season team-rate engine has no starter term. Yamamoto (2026 2.53 ERA/185.0 IP; Oct6 7.0 IP/98 pitches) and Henderson (2.47 ERA/98.1 IP; Oct4 5.0 IP/72 pitches) are the official probables. Their game-specific innings mix is not the full-season staff mix. A longer effective Yamamoto outing is adverse to MIL +1.5; effective outings by both starters are adverse to Over7.", "MIL last actual lineup used Vaughn DH/Lara RF; Yelich/Frelick alternatives against right-handed Yamamoto remain conditional. LAD second-base reference is Enrique Hernandez with Edman/Rojas alternatives; no actual Game2 order or new injury established. The historical baseline already mixes platoons." ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.2374940679037918, "combined": 7.0859633155697574, "spread_buffer": 1.7374940679037918, "total_difference": 0.08596331556975745 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.2374940679037918, "combined": 7.0859633155697574, "spread_buffer": 1.7374940679037918, "total_difference": 0.08596331556975745 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0, "base_buffer": 1.7374940679037918, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.7374940679037918, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "NOT_CERTIFIED; no supported bound on the documented starter/lineup/bullpen branches", "final_state": "LEAN", "production_decision": "PASS", "promotion_allowed": false, "selection": "Milwaukee Brewers", "line": 1.5, "price": -162.0, "stressed_home_margin": -0.7625059320962082, "reason": "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility.", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility.", "The frozen Tighten Up full-season team-rate engine has no starter term. Yamamoto (2026 2.53 ERA/185.0 IP; Oct6 7.0 IP/98 pitches) and Henderson (2.47 ERA/98.1 IP; Oct4 5.0 IP/72 pitches) are the official probables. Their game-specific innings mix is not the full-season staff mix. A longer effective Yamamoto outing is adverse to MIL +1.5; effective outings by both starters are adverse to Over7.", "MIL last actual lineup used Vaughn DH/Lara RF; Yelich/Frelick alternatives against right-handed Yamamoto remain conditional. LAD second-base reference is Enrique Hernandez with Edman/Rojas alternatives; no actual Game2 order or new injury established. The historical baseline already mixes platoons.", "Game1 on Oct11 ET used MIL Ashby26 pitches/2IP, Uribe15/1IP, Megill19/1IP, Hall4/0.2IP. LAD used Vesia16/1IP, Phillips17/1IP and Scott9/1IP. Ashby repeating a two-inning bridge is unconfirmed; substitute innings could harm MIL run-line protection. None is declared unavailable merely from pitch count." ] }, "total": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0, "base_buffer": 0.08596331556975745, "base_floor_met": false, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": -0.9140366844302426, "same_side_after_one_run": false, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": false, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "NOT_CERTIFIED; no supported bound on the documented starter/lineup/bullpen branches", "final_state": "NO_EDGE", "production_decision": "PASS", "promotion_allowed": false, "selection": "Over", "line": 7.0, "price": 103.0, "stressed_total_one_run_only": 6.0859633155697574, "reason": "Numerical buffer/stress fails.", "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Numerical buffer/stress fails.", "The frozen Tighten Up full-season team-rate engine has no starter term. Yamamoto (2026 2.53 ERA/185.0 IP; Oct6 7.0 IP/98 pitches) and Henderson (2.47 ERA/98.1 IP; Oct4 5.0 IP/72 pitches) are the official probables. Their game-specific innings mix is not the full-season staff mix. A longer effective Yamamoto outing is adverse to MIL +1.5; effective outings by both starters are adverse to Over7.", "MIL last actual lineup used Vaughn DH/Lara RF; Yelich/Frelick alternatives against right-handed Yamamoto remain conditional. LAD second-base reference is Enrique Hernandez with Edman/Rojas alternatives; no actual Game2 order or new injury established. The historical baseline already mixes platoons." ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.04012345679012341, "combined": 8.799382716049383, "spread_buffer": 1.5401234567901234, "total_difference": 1.799382716049383 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.04012345679012341, "combined": 8.799382716049383, "spread_buffer": 1.5401234567901234, "total_difference": 1.799382716049383 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.5, "base_buffer": 1.5401234567901234, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.5401234567901234, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "NOT_CERTIFIED; no supported bound on the documented starter/lineup/bullpen branches", "final_state": "LEAN", "production_decision": "PASS", "promotion_allowed": false, "selection": "Milwaukee Brewers", "line": 1.5, "price": -162.0, "stressed_home_margin": -0.9598765432098766, "reason": "Numerical gates pass, but unresolved medium availability/lineup risk forbids Conservative ON promotion; combined event-specific robustness is also unverified.", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Numerical gates pass, but unresolved medium availability/lineup risk forbids Conservative ON promotion; combined event-specific robustness is also unverified.", "The frozen Tighten Up full-season team-rate engine has no starter term. Yamamoto (2026 2.53 ERA/185.0 IP; Oct6 7.0 IP/98 pitches) and Henderson (2.47 ERA/98.1 IP; Oct4 5.0 IP/72 pitches) are the official probables. Their game-specific innings mix is not the full-season staff mix. A longer effective Yamamoto outing is adverse to MIL +1.5; effective outings by both starters are adverse to Over7.", "MIL last actual lineup used Vaughn DH/Lara RF; Yelich/Frelick alternatives against right-handed Yamamoto remain conditional. LAD second-base reference is Enrique Hernandez with Edman/Rojas alternatives; no actual Game2 order or new injury established. The historical baseline already mixes platoons.", "Game1 on Oct11 ET used MIL Ashby26 pitches/2IP, Uribe15/1IP, Megill19/1IP, Hall4/0.2IP. LAD used Vesia16/1IP, Phillips17/1IP and Scott9/1IP. Ashby repeating a two-inning bridge is unconfirmed; substitute innings could harm MIL run-line protection. None is declared unavailable merely from pitch count." ] }, "total": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.5, "base_buffer": 1.799382716049383, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.7993827160493829, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "NOT_CERTIFIED; no supported bound on the documented starter/lineup/bullpen branches", "final_state": "LEAN", "production_decision": "PASS", "promotion_allowed": false, "selection": "Over", "line": 7.0, "price": 103.0, "stressed_total_one_run_only": 7.799382716049383, "reason": "Numerical gates pass, but unresolved medium availability/lineup risk forbids Conservative ON promotion; combined event-specific robustness is also unverified.", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Numerical gates pass, but unresolved medium availability/lineup risk forbids Conservative ON promotion; combined event-specific robustness is also unverified.", "The frozen Tighten Up full-season team-rate engine has no starter term. Yamamoto (2026 2.53 ERA/185.0 IP; Oct6 7.0 IP/98 pitches) and Henderson (2.47 ERA/98.1 IP; Oct4 5.0 IP/72 pitches) are the official probables. Their game-specific innings mix is not the full-season staff mix. A longer effective Yamamoto outing is adverse to MIL +1.5; effective outings by both starters are adverse to Over7.", "MIL last actual lineup used Vaughn DH/Lara RF; Yelich/Frelick alternatives against right-handed Yamamoto remain conditional. LAD second-base reference is Enrique Hernandez with Edman/Rojas alternatives; no actual Game2 order or new injury established. The historical baseline already mixes platoons." ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.04012345679012341, "combined": 8.799382716049383, "spread_buffer": 1.5401234567901234, "total_difference": 1.799382716049383 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.04012345679012341, "combined": 8.799382716049383, "spread_buffer": 1.5401234567901234, "total_difference": 1.799382716049383 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0, "base_buffer": 1.5401234567901234, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.5401234567901234, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "NOT_CERTIFIED; no supported bound on the documented starter/lineup/bullpen branches", "final_state": "LEAN", "production_decision": "PASS", "promotion_allowed": false, "selection": "Milwaukee Brewers", "line": 1.5, "price": -162.0, "stressed_home_margin": -0.9598765432098766, "reason": "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility.", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility.", "The frozen Tighten Up full-season team-rate engine has no starter term. Yamamoto (2026 2.53 ERA/185.0 IP; Oct6 7.0 IP/98 pitches) and Henderson (2.47 ERA/98.1 IP; Oct4 5.0 IP/72 pitches) are the official probables. Their game-specific innings mix is not the full-season staff mix. A longer effective Yamamoto outing is adverse to MIL +1.5; effective outings by both starters are adverse to Over7.", "MIL last actual lineup used Vaughn DH/Lara RF; Yelich/Frelick alternatives against right-handed Yamamoto remain conditional. LAD second-base reference is Enrique Hernandez with Edman/Rojas alternatives; no actual Game2 order or new injury established. The historical baseline already mixes platoons.", "Game1 on Oct11 ET used MIL Ashby26 pitches/2IP, Uribe15/1IP, Megill19/1IP, Hall4/0.2IP. LAD used Vesia16/1IP, Phillips17/1IP and Scott9/1IP. Ashby repeating a two-inning bridge is unconfirmed; substitute innings could harm MIL run-line protection. None is declared unavailable merely from pitch count." ] }, "total": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0, "base_buffer": 1.799382716049383, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.7993827160493829, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "NOT_CERTIFIED; no supported bound on the documented starter/lineup/bullpen branches", "final_state": "LEAN", "production_decision": "PASS", "promotion_allowed": false, "selection": "Over", "line": 7.0, "price": 103.0, "stressed_total_one_run_only": 7.799382716049383, "reason": "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility.", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility.", "The frozen Tighten Up full-season team-rate engine has no starter term. Yamamoto (2026 2.53 ERA/185.0 IP; Oct6 7.0 IP/98 pitches) and Henderson (2.47 ERA/98.1 IP; Oct4 5.0 IP/72 pitches) are the official probables. Their game-specific innings mix is not the full-season staff mix. A longer effective Yamamoto outing is adverse to MIL +1.5; effective outings by both starters are adverse to Over7.", "MIL last actual lineup used Vaughn DH/Lara RF; Yelich/Frelick alternatives against right-handed Yamamoto remain conditional. LAD second-base reference is Enrique Hernandez with Edman/Rojas alternatives; no actual Game2 order or new injury established. The historical baseline already mixes platoons." ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401892486", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892486", "date": "2026-10-12T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1826", "fullName": "Prudential Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Newark", "state": "NJ", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "14", "away_name": "Ottawa Senators", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "11", "home_name": "New Jersey Devils", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.1384146341463417, 2.897032520325203 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.1384146341463417, 2.897032520325203 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.1384146341463417, 2.897032520325203 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.2, "prior_rates": [ 3.3902439024390243, 3.0 ], "current_rates": [ 3.0, 2.2 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.16666666666666666, "prior_rates": [ 2.8048780487804876, 3.097560975609756 ], "current_rates": [ 2.5, 3.5 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "wilson95": [ 0.2076596008020477, 0.9385080552796037 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3478452678757558, "mean_margin_error": 2.6956905357515115, "mean_total_error": 1.5761283093600158, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.2195049999999998, 5.219505 ], "home": [ 0.8719450000000002, 4.871945 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.0909303314310934, 2.787967005714272 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.0909303314310934, 2.787967005714272 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.0909303314310934, 2.787967005714272 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2855, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-11T23:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3b0adb131271c75a77cc788f19735b2d2d53f6aceeae8ec00c0d22392f6a8570" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "wilson95": [ 0.2076596008020477, 0.9385080552796037 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3332969922245195, "mean_margin_error": 2.666593984449039, "mean_total_error": 1.516383961247979, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.2195049999999998, 5.219505 ], "home": [ 0.8719450000000002, 4.871945 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 3.219505, 2.871945 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.219505, 2.871945 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.219505, 2.871945 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.35365, "pa": 2.9878, "official_team_id": 9, "official_team_name": "Ottawa Senators" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.75609, "pa": 3.08536, "official_team_id": 1, "official_team_name": "New Jersey Devils" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "wilson95": [ 0.2076596008020477, 0.9385080552796037 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4105683333333332, "mean_margin_error": 2.8211366666666664, "mean_total_error": 1.6707366666666665, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.2195049999999998, 5.219505 ], "home": [ 0.8719450000000002, 4.871945 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 3.219505, 2.871945 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.219505, 2.871945 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.219505, 2.871945 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.35365, "pa": 2.9878, "official_team_id": 9, "official_team_name": "Ottawa Senators" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.75609, "pa": 3.08536, "official_team_id": 1, "official_team_name": "New Jersey Devils" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "wilson95": [ 0.2076596008020477, 0.9385080552796037 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4105683333333332, "mean_margin_error": 2.8211366666666664, "mean_total_error": 1.6707366666666665, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.2195049999999998, 5.219505 ], "home": [ 0.8719450000000002, 4.871945 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "OTT: Official October12 Devils preview lists Eklund/Zub/MacDermid on IR and Sanderson/Crotty day-to-day. Latest actual Oct10 role distribution already excludes them. Same-active18 branch plus Sanderson-for-Stanley and Crotty-for-Matinpalo defensive-slot return sensitivities retain offensive and PK exposure without assuming coach choice. NJD: Official October12 preview says Kovacevic removed from IR and may play one of the back-to-back games; Brown DTD, Bjugstad/Casey out. Latest actual reference includes Lombardi and Chisholm. Conditional Kovacevic-for-Chisholm and Brown-for-Lombardi role chain retained with other line labels unknown; goalie choice separately unconfirmed.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.", "reviewer": "Parent reconciliation of independent evidence" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independent arithmetic reviewed current nonfootball outputs; London remains outside comparable NBA history. Classic/Primary provisional; ON/OFF identical registered means. Opportunity scenarios do not supply a validated scoring conversion.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Prudential Center; listed 2026-10-12T23:00Z. Official NHL gameType2 and date/venue/time matched; do not call current games preseason. NHL activation gate remains tracking-only.", "details": { "event_id": "401892486", "sport": "NHL", "away": "Ottawa Senators", "home": "New Jersey Devils", "start_et": "2026-10-12T19:00:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-12T23:00Z", "venue": { "id": "1826", "fullName": "Prudential Center", "address": { "city": "Newark", "state": "NJ", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Mon, October 12th at 7:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/12 - 7:00 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261012&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T05:33:49.658909+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-11" ], "context": [ "Official NHL gameType2 and date/venue/time matched; do not call current games preseason. NHL activation gate remains tracking-only." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Ottawa Senators", "previous_game": { "id": "401892474", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1832", "fullName": "Canadian Tire Centre", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Ottawa", "state": "ON", "country": "Canada" } }, "away": "27", "away_name": "Nashville Predators", "away_score": 2.0, "home": "14", "home_name": "Ottawa Senators", "home_score": 3.0, "day": 20736.958333333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar gap from last retained completed game, not verified flight/rest hours. No automatic rest/travel score adjustment.", "limitation": null }, { "side": "home", "team": "New Jersey Devils", "previous_game": { "id": "401892470", "date": "2026-10-10T19:30Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1826", "fullName": "Prudential Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Newark", "state": "NJ", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "22", "away_name": "Vancouver Canucks", "away_score": 1.0, "home": "11", "home_name": "New Jersey Devils", "home_score": 4.0, "day": 20736.8125 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar gap from last retained completed game, not verified flight/rest hours. No automatic rest/travel score adjustment.", "limitation": null } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct weather adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "official_event_id": 2026020088, "stage_label": "Regular season / tracking only" }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor arena; no direct weather adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct weather adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020009/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020023/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020029/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020041/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020046/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020047/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020059/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020071/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020076/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-11", 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Cousins", "EV_seconds": 595, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 3 }, { "player_id": 8484321, "player": "Nikolas Matinpalo", "EV_seconds": 695, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 260 }, { "player_id": 8484759, "player": "Carter Yakemchuk", "EV_seconds": 1062, "PP_seconds": 124, "SH_seconds": 6 }, { "player_id": 8482092, "player": "Ridly Greig", "EV_seconds": 874, "PP_seconds": 131, "SH_seconds": 208 }, { "player_id": 8482095, "player": "Tyler Kleven", "EV_seconds": 985, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 281 }, { "player_id": 8482116, "player": "Tim St\u00fctzle", "EV_seconds": 1066, "PP_seconds": 276, "SH_seconds": 224 }, { "player_id": 8484409, "player": "Hoyt Stanley", "EV_seconds": 535, "PP_seconds": 3, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478469, "player": "Thomas Chabot", "EV_seconds": 1381, "PP_seconds": 186, "SH_seconds": 156 }, { "player_id": 8480188, "player": "Fabian Zetterlund", "EV_seconds": 510, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "projected_changes": [], "conditional_return_branches": [ { "status": "ANALYST CONDITIONAL, not announced minutes/lines", "changes": [ { "from": "Hoyt Stanley", "from_id": 8484409, "to": "Jake Sanderson", "to_id": 8482105, "EV_seconds": 535, "PP_seconds": 3, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "rotation": [ { "player_id": 8477998, "player": "Warren Foegele", "EV_seconds": 542, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 15 }, { "player_id": 8483676, "player": "Stephen Halliday", "EV_seconds": 379, "PP_seconds": 98, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480208, "player": "Drake Batherson", "EV_seconds": 953, "PP_seconds": 226, "SH_seconds": 6 }, { "player_id": 8477444, "player": "Andre Burakovsky", "EV_seconds": 563, "PP_seconds": 141, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481528, "player": "Dylan Cozens", "EV_seconds": 997, "PP_seconds": 219, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481606, "player": "Jordan Spence", "EV_seconds": 1284, "PP_seconds": 13, "SH_seconds": 173 }, { "player_id": 8473512, "player": "Claude Giroux", "EV_seconds": 891, "PP_seconds": 211, "SH_seconds": 20 }, { "player_id": 8478020, "player": "Michael Amadio", "EV_seconds": 761, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 186 }, { "player_id": 8481596, "player": "Shane Pinto", "EV_seconds": 937, "PP_seconds": 150, "SH_seconds": 214 }, { "player_id": 8476393, "player": "Nick Cousins", "EV_seconds": 595, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 3 }, { "player_id": 8484321, "player": "Nikolas Matinpalo", "EV_seconds": 695, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 260 }, { "player_id": 8484759, "player": "Carter Yakemchuk", "EV_seconds": 1062, "PP_seconds": 124, "SH_seconds": 6 }, { "player_id": 8482092, "player": "Ridly Greig", "EV_seconds": 874, "PP_seconds": 131, "SH_seconds": 208 }, { "player_id": 8482095, "player": "Tyler Kleven", "EV_seconds": 985, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 281 }, { "player_id": 8482116, "player": "Tim St\u00fctzle", "EV_seconds": 1066, "PP_seconds": 276, "SH_seconds": 224 }, { "player_id": 8482105, "player": "Jake Sanderson", "EV_seconds": 535, "PP_seconds": 3, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478469, "player": "Thomas Chabot", "EV_seconds": 1381, "PP_seconds": 186, "SH_seconds": 156 }, { "player_id": 8480188, "player": "Fabian Zetterlund", "EV_seconds": 510, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 15010, "PP_seconds": 1778, "SH_seconds": 1752 }, "calculation": "Transfer same positional role seconds by strength, conserving total skater exposure; exact PP units and interactions unknown; goal rate unestimated." }, { "status": "ANALYST CONDITIONAL return from illness; not confirmed lineup", "changes": [ { "from": "Nikolas Matinpalo", "from_id": 8484321, "to": "Cameron Crotty", "to_id": 8480075, "EV_seconds": 695, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 260 } ], "rotation": [ { "player_id": 8477998, "player": "Warren Foegele", "EV_seconds": 542, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 15 }, { "player_id": 8483676, "player": "Stephen Halliday", "EV_seconds": 379, "PP_seconds": 98, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480208, "player": "Drake Batherson", "EV_seconds": 953, "PP_seconds": 226, "SH_seconds": 6 }, { "player_id": 8477444, "player": "Andre Burakovsky", "EV_seconds": 563, "PP_seconds": 141, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481528, "player": "Dylan Cozens", "EV_seconds": 997, "PP_seconds": 219, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481606, "player": "Jordan Spence", "EV_seconds": 1284, "PP_seconds": 13, "SH_seconds": 173 }, { "player_id": 8473512, "player": "Claude Giroux", "EV_seconds": 891, "PP_seconds": 211, "SH_seconds": 20 }, { "player_id": 8478020, "player": "Michael Amadio", "EV_seconds": 761, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 186 }, { "player_id": 8481596, "player": "Shane Pinto", "EV_seconds": 937, "PP_seconds": 150, "SH_seconds": 214 }, { "player_id": 8476393, "player": "Nick Cousins", "EV_seconds": 595, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 3 }, { "player_id": 8480075, "player": "Cameron Crotty", "EV_seconds": 695, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 260 }, { "player_id": 8484759, "player": "Carter Yakemchuk", "EV_seconds": 1062, "PP_seconds": 124, "SH_seconds": 6 }, { "player_id": 8482092, "player": "Ridly Greig", "EV_seconds": 874, "PP_seconds": 131, "SH_seconds": 208 }, { "player_id": 8482095, "player": "Tyler Kleven", "EV_seconds": 985, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 281 }, { "player_id": 8482116, "player": "Tim St\u00fctzle", "EV_seconds": 1066, "PP_seconds": 276, "SH_seconds": 224 }, { "player_id": 8484409, "player": "Hoyt Stanley", "EV_seconds": 535, "PP_seconds": 3, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478469, "player": "Thomas Chabot", "EV_seconds": 1381, "PP_seconds": 186, "SH_seconds": 156 }, { "player_id": 8480188, "player": "Fabian Zetterlund", "EV_seconds": 510, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 15010, "PP_seconds": 1778, "SH_seconds": 1752 }, "calculation": "Crotty for Matinpalo D-slot like-for-like EV/PP/SH seconds. Current official roster name Cameron Crotty reconciles preview Cam Crotty." } ], "PP_units": "Unconfirmed; actual PP workload retained without inference from roster order", "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 15010, "PP_seconds": 1778, "SH_seconds": 1752 }, "OT_note": "Reference may contain overtime; exact original exposures retained as empirical scenario. No guarantee same penalty/OT time; no season rate pooling with preseason.", "line_combinations": "Official Monday projected lines available FLA/BUF; other teams latest actual skaters as conditional replay, no invented pairings." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": 2026020076, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020076/boxscore", "playerId": 8481596, "name": { "default": "S. Pinto" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "21:41", "shifts": 29 }, { "event_id": 2026020076, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020076/boxscore", "playerId": 8482116, "name": { "default": "T. St\u00fctzle" }, "position": "C", "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "points": 2, "sog": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "toi": "26:06", "shifts": 30 }, { "event_id": 2026020076, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020076/boxscore", "playerId": 8480208, "name": { "default": "D. Batherson" }, "position": "R", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:45", "shifts": 27 }, { "event_id": 2026020076, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020076/boxscore", "playerId": 8480188, "name": { "default": "F. Zetterlund" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "08:30", "shifts": 14 }, { "event_id": 2026020076, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020076/boxscore", "playerId": 8476393, "name": { "default": "N. Cousins" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "09:58", "shifts": 14 }, { "event_id": 2026020076, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020076/boxscore", "playerId": 8478020, "name": { "default": "M. Amadio" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:47", "shifts": 24 }, { "event_id": 2026020076, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020076/boxscore", "playerId": 8481528, "name": { "default": "D. Cozens" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "20:16", "shifts": 26 }, { "event_id": 2026020076, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020076/boxscore", "playerId": 8473512, "name": { "default": "C. Giroux" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:42", "shifts": 23 }, { "event_id": 2026020076, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020076/boxscore", "playerId": 8483676, "name": { "default": "S. Halliday" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "07:57", "shifts": 10 }, { "event_id": 2026020076, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020076/boxscore", "playerId": 8477998, "name": { "default": "W. Foegele" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "09:17", "shifts": 15 }, { "event_id": 2026020076, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020076/boxscore", "playerId": 8482092, "name": { "default": "R. Greig" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "20:13", "shifts": 27 }, { "event_id": 2026020076, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020076/boxscore", "playerId": 8477444, "name": { "default": "A. Burakovsky" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "11:44", "shifts": 17 }, { "event_id": 2026020076, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020076/boxscore", "playerId": 8481606, "name": { "default": "J. Spence" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "24:30", "shifts": 28 }, { "event_id": 2026020076, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020076/boxscore", "playerId": 8484759, "name": { "default": "C. Yakemchuk" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:52", "shifts": 26 }, { "event_id": 2026020076, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020076/boxscore", "playerId": 8484321, "name": { "default": "N. Matinpalo" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:55", "shifts": 28 }, { "event_id": 2026020076, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020076/boxscore", "playerId": 8482095, "name": { "default": "T. Kleven" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "21:06", "shifts": 29 }, { "event_id": 2026020076, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020076/boxscore", "playerId": 8478469, "name": { "default": "T. Chabot" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "28:43", "shifts": 33 }, { "event_id": 2026020076, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020076/boxscore", "playerId": 8484409, "name": { "default": "H. Stanley" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "08:58", "shifts": 17 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Official since-July tracker checked; precautionary September-onward both-side ledger retained, offseason changes distinct.", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "version": "event-review-2026-10-12-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-12T05:39:57.160121+00:00", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892486", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 3.1384146341463417, 2.897032520325203 ], "Primary": [ 3.0909303314310934, 2.787967005714272 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.219505, 2.871945 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.219505, 2.871945 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 3.1384146341463417, 2.897032520325203 ], "Primary": [ 3.0909303314310934, 2.787967005714272 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.219505, 2.871945 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.219505, 2.871945 ] }, "adjusted_score_status": "Unestimated; original scores retained as base, not silently labeled adjusted.", "baseline_exposure": "Registered aggregates do not identify each player reference weight. All player workload variants are sensitivities, not calibrated corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED_ALLOWED: no validated role-controlled run/PPP/goal coefficient", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "football_minus3": 0, "uncertainty": "Projected role is not confirmed lineup. Preserve unknown numerical effect, teammate/opponent confounding and reference exposure.", "collector_source": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\Offensive-Replacement-Tracking\\capture-20261012T053148Z", "price_inputs_used": false, "sources": [ "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/timeonice?isAggregate=false&isGame=true&start=0&limit=100&cayenneExp=gameId%3D2026020076", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades", "https://www.nhl.com/devils/news/topic/game-day/njd-vs-ott/10-12-2026/2026020088/preview-2026020088" ], "findings": "Official October12 Devils preview lists Eklund/Zub/MacDermid on IR and Sanderson/Crotty day-to-day. Latest actual Oct10 role distribution already excludes them. Same-active18 branch plus Sanderson-for-Stanley and Crotty-for-Matinpalo defensive-slot return sensitivities retain offensive and PK exposure without assuming coach choice.", "reference_date": "2026-10-10", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8478020, "player": "Michael Amadio", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8480208, "player": "Drake Batherson", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8477444, "player": "Andre Burakovsky", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8476393, "player": "Nick Cousins", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8481528, "player": "Dylan Cozens", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8482667, "player": "William Eklund", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8477998, "player": "Warren Foegele", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8473512, "player": "Claude Giroux", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8482092, "player": "Ridly Greig", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8483676, "player": "Stephen Halliday", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8478173, "player": "Hayden Hodgson", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8481596, "player": "Shane Pinto", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8482116, "player": "Tim St\u00fctzle", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8480188, "player": "Fabian Zetterlund", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8478469, "player": "Thomas Chabot", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8480075, "player": "Cameron Crotty", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8482095, "player": "Tyler Kleven", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8484321, "player": "Nikolas Matinpalo", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8482105, "player": "Jake Sanderson", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8481606, "player": "Jordan Spence", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8484759, "player": "Carter Yakemchuk", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8481035, "player": "Samuel Ersson", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8476999, "player": "Linus Ullmark", "position": "G", 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"ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 201.2, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 12, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.4, "shifts": 119, "shiftsPerGame": 23.8, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Carter Yakemchuk", "teamAbbrevs": "OTT", "timeOnIce": 5072, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1014.4, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.62184 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_WORKLOAD_RECONCILED" }, { "sport": "NHL", "event_id": 2026020088, "team": "NJD", "review_status": "CONDITIONAL_OPPORTUNITY_REVIEW_COMPLETE", "incumbent_id": null, "replacement_ids": null, "expected_opportunities": { "scenario": "Most recent regular-season strength exposure repeated conditionally, with stated current projected changes", "reference": [ { "evTimeOnIce": 1227, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1227.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020071, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Pesce", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VAN", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8477488, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 11, 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"teamAbbrev": "NJD", "timeOnIce": 749, "timeOnIcePerGame": 749.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 41.61111 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 915, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 915.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020071, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Evangelista", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VAN", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482146, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 222, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 222.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 18, "shiftsPerGame": 18.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Luke Evangelista", "teamAbbrev": "NJD", "timeOnIce": 1137, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1137.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 63.16666 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 835, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 835.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020071, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Lombardi", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VAN", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8483695, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 11, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 11.0, 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"otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8478399, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 66, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 66.0, "shifts": 21, "shiftsPerGame": 21.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Jonas Siegenthaler", "teamAbbrev": "NJD", "timeOnIce": 1177, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1177.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 56.04761 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 880, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 880.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020071, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Dillon", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VAN", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8475455, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 117, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 117.0, "shifts": 23, "shiftsPerGame": 23.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Brenden Dillon", "teamAbbrev": "NJD", "timeOnIce": 997, "timeOnIcePerGame": 997.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 43.34782 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1192, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1192.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020071, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Hughes", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VAN", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482684, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 201, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 201.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 22, "shiftsPerGame": 22.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Luke Hughes", "teamAbbrev": "NJD", "timeOnIce": 1393, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1393.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 63.31818 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 730, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 730.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020071, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Gritsyuk", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VAN", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8481721, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 15, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 15.0, "shTimeOnIce": 32, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 32.0, "shifts": 16, "shiftsPerGame": 16.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Arseny Gritsyuk", "teamAbbrev": "NJD", "timeOnIce": 777, "timeOnIcePerGame": 777.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.5625 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 784, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 784.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020071, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Rodrigues", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VAN", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8478542, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 33, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 33.0, "shTimeOnIce": 19, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 19.0, "shifts": 17, "shiftsPerGame": 17.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Evan Rodrigues", "teamAbbrev": "NJD", "timeOnIce": 836, "timeOnIcePerGame": 836.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.17647 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 836, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 836.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020071, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Hischier", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VAN", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8480002, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 243, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 243.0, "shTimeOnIce": 60, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 60.0, "shifts": 20, "shiftsPerGame": 20.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Nico Hischier", "teamAbbrev": "NJD", "timeOnIce": 1139, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1139.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 56.95 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 754, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 754.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020071, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Glass", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VAN", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8479996, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 92, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 92.0, "shifts": 20, "shiftsPerGame": 20.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Cody Glass", "teamAbbrev": "NJD", "timeOnIce": 846, "timeOnIcePerGame": 846.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.3 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 698, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 698.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020071, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Bratt", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VAN", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8479407, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 228, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 228.0, "shTimeOnIce": 49, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 49.0, "shifts": 17, "shiftsPerGame": 17.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Jesper Bratt", "teamAbbrev": "NJD", "timeOnIce": 975, "timeOnIcePerGame": 975.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 57.35294 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1032, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1032.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020071, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Hamilton", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VAN", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8476462, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 53, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 53.0, "shTimeOnIce": 71, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 71.0, "shifts": 22, "shiftsPerGame": 22.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Dougie Hamilton", "teamAbbrev": "NJD", "timeOnIce": 1156, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1156.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 52.54545 } ], "projected_seconds_by_strength": [ { "player_id": 8477488, "player": "Brett Pesce", "EV_seconds": 1227, "PP_seconds": 11, "SH_seconds": 120 }, { "player_id": 8477511, "player": "Anthony Mantha", "EV_seconds": 580, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478414, "player": "Timo Meier", "EV_seconds": 979, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 34 }, { "player_id": 8481559, "player": "Jack Hughes", "EV_seconds": 745, "PP_seconds": 243, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480990, "player": "Declan Chisholm", "EV_seconds": 887, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480003, "player": "Jesper Boqvist", "EV_seconds": 739, "PP_seconds": 10, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482146, "player": "Luke Evangelista", "EV_seconds": 915, "PP_seconds": 222, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483695, "player": "Amadeus Lombardi", "EV_seconds": 835, "PP_seconds": 11, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482110, "player": "Dawson Mercer", "EV_seconds": 767, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 84 }, { "player_id": 8478399, "player": "Jonas Siegenthaler", "EV_seconds": 1111, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 66 }, { "player_id": 8475455, "player": "Brenden Dillon", "EV_seconds": 880, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 117 }, { "player_id": 8482684, "player": "Luke Hughes", "EV_seconds": 1192, "PP_seconds": 201, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481721, "player": "Arseny Gritsyuk", "EV_seconds": 730, "PP_seconds": 15, "SH_seconds": 32 }, { "player_id": 8478542, "player": "Evan Rodrigues", "EV_seconds": 784, "PP_seconds": 33, "SH_seconds": 19 }, { "player_id": 8480002, "player": "Nico Hischier", "EV_seconds": 836, "PP_seconds": 243, "SH_seconds": 60 }, { "player_id": 8479996, "player": "Cody Glass", "EV_seconds": 754, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 92 }, { "player_id": 8479407, "player": "Jesper Bratt", "EV_seconds": 698, "PP_seconds": 228, "SH_seconds": 49 }, { "player_id": 8476462, "player": "Dougie Hamilton", "EV_seconds": 1032, "PP_seconds": 53, "SH_seconds": 71 } ], "projected_changes": [], "conditional_return_branches": [ { "status": "ANALYST CONDITIONAL, not announced minutes/lines", "changes": [ { "from": "Declan Chisholm", "from_id": 8480990, "to": "Johnathan Kovacevic", "to_id": 8480192, "EV_seconds": 887, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "rotation": [ { "player_id": 8477488, "player": "Brett Pesce", "EV_seconds": 1227, "PP_seconds": 11, "SH_seconds": 120 }, { "player_id": 8477511, "player": "Anthony Mantha", "EV_seconds": 580, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478414, "player": "Timo Meier", "EV_seconds": 979, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 34 }, { "player_id": 8481559, "player": "Jack Hughes", "EV_seconds": 745, "PP_seconds": 243, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480192, "player": "Johnathan Kovacevic", "EV_seconds": 887, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480003, "player": "Jesper Boqvist", "EV_seconds": 739, "PP_seconds": 10, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482146, "player": "Luke Evangelista", "EV_seconds": 915, "PP_seconds": 222, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483695, "player": "Amadeus Lombardi", "EV_seconds": 835, "PP_seconds": 11, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482110, "player": "Dawson Mercer", "EV_seconds": 767, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 84 }, { "player_id": 8478399, "player": "Jonas Siegenthaler", "EV_seconds": 1111, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 66 }, { "player_id": 8475455, "player": "Brenden Dillon", "EV_seconds": 880, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 117 }, { "player_id": 8482684, "player": "Luke Hughes", "EV_seconds": 1192, "PP_seconds": 201, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481721, "player": "Arseny Gritsyuk", "EV_seconds": 730, "PP_seconds": 15, "SH_seconds": 32 }, { "player_id": 8478542, "player": "Evan Rodrigues", "EV_seconds": 784, "PP_seconds": 33, "SH_seconds": 19 }, { "player_id": 8480002, "player": "Nico Hischier", "EV_seconds": 836, "PP_seconds": 243, "SH_seconds": 60 }, { "player_id": 8479996, "player": "Cody Glass", "EV_seconds": 754, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 92 }, { "player_id": 8479407, "player": "Jesper Bratt", "EV_seconds": 698, "PP_seconds": 228, "SH_seconds": 49 }, { "player_id": 8476462, "player": "Dougie Hamilton", "EV_seconds": 1032, "PP_seconds": 53, "SH_seconds": 71 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 15691, "PP_seconds": 1270, "SH_seconds": 744 }, "calculation": "Transfer same positional role seconds by strength, conserving total skater exposure; exact PP units and interactions unknown; goal rate unestimated." }, { "status": "ANALYST CONDITIONAL, not announced minutes/lines", "changes": [ { "from": "Amadeus Lombardi", "from_id": 8483695, "to": "Connor Brown", "to_id": 8477015, "EV_seconds": 835, "PP_seconds": 11, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "rotation": [ { "player_id": 8477488, "player": "Brett Pesce", "EV_seconds": 1227, "PP_seconds": 11, "SH_seconds": 120 }, { "player_id": 8477511, "player": "Anthony Mantha", "EV_seconds": 580, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478414, "player": "Timo Meier", "EV_seconds": 979, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 34 }, { "player_id": 8481559, "player": "Jack Hughes", "EV_seconds": 745, "PP_seconds": 243, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480990, "player": "Declan Chisholm", "EV_seconds": 887, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480003, "player": "Jesper Boqvist", "EV_seconds": 739, "PP_seconds": 10, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482146, "player": "Luke Evangelista", "EV_seconds": 915, "PP_seconds": 222, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477015, "player": "Connor Brown", "EV_seconds": 835, "PP_seconds": 11, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482110, "player": "Dawson Mercer", "EV_seconds": 767, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 84 }, { "player_id": 8478399, "player": "Jonas Siegenthaler", "EV_seconds": 1111, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 66 }, { "player_id": 8475455, "player": "Brenden Dillon", "EV_seconds": 880, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 117 }, { "player_id": 8482684, "player": "Luke Hughes", "EV_seconds": 1192, "PP_seconds": 201, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481721, "player": "Arseny Gritsyuk", "EV_seconds": 730, "PP_seconds": 15, "SH_seconds": 32 }, { "player_id": 8478542, "player": "Evan Rodrigues", "EV_seconds": 784, "PP_seconds": 33, "SH_seconds": 19 }, { "player_id": 8480002, "player": "Nico Hischier", "EV_seconds": 836, "PP_seconds": 243, "SH_seconds": 60 }, { "player_id": 8479996, "player": "Cody Glass", "EV_seconds": 754, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 92 }, { "player_id": 8479407, "player": "Jesper Bratt", "EV_seconds": 698, "PP_seconds": 228, "SH_seconds": 49 }, { "player_id": 8476462, "player": "Dougie Hamilton", "EV_seconds": 1032, "PP_seconds": 53, "SH_seconds": 71 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 15691, "PP_seconds": 1270, "SH_seconds": 744 }, "calculation": "Transfer same positional role seconds by strength, conserving total skater exposure; exact PP units and interactions unknown; goal rate unestimated." } ], "PP_units": "Unconfirmed; actual PP workload retained without inference from roster order", "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 15691, "PP_seconds": 1270, "SH_seconds": 744 }, "OT_note": "Reference may contain overtime; exact original exposures retained as empirical scenario. No guarantee same penalty/OT time; no season rate pooling with preseason.", "line_combinations": "Official Monday projected lines available FLA/BUF; other teams latest actual skaters as conditional replay, no invented pairings." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": 2026020071, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "NJD", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020071/boxscore", "playerId": 8479996, "name": { "default": "C. Glass" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:06", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020071, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "NJD", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020071/boxscore", "playerId": 8480002, "name": { "default": "N. Hischier" }, "position": "C", "goals": 2, "assists": 1, "points": 3, "sog": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 2, "toi": "18:59", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020071, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "NJD", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020071/boxscore", "playerId": 8478542, "name": { "default": "E. Rodrigues" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "13:56", "shifts": 17 }, { "event_id": 2026020071, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "NJD", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020071/boxscore", "playerId": 8478414, "name": { "default": "T. Meier" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:53", "shifts": 16 }, { "event_id": 2026020071, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "NJD", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020071/boxscore", "playerId": 8477511, "name": { "default": "A. Mantha" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "09:40", "shifts": 14 }, { "event_id": 2026020071, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "NJD", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020071/boxscore", "playerId": 8479407, "name": { "default": "J. Bratt" }, "position": "L", "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "points": 2, "sog": 5, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "toi": "16:15", "shifts": 17 }, { "event_id": 2026020071, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "NJD", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020071/boxscore", "playerId": 8480003, "name": { "default": "J. Boqvist" }, "position": "C", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "12:29", "shifts": 18 }, { "event_id": 2026020071, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "NJD", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020071/boxscore", "playerId": 8482146, "name": { "default": "L. Evangelista" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:57", "shifts": 18 }, { "event_id": 2026020071, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "NJD", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020071/boxscore", "playerId": 8481721, "name": { "default": "A. Gritsyuk" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "12:57", "shifts": 16 }, { "event_id": 2026020071, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "NJD", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020071/boxscore", "playerId": 8481559, "name": { "default": "J. Hughes" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 2, "points": 2, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:28", "shifts": 17 }, { "event_id": 2026020071, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "NJD", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020071/boxscore", "playerId": 8482110, "name": { "default": "D. Mercer" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:11", "shifts": 17 }, { "event_id": 2026020071, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "NJD", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020071/boxscore", "playerId": 8483695, "name": { "default": "A. Lombardi" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:06", "shifts": 16 }, { "event_id": 2026020071, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "NJD", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020071/boxscore", "playerId": 8475455, "name": { "default": "B. Dillon" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:37", "shifts": 23 }, { "event_id": 2026020071, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "NJD", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020071/boxscore", "playerId": 8476462, "name": { "default": "D. Hamilton" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:16", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020071, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "NJD", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020071/boxscore", "playerId": 8477488, "name": { "default": "B. Pesce" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "22:38", "shifts": 24 }, { "event_id": 2026020071, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "NJD", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020071/boxscore", "playerId": 8482684, "name": { "default": "L. Hughes" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "23:13", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020071, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "NJD", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020071/boxscore", "playerId": 8480990, "name": { "default": "D. Chisholm" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:47", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020071, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "NJD", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020071/boxscore", "playerId": 8478399, "name": { "default": "J. Siegenthaler" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:37", "shifts": 21 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Official since-July tracker checked; precautionary September-onward both-side ledger retained, offseason changes distinct.", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "version": "event-review-2026-10-12-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-12T05:39:57.160121+00:00", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892486", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 3.1384146341463417, 2.897032520325203 ], "Primary": [ 3.0909303314310934, 2.787967005714272 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.219505, 2.871945 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.219505, 2.871945 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 3.1384146341463417, 2.897032520325203 ], "Primary": [ 3.0909303314310934, 2.787967005714272 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.219505, 2.871945 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.219505, 2.871945 ] }, "adjusted_score_status": "Unestimated; original scores retained as base, not silently labeled adjusted.", "baseline_exposure": "Registered aggregates do not identify each player reference weight. All player workload variants are sensitivities, not calibrated corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED_ALLOWED: no validated role-controlled run/PPP/goal coefficient", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "football_minus3": 0, "uncertainty": "Projected role is not confirmed lineup. Preserve unknown numerical effect, teammate/opponent confounding and reference exposure.", "collector_source": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\Offensive-Replacement-Tracking\\capture-20261012T053148Z", "price_inputs_used": false, "sources": [ "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/timeonice?isAggregate=false&isGame=true&start=0&limit=100&cayenneExp=gameId%3D2026020071", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades", "https://www.nhl.com/devils/news/topic/game-day/njd-vs-ott/10-12-2026/2026020088/preview-2026020088" ], "findings": "Official October12 preview says Kovacevic removed from IR and may play one of the back-to-back games; Brown DTD, Bjugstad/Casey out. Latest actual reference includes Lombardi and Chisholm. Conditional Kovacevic-for-Chisholm and Brown-for-Lombardi role chain retained with other line labels unknown; goalie choice separately unconfirmed.", "reference_date": "2026-10-10", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8480003, "player": "Jesper Boqvist", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8479407, "player": "Jesper Bratt", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8477015, "player": "Connor Brown", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8482146, "player": "Luke Evangelista", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8479996, "player": "Cody Glass", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8481721, "player": "Arseny Gritsyuk", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8480002, "player": "Nico Hischier", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8481559, "player": "Jack Hughes", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8483695, "player": "Amadeus Lombardi", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8477511, "player": "Anthony Mantha", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8478414, "player": "Timo Meier", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8482110, "player": "Dawson Mercer", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8476474, "player": "Stefan Noesen", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8478542, "player": "Evan Rodrigues", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8480990, "player": "Declan Chisholm", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8475455, "player": "Brenden Dillon", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8476462, "player": "Dougie Hamilton", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8482684, "player": "Luke Hughes", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8480192, "player": "Johnathan Kovacevic", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8477488, "player": "Brett Pesce", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8478399, "player": "Jonas Siegenthaler", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8474596, "player": "Jake Allen", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8482076, "player": "Nico Daws", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8482465, "player": "R\u00e9mi Poirier", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" } ], "comparison_player_ids": [ 8474596, 8475455, 8476462, 8476474, 8477015, 8477488, 8477511, 8478399, 8478414, 8478542, 8479407, 8479996, 8480002, 8480003, 8480192, 8480990, 8481559, 8481721, 8482076, 8482110, 8482146, 8482465, 8482684, 8483695 ], "two_season_comparison_rows": [ { "seasonId": 20242025, "shootingPct": 0.04166, "otGoals": 0, "points": 16, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1114.5365, "shGoals": 0, "evGoals": 2, "gamesPlayed": 82, "positionCode": "D", "goals": 2, "shots": 48, "shPoints": 1, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 0, "playerId": 8475455, "ppGoals": 0, "evPoints": 15, "teamAbbrevs": "NJD", "assists": 14, "skaterFullName": "Brenden Dillon", "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "shootingPct": 0.04838, "otGoals": 0, "points": 40, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1191.3437, "shGoals": 0, "evGoals": 4, "gamesPlayed": 64, "positionCode": "D", "goals": 9, "shots": 186, "shPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "ppPoints": 15, "playerId": 8476462, "ppGoals": 5, "evPoints": 25, "teamAbbrevs": "NJD", "assists": 31, "skaterFullName": "Dougie Hamilton", "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "shootingPct": 0.13333, "otGoals": 1, "points": 41, "timeOnIcePerGame": 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"https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "shootingPct": 0.0303, "otGoals": 0, "points": 17, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1279.1805, "shGoals": 1, "evGoals": 2, "gamesPlayed": 72, "positionCode": "D", "goals": 3, "shots": 99, "shPoints": 1, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 0, "playerId": 8477488, "ppGoals": 0, "evPoints": 16, "teamAbbrevs": "NJD", "assists": 14, "skaterFullName": "Brett Pesce", "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "shootingPct": 0.26666, "otGoals": 0, "points": 7, "timeOnIcePerGame": 834.1538, "shGoals": 1, "evGoals": 2, "gamesPlayed": 13, "positionCode": "R", "goals": 4, "shots": 15, "shPoints": 1, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "ppPoints": 1, "playerId": 8477511, "ppGoals": 1, "evPoints": 5, "teamAbbrevs": "CGY", "assists": 3, "skaterFullName": "Anthony Mantha", "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "shootingPct": 0.03846, "otGoals": 0, "points": 9, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1176.0909, "shGoals": 0, "evGoals": 2, "gamesPlayed": 55, "positionCode": "D", "goals": 2, "shots": 52, "shPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 0, "playerId": 8478399, "ppGoals": 0, "evPoints": 9, "teamAbbrevs": "NJD", "assists": 7, "skaterFullName": "Jonas Siegenthaler", "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": 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"playerId": 8480002, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 1198, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 299.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 492, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 123.0, "shifts": 85, "shiftsPerGame": 21.25, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Nico Hischier", "teamAbbrevs": "NJD", "timeOnIce": 4822, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1205.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 56.72941 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1328, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 664.0, "gamesPlayed": 2, "lastName": "Boqvist", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8480003, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 10, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 5.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 33, "shiftsPerGame": 16.5, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Jesper Boqvist", "teamAbbrevs": "NJD", "timeOnIce": 1338, "timeOnIcePerGame": 669.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 40.54545 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3284, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 821.0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Chisholm", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8480990, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 49, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 12.25, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 92, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 23.0, "shifts": 74, "shiftsPerGame": 18.5, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Declan Chisholm", "teamAbbrevs": "NJD", "timeOnIce": 3425, "timeOnIcePerGame": 856.25, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.28378 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3800, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 950.0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Hughes", "otTimeOnIce": 132, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 132.0, "playerId": 8481559, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 1249, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 312.25, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 40, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 10.0, "shifts": 84, "shiftsPerGame": 21.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Jack Hughes", "teamAbbrevs": "NJD", "timeOnIce": 5089, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1272.25, "timeOnIcePerShift": 60.58333 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3011, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 752.75, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Gritsyuk", "otTimeOnIce": 47, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 47.0, "playerId": 8481721, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 454, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 113.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 65, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 16.25, "shifts": 69, "shiftsPerGame": 17.25, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Arseny Gritsyuk", "teamAbbrevs": "NJD", "timeOnIce": 3530, "timeOnIcePerGame": 882.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 51.15942 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 2852, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 713.0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Mercer", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8482110, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 59, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 14.75, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 474, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 118.5, "shifts": 69, "shiftsPerGame": 17.25, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Dawson Mercer", "teamAbbrevs": "NJD", "timeOnIce": 3385, "timeOnIcePerGame": 846.25, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.05797 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3282, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 820.5, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Evangelista", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8482146, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 1178, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 294.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 73, "shiftsPerGame": 18.25, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Luke Evangelista", "teamAbbrevs": "NJD", "timeOnIce": 4460, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1115.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 61.09589 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4420, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1105.0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Hughes", "otTimeOnIce": 106, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 106.0, "playerId": 8482684, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 1163, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 290.75, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 141, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 35.25, "shifts": 97, "shiftsPerGame": 24.25, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Luke Hughes", "teamAbbrevs": "NJD", "timeOnIce": 5724, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1431.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 59.0103 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 2335, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 583.75, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Lombardi", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8483695, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 99, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 24.75, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 57, "shiftsPerGame": 14.25, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Amadeus Lombardi", "teamAbbrevs": "NJD", "timeOnIce": 2434, "timeOnIcePerGame": 608.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.70175 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_WORKLOAD_RECONCILED" } ], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "Ottawa Senators at New Jersey Devils", "market": { "id": "401892486", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892486", "requested_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.184562+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.496784+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": 185.0, "away_line_price": -225.0, "total": 5.5, "under_line": 5.5, "over_price": -125.0, "under_price": 105.0, "home_ml": -135.0, "away_ml": 114.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 5.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.2413821138211385, "combined": 6.0354471544715445, "spread_buffer": -1.7413821138211385, "total_difference": 0.5354471544715445 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.2413821138211385, "combined": 6.0354471544715445, "spread_buffer": -1.7413821138211385, "total_difference": 0.5354471544715445 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.3029633257168216, "combined": 5.878897337145365, "spread_buffer": -1.8029633257168216, "total_difference": 0.3788973371453652 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.3029633257168216, "combined": 5.878897337145365, "spread_buffer": -1.8029633257168216, "total_difference": 0.3788973371453652 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.34755999999999965, "combined": 6.09145, "spread_buffer": -1.8475599999999996, "total_difference": 0.59145 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.34755999999999965, "combined": 6.09145, "spread_buffer": -1.8475599999999996, "total_difference": 0.59145 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.34755999999999965, "combined": 6.09145, "spread_buffer": -1.8475599999999996, "total_difference": 0.59145 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.34755999999999965, "combined": 6.09145, "spread_buffer": -1.8475599999999996, "total_difference": 0.59145 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401898402", "sport": "NBA", "identity": { "id": "401898402", "date": "2026-10-12T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "1827", "fullName": "State Farm Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Atlanta", "state": "GA" } }, "away": "25", "away_name": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "1", "home_name": "Atlanta Hawks", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 116.03658536585365, 114.67073170731707 ], "adjusted_score": [ 116.03658536585365, 114.67073170731707 ], "conditional_score": [ 116.03658536585365, 114.67073170731707 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0.0, "prior_rates": [ 119.02439024390245, 107.8780487804878 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0.0, "prior_rates": [ 118.46341463414635, 116.04878048780488 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.69817073170732, "mean_margin_error": 6.306910569105692, "mean_total_error": 21.274390243902435, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 97.536585, 137.536585 ], "home": [ 93.17073500000001, 133.170735 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 117.78008340782701, 112.97153732564136 ], "adjusted_score": [ 117.78008340782701, 112.97153732564136 ], "conditional_score": [ 117.78008340782701, 112.97153732564136 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2797, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-12T01:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "aa90b1c3f9cc2c33b6720a7fa6bc2faf0a752c2f4516b125280a4621fb7efbe4" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.176706670504595, "mean_margin_error": 7.034104665170351, "mean_total_error": 18.4100562470998, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 97.536585, 137.536585 ], "home": [ 93.17073500000001, 133.170735 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 117.536585, 113.17073500000001 ], "adjusted_score": [ 117.536585, 113.17073500000001 ], "conditional_score": [ 117.536585, 113.17073500000001 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 119.02439, "pa": 107.87805 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 118.46342, "pa": 116.04878 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Previous complete NBA regular season used for preseason; WNBA complete regular season if any game." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 11.200203666666669, "mean_margin_error": 7.310977333333336, "mean_total_error": 21.274390666666665, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 97.536585, 137.536585 ], "home": [ 93.17073500000001, 133.170735 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 117.536585, 113.17073500000001 ], "adjusted_score": [ 117.536585, 113.17073500000001 ], "conditional_score": [ 117.536585, 113.17073500000001 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 119.02439, "pa": 107.87805 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 118.46342, "pa": 116.04878 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Previous complete NBA regular season used for preseason; WNBA complete regular season if any game." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 11.200203666666669, "mean_margin_error": 7.310977333333336, "mean_total_error": 21.274390666666665, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 97.536585, 137.536585 ], "home": [ 93.17073500000001, 133.170735 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Atlanta Hawks: Oct10 McCollum/Daniels/Dort/Johnson/Okongwu first unit and Wiggins/Kispert reserve minutes establish observed role redistribution. Alexander-Walker, Finney-Smith, Gilbert, Gueye and Veesaar roster flags remain dated availability evidence; no current clearance inferred. September22 Finney-Smith trade and outgoing Nembhard/Hield reviewed on both sides. Oklahoma City Thunder: League-hosted Oct10 update says regulars will not travel to Atlanta; Sorber knee, Topic back and Holmgren quadriceps remain distinct medical limitations. Remove the listed nontraveling regulars from Oct7 observed rotation and proportionally distribute minutes/shots/creation to demonstrated participating reserves. This is an analyst sensitivity, not a coach plan. First back-to-back game cannot be modeled as a normal starter rotation.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NBA preseason rotations are conditional reference allocations, not confirmed minutes.", "reviewer": "Parent reconciliation of independent evidence" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independent arithmetic reviewed current nonfootball outputs; London remains outside comparable NBA history. Classic/Primary provisional; ON/OFF identical registered means. Opportunity scenarios do not supply a validated scoring conversion.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "State Farm Arena; listed 2026-10-12T23:00Z. Official NBA home-team schedule confirms Oct12 opponent, venue, tip time and preseason stage. Rotation volatility; NBA remains tracking-only.", "details": { "event_id": "401898402", "sport": "NBA", "away": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "home": "Atlanta Hawks", "start_et": "2026-10-12T19:00:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-12T23:00Z", "venue": { "id": "1827", "fullName": "State Farm Arena", "address": { "city": "Atlanta", "state": "GA" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 1, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0.0", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Mon, October 12th at 7:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/12 - 7:00 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/scoreboard?dates=20261012&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T05:33:49.648158+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612737/schedule" ], "context": [ "Official NBA home-team schedule confirms Oct12 opponent, venue, tip time and preseason stage. Rotation volatility; NBA remains tracking-only." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "previous_game": { "id": "401908620", "date": "2026-10-08T00:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "2559", "fullName": "Paycom Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Oklahoma City", "state": "OK" } }, "away": "15", "away_name": "Milwaukee Bucks", "away_score": 128.0, "home": "25", "home_name": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "home_score": 126.0, "day": 20734.0 }, "days_between_start_dates": 5, "interpretation": "Calendar gap from last retained completed game, not verified flight/rest hours. No automatic rest/travel score adjustment.", "limitation": null }, { "side": "home", "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "previous_game": { "id": "401898396", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "2183", "fullName": "Gainbridge Fieldhouse", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Indianapolis", "state": "IN" } }, "away": "1", "away_name": "Atlanta Hawks", "away_score": 119.0, "home": "11", "home_name": "Indiana Pacers", "home_score": 117.0, "day": 20736.958333333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar gap from last retained completed game, not verified flight/rest hours. No automatic rest/travel score adjustment.", "limitation": null } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct weather adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "stage_label": "Preseason / tracking only" }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor arena; no direct weather adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct weather adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. 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"https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898388", "MIN": "15", "PTS": "12", "FG": "3-6", "OREB": "0", "3PT": "2-3", "TO": "0", "FT": "4-5", "AST": "0" }, { "event_id": "401898388", "date": "2026-10-05T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "player_id": "4712902", "player": "Cameron Corhen", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898388", "MIN": "3", "PTS": "0", "FG": "0-1", "OREB": "1", "3PT": "0-0", "TO": "0", "FT": "0-0", "AST": "0" }, { "event_id": "401898388", "date": "2026-10-05T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "player_id": "4873201", "player": "Asa Newell", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898388", "MIN": "22", "PTS": "12", "FG": "5-9", "OREB": "5", "3PT": "0-1", "TO": "2", "FT": "2-2", "AST": "2" }, { "event_id": "401898388", "date": "2026-10-05T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "player_id": "5106262", "player": "Zuby Ejiofor", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898388", "MIN": "14", "PTS": "5", "FG": "2-5", "OREB": "0", "3PT": "0-1", "TO": "0", "FT": "1-2", "AST": "2" }, { "event_id": "401898388", "date": "2026-10-05T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "player_id": "3146557", "player": "Jock Landale", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898388", "MIN": "16", "PTS": "4", "FG": "1-5", "OREB": "4", "3PT": "0-2", "TO": "0", "FT": "2-2", "AST": "3" }, { "event_id": "401898388", "date": "2026-10-05T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "player_id": "4397183", "player": "Aaron Wiggins", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898388", "MIN": "11", "PTS": "7", "FG": "2-4", "OREB": "0", "3PT": "1-2", "TO": "0", "FT": "2-2", "AST": "0" }, { "event_id": "401898388", "date": "2026-10-05T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "player_id": "4431941", "player": "RayJ Dennis", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898388", "MIN": "18", "PTS": "12", "FG": "5-10", "OREB": "0", "3PT": "2-5", "TO": "3", "FT": "0-0", "AST": "3" }, { "event_id": "401898388", "date": "2026-10-05T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "player_id": "4585618", "player": "Keshon Gilbert", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898388", "MIN": "15", "PTS": "2", "FG": "1-3", "OREB": "0", "3PT": "0-0", "TO": "3", "FT": "0-0", "AST": "2" }, { "event_id": "401898388", "date": "2026-10-05T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "player_id": "4683857", "player": "Kobe Johnson", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898388", "MIN": "8", "PTS": "0", "FG": "0-0", "OREB": "0", "3PT": "0-0", "TO": "0", "FT": "0-0", "AST": "1" } ], "reference_date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "comparison_player_ids": [ "2490149", "2578185", "3146557", "4278039", "4280151", "4397020", "4397183", "4431680", "4431714", "4431941", "4585618", "4683857", "4701230", "4712863", "4712902", "4869342", "4873201", "5105571", "5106262", "5149077" ], "findings": "Oct10 McCollum/Daniels/Dort/Johnson/Okongwu first unit and Wiggins/Kispert reserve minutes establish observed role redistribution. Alexander-Walker, Finney-Smith, Gilbert, Gueye and Veesaar roster flags remain dated availability evidence; no current clearance inferred. September22 Finney-Smith trade and outgoing Nembhard/Hield reviewed on both sides.", "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_240_MINUTES_SHOTS_CREATION_RECONCILED", "two_season_coverage": [ { "player_id": "4278039", "player": "Nickeil Alexander-Walker", "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4278039", "player": "Nickeil Alexander-Walker", "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4712902", "player": "Cameron Corhen", "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "NO_RETURNED_NBA_SEASON_NOT_ZERO" }, { "player_id": "4712902", "player": "Cameron Corhen", "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "NO_RETURNED_NBA_SEASON_NOT_ZERO" }, { "player_id": "4869342", "player": "Dyson Daniels", "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4869342", "player": "Dyson Daniels", "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4431941", "player": "RayJ Dennis", "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4431941", "player": "RayJ Dennis", "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4397020", "player": "Luguentz Dort", "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4397020", "player": "Luguentz Dort", "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "5106262", "player": "Zuby Ejiofor", "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "NO_RETURNED_NBA_SEASON_NOT_ZERO" }, { "player_id": "5106262", "player": "Zuby Ejiofor", "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "NO_RETURNED_NBA_SEASON_NOT_ZERO" }, { "player_id": "2578185", "player": "Dorian Finney-Smith", "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "2578185", "player": "Dorian Finney-Smith", "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "5149077", "player": "Kingston Flemings", "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "NO_RETURNED_NBA_SEASON_NOT_ZERO" }, { "player_id": "5149077", "player": "Kingston Flemings", "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "NO_RETURNED_NBA_SEASON_NOT_ZERO" }, { "player_id": "4585618", "player": "Keshon Gilbert", "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "NO_RETURNED_NBA_SEASON_NOT_ZERO" }, { "player_id": "4585618", "player": "Keshon Gilbert", "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4712863", "player": "Mouhamed Gueye", "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4712863", "player": "Mouhamed Gueye", "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4701230", "player": "Jalen Johnson", "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4701230", "player": "Jalen Johnson", "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4683857", "player": "Kobe Johnson", "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "NO_RETURNED_NBA_SEASON_NOT_ZERO" }, { "player_id": "4683857", "player": "Kobe Johnson", "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "NO_RETURNED_NBA_SEASON_NOT_ZERO" }, { "player_id": "4280151", "player": "Corey Kispert", "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4280151", "player": "Corey Kispert", "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "3146557", "player": "Jock Landale", "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "3146557", "player": "Jock Landale", "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "2490149", "player": "CJ McCollum", "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "2490149", "player": "CJ McCollum", "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4873201", "player": "Asa Newell", "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "NO_RETURNED_NBA_SEASON_NOT_ZERO" }, { "player_id": "4873201", "player": "Asa Newell", "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4431680", "player": "Onyeka Okongwu", "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4431680", "player": "Onyeka Okongwu", "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "5105571", "player": "Henri Veesaar", "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "NO_RETURNED_NBA_SEASON_NOT_ZERO" }, { "player_id": "5105571", "player": "Henri Veesaar", "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "NO_RETURNED_NBA_SEASON_NOT_ZERO" }, { "player_id": "4397183", "player": "Aaron Wiggins", "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4397183", "player": "Aaron Wiggins", "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4431714", "player": "Jalen Wilson", "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4431714", "player": "Jalen Wilson", "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" } ] }, { "sport": "NBA", "event_id": "401898402", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "review_status": "CONDITIONAL_OPPORTUNITY_REVIEW_COMPLETE", "incumbent_id": null, "replacement_ids": null, "expected_opportunities": { "rotation": [ { "player_id": "5174983", "player": "Aday Mara", "reference_starter": true, "reference_minutes": 25.0, "conditional_minutes": 50.0, "conditional_FGA": 24.473684210526315, "conditional_FTA": 4.588235294117647, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.25, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.0, "reference_TS_proxy": 0.9717314487632509 }, { "player_id": "4684208", "player": "Brooks Barnhizer", "reference_starter": false, "reference_minutes": 19.0, "conditional_minutes": 38.0, "conditional_FGA": 14.68421052631579, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_3PA": 6.133333333333334, "creation_assist_share": 0.125, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS_proxy": 0.5 }, { "player_id": "5116468", "player": "Andrew Holifield", "reference_starter": false, "reference_minutes": 6.0, "conditional_minutes": 12.0, "conditional_FGA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 3.0588235294117645, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.125, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": null, "reference_TS_proxy": 1.1363636363636365 }, { "player_id": "5109790", "player": "Christoph Tilly", "reference_starter": false, "reference_minutes": 8.0, "conditional_minutes": 16.0, "conditional_FGA": 2.4473684210526314, "conditional_FTA": 3.0588235294117645, "conditional_3PA": 3.066666666666667, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS_proxy": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "4897155", "player": "Anthony Pritchard", "reference_starter": false, "reference_minutes": 10.0, "conditional_minutes": 20.0, "conditional_FGA": 4.894736842105263, "conditional_FTA": 6.117647058823529, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.25, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS_proxy": 0.26595744680851063 }, { "player_id": "5105800", "player": "Josh Dix", "reference_starter": false, "reference_minutes": 14.0, "conditional_minutes": 28.0, "conditional_FGA": 12.236842105263158, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_3PA": 15.333333333333334, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3, "reference_TS_proxy": 0.3 }, { "player_id": "5106270", "player": "Otega Oweh", "reference_starter": false, "reference_minutes": 16.0, "conditional_minutes": 32.0, "conditional_FGA": 7.342105263157895, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3333333333333333, "reference_TS_proxy": 0.3333333333333333 }, { "player_id": "5241364", "player": "Bennett Stirtz", "reference_starter": false, "reference_minutes": 22.0, "conditional_minutes": 44.0, "conditional_FGA": 26.92105263157895, "conditional_FTA": 9.176470588235293, "conditional_3PA": 21.466666666666665, "creation_assist_share": 0.25, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.7272727272727273, "reference_TS_proxy": 0.7331378299120235 } ], "conditional_team_minutes": 240.0, "reference_team_minutes": 240.0, "conditional_team_FGA": 93.0, "conditional_team_FTA": 26.0, "conditional_team_3PA": 46.0, "calculation": "Reference eligible minutes normalized to240; fixed reference team FGA/3PA/FTA redistributed proportional to surviving observed attempts. Creation tracked as share of observed assists, never added to scorer points. This does not calibrate PPP.", "excluded_players": [ "Ajay Mitchell", "Alex Caruso", "Cason Wallace", "Chet Holmgren", "Isaiah Hartenstein", "Jalen Williams", "Jared McCain", "Jaylin Williams", "Kenrich Williams", "Nikola Topic", "Shai Gilgeous-Alexander", "Thomas Sorber" ], "scenario": "Latest actual preseason roles replay, after source-supported roster exclusions", "status": "ANALYST CONDITIONAL 240 MINUTE SCENARIO", "alternate_actual_preseason_reference_branches": [ { "reference_date": "2026-10-07T00:00Z", "rotation": [ { "player_id": "5174983", "player": "Aday Mara", "reference_starter": true, "reference_minutes": 18.0, "conditional_minutes": 22.857142857142858, "conditional_FGA": 7.169811320754717, "conditional_FTA": 2.8, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.16666666666666666, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 1.0, "reference_TS_proxy": 1.0204081632653061 }, { "player_id": "5241364", "player": "Bennett Stirtz", "reference_starter": true, "reference_minutes": 31.0, "conditional_minutes": 39.36507936507937, "conditional_FGA": 12.90566037735849, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_3PA": 10.421052631578947, "creation_assist_share": 0.3333333333333333, "reference_AST": 6.0, "reference_TO": 4.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.8333333333333334, "reference_TS_proxy": 0.8333333333333334 }, { "player_id": "4684208", "player": "Brooks Barnhizer", "reference_starter": false, "reference_minutes": 26.0, "conditional_minutes": 33.01587301587302, "conditional_FGA": 7.169811320754717, "conditional_FTA": 7.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.736842105263158, "creation_assist_share": 0.16666666666666666, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.9, "reference_TS_proxy": 0.8333333333333333 }, { "player_id": "5116468", "player": "Andrew Holifield", "reference_starter": false, "reference_minutes": 7.0, "conditional_minutes": 8.88888888888889, "conditional_FGA": 5.735849056603773, "conditional_FTA": 2.8, "conditional_3PA": 3.473684210526316, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.25, "reference_TS_proxy": 0.4098360655737705 }, { "player_id": "5109790", "player": "Christoph Tilly", "reference_starter": false, "reference_minutes": 25.0, "conditional_minutes": 31.746031746031747, "conditional_FGA": 10.037735849056604, "conditional_FTA": 2.8, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.1111111111111111, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 3.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5714285714285714, "reference_TS_proxy": 0.5710659898477157 }, { "player_id": "4277923", "player": "Zhaire Smith", "reference_starter": false, "reference_minutes": 14.0, "conditional_minutes": 17.77777777777778, "conditional_FGA": 5.735849056603773, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.473684210526316, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.25, "reference_TS_proxy": 0.25 }, { "player_id": "4897155", "player": "Anthony Pritchard", "reference_starter": false, "reference_minutes": 10.0, "conditional_minutes": 12.698412698412698, "conditional_FGA": 4.30188679245283, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.736842105263158, "creation_assist_share": 0.05555555555555555, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.1666666666666667, "reference_TS_proxy": 1.1666666666666667 }, { "player_id": "5105800", "player": "Josh Dix", "reference_starter": false, "reference_minutes": 30.0, "conditional_minutes": 38.095238095238095, "conditional_FGA": 10.037735849056604, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_3PA": 8.68421052631579, "creation_assist_share": 0.1111111111111111, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.7857142857142857, "reference_TS_proxy": 0.7857142857142857 }, { "player_id": "5106270", "player": "Otega Oweh", "reference_starter": false, "reference_minutes": 28.0, "conditional_minutes": 35.55555555555556, "conditional_FGA": 12.90566037735849, "conditional_FTA": 5.6, "conditional_3PA": 3.473684210526316, "creation_assist_share": 0.05555555555555555, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3333333333333333, "reference_TS_proxy": 0.2788104089219331 } ], "conditional_team_minutes": 240.0, "reference_team_minutes": 241.0, "conditional_team_FGA": 76.0, "conditional_team_FTA": 21.0, "conditional_team_3PA": 33.0, "calculation": "Reference eligible minutes normalized to240; fixed reference team FGA/3PA/FTA redistributed proportional to surviving observed attempts. Creation tracked as share of observed assists, never added to scorer points. This does not calibrate PPP.", "excluded_players": [ "Ajay Mitchell", "Alex Caruso", "Cason Wallace", "Chet Holmgren", "Isaiah Hartenstein", "Jalen Williams", "Jared McCain", "Jaylin Williams", "Kenrich Williams", "Nikola Topic", "Shai Gilgeous-Alexander", "Thomas Sorber" ] } ], "return_limits": "Alternative observed rotations are scenarios, not announced participation. A player without any observed current-preseason role has no invented return-minute forecast." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": "401908620", "date": "2026-10-08T00:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "5174983", "player": "Aday Mara", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908620", "MIN": "25", "PTS": "22", "FG": "10-10", "OREB": "0", "3PT": "0-0", "TO": "0", "FT": "2-3", "AST": "2" }, { "event_id": "401908620", "date": "2026-10-08T00:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "2991350", "player": "Alex Caruso", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908620", "MIN": "17", "PTS": "12", "FG": "4-6", "OREB": "0", "3PT": "4-6", "TO": "0", "FT": "0-2", "AST": "2" }, { "event_id": "401908620", "date": "2026-10-08T00:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4278073", "player": "Shai Gilgeous-Alexander", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908620", "MIN": "18", "PTS": "17", "FG": "5-5", "OREB": "0", "3PT": "3-3", "TO": "0", "FT": "4-4", "AST": "5" }, { "event_id": "401908620", "date": "2026-10-08T00:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4593803", "player": "Jalen Williams", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908620", "MIN": "19", "PTS": "16", "FG": "8-11", "OREB": "0", "3PT": "0-3", "TO": "1", "FT": "0-0", "AST": "6" }, { "event_id": "401908620", "date": "2026-10-08T00:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4683692", "player": "Cason Wallace", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908620", "MIN": "18", "PTS": "7", "FG": "2-8", "OREB": "2", "3PT": "1-4", "TO": "0", "FT": "2-2", "AST": "6" }, { "event_id": "401908620", "date": "2026-10-08T00:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4684208", "player": "Brooks Barnhizer", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908620", "MIN": "19", "PTS": "6", "FG": "3-6", "OREB": "1", "3PT": "0-2", "TO": "2", "FT": "0-0", "AST": "1" }, { "event_id": "401908620", "date": "2026-10-08T00:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "5116468", "player": "Andrew Holifield", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908620", "MIN": "6", "PTS": "2", "FG": "0-0", "OREB": "0", "3PT": "0-0", "TO": "0", "FT": "2-2", "AST": "1" }, { "event_id": "401908620", "date": "2026-10-08T00:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "5109790", "player": "Christoph Tilly", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908620", "MIN": "8", "PTS": "0", "FG": "0-1", "OREB": "0", "3PT": "0-1", "TO": "1", "FT": "0-2", "AST": "0" }, { "event_id": "401908620", "date": "2026-10-08T00:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "3133626", "player": "Kenrich Williams", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908620", "MIN": "14", "PTS": "3", "FG": "1-9", "OREB": "2", "3PT": "1-6", "TO": "1", "FT": "0-0", "AST": "0" }, { "event_id": "401908620", "date": "2026-10-08T00:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4683778", "player": "Jared McCain", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908620", "MIN": "17", "PTS": "11", "FG": "4-11", "OREB": "0", "3PT": "3-6", "TO": "1", "FT": "0-0", "AST": "2" }, { "event_id": "401908620", "date": "2026-10-08T00:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4897155", "player": "Anthony Pritchard", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908620", "MIN": "10", "PTS": "2", "FG": "0-2", "OREB": "1", "3PT": "0-0", "TO": "1", "FT": "2-4", "AST": "2" }, { "event_id": "401908620", "date": "2026-10-08T00:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4900671", "player": "Ajay Mitchell", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908620", "MIN": "17", "PTS": "3", "FG": "1-5", "OREB": "0", "3PT": "0-3", "TO": "4", "FT": "1-1", "AST": "5" }, { "event_id": "401908620", "date": "2026-10-08T00:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "5105800", "player": "Josh Dix", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908620", "MIN": "14", "PTS": "3", "FG": "1-5", "OREB": "0", "3PT": "1-5", "TO": "1", "FT": "0-0", "AST": "0" }, { "event_id": "401908620", "date": "2026-10-08T00:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "5106270", "player": "Otega Oweh", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908620", "MIN": "16", "PTS": "2", "FG": "1-3", "OREB": "0", "3PT": "0-0", "TO": "1", "FT": "0-0", "AST": "0" }, { "event_id": "401908620", "date": "2026-10-08T00:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "5241364", "player": "Bennett Stirtz", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908620", "MIN": "22", "PTS": "20", "FG": "6-11", "OREB": "2", "3PT": "4-7", "TO": "1", "FT": "4-6", "AST": "2" }, { "event_id": "401908620", "date": "2026-10-08T00:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4277923", "player": "Zhaire Smith", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908620" }, { "event_id": "401908620", "date": "2026-10-08T00:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4685802", "player": "Robert McCray V", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908620" } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Rendered September and October official Trade/All Teams filters reviewed; September precautionary trades retained, October no records.", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "points", "adjustment_units": "points", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "version": "event-review-2026-10-12-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-12T05:39:57.160121+00:00", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401898402", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 116.03658536585365, 114.67073170731707 ], "Primary": [ 117.78008340782701, 112.97153732564136 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 117.536585, 113.17073500000001 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 117.536585, 113.17073500000001 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 116.03658536585365, 114.67073170731707 ], "Primary": [ 117.78008340782701, 112.97153732564136 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 117.536585, 113.17073500000001 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 117.536585, 113.17073500000001 ] }, "adjusted_score_status": "Unestimated; original scores retained as base, not silently labeled adjusted.", "baseline_exposure": "Registered aggregates do not identify each player reference weight. All player workload variants are sensitivities, not calibrated corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED_ALLOWED: no validated role-controlled run/PPP/goal coefficient", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "football_minus3": 0, "uncertainty": "Projected role is not confirmed lineup. Preserve unknown numerical effect, teammate/opponent confounding and reference exposure.", "collector_source": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\Offensive-Replacement-Tracking\\capture-20261012T053148Z", "price_inputs_used": false, "sources": [ "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612760/thunder", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908620", "https://www.nba.com/players/transactions" ], "current_roster_availability": [ { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4684208", "player": "Brooks Barnhizer", "position": "F", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "2991350", "player": "Alex Caruso", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-10T19:35Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "5105800", "player": "Josh Dix", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4278073", "player": "Shai Gilgeous-Alexander", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-10T19:17Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4222252", "player": "Isaiah Hartenstein", "position": "C", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-10T19:28Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "5116468", "player": "Andrew Holifield", "position": "F", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4433255", "player": "Chet Holmgren", "position": "C", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-10T19:43Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "5174983", "player": "Aday Mara", "position": "C", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City 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"reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4277923", "player": "Zhaire Smith", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "5061603", "player": "Thomas Sorber", "position": "C", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-10T19:47Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "5241364", "player": "Bennett Stirtz", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": 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"https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898389", "MIN": "30", "PTS": "11", "FG": "4-7", "OREB": "0", "3PT": "3-5", "TO": "2", "FT": "0-0", "AST": "2" }, { "event_id": "401898389", "date": "2026-10-07T00:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "5106270", "player": "Otega Oweh", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898389", "MIN": "28", "PTS": "6", "FG": "3-9", "OREB": "1", "3PT": "0-2", "TO": "2", "FT": "0-4", "AST": "1" }, { "event_id": "401898389", "date": "2026-10-07T00:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4685802", "player": "Robert McCray V", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898389" } ], "reference_date": "2026-10-08T00:00Z", 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First back-to-back game cannot be modeled as a normal starter rotation.", "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_240_MINUTES_SHOTS_CREATION_RECONCILED", "two_season_coverage": [ { "player_id": "4684208", "player": "Brooks Barnhizer", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "NO_RETURNED_NBA_SEASON_NOT_ZERO" }, { "player_id": "4684208", "player": "Brooks Barnhizer", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "2991350", "player": "Alex Caruso", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "2991350", "player": "Alex Caruso", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "5105800", "player": "Josh Dix", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "NO_RETURNED_NBA_SEASON_NOT_ZERO" }, { "player_id": "5105800", "player": "Josh Dix", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "NO_RETURNED_NBA_SEASON_NOT_ZERO" }, { "player_id": "4278073", "player": "Shai Gilgeous-Alexander", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4278073", "player": "Shai Gilgeous-Alexander", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4222252", "player": "Isaiah Hartenstein", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4222252", "player": "Isaiah Hartenstein", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "5116468", "player": "Andrew Holifield", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "NO_RETURNED_NBA_SEASON_NOT_ZERO" }, { "player_id": "5116468", "player": "Andrew Holifield", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "NO_RETURNED_NBA_SEASON_NOT_ZERO" }, { "player_id": "4433255", "player": "Chet Holmgren", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4433255", "player": "Chet Holmgren", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "5174983", "player": "Aday Mara", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "NO_RETURNED_NBA_SEASON_NOT_ZERO" }, { "player_id": "5174983", "player": "Aday Mara", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "NO_RETURNED_NBA_SEASON_NOT_ZERO" }, { "player_id": "4683778", "player": "Jared McCain", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4683778", "player": "Jared McCain", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4900671", "player": "Ajay Mitchell", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4900671", "player": "Ajay Mitchell", "team": "Oklahoma City 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"NO_RETURNED_NBA_SEASON_NOT_ZERO" }, { "player_id": "5061603", "player": "Thomas Sorber", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "NO_RETURNED_NBA_SEASON_NOT_ZERO" }, { "player_id": "5061603", "player": "Thomas Sorber", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "NO_RETURNED_NBA_SEASON_NOT_ZERO" }, { "player_id": "5241364", "player": "Bennett Stirtz", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "NO_RETURNED_NBA_SEASON_NOT_ZERO" }, { "player_id": "5241364", "player": "Bennett Stirtz", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "NO_RETURNED_NBA_SEASON_NOT_ZERO" }, { "player_id": "5109790", "player": "Christoph Tilly", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "NO_RETURNED_NBA_SEASON_NOT_ZERO" }, { "player_id": "5109790", "player": "Christoph Tilly", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "NO_RETURNED_NBA_SEASON_NOT_ZERO" }, { "player_id": "5159925", "player": "Nikola Topic", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "NO_RETURNED_NBA_SEASON_NOT_ZERO" }, { "player_id": "5159925", "player": "Nikola Topic", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4683692", "player": "Cason Wallace", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4683692", "player": "Cason Wallace", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4593803", "player": "Jalen Williams", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4593803", "player": "Jalen Williams", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4432823", "player": "Jaylin Williams", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4432823", 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"spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -7.5, "average_total": 222.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -1.3658536585365795, "combined": 230.7073170731707, "spread_buffer": -8.86585365853658, "total_difference": 8.207317073170714 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -1.3658536585365795, "combined": 230.7073170731707, "spread_buffer": -8.86585365853658, "total_difference": 8.207317073170714 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { 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true, "address": { "city": "Washington", "state": "DC" } }, "away": "17", "away_name": "Brooklyn Nets", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "27", "home_name": "Washington Wizards", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 113.90243902439025, 115.90853658536585 ], "adjusted_score": [ 113.90243902439025, 115.90853658536585 ], "conditional_score": [ 113.90243902439025, 115.90853658536585 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0.0, "prior_rates": [ 105.92682926829268, 115.91463414634147 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0.0, "prior_rates": [ 112.90243902439025, 124.8780487804878 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.69817073170732, "mean_margin_error": 6.306910569105692, "mean_total_error": 21.274390243902435, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 95.40244, 135.40244 ], "home": [ 94.408535, 134.408535 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 115.40244, 114.408535 ], "adjusted_score": [ 115.40244, 114.408535 ], "conditional_score": [ 115.40244, 114.408535 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 105.92683, "pa": 115.914635 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 112.902435, "pa": 124.87805 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Previous complete NBA regular season used for preseason; WNBA complete regular season if any game." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 11.200203666666669, "mean_margin_error": 7.310977333333336, "mean_total_error": 21.274390666666665, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 95.40244, 135.40244 ], "home": [ 94.408535, 134.408535 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 115.40244, 114.408535 ], "adjusted_score": [ 115.40244, 114.408535 ], "conditional_score": [ 115.40244, 114.408535 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 105.92683, "pa": 115.914635 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 112.902435, "pa": 124.87805 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Previous complete NBA regular season used for preseason; WNBA complete regular season if any game." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 11.200203666666669, "mean_margin_error": 7.310977333333336, "mean_total_error": 21.274390666666665, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 95.40244, 135.40244 ], "home": [ 94.408535, 134.408535 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Washington Wizards: Latest actual starting unit Davis/Dybantsa/George/Sarr/Young; Mann/Middleton/Vukcevic/Watkins did not play. Current roster injury timestamps are retained, separate from box COACH decision labels. Beekman/Carrington and Riley/Johnson carry observed reserve creation and shots. Unannounced returns remain conditional. Brooklyn Nets: League-hosted Oct9 report explicitly identifies Clowney starting for Porter wrist absence and Wagner/Wolf covering center roles around Sharpe. Current health flags for Brown/Jefferson/Porter/Sharpe are dated. Replay retains observed redistribution; return sensitivities use previous actual current-preseason roles where available.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NBA preseason rotations are conditional reference allocations, not confirmed minutes.", "reviewer": "Parent reconciliation of independent evidence" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independent arithmetic reviewed current nonfootball outputs; London remains outside comparable NBA history. Classic/Primary provisional; ON/OFF identical registered means. Opportunity scenarios do not supply a validated scoring conversion.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Capital One Arena; listed 2026-10-12T23:00Z. Official NBA home-team schedule confirms Oct12 opponent, venue, tip time and preseason stage. 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"https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401906510" }, { "event_id": "401906510", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Washington Wizards", "player_id": "4606840", "player": "Jamir Watkins", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401906510" } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Rendered September and October official Trade/All Teams filters reviewed; September precautionary trades retained, October no records.", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "points", "adjustment_units": "points", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement 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"PTS": "4", "FG": "1-4", "OREB": "0", "3PT": "0-3", "TO": "0", "FT": "2-2", "AST": "1" }, { "event_id": "401901823", "date": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Brooklyn Nets", "player_id": "5242502", "player": "Ben Saraf", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401901823", "MIN": "12", "PTS": "5", "FG": "1-4", "OREB": "1", "3PT": "1-1", "TO": "2", "FT": "2-6", "AST": "3" }, { "event_id": "401901823", "date": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Brooklyn Nets", "player_id": "5279130", "player": "Nolan Traore", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401901823", "MIN": "16", "PTS": "12", "FG": "4-8", "OREB": "0", "3PT": "2-3", "TO": "2", "FT": "2-2", "AST": "2" }, { "event_id": "401901823", "date": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": 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"player_id": "4702177", "player": "Keon Ellis", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401901820", "MIN": "12", "PTS": "5", "FG": "2-3", "OREB": "0", "3PT": "1-2", "TO": "1", "FT": "0-0", "AST": "0" }, { "event_id": "401901820", "date": "2026-10-06T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Brooklyn Nets", "player_id": "5175643", "player": "Egor Demin", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401901820", "MIN": "18", "PTS": "6", "FG": "2-5", "OREB": "0", "3PT": "2-3", "TO": "2", "FT": "0-0", "AST": "5" }, { "event_id": "401901820", "date": "2026-10-06T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Brooklyn Nets", "player_id": "4432189", "player": "Dain Dainja", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": 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"AST": "1" }, { "event_id": "401901820", "date": "2026-10-06T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Brooklyn Nets", "player_id": "4712896", "player": "Noah Clowney", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401901820", "MIN": "19", "PTS": "7", "FG": "2-6", "OREB": "0", "3PT": "1-3", "TO": "1", "FT": "2-2", "AST": "1" }, { "event_id": "401901820", "date": "2026-10-06T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Brooklyn Nets", "player_id": "5105626", "player": "Tyler Bilodeau", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401901820", "MIN": "8", "PTS": "5", "FG": "1-1", "OREB": "0", "3PT": "1-1", "TO": "0", "FT": "2-3", "AST": "0" }, { "event_id": "401901820", "date": "2026-10-06T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Brooklyn Nets", "player_id": "5107173", "player": "Danny Wolf", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401901820", "MIN": "15", "PTS": "9", "FG": "3-4", "OREB": "0", "3PT": "1-1", "TO": "1", "FT": "2-4", "AST": "5" }, { "event_id": "401901820", "date": "2026-10-06T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Brooklyn Nets", "player_id": "5174655", "player": "Chaney Johnson", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401901820", "MIN": "17", "PTS": "6", "FG": "3-3", "OREB": "2", "3PT": "0-0", "TO": "0", "FT": "0-0", "AST": "0" }, { "event_id": "401901820", "date": "2026-10-06T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Brooklyn Nets", "player_id": "3150844", "player": "Moritz Wagner", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401901820", "MIN": "18", "PTS": "5", "FG": "1-4", "OREB": "0", "3PT": "1-3", "TO": "2", "FT": "2-2", "AST": "5" }, { "event_id": "401901820", "date": "2026-10-06T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Brooklyn Nets", "player_id": "3907823", "player": "Terance Mann", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401901820", "MIN": "20", "PTS": "6", "FG": "2-4", "OREB": "0", "3PT": "2-3", "TO": "1", "FT": "0-0", "AST": "1" }, { "event_id": "401901820", "date": "2026-10-06T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Brooklyn Nets", "player_id": "5037873", "player": "Drake Powell", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401901820", "MIN": "13", "PTS": "9", "FG": "4-6", "OREB": "0", "3PT": "1-1", "TO": "0", "FT": "0-0", "AST": "1" }, { "event_id": "401901820", "date": "2026-10-06T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Brooklyn Nets", "player_id": "5242502", "player": "Ben Saraf", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401901820", "MIN": "15", "PTS": "8", "FG": "3-7", "OREB": "0", "3PT": "2-4", "TO": "1", "FT": "0-0", "AST": "2" }, { "event_id": "401901820", "date": "2026-10-06T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Brooklyn Nets", "player_id": "5279130", "player": "Nolan Traore", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401901820", "MIN": "10", "PTS": "10", "FG": "3-4", "OREB": "0", "3PT": "0-0", "TO": "1", "FT": "4-4", "AST": "2" }, { "event_id": "401901820", "date": "2026-10-06T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Brooklyn Nets", "player_id": "5177736", "player": "Ben Humrichous", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401901820", "MIN": "4", "PTS": "0", "FG": "0-1", "OREB": "0", "3PT": "0-1", "TO": "0", "FT": "0-0", "AST": "0" } ], "reference_date": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "comparison_player_ids": [ "3064514", "3150844", "3907823", "4278104", "4432189", "4432194", "4687718", "4702177", "4702670", "4712896", "4870564", "5037873", "5101761", "5105626", "5107173", "5174655", "5175643", "5177736", "5242502", "5279130" ], "findings": "League-hosted Oct9 report explicitly identifies Clowney starting for Porter wrist absence and Wagner/Wolf covering center roles around Sharpe. Current health flags for Brown/Jefferson/Porter/Sharpe are dated. Replay retains observed redistribution; return sensitivities use previous actual current-preseason roles where available.", "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_240_MINUTES_SHOTS_CREATION_RECONCILED", "two_season_coverage": [ { "player_id": "5105626", "player": "Tyler Bilodeau", "team": "Brooklyn Nets", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "NO_RETURNED_NBA_SEASON_NOT_ZERO" }, { "player_id": "5105626", "player": "Tyler Bilodeau", "team": "Brooklyn Nets", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "NO_RETURNED_NBA_SEASON_NOT_ZERO" }, { "player_id": "5101761", "player": "Mikel Brown Jr.", "team": "Brooklyn Nets", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "NO_RETURNED_NBA_SEASON_NOT_ZERO" }, { "player_id": "5101761", "player": "Mikel Brown Jr.", "team": "Brooklyn Nets", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "NO_RETURNED_NBA_SEASON_NOT_ZERO" }, { "player_id": "4712896", "player": "Noah Clowney", "team": "Brooklyn Nets", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4712896", "player": "Noah 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2025, "status": "NO_RETURNED_NBA_SEASON_NOT_ZERO" }, { "player_id": "4870564", "player": "Joshua Jefferson", "team": "Brooklyn Nets", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "NO_RETURNED_NBA_SEASON_NOT_ZERO" }, { "player_id": "5174655", "player": "Chaney Johnson", "team": "Brooklyn Nets", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "NO_RETURNED_NBA_SEASON_NOT_ZERO" }, { "player_id": "5174655", "player": "Chaney Johnson", "team": "Brooklyn Nets", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "3907823", "player": "Terance Mann", "team": "Brooklyn Nets", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "3907823", "player": "Terance Mann", "team": "Brooklyn Nets", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4687718", "player": "Josh Minott", "team": "Brooklyn Nets", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4687718", "player": "Josh Minott", "team": "Brooklyn Nets", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4702670", "player": "Grant Nelson", "team": "Brooklyn Nets", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "NO_RETURNED_NBA_SEASON_NOT_ZERO" }, { "player_id": "4702670", "player": "Grant Nelson", "team": "Brooklyn Nets", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4278104", "player": "Michael Porter Jr.", "team": "Brooklyn Nets", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4278104", "player": "Michael Porter Jr.", "team": "Brooklyn Nets", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "5037873", "player": "Drake Powell", "team": "Brooklyn Nets", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "NO_RETURNED_NBA_SEASON_NOT_ZERO" }, { "player_id": "5037873", "player": "Drake Powell", "team": "Brooklyn Nets", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "3064514", "player": "Julius Randle", "team": "Brooklyn Nets", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "3064514", "player": "Julius Randle", "team": "Brooklyn Nets", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "5242502", "player": "Ben Saraf", "team": "Brooklyn Nets", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "NO_RETURNED_NBA_SEASON_NOT_ZERO" }, { "player_id": "5242502", "player": "Ben Saraf", "team": "Brooklyn Nets", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4432194", "player": "Day'Ron Sharpe", "team": "Brooklyn Nets", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "4432194", "player": "Day'Ron Sharpe", "team": "Brooklyn Nets", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "5279130", "player": "Nolan Traore", "team": "Brooklyn Nets", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "NO_RETURNED_NBA_SEASON_NOT_ZERO" }, { "player_id": "5279130", "player": "Nolan Traore", "team": "Brooklyn Nets", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "3150844", "player": "Moritz Wagner", "team": "Brooklyn Nets", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "3150844", "player": "Moritz Wagner", "team": "Brooklyn Nets", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" }, { "player_id": "5107173", "player": "Danny Wolf", "team": "Brooklyn Nets", "season_end_year": 2025, "status": "NO_RETURNED_NBA_SEASON_NOT_ZERO" }, { "player_id": "5107173", "player": "Danny Wolf", "team": "Brooklyn Nets", "season_end_year": 2026, "status": "CAPTURED" } ] } ], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "Brooklyn Nets at Washington Wizards", "market": { "id": "401901824", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401901824", "requested_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.184562+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.505578+00:00", "home_line": -2.5, "away_line": 2.5, "home_line_price": -115.0, "away_line_price": -105.0, "total": 222.5, "under_line": 222.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -142.0, "away_ml": 120.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -2.5, "average_total": 222.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 2.006097560975604, "combined": 229.8109756097561, "spread_buffer": -0.4939024390243958, "total_difference": 7.310975609756099 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 2.006097560975604, "combined": 229.8109756097561, "spread_buffer": -0.4939024390243958, "total_difference": 7.310975609756099 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.2609069287018144, "combined": 225.64300370267293, "spread_buffer": -2.2390930712981856, "total_difference": 3.143003702672928 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.2609069287018144, "combined": 225.64300370267293, "spread_buffer": -2.2390930712981856, "total_difference": 3.143003702672928 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.993904999999998, "combined": 229.81097499999998, "spread_buffer": -3.493904999999998, "total_difference": 7.310974999999985 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.993904999999998, "combined": 229.81097499999998, "spread_buffer": -3.493904999999998, "total_difference": 7.310974999999985 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.993904999999998, "combined": 229.81097499999998, "spread_buffer": -3.493904999999998, "total_difference": 7.310974999999985 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.993904999999998, "combined": 229.81097499999998, "spread_buffer": -3.493904999999998, "total_difference": 7.310974999999985 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401914124", "sport": "NBA", "identity": { "id": "401914124", "date": "2026-10-12T23:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "1830", "fullName": "Madison Square Garden", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "New York", "state": "NY" } }, "away": "16", "away_name": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "18", "home_name": "New York Knicks", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 112.57831325301206, 117.09425506905671 ], "adjusted_score": [ 112.57831325301206, 117.09425506905671 ], "conditional_score": [ 112.57831325301206, 117.09425506905671 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0.0, "prior_rates": [ 118.0, 114.64634146341463 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 83, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0.0, "prior_rates": [ 116.5421686746988, 110.1566265060241 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.69817073170732, "mean_margin_error": 6.306910569105692, "mean_total_error": 21.274390243902435, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 94.060975, 134.06097499999998 ], "home": [ 95.54878, 135.54878 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 110.19570670462053, 115.46736333000325 ], "adjusted_score": [ 110.19570670462053, 115.46736333000325 ], "conditional_score": [ 110.19570670462053, 115.46736333000325 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2797, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-12T01:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "aa90b1c3f9cc2c33b6720a7fa6bc2faf0a752c2f4516b125280a4621fb7efbe4" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.176706670504595, "mean_margin_error": 7.034104665170351, "mean_total_error": 18.4100562470998, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 94.060975, 134.06097499999998 ], "home": [ 95.54878, 135.54878 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 114.060975, 115.54878 ], "adjusted_score": [ 114.060975, 115.54878 ], "conditional_score": [ 114.060975, 115.54878 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 118.0, "pa": 114.64634 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 116.45122, "pa": 110.12195 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Previous complete NBA regular season used for preseason; WNBA complete regular season if any game." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 11.200203666666669, "mean_margin_error": 7.310977333333336, "mean_total_error": 21.274390666666665, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 94.060975, 134.06097499999998 ], "home": [ 95.54878, 135.54878 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 114.060975, 115.54878 ], "adjusted_score": [ 114.060975, 115.54878 ], "conditional_score": [ 114.060975, 115.54878 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 118.0, "pa": 114.64634 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 116.45122, "pa": 110.12195 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Previous complete NBA regular season used for preseason; WNBA complete regular season if any game." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 11.200203666666669, "mean_margin_error": 7.310977333333336, "mean_total_error": 21.274390666666665, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 94.060975, 134.06097499999998 ], "home": [ 95.54878, 135.54878 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "New York Knicks: Latest first unit Anunoby/Towns/Hart/Bridges/Brunson remains observed reference; reserve guard minutes belong to McBride/Kolek/Alvarado/Shamet/Clarkson/Brown. Agbaji/Bradley/Eubanks/McCullar zero-minute DNPs stay distinct from confirmed October12 absences. No established fresh starter loss. Minnesota Timberwolves: League-hosted Oct11 report confirms previous game rested starting five and Dosunmu; those DTD labels do not establish injuries. Last observed bench-first rotation is one scenario. Earlier current-preseason full-team rotations are alternative return scenarios. DiVincenzo remains separately listed Out; no automatic deduction or healthy-baseline assumption.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NBA preseason rotations are conditional reference allocations, not confirmed minutes.", "reviewer": "Parent reconciliation of independent evidence" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independent arithmetic reviewed current nonfootball outputs; London remains outside comparable NBA history. Classic/Primary provisional; ON/OFF identical registered means. Opportunity scenarios do not supply a validated scoring conversion.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Madison Square Garden; listed 2026-10-12T23:30Z. Official NBA home-team schedule confirms Oct12 opponent, venue, tip time and preseason stage. Rotation volatility; NBA remains tracking-only.", "details": { "event_id": "401914124", "sport": "NBA", "away": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "home": "New York Knicks", "start_et": "2026-10-12T19:30:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-12T23:30Z", "venue": { "id": "1830", "fullName": "Madison Square Garden", "address": { "city": "New York", "state": "NY" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 1, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0.0", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Mon, October 12th at 7:30 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/12 - 7:30 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/scoreboard?dates=20261012&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T05:33:49.648158+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612752/schedule" ], "context": [ "Official NBA home-team schedule confirms Oct12 opponent, venue, tip time and preseason stage. Rotation volatility; NBA remains tracking-only." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "previous_game": { "id": "401898397", "date": "2026-10-11T00:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "3438", "fullName": "Kaseya Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Miami", "state": "FL" } }, "away": "16", "away_name": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "away_score": 125.0, "home": "14", "home_name": "Miami Heat", "home_score": 124.0, "day": 20737.0 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar gap from last retained completed game, not verified flight/rest hours. No automatic rest/travel score adjustment.", "limitation": null }, { "side": "home", "team": "New York Knicks", "previous_game": { "id": "401906508", "date": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "1830", "fullName": "Madison Square Garden", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "New York", "state": "NY" } }, "away": "27", "away_name": "Washington Wizards", "away_score": 111.0, "home": "18", "home_name": "New York Knicks", "home_score": 109.0, "day": 20734.979166666668 }, "days_between_start_dates": 4, "interpretation": "Calendar gap from last retained completed game, not verified flight/rest hours. 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"https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914123" }, { "event_id": "401914123", "date": "2026-10-07T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "player_id": "4431828", "player": "KJ Martin", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914123" }, { "event_id": "401914123", "date": "2026-10-07T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "player_id": "5157587", "player": "Rocco Zikarsky", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914123" }, { "event_id": "401914123", "date": "2026-10-07T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "player_id": "4592686", "player": "Antonio Reeves", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": 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"total_difference": -1.8369299653762141 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 1.4878049999999945, "combined": 229.609755, "spread_buffer": -1.0121950000000055, "total_difference": 2.109755000000007 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 1.4878049999999945, "combined": 229.609755, "spread_buffer": -1.0121950000000055, "total_difference": 2.109755000000007 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 1.4878049999999945, "combined": 229.609755, "spread_buffer": -1.0121950000000055, "total_difference": 2.109755000000007 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 1.4878049999999945, "combined": 229.609755, "spread_buffer": -1.0121950000000055, "total_difference": 2.109755000000007 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, -1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, -1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401892487", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892487", "date": "2026-10-13T00:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1835", "fullName": "Grand Casino Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Saint Paul", "state": "MN", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "37", "away_name": "Vegas Golden Knights", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "30", "home_name": "Minnesota Wild", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.9360037523452154, 3.1686679174484054 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.9360037523452154, 3.1686679174484054 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.9360037523452154, 3.1686679174484054 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.23076923076923078, "prior_rates": [ 3.231707317073171, 3.048780487804878 ], "current_rates": [ 3.8333333333333335, 2.3333333333333335 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.2, "prior_rates": [ 3.317073170731707, 2.926829268292683 ], "current_rates": [ 3.0, 1.8 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "wilson95": [ 0.2076596008020477, 0.9385080552796037 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3478452678757558, "mean_margin_error": 2.6956905357515115, "mean_total_error": 1.5761283093600158, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.0426799999999998, 5.04268 ], "home": [ 1.10975, 5.10975 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.052716984961, 3.165765768089014 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.052716984961, 3.165765768089014 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.052716984961, 3.165765768089014 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2855, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-11T23:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3b0adb131271c75a77cc788f19735b2d2d53f6aceeae8ec00c0d22392f6a8570" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "wilson95": [ 0.2076596008020477, 0.9385080552796037 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3332969922245195, "mean_margin_error": 2.666593984449039, "mean_total_error": 1.516383961247979, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.0426799999999998, 5.04268 ], "home": [ 1.10975, 5.10975 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 3.04268, 3.10975 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.04268, 3.10975 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.04268, 3.10975 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.21951, "pa": 2.95121, "official_team_id": 54, "official_team_name": "Vegas Golden Knights" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.26829, "pa": 2.86585, "official_team_id": 30, "official_team_name": "Minnesota Wild" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "wilson95": [ 0.2076596008020477, 0.9385080552796037 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4105683333333332, "mean_margin_error": 2.8211366666666664, "mean_total_error": 1.6707366666666665, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.0426799999999998, 5.04268 ], "home": [ 1.10975, 5.10975 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 3.04268, 3.10975 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.04268, 3.10975 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.04268, 3.10975 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.21951, "pa": 2.95121, "official_team_id": 54, "official_team_name": "Vegas Golden Knights" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.26829, "pa": 2.86585, "official_team_id": 30, "official_team_name": "Minnesota Wild" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "wilson95": [ 0.2076596008020477, 0.9385080552796037 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4105683333333332, "mean_margin_error": 2.8211366666666664, "mean_total_error": 1.6707366666666665, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.0426799999999998, 5.04268 ], "home": [ 1.10975, 5.10975 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "VGK: Official Oct10 preview has Olofsson injured and Lavoie with Connelly/Hertl. Latest actual18 already reflect that absence. Monday same-active-skater branch retains observed workload; prior Olofsson return scenario is a sensitivity only, not current clearance. No new line or PP-unit labels inferred. MIN: Official Oct10 preview lists Marcus/Nick Foligno and Faber absent, Gustavsson separate goalie issue. Latest actual includes Lorenz and Spacek, superseding projected Bogosian. Same-active18 branch already includes replacements; Marcus Foligno return-for-Lorenz sensitivity and defensive depth branches retained without inventing current availability.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.", "reviewer": "Parent reconciliation of independent evidence" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independent arithmetic reviewed current nonfootball outputs; London remains outside comparable NBA history. Classic/Primary provisional; ON/OFF identical registered means. Opportunity scenarios do not supply a validated scoring conversion.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Grand Casino Arena; listed 2026-10-13T00:00Z. Official NHL gameType2 and date/venue/time matched; do not call current games preseason. NHL activation gate remains tracking-only.", "details": { "event_id": "401892487", "sport": "NHL", "away": "Vegas Golden Knights", "home": "Minnesota Wild", "start_et": "2026-10-12T20:00:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-13T00:00Z", "venue": { "id": "1835", "fullName": "Grand Casino Arena", "address": { "city": "Saint Paul", "state": "MN", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Mon, October 12th at 8:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/12 - 8:00 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261012&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T05:33:49.658909+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-11" ], "context": [ "Official NHL gameType2 and date/venue/time matched; do not call current games preseason. NHL activation gate remains tracking-only." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Vegas Golden Knights", "previous_game": { "id": "401892481", "date": "2026-10-11T02:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "5060", "fullName": "T-Mobile Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Las Vegas", "state": "NV", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "8", "away_name": "Los Angeles Kings", "away_score": 1.0, "home": "37", "home_name": "Vegas Golden Knights", "home_score": 2.0, "day": 20737.083333333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar gap from last retained completed game, not verified flight/rest hours. No automatic rest/travel score adjustment.", "limitation": null }, { "side": "home", "team": "Minnesota Wild", "previous_game": { "id": "401891805", "date": "2026-10-10T22:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1840", "fullName": "Amerant Bank Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Sunrise", "state": "FL", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "30", "away_name": "Minnesota Wild", "away_score": 4.0, "home": "26", "home_name": "Florida Panthers", "home_score": 1.0, "day": 20736.916666666668 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar gap from last retained completed game, not verified flight/rest hours. No automatic rest/travel score adjustment.", "limitation": null } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct weather adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "official_event_id": 2026020089, "stage_label": "Regular season / tracking only" }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor arena; no direct weather adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct weather adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. 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41 }, { "player_id": 8484803, "player": "Trevor Connelly", "EV_seconds": 674, "PP_seconds": 178, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478403, "player": "Jack Eichel", "EV_seconds": 1116, "PP_seconds": 182, "SH_seconds": 81 }, { "player_id": 8476881, "player": "Tomas Hertl", "EV_seconds": 762, "PP_seconds": 170, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479353, "player": "Brett Howden", "EV_seconds": 897, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 28 }, { "player_id": 8478397, "player": "Rasmus Andersson", "EV_seconds": 1083, "PP_seconds": 26, "SH_seconds": 29 }, { "player_id": 8483890, "player": "Braeden Bowman", "EV_seconds": 706, "PP_seconds": 51, "SH_seconds": 7 }, { "player_id": 8477447, "player": "Shea Theodore", "EV_seconds": 1274, "PP_seconds": 32, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478468, "player": "Jeremy Lauzon", "EV_seconds": 887, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 119 } ], "projected_changes": [], "conditional_return_branches": [ { "status": "ANALYST CONDITIONAL, not announced minutes/lines", "changes": [ { "from": "Raphael Lavoie", "from_id": 8481534, "to": "Victor Olofsson", "to_id": 8478109, "EV_seconds": 562, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "rotation": [ { "player_id": 8475188, "player": "Brayden McNabb", "EV_seconds": 1136, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 54 }, { "player_id": 8475913, "player": "Mark Stone", "EV_seconds": 943, "PP_seconds": 157, "SH_seconds": 31 }, { "player_id": 8477964, "player": "Ivan Barbashev", "EV_seconds": 1116, "PP_seconds": 32, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476448, "player": "William Karlsson", "EV_seconds": 890, "PP_seconds": 30, "SH_seconds": 80 }, { "player_id": 8475343, "player": "Nic Dowd", "EV_seconds": 564, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 62 }, { "player_id": 8478450, "player": "Parker Wotherspoon", "EV_seconds": 1013, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 132 }, { "player_id": 8478396, "player": "Noah Hanifin", "EV_seconds": 1135, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 78 }, { "player_id": 8478109, "player": "Victor Olofsson", "EV_seconds": 562, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483553, "player": "Marc Gatcomb", "EV_seconds": 645, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 8 }, { "player_id": 8478483, "player": "Mitch Marner", "EV_seconds": 999, "PP_seconds": 176, "SH_seconds": 41 }, { "player_id": 8484803, "player": "Trevor Connelly", "EV_seconds": 674, "PP_seconds": 178, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478403, "player": "Jack Eichel", "EV_seconds": 1116, "PP_seconds": 182, "SH_seconds": 81 }, { "player_id": 8476881, "player": "Tomas Hertl", "EV_seconds": 762, "PP_seconds": 170, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479353, "player": "Brett Howden", "EV_seconds": 897, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 28 }, { "player_id": 8478397, "player": "Rasmus Andersson", "EV_seconds": 1083, "PP_seconds": 26, "SH_seconds": 29 }, { "player_id": 8483890, "player": "Braeden Bowman", "EV_seconds": 706, "PP_seconds": 51, "SH_seconds": 7 }, { "player_id": 8477447, "player": "Shea Theodore", "EV_seconds": 1274, "PP_seconds": 32, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478468, "player": "Jeremy Lauzon", "EV_seconds": 887, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 119 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 16402, "PP_seconds": 1034, "SH_seconds": 750 }, "calculation": "Transfer same positional role seconds by strength, conserving total skater exposure; exact PP units and interactions unknown; goal rate unestimated." } ], "PP_units": "Unconfirmed; actual PP workload retained without inference from roster order", "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 16402, "PP_seconds": 1034, "SH_seconds": 750 }, "OT_note": "Reference may contain overtime; exact original exposures retained as empirical scenario. No guarantee same penalty/OT time; no season rate pooling with preseason.", "line_combinations": "Official Monday projected lines available FLA/BUF; other teams latest actual skaters as conditional replay, no invented pairings." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": 2026020083, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020083/boxscore", "playerId": 8478403, "name": { "default": "J. Eichel" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "22:59", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020083, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020083/boxscore", "playerId": 8483553, "name": { "default": "M. Gatcomb" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 5, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "10:53", "shifts": 14 }, { "event_id": 2026020083, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020083/boxscore", "playerId": 8479353, "name": { "default": "B. Howden" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:25", "shifts": 21 }, { "event_id": 2026020083, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020083/boxscore", "playerId": 8484803, "name": { "default": "T. Connelly" }, "position": "L", "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "points": 2, "sog": 6, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "toi": "14:12", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020083, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020083/boxscore", "playerId": 8475343, "name": { "default": "N. Dowd" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "10:26", "shifts": 16 }, { "event_id": 2026020083, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020083/boxscore", "playerId": 8481534, "name": { "default": "R. Lavoie" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "09:22", "shifts": 13 }, { "event_id": 2026020083, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020083/boxscore", "playerId": 8483890, "name": { "default": "B. Bowman" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "12:44", "shifts": 16 }, { "event_id": 2026020083, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020083/boxscore", "playerId": 8476881, "name": { "default": "T. Hertl" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:32", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020083, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020083/boxscore", "playerId": 8477964, "name": { "default": "I. Barbashev", "cs": "I. Barba\u0161ev", "fi": "I. Barbashov", "sk": "I. Barba\u0161ev" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:08", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020083, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020083/boxscore", "playerId": 8475913, "name": { "default": "M. Stone" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 2, "points": 2, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:51", "shifts": 23 }, { "event_id": 2026020083, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020083/boxscore", "playerId": 8476448, "name": { "default": "W. Karlsson" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:40", "shifts": 23 }, { "event_id": 2026020083, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020083/boxscore", "playerId": 8478483, "name": { "default": "M. Marner" }, "position": "R", "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "points": 2, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "toi": "20:16", "shifts": 24 }, { "event_id": 2026020083, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020083/boxscore", "playerId": 8475188, "name": { "default": "B. McNabb" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:50", "shifts": 25 }, { "event_id": 2026020083, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020083/boxscore", "playerId": 8478397, "name": { "default": "R. Andersson" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:58", "shifts": 25 }, { "event_id": 2026020083, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020083/boxscore", "playerId": 8478468, "name": { "default": "J. Lauzon" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:46", "shifts": 21 }, { "event_id": 2026020083, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020083/boxscore", "playerId": 8478396, "name": { "default": "N. Hanifin" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "20:13", "shifts": 23 }, { "event_id": 2026020083, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020083/boxscore", "playerId": 8477447, "name": { "default": "S. Theodore" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "21:46", "shifts": 27 }, { "event_id": 2026020083, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020083/boxscore", "playerId": 8478450, "name": { "default": "P. Wotherspoon" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:05", "shifts": 24 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Official since-July tracker checked; precautionary September-onward both-side ledger retained, offseason changes distinct.", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "version": "event-review-2026-10-12-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-12T05:39:57.160121+00:00", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892487", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 2.9360037523452154, 3.1686679174484054 ], "Primary": [ 3.052716984961, 3.165765768089014 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.04268, 3.10975 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.04268, 3.10975 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 2.9360037523452154, 3.1686679174484054 ], "Primary": [ 3.052716984961, 3.165765768089014 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.04268, 3.10975 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.04268, 3.10975 ] }, "adjusted_score_status": "Unestimated; original scores retained as base, not silently labeled adjusted.", "baseline_exposure": "Registered aggregates do not identify each player reference weight. All player workload variants are sensitivities, not calibrated corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED_ALLOWED: no validated role-controlled run/PPP/goal coefficient", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "football_minus3": 0, "uncertainty": "Projected role is not confirmed lineup. Preserve unknown numerical effect, teammate/opponent confounding and reference exposure.", "collector_source": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\Offensive-Replacement-Tracking\\capture-20261012T053148Z", "price_inputs_used": false, "sources": [ "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/timeonice?isAggregate=false&isGame=true&start=0&limit=100&cayenneExp=gameId%3D2026020083", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades", "https://www.nhl.com/news/los-angeles-kings-vegas-golden-knights-game-preview-october-10-2026" ], "findings": "Official Oct10 preview has Olofsson injured and Lavoie with Connelly/Hertl. Latest actual18 already reflect that absence. Monday same-active-skater branch retains observed workload; prior Olofsson return scenario is a sensitivity only, not current clearance. No new line or PP-unit labels inferred.", "reference_date": "2026-10-10", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8477964, "player": "Ivan Barbashev", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8483890, "player": "Braeden Bowman", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8484803, "player": "Trevor Connelly", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8475343, "player": "Nic Dowd", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8478403, "player": "Jack Eichel", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8483553, "player": "Marc Gatcomb", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8476881, "player": "Tomas Hertl", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8479353, "player": "Brett Howden", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8476448, "player": "William Karlsson", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8481534, "player": "Raphael Lavoie", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8478483, "player": "Mitch Marner", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8478109, "player": "Victor Olofsson", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8475913, "player": "Mark Stone", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8478397, "player": "Rasmus Andersson", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8479639, "player": "Dylan Coghlan", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8478396, "player": "Noah Hanifin", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8481572, "player": "Ville Heinola", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8478468, "player": "Jeremy Lauzon", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8475188, "player": "Brayden McNabb", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8477447, "player": "Shea Theodore", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8478450, "player": "Parker Wotherspoon", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8479394, "player": "Carter Hart", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8478499, "player": "Adin Hill", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" } ], "comparison_player_ids": [ 8475188, 8475343, 8475913, 8476448, 8476881, 8477447, 8477964, 8478109, 8478396, 8478397, 8478403, 8478450, 8478468, 8478483, 8478499, 8479353, 8479394, 8479639, 8481534, 8481572, 8483553, 8483890, 8484803 ], "two_season_comparison_rows": [ { "seasonId": 20242025, "shootingPct": 0.05154, "otGoals": 0, "points": 20, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1206.7682, "shGoals": 1, "evGoals": 4, "gamesPlayed": 82, "positionCode": "D", "goals": 5, "shots": 97, "shPoints": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 0, "playerId": 8475188, "ppGoals": 0, "evPoints": 18, "teamAbbrevs": "VGK", "assists": 15, "skaterFullName": "Brayden McNabb", "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "shootingPct": 0.16279, "otGoals": 0, "points": 27, "timeOnIcePerGame": 910.5609, "shGoals": 2, "evGoals": 12, 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}, { "player_id": 8478864, "player": "Kirill Kaprizov", "EV_seconds": 1029, "PP_seconds": 182, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8485702, "player": "Maxim Shabanov", "EV_seconds": 628, "PP_seconds": 179, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8474716, "player": "Jared Spurgeon", "EV_seconds": 1042, "PP_seconds": 80, "SH_seconds": 358 }, { "player_id": 8478493, "player": "Joel Eriksson Ek", "EV_seconds": 974, "PP_seconds": 108, "SH_seconds": 10 }, { "player_id": 8478508, "player": "Yakov Trenin", "EV_seconds": 569, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 187 }, { "player_id": 8480800, "player": "Quinn Hughes", "EV_seconds": 1345, "PP_seconds": 186, "SH_seconds": 4 }, { "player_id": 8481477, "player": "Nico Sturm", "EV_seconds": 463, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 308 }, { "player_id": 8483766, "player": "David Spacek", "EV_seconds": 548, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 43 }, { "player_id": 8483525, "player": "Danila Yurov", "EV_seconds": 593, "PP_seconds": 83, "SH_seconds": 232 } ], "projected_changes": [], "conditional_return_branches": [ { "status": "ANALYST CONDITIONAL, not announced minutes/lines", "changes": [ { "from": "Rieger Lorenz", "from_id": 8483478, "to": "Marcus Foligno", "to_id": 8475220, "EV_seconds": 432, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "rotation": [ { "player_id": 8476399, "player": "Blake Coleman", "EV_seconds": 780, "PP_seconds": 84, "SH_seconds": 132 }, { "player_id": 8481557, "player": "Matt Boldy", "EV_seconds": 1016, "PP_seconds": 183, "SH_seconds": 57 }, { "player_id": 8481553, "player": "Bobby Brink", "EV_seconds": 564, "PP_seconds": 87, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482094, "player": "Daemon Hunt", "EV_seconds": 523, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 185 }, { "player_id": 8476463, "player": "Jonas Brodin", "EV_seconds": 1010, "PP_seconds": 46, "SH_seconds": 340 }, { "player_id": 8476874, "player": "Olli Maatta", "EV_seconds": 1023, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 270 }, { "player_id": 8477446, "player": "Michael McCarron", "EV_seconds": 422, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 274 }, { "player_id": 8477451, "player": "Ryan Hartman", "EV_seconds": 711, "PP_seconds": 112, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475220, "player": "Marcus Foligno", "EV_seconds": 432, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478864, "player": "Kirill Kaprizov", "EV_seconds": 1029, "PP_seconds": 182, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8485702, "player": "Maxim Shabanov", "EV_seconds": 628, "PP_seconds": 179, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8474716, "player": "Jared Spurgeon", "EV_seconds": 1042, "PP_seconds": 80, "SH_seconds": 358 }, { "player_id": 8478493, "player": "Joel Eriksson Ek", "EV_seconds": 974, "PP_seconds": 108, "SH_seconds": 10 }, { "player_id": 8478508, "player": "Yakov Trenin", "EV_seconds": 569, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 187 }, { "player_id": 8480800, "player": "Quinn Hughes", "EV_seconds": 1345, "PP_seconds": 186, "SH_seconds": 4 }, { "player_id": 8481477, "player": "Nico Sturm", "EV_seconds": 463, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 308 }, { "player_id": 8483766, "player": "David Spacek", "EV_seconds": 548, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 43 }, { "player_id": 8483525, "player": "Danila Yurov", "EV_seconds": 593, "PP_seconds": 83, "SH_seconds": 232 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 13672, "PP_seconds": 1330, "SH_seconds": 2400 }, "calculation": "Transfer same positional role seconds by strength, conserving total skater exposure; exact PP units and interactions unknown; goal rate unestimated." }, { "status": "ANALYST CONDITIONAL, not announced minutes/lines", "changes": [ { "from": "David Spacek", "from_id": 8483766, "to": "Zach Bogosian", "to_id": 8474567, "EV_seconds": 548, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 43 } ], "rotation": [ { "player_id": 8476399, "player": "Blake Coleman", "EV_seconds": 780, "PP_seconds": 84, "SH_seconds": 132 }, { "player_id": 8481557, "player": "Matt Boldy", "EV_seconds": 1016, "PP_seconds": 183, "SH_seconds": 57 }, { "player_id": 8481553, "player": "Bobby Brink", "EV_seconds": 564, "PP_seconds": 87, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482094, "player": "Daemon Hunt", "EV_seconds": 523, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 185 }, { "player_id": 8476463, "player": "Jonas Brodin", "EV_seconds": 1010, "PP_seconds": 46, "SH_seconds": 340 }, { "player_id": 8476874, "player": "Olli Maatta", "EV_seconds": 1023, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 270 }, { "player_id": 8477446, "player": "Michael McCarron", "EV_seconds": 422, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 274 }, { "player_id": 8477451, "player": "Ryan Hartman", "EV_seconds": 711, "PP_seconds": 112, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483478, "player": "Rieger Lorenz", "EV_seconds": 432, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478864, "player": "Kirill Kaprizov", "EV_seconds": 1029, "PP_seconds": 182, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8485702, "player": "Maxim Shabanov", "EV_seconds": 628, "PP_seconds": 179, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8474716, "player": "Jared Spurgeon", "EV_seconds": 1042, "PP_seconds": 80, "SH_seconds": 358 }, { "player_id": 8478493, "player": "Joel Eriksson Ek", "EV_seconds": 974, "PP_seconds": 108, "SH_seconds": 10 }, { "player_id": 8478508, "player": "Yakov Trenin", "EV_seconds": 569, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 187 }, { "player_id": 8480800, "player": "Quinn Hughes", "EV_seconds": 1345, "PP_seconds": 186, "SH_seconds": 4 }, { "player_id": 8481477, "player": "Nico Sturm", "EV_seconds": 463, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 308 }, { "player_id": 8474567, "player": "Zach Bogosian", "EV_seconds": 548, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 43 }, { "player_id": 8483525, "player": "Danila Yurov", "EV_seconds": 593, "PP_seconds": 83, "SH_seconds": 232 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 13672, "PP_seconds": 1330, "SH_seconds": 2400 }, "calculation": "Transfer same positional role seconds by strength, conserving total skater exposure; exact PP units and interactions unknown; goal rate unestimated." } ], "PP_units": "Unconfirmed; actual PP workload retained without inference from roster order", "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 13672, "PP_seconds": 1330, "SH_seconds": 2400 }, "OT_note": "Reference may contain overtime; exact original exposures retained as empirical scenario. No guarantee same penalty/OT time; no season rate pooling with preseason.", "line_combinations": "Official Monday projected lines available FLA/BUF; other teams latest actual skaters as conditional replay, no invented pairings." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": 2026020073, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "MIN", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020073/boxscore", "playerId": 8481553, "name": { "default": "B. Brink" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "10:51", "shifts": 13 }, { "event_id": 2026020073, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "MIN", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020073/boxscore", "playerId": 8481557, "name": { "default": "M. Boldy" }, "position": "L", "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "points": 2, "sog": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "20:56", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020073, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "MIN", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020073/boxscore", "playerId": 8478508, "name": { "default": "Y. Trenin", "cs": "J. Trenin", "fi": "J. Trenin", "sk": "J. Trenin" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "12:36", "shifts": 17 }, { "event_id": 2026020073, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "MIN", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020073/boxscore", "playerId": 8478493, "name": { "default": "J. Eriksson Ek" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:12", "shifts": 18 }, { "event_id": 2026020073, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "MIN", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020073/boxscore", "playerId": 8476399, "name": { "default": "B. Coleman" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:36", "shifts": 18 }, { "event_id": 2026020073, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "MIN", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020073/boxscore", "playerId": 8483525, "name": { "default": "D. Yurov" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:08", "shifts": 18 }, { "event_id": 2026020073, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "MIN", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020073/boxscore", "playerId": 8477451, "name": { "default": "R. Hartman" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "13:43", "shifts": 13 }, { "event_id": 2026020073, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "MIN", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020073/boxscore", "playerId": 8477446, "name": { "default": "M. McCarron" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "11:36", "shifts": 17 }, { "event_id": 2026020073, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "MIN", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020073/boxscore", "playerId": 8485702, "name": { "default": "M. Shabanov" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "13:27", "shifts": 14 }, { "event_id": 2026020073, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "MIN", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020073/boxscore", "playerId": 8483478, "name": { "default": "R. Lorenz" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "07:12", "shifts": 10 }, { "event_id": 2026020073, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "MIN", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020073/boxscore", "playerId": 8481477, "name": { "default": "N. Sturm" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "12:51", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020073, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "MIN", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020073/boxscore", "playerId": 8478864, "name": { "default": "K. Kaprizov" }, "position": "L", "goals": 3, "assists": 1, "points": 4, "sog": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "toi": "20:11", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020073, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "MIN", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020073/boxscore", "playerId": 8476874, "name": { "default": "O. Maatta", "cs": "O. M\u00e4\u00e4tt\u00e4", "fi": "O. M\u00e4\u00e4tt\u00e4", "sk": "O. M\u00e4\u00e4tt\u00e4", "sv": "O. M\u00e4\u00e4tt\u00e4" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "21:33", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020073, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "MIN", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020073/boxscore", "playerId": 8476463, "name": { "default": "J. Brodin" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "23:16", "shifts": 23 }, { "event_id": 2026020073, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "MIN", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020073/boxscore", "playerId": 8480800, "name": { "default": "Q. Hughes" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "25:35", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020073, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "MIN", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020073/boxscore", "playerId": 8474716, "name": { "default": "J. Spurgeon" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "24:40", "shifts": 29 }, { "event_id": 2026020073, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "MIN", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020073/boxscore", "playerId": 8482094, "name": { "default": "D. Hunt" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "11:48", "shifts": 14 }, { "event_id": 2026020073, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "MIN", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020073/boxscore", "playerId": 8483766, "name": { "default": "D. Spacek" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "09:51", "shifts": 14 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Official since-July tracker checked; precautionary September-onward both-side ledger retained, offseason changes distinct.", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "version": "event-review-2026-10-12-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-12T05:39:57.160121+00:00", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892487", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 2.9360037523452154, 3.1686679174484054 ], "Primary": [ 3.052716984961, 3.165765768089014 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.04268, 3.10975 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.04268, 3.10975 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 2.9360037523452154, 3.1686679174484054 ], "Primary": [ 3.052716984961, 3.165765768089014 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.04268, 3.10975 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.04268, 3.10975 ] }, "adjusted_score_status": "Unestimated; original scores retained as base, not silently labeled adjusted.", "baseline_exposure": "Registered aggregates do not identify each player reference weight. All player workload variants are sensitivities, not calibrated corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED_ALLOWED: no validated role-controlled run/PPP/goal coefficient", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "football_minus3": 0, "uncertainty": "Projected role is not confirmed lineup. Preserve unknown numerical effect, teammate/opponent confounding and reference exposure.", "collector_source": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\Offensive-Replacement-Tracking\\capture-20261012T053148Z", "price_inputs_used": false, "sources": [ "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/timeonice?isAggregate=false&isGame=true&start=0&limit=100&cayenneExp=gameId%3D2026020073", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades", "https://www.nhl.com/news/minnesota-wild-florida-panthers-game-preview-october-10-2026" ], "findings": "Official Oct10 preview lists Marcus/Nick Foligno and Faber absent, Gustavsson separate goalie issue. Latest actual includes Lorenz and Spacek, superseding projected Bogosian. Same-active18 branch already includes replacements; Marcus Foligno return-for-Lorenz sensitivity and defensive depth branches retained without inventing current availability.", "reference_date": "2026-10-10", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8481557, "player": "Matt Boldy", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8481553, "player": "Bobby Brink", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8476399, "player": "Blake Coleman", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8478493, "player": "Joel Eriksson Ek", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8475220, "player": "Marcus Foligno", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8473422, "player": "Nick Foligno", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8477451, "player": "Ryan Hartman", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8478864, "player": "Kirill Kaprizov", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8483478, "player": "Rieger Lorenz", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8477446, "player": "Michael McCarron", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8485702, "player": "Maxim Shabanov", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8481477, "player": "Nico Sturm", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8478508, "player": "Yakov Trenin", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8483525, "player": "Danila Yurov", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8474567, "player": "Zach Bogosian", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8476463, "player": "Jonas Brodin", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8482122, "player": "Brock Faber", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", 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42, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 8.4, "shifts": 116, "shiftsPerGame": 23.2, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Quinn Hughes", "teamAbbrevs": "MIN", "timeOnIce": 8254, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1650.8, "timeOnIcePerShift": 71.15517 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 981, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 490.5, "gamesPlayed": 2, "lastName": "Sturm", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8481477, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 446, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 223.0, "shifts": 32, "shiftsPerGame": 16.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Nico Sturm", "teamAbbrevs": "MIN", "timeOnIce": 1427, "timeOnIcePerGame": 713.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.59375 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3135, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 627.0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Brink", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8481553, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 425, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 85.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 72, "shiftsPerGame": 14.4, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Bobby Brink", "teamAbbrevs": "MIN", "timeOnIce": 3560, "timeOnIcePerGame": 712.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.44444 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4735, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 947.0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Boldy", "otTimeOnIce": 120, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 120.0, "playerId": 8481557, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 1184, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 236.8, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 448, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 89.6, "shifts": 103, "shiftsPerGame": 20.6, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Matt Boldy", "teamAbbrevs": "MIN", "timeOnIce": 6367, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1273.4, "timeOnIcePerShift": 61.81553 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3173, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 634.6, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Hunt", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8482094, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 441, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 88.2, "shifts": 80, "shiftsPerGame": 16.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Daemon Hunt", "teamAbbrevs": "MIN", "timeOnIce": 3614, "timeOnIcePerGame": 722.8, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.175 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 432, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 432.0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "lastName": "Lorenz", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8483478, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 10, "shiftsPerGame": 10.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Rieger Lorenz", "teamAbbrevs": "MIN", "timeOnIce": 432, "timeOnIcePerGame": 432.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 43.2 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3343, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 668.6, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Yurov", "otTimeOnIce": 56, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 56.0, "playerId": 8483525, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 282, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 56.4, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 337, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 67.4, "shifts": 85, "shiftsPerGame": 17.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Danila Yurov", "teamAbbrevs": "MIN", "timeOnIce": 3962, "timeOnIcePerGame": 792.4, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.61176 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 945, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 472.5, "gamesPlayed": 2, "lastName": "Spacek", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8483766, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 149, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 74.5, "shifts": 28, "shiftsPerGame": 14.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "David Spacek", "teamAbbrevs": "MIN", "timeOnIce": 1094, "timeOnIcePerGame": 547.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 39.07142 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3613, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 722.6, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Shabanov", "otTimeOnIce": 58, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 58.0, "playerId": 8485702, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 1044, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 208.8, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 78, "shiftsPerGame": 15.6, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Maxim Shabanov", "teamAbbrevs": "MIN", "timeOnIce": 4657, "timeOnIcePerGame": 931.4, "timeOnIcePerShift": 59.70512 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_WORKLOAD_RECONCILED" } ], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "Vegas Golden Knights at Minnesota Wild", "market": { "id": "401892487", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892487", "requested_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.510906+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.727714+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": 210.0, "away_line_price": -258.0, "total": 5.5, "under_line": 5.5, "over_price": -130.0, "under_price": 110.0, "home_ml": -118.0, "away_ml": -102.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 5.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.23266416510319, "combined": 6.104671669793621, "spread_buffer": -1.26733583489681, "total_difference": 0.6046716697936212 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.23266416510319, "combined": 6.104671669793621, "spread_buffer": -1.26733583489681, "total_difference": 0.6046716697936212 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.11304878312801403, "combined": 6.218482753050014, "spread_buffer": -1.386951216871986, "total_difference": 0.7184827530500142 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.11304878312801403, "combined": 6.218482753050014, "spread_buffer": -1.386951216871986, "total_difference": 0.7184827530500142 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.06707000000000019, "combined": 6.15243, "spread_buffer": -1.4329299999999998, "total_difference": 0.6524299999999998 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.06707000000000019, "combined": 6.15243, "spread_buffer": -1.4329299999999998, "total_difference": 0.6524299999999998 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.06707000000000019, "combined": 6.15243, "spread_buffer": -1.4329299999999998, "total_difference": 0.6524299999999998 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.06707000000000019, "combined": 6.15243, "spread_buffer": -1.4329299999999998, "total_difference": 0.6524299999999998 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401908023", "sport": "MLB", "identity": { "id": "401908023", "date": "2026-10-13T00:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 3, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "MLB", "venue": { "id": "31", "fullName": "Tropicana Field", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "St. Petersburg", "state": "Florida" } }, "away": "5", "away_name": "Cleveland Guardians", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "30", "home_name": "Tampa Bay Rays", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.9978009259259255, 4.410956790123456 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.9978009259259255, 4.410956790123456 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.9978009259259255, 4.410956790123456 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 162, "current_games": 162, "current_weight": 0.84375, "prior_rates": [ 3.9691358024691357, 4.006172839506172 ], "current_rates": [ 4.185185185185185, 4.117283950617284 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 162, "current_games": 162, "current_weight": 0.84375, "prior_rates": [ 4.407407407407407, 4.216049382716049 ], "current_rates": [ 4.54320987654321, 4.012345679012346 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.20654931437723745, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 2.923080632716049, "mean_margin_error": 0.7516782407407412, "mean_total_error": 5.846161265432098, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.09876543209876587, 8.098765432098766 ], "home": [ 0.3302469135802468, 8.330246913580247 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.1237759923355632, 3.5547010587274968 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.1237759923355632, 3.5547010587274968 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.1237759923355632, 3.5547010587274968 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 4951, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-12T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "558d57811aef4fcdb3045c780700251af391054b492e0fa0acd4c1a541cb5524" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.20654931437723745, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 2.131554321838614, "mean_margin_error": 0.7740103616040193, "mean_total_error": 4.263108643677228, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.09876543209876587, 8.098765432098766 ], "home": [ 0.3302469135802468, 8.330246913580247 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.185185185185185, "pa": 4.117283950617284, "runs_for": 678, "runs_against": 667, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/114/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-12-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-114.json" }, "home": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.54320987654321, "pa": 4.012345679012346, "runs_for": 736, "runs_against": 650, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/139/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-12-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-139.json" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_scoring_rate": 1, "justification": "Complete 162-game regular season; no postseason result substituted." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.20654931437723745, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 2.8996913580246915, "mean_margin_error": 0.9598765432098766, "mean_total_error": 5.799382716049383, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.09876543209876587, 8.098765432098766 ], "home": [ 0.3302469135802468, 8.330246913580247 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.185185185185185, "pa": 4.117283950617284, "runs_for": 678, "runs_against": 667, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/114/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-12-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-114.json" }, "home": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.54320987654321, "pa": 4.012345679012346, "runs_for": 736, "runs_against": 650, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/139/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-12-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-139.json" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_scoring_rate": 1, "justification": "Complete 162-game regular season; no postseason result substituted." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.20654931437723745, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 2.8996913580246915, "mean_margin_error": 0.9598765432098766, "mean_total_error": 5.799382716049383, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.09876543209876587, 8.098765432098766 ], "home": [ 0.3302469135802468, 8.330246913580247 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "lineup", "risk": "Actual lineup, starter/bullpen availability and calibrated probability gates remain unresolved. PASS." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Cleveland Guardians: Official preview projects HalpinCF over Mart\u00ednez after ALDS performance; quantify eighth-slot PA with separate 2024/2025/2026 histories. No injury of note reported; performance selection differs from absence. Retain Martinez alternative. Tampa Bay Rays: Updated official preview with Griffin confirmed left-hander projects ViladeRF, MesaLF and Simpson bench. Compare this exact chain and Simpson return branch using affected PA. McClanahan season-ending absence belongs pitching, not hitter overlay.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. Current batting-slot opportunity and bench branches are retained in the official reference-box ledger; unannounced lineups remain conditional.", "reviewer": "Parent reconciliation of independent evidence" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independent arithmetic reviewed current nonfootball outputs; London remains outside comparable NBA history. Classic/Primary provisional; ON/OFF identical registered means. Opportunity scenarios do not supply a validated scoring conversion.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Tropicana Field; listed 2026-10-13T00:00Z. MLB championship series; season/postseason segmented. No doubleheader: N", "details": { "event_id": "401908023", "sport": "MLB", "away": "Cleveland Guardians", "home": "Tampa Bay Rays", "start_et": "2026-10-12T20:00:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-13T00:00Z", "venue": { "id": "31", "fullName": "Tropicana Field", "address": { "city": "St. Petersburg", "state": "Florida" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 3, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 1, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Scheduled", "shortDetail": "10/12 - 8:00 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/scoreboard?dates=20261012&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T05:33:49.599476+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/schedule?sportId=1&startDate=2026-10-11&endDate=2026-10-12" ], "context": [ "MLB championship series; season/postseason segmented. No doubleheader: N" ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Cleveland Guardians", "previous_game": { "id": "401907994", "date": "2026-10-11T00:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 3, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "MLB", "venue": { "id": "5", "fullName": "Progressive Field", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Cleveland", "state": "Ohio" } }, "away": "4", "away_name": "Chicago White Sox", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "5", "home_name": "Cleveland Guardians", "home_score": 2.0, "day": 20737.0 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar gap from last retained completed game, not verified flight/rest hours. No automatic rest/travel score adjustment.", "limitation": null }, { "side": "home", "team": "Tampa Bay Rays", "previous_game": { "id": "401907987", "date": "2026-10-08T00:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 3, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "MLB", "venue": { "id": "208", "fullName": "Yankee Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Bronx", "state": "New York" } }, "away": "30", "away_name": "Tampa Bay Rays", "away_score": 4.0, "home": "10", "home_name": "New York Yankees", "home_score": 3.0, "day": 20734.0 }, "days_between_start_dates": 5, "interpretation": "Calendar gap from last retained completed game, not verified flight/rest hours. No automatic rest/travel score adjustment.", "limitation": null } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Tropicana Field fixed roof: no direct exterior weather adjustment.", "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/venues/12?hydrate=fieldInfo", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "official_event_id": 849820, "stage_label": "AL Championship Series Game 1" }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Tropicana Field fixed roof: no direct exterior weather adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "assessment": "Tropicana Field fixed roof: no direct exterior weather adjustment.", "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/venues/12?hydrate=fieldInfo", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "lineup", "risk": "Actual lineup, starter/bullpen availability and calibrated probability gates remain unresolved. PASS." } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/scoreboard?dates=20261012&limit=1000", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/scoreboard?dates=20261012&limit=200", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/game/849831/boxscore", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/game/849838/boxscore", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/schedule?sportId=1&startDate=2026-10-11&endDate=2026-10-12", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2024&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2025&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2026&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/114/roster/active", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/114/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/139/roster/active", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/139/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/venues/12?hydrate=fieldInfo", "https://www.mlb.com/news/guardians-vs-rays-alcs-game-1-starting-lineups-and-pitching-matchup" ], "tu": { "id": "401908023", "sport": "MLB", "identity": { "id": "401908023", "date": "2026-10-13T00:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 3, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "MLB", "venue": { "id": "31", "fullName": "Tropicana Field", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "St. Petersburg", "state": "Florida" } }, "away": "5", "away_name": "Cleveland Guardians", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "30", "home_name": "Tampa Bay Rays", "home_score": 0.0 }, "engine_id": "tighten-up-mlb-v3-full-season", "formula": "Full 2026 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean; no pitcher, park or lineup coefficient", "away_score": 4.098765432098766, "home_score": 4.330246913580247, "unrounded_score": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "legacy_internal_rounded_score": [ 4.1, 4.33 ], "rounding_note": "Original arithmetic retained without premature storage rounding, as current four-model standard requires. Half-point display only.", "baseline": { "away": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.185185185185185, "pa": 4.117283950617284, "runs_for": 678, "runs_against": 667, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/114/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-12-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-114.json" }, "home": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.54320987654321, "pa": 4.012345679012346, "runs_for": 736, "runs_against": 650, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/139/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-12-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-139.json" } }, "terms": {}, "venue": { "away": 0, "home": 0 }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_rate": 1, "justification": "Complete 162-game regular season; no postseason result substituted." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.09876543209876587, 8.098765432098766 ], "home": [ 0.3302469135802468, 8.330246913580247 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/scoreboard?dates=20261012&limit=200", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/114/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/139/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R" ], "input_files": [ { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-12-Research\\scoring\\slate-MLB.json", "sha256": "3ee6f1a3c06fe7b4f0c4c513b5439784b8ebca4cc1d0e3e8bafa264cde169317" }, { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-12-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-114.json", "sha256": "92f18d6309a4f9ab8c6ffb03528a00edb39cf26d8e967687a5f8fa94eca27912" }, { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-12-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-139.json", "sha256": "5d0622697ebc205b8df57f5dadc816bb15224c7db4187f188c719c5a1cffac28" } ], "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Final decision-useful availability or its supported scoring impact unresolved; point model probabilities uncalibrated.", "resolved": false } ], "conservative_on": { "status": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "minimum_side_buffer": 1.5, "minimum_total_buffer": 1.5, "maximum_tiers": 2, "free_picks": false }, "conservative_off": { "status": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "minimum_side_buffer": 1, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "free_picks": true }, "probabilities": null, "probability_status": "No validated joint score distribution; probabilities withheld" }, "football_review": null, "football_supplement": null, "offensive_review": [ { "sport": "MLB", "event_id": 849820, "team": "Cleveland Guardians", "review_status": "CONDITIONAL_OPPORTUNITY_REVIEW_COMPLETE", "incumbent_id": null, "replacement_ids": null, "expected_opportunities": { "scenario": "Official projected starting nine; no-substitution branch", "ordered_starters": [ { "slot": 1, "player": "Steven Kwan", "player_id": 680757, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.6, "observed_range": [ 4, 6 ] }, { "slot": 2, "player": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "player_id": 608070, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.4, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 3, "player": "Chase DeLauter", "player_id": 800050, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.4, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 4, "player": "Jo Adell", "player_id": 666176, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.4, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 5, "player": "Nathaniel Lowe", "player_id": 663993, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.2, "observed_range": [ 3, 5 ] }, { "slot": 6, "player": "Travis Bazzana", "player_id": 683953, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.2, "observed_range": [ 3, 5 ] }, { "slot": 7, "player": "Patrick Bailey", "player_id": 672275, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.2, "observed_range": [ 3, 5 ] }, { "slot": 8, "player": "Petey Halpin", "player_id": 690984, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.8, "observed_range": [ 3, 5 ] }, { "slot": 9, "player": "Brayan Rocchio", "player_id": 677587, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.6, "observed_range": [ 3, 5 ] } ], "empirical_slot_PA_by_stage": { "D": { "n_games": 5, "slots": { "1": [ 4, 4, 6, 5, 4 ], "2": [ 4, 4, 5, 5, 4 ], "3": [ 4, 4, 5, 5, 4 ], "4": [ 4, 4, 5, 5, 4 ], "5": [ 4, 4, 5, 5, 3 ], "6": [ 4, 4, 5, 5, 3 ], "7": [ 4, 4, 5, 5, 3 ], "8": [ 3, 4, 5, 4, 3 ], "9": [ 3, 3, 5, 4, 3 ] } }, "R": { "n_games": 7, "slots": { "1": [ 4, 5, 4, 4, 6, 5, 4 ], "2": [ 4, 5, 4, 4, 6, 5, 4 ], "3": [ 4, 5, 4, 4, 6, 5, 4 ], "4": [ 4, 5, 4, 4, 6, 5, 4 ], "5": [ 3, 5, 4, 4, 6, 5, 4 ], "6": [ 3, 5, 4, 4, 5, 5, 4 ], "7": [ 3, 5, 3, 3, 5, 5, 4 ], "8": [ 3, 5, 3, 3, 5, 5, 4 ], "9": [ 3, 5, 3, 3, 5, 4, 4 ] } } }, "chosen_reference_stage": "D", "conditional_team_PA": 37.800000000000004, "opportunity_branches": [ { "incumbent_reference_id": 690984, "incumbent": "Petey Halpin", "replacement_id": 682657, "replacement": "Angel Mart\u00ednez", "slot": 8, "affected_PA": 3.8, "position_chain": "Same starting-role slot; other positions retained; normal platoon/health branch is conditional.", "bench_substitution": "A bench PA transfers one PA from same slot, never adds to team PA. No unsupported bench appearance probability assigned.", "status": "ANALYST SENSITIVITY, not confirmed lineup" } ], "opponent_starter_hand": "R", "opponent_starter": "Drew Rasmussen", "bullpen_hand_exposure": "Unknown; do not extend starting pitcher hand to all PA", "normalization": "wOBA league value and scale not verified; no OPS/HR/RBI subtraction or invented coefficient" }, "reference_lineup": [ { "slot": 1, "player": "Steven Kwan", "player_id": 680757, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.6, "observed_range": [ 4, 6 ] }, { "slot": 2, "player": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "player_id": 608070, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.4, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 3, "player": "Chase DeLauter", "player_id": 800050, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.4, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 4, "player": "Jo Adell", "player_id": 666176, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.4, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 5, "player": "Nathaniel Lowe", "player_id": 663993, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.2, "observed_range": [ 3, 5 ] }, { "slot": 6, "player": "Travis Bazzana", "player_id": 683953, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.2, "observed_range": [ 3, 5 ] }, { "slot": 7, "player": "Patrick Bailey", "player_id": 672275, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.2, "observed_range": [ 3, 5 ] }, { "slot": 8, "player": "Petey Halpin", "player_id": 690984, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.8, "observed_range": [ 3, 5 ] }, { "slot": 9, "player": "Brayan Rocchio", "player_id": 677587, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.6, "observed_range": [ 3, 5 ] } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Fresh official March25-October12 inventory; both sides of every covered-team person trade retained.", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "runs", "adjustment_units": "runs", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "version": "event-review-2026-10-12-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-12T05:39:57.160121+00:00", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401908023", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 3.9978009259259255, 4.410956790123456 ], "Primary": [ 3.1237759923355632, 3.5547010587274968 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 3.9978009259259255, 4.410956790123456 ], "Primary": [ 3.1237759923355632, 3.5547010587274968 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ] }, "adjusted_score_status": "Unestimated; original scores retained as base, not silently labeled adjusted.", "baseline_exposure": "Registered aggregates do not identify each player reference weight. All player workload variants are sensitivities, not calibrated corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED_ALLOWED: no validated role-controlled run/PPP/goal coefficient", "gate_outcome": "CONDITIONAL_REVIEW_COMPLETE_NUMERIC_EFFECT_UNESTIMATED", "football_minus3": 0, "uncertainty": "Projected role is not confirmed lineup. Preserve unknown numerical effect, teammate/opponent confounding and reference exposure.", "collector_source": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\Offensive-Replacement-Tracking\\capture-20261012T053148Z", "price_inputs_used": false, "sources": [ "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/114/roster/active", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/game/849831/boxscore", "https://www.mlb.com/news/guardians-vs-rays-alcs-game-1-starting-lineups-and-pitching-matchup" ], "reference_date": "2026-10-12 official projected preview", "comparison_player_ids": [ 542888, 595978, 608070, 656492, 663993, 666176, 668909, 670036, 671922, 672275, 676282, 676440, 677587, 680757, 681807, 681870, 682120, 682177, 682657, 682982, 683769, 683953, 690984, 694197, 800048, 800050 ], "two_season_comparison_rows": [ { "season": 2024, "stage": "regular", "player_id": 680757, "player": "Steven Kwan", "team_id": 114, "team": "Cleveland Guardians", "num_teams": 1, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2024&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "plateAppearances": 540, "hits": 140, "doubles": 16, "strikeOuts": 51, "gamesPlayed": 122, "sacFlies": 0, "stolenBases": 12, "slg": ".425", "totalBases": 204, "triples": 3, "atBats": 480, "baseOnBalls": 53, "ops": ".793", "hitByPitch": 5, "runs": 83, "sacBunts": 2, "homeRuns": 14, "avg": ".292", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 5, "caughtStealing": 5, "babip": ".304", "obp": ".368", "intentionalWalks": 0, "rbi": 44, "singles": 107 }, { "season": 2024, "stage": "regular", "player_id": 608070, "player": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "team_id": 114, "team": "Cleveland Guardians", "num_teams": 1, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2024&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "plateAppearances": 682, "hits": 173, "doubles": 39, "strikeOuts": 82, "gamesPlayed": 158, "sacFlies": 6, "stolenBases": 41, "slg": ".537", "totalBases": 333, "triples": 2, "atBats": 620, "baseOnBalls": 54, "ops": ".872", "hitByPitch": 1, "runs": 114, "sacBunts": 0, "homeRuns": 39, "avg": ".279", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 9, "caughtStealing": 7, "babip": ".265", "obp": ".335", "intentionalWalks": 12, "rbi": 118, "singles": 93 }, { "season": 2024, "stage": "regular", "player_id": 663993, "player": "Nathaniel Lowe", "team_id": 140, "team": "Texas Rangers", "num_teams": 1, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2024&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "plateAppearances": 565, "hits": 129, "doubles": 16, "strikeOuts": 125, "gamesPlayed": 140, "sacFlies": 4, "stolenBases": 2, "slg": ".401", "totalBases": 195, "triples": 1, "atBats": 486, "baseOnBalls": 71, "ops": ".762", "hitByPitch": 4, "runs": 62, "sacBunts": 0, "homeRuns": 16, "avg": ".265", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 9, "caughtStealing": 0, "babip": ".324", "obp": ".361", "intentionalWalks": 1, "rbi": 69, "singles": 96 }, { "season": 2024, "stage": "regular", "player_id": 681807, "player": "David Fry", "team_id": 114, "team": "Cleveland Guardians", "num_teams": 1, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2024&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "plateAppearances": 392, "hits": 88, "doubles": 18, "strikeOuts": 84, "gamesPlayed": 122, "sacFlies": 4, "stolenBases": 4, "slg": ".448", "totalBases": 150, "triples": 1, "atBats": 335, "baseOnBalls": 42, "ops": ".804", "hitByPitch": 9, "runs": 44, "sacBunts": 0, "homeRuns": 14, "avg": ".263", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 13, "caughtStealing": 1, "babip": ".307", "obp": ".356", "intentionalWalks": 4, "rbi": 51, "singles": 55 }, { "season": 2024, "stage": "regular", "player_id": 672275, "player": "Patrick Bailey", "team_id": 137, "team": "San Francisco Giants", "num_teams": 1, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2024&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "plateAppearances": 448, "hits": 94, "doubles": 16, "strikeOuts": 100, "gamesPlayed": 121, "sacFlies": 7, "stolenBases": 4, "slg": ".339", "totalBases": 136, "triples": 1, "atBats": 401, "baseOnBalls": 39, "ops": ".637", "hitByPitch": 0, "runs": 46, "sacBunts": 1, "homeRuns": 8, "avg": ".234", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 10, "caughtStealing": 0, "babip": ".287", "obp": ".298", "intentionalWalks": 0, "rbi": 46, "singles": 69 }, { "season": 2024, "stage": "regular", "player_id": 682657, "player": "Angel Mart\u00ednez", "team_id": 114, "team": "Cleveland Guardians", "num_teams": 1, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2024&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "plateAppearances": 169, "hits": 35, "doubles": 7, "strikeOuts": 33, "gamesPlayed": 43, "sacFlies": 2, "stolenBases": 3, "slg": ".338", "totalBases": 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15, "airOuts": 16, "doubles": 0, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 1, "strikeOuts": 10, "baseOnBalls": 2, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 5, "hitByPitch": 0, "avg": ".116", "atBats": 43, "obp": ".152", "slg": ".186", "ops": ".338", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 0, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "numberOfPitches": 167, "plateAppearances": 48, "totalBases": 8, "rbi": 4, "leftOnBase": 18, "sacBunts": 2, "sacFlies": 1, "babip": ".121", "groundOutsToAirouts": "0.94", "catchersInterference": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "43.00" }, "team": { "id": 114, "name": "Cleveland Guardians", "link": "/api/v1/teams/114" }, "player": { "id": 690984, "fullName": "Petey Halpin", "link": "/api/v1/people/690984", "firstName": "Peter", "lastName": "Halpin" }, "league": { "id": 103, "name": "American League", "link": "/api/v1/league/103" }, "sport": { "id": 1, "link": "/api/v1/sports/1", "name": "Major League Baseball", "abbreviation": "MLB" }, "gameType": "R", "split": { "code": "vl", "description": "vs Left", "sortOrder": 73 }, "position": { "code": "8", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "CF" } }, { "season": "2026", "stat": { "gamesPlayed": 57, "groundOuts": 28, "airOuts": 50, "doubles": 4, "triples": 1, "homeRuns": 3, "strikeOuts": 25, "baseOnBalls": 7, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 35, "hitByPitch": 2, "avg": ".259", "atBats": 135, "obp": ".306", "slg": ".370", "ops": ".676", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 1, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "numberOfPitches": 496, "plateAppearances": 147, "totalBases": 50, "rbi": 10, "leftOnBase": 70, "sacBunts": 3, "sacFlies": 0, "babip": ".299", "groundOutsToAirouts": "0.56", "catchersInterference": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "45.00" }, "team": { "id": 114, "name": "Cleveland Guardians", "link": "/api/v1/teams/114" }, "player": { "id": 690984, "fullName": "Petey Halpin", "link": "/api/v1/people/690984", "firstName": "Peter", "lastName": "Halpin" }, "league": { "id": 103, "name": "American League", "link": "/api/v1/league/103" }, "sport": { "id": 1, "link": "/api/v1/sports/1", "name": "Major League Baseball", "abbreviation": "MLB" }, "gameType": "R", "split": { "code": "vr", "description": "vs Right", "sortOrder": 74 }, "position": { "code": "8", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "CF" } } ] } ], "mlbDebutDate": "2025-09-20", "batSide": { "code": "L", "description": "Left" }, "pitchHand": { "code": "R", "description": "Right" }, "nameFirstLast": "Petey Halpin", "nameSlug": "petey-halpin-690984", "firstLastName": "Petey Halpin", "lastFirstName": "Halpin, Petey", "lastInitName": "Halpin, P", "initLastName": "P Halpin", "fullFMLName": "Peter Lyndon Halpin", "fullLFMName": "Halpin, Peter Lyndon", "strikeZoneTop": 3.184, "strikeZoneBottom": 1.607 }, { "id": 542888, "fullName": "Shawn Armstrong", "link": "/api/v1/people/542888", "firstName": "Shawn", "lastName": "Armstrong", "primaryNumber": "43", "birthDate": "1990-09-11", "currentAge": 36, "birthCity": "New Bern", "birthStateProvince": "NC", "birthCountry": "USA", "height": "6' 2\"", "weight": 225, "active": true, "primaryPosition": { "code": "1", "name": "Pitcher", "type": "Pitcher", "abbreviation": "P" }, "useName": "Shawn", "useLastName": "Armstrong", "middleName": "Michael", "boxscoreName": "Armstrong", "nickName": "Armie", "gender": "M", "isPlayer": true, "isVerified": true, "draftYear": 2011, "stats": [ { "type": { "displayName": "statSplits" }, "group": { "displayName": "hitting" }, "exemptions": [], "splits": [] } ], "mlbDebutDate": "2015-08-08", "batSide": { "code": "R", "description": "Right" }, "pitchHand": { "code": "R", "description": "Right" }, "nameFirstLast": "Shawn Armstrong", "nameSlug": "shawn-armstrong-542888", "firstLastName": "Shawn Armstrong", "lastFirstName": "Armstrong, Shawn", "lastInitName": "Armstrong, S", "initLastName": "S Armstrong", "fullFMLName": "Shawn Michael Armstrong", "fullLFMName": "Armstrong, Shawn Michael", "strikeZoneTop": 3.299, "strikeZoneBottom": 1.665 }, { "id": 680757, "fullName": "Steven Kwan", "link": "/api/v1/people/680757", "firstName": "Steven", "lastName": "Kwan", "primaryNumber": "38", "birthDate": "1997-09-05", "currentAge": 29, "birthCity": "Los Gatos", "birthStateProvince": "CA", "birthCountry": "USA", "height": "5' 8\"", "weight": 170, "active": true, "primaryPosition": { "code": "7", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "LF" }, "useName": "Steven", "useLastName": "Kwan", "middleName": "Robert", "boxscoreName": "Kwan", "gender": "M", "isPlayer": true, "isVerified": false, "draftYear": 2018, "stats": [ { "type": { "displayName": "statSplits" }, "group": { "displayName": "hitting" }, "exemptions": [], "splits": [ { "season": "2026", "stat": { "gamesPlayed": 111, "groundOuts": 52, "airOuts": 56, "doubles": 5, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 0, "strikeOuts": 26, "baseOnBalls": 30, "intentionalWalks": 1, "hits": 39, "hitByPitch": 2, "avg": ".229", "atBats": 170, "obp": ".350", "slg": ".259", "ops": ".609", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 7, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "numberOfPitches": 845, "plateAppearances": 205, "totalBases": 44, "rbi": 9, "leftOnBase": 61, "sacBunts": 2, "sacFlies": 1, "babip": ".269", "groundOutsToAirouts": "0.93", "catchersInterference": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "-.--" }, "team": { "id": 114, "name": "Cleveland Guardians", "link": "/api/v1/teams/114" }, "player": { "id": 680757, "fullName": "Steven Kwan", "link": "/api/v1/people/680757", "firstName": "Steven", "lastName": "Kwan" }, "league": { "id": 103, "name": "American League", "link": "/api/v1/league/103" }, "sport": { "id": 1, "link": "/api/v1/sports/1", "name": "Major League Baseball", "abbreviation": "MLB" }, "gameType": "R", "split": { "code": "vl", "description": "vs Left", "sortOrder": 73 }, "position": { "code": "7", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "LF" } }, { "season": "2026", "stat": { "gamesPlayed": 139, "groundOuts": 101, "airOuts": 124, "doubles": 16, "triples": 3, "homeRuns": 3, "strikeOuts": 36, "baseOnBalls": 55, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 113, "hitByPitch": 2, "avg": ".306", "atBats": 369, "obp": ".397", "slg": ".390", "ops": ".787", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 3, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "numberOfPitches": 1773, "plateAppearances": 432, "totalBases": 144, "rbi": 23, "leftOnBase": 115, "sacBunts": 3, "sacFlies": 2, "babip": ".331", "groundOutsToAirouts": "0.81", "catchersInterference": 1, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "123.00" }, "team": { "id": 114, "name": "Cleveland Guardians", "link": "/api/v1/teams/114" }, "player": { "id": 680757, "fullName": "Steven Kwan", "link": "/api/v1/people/680757", "firstName": "Steven", "lastName": "Kwan" }, "league": { "id": 103, "name": "American League", "link": "/api/v1/league/103" }, "sport": { "id": 1, "link": "/api/v1/sports/1", "name": "Major League Baseball", "abbreviation": "MLB" }, "gameType": "R", "split": { "code": "vr", "description": "vs Right", "sortOrder": 74 }, "position": { "code": "7", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "LF" } } ] } ], "mlbDebutDate": "2022-04-07", "batSide": { "code": "L", "description": "Left" }, "pitchHand": { "code": "L", "description": "Left" }, "nameFirstLast": "Steven Kwan", "nameSlug": "steven-kwan-680757", "firstLastName": "Steven Kwan", "lastFirstName": "Kwan, Steven", "lastInitName": "Kwan, S", "initLastName": "S Kwan", "fullFMLName": "Steven Robert Kwan", "fullLFMName": "Kwan, Steven Robert", "strikeZoneTop": 3.023, "strikeZoneBottom": 1.525 }, { "id": 676440, "fullName": "Tanner Bibee", "link": "/api/v1/people/676440", "firstName": "Tanner", "lastName": "Bibee", "primaryNumber": "28", "birthDate": "1999-03-05", "currentAge": 27, "birthCity": "Mission Viejo", "birthStateProvince": "CA", "birthCountry": "USA", "height": "6' 2\"", "weight": 205, "active": true, "primaryPosition": { "code": "1", "name": "Pitcher", "type": "Pitcher", "abbreviation": "P" }, "useName": "Tanner", "useLastName": "Bibee", "middleName": "Hayes", "boxscoreName": "Bibee", "gender": "M", "isPlayer": true, "isVerified": true, "draftYear": 2021, "pronunciation": "BUY-bee", "stats": [ { "type": { "displayName": "statSplits" }, "group": { "displayName": "hitting" }, "exemptions": [], "splits": [] } ], "mlbDebutDate": "2023-04-26", "batSide": { "code": "R", "description": "Right" }, "pitchHand": { "code": "R", "description": "Right" }, "nameFirstLast": "Tanner Bibee", "nameSlug": "tanner-bibee-676440", "firstLastName": "Tanner Bibee", "lastFirstName": "Bibee, Tanner", "lastInitName": "Bibee, T", "initLastName": "T Bibee", "fullFMLName": "Tanner Hayes Bibee", "fullLFMName": "Bibee, Tanner Hayes", "strikeZoneTop": 3.299, "strikeZoneBottom": 1.665 }, { "id": 682120, "fullName": "Tim Herrin", "link": "/api/v1/people/682120", "firstName": "Tim", "lastName": "Herrin", "primaryNumber": "29", "birthDate": "1996-10-08", "currentAge": 30, "birthCity": "Terre Haute", "birthStateProvince": "IN", "birthCountry": "USA", "height": "6' 6\"", "weight": 230, "active": true, "primaryPosition": { "code": "1", "name": "Pitcher", "type": "Pitcher", "abbreviation": "P" }, "useName": "Tim", "useLastName": "Herrin", "middleName": "Edward", "boxscoreName": "Herrin", "gender": "M", "isPlayer": true, "isVerified": false, "draftYear": 2018, "stats": [ { "type": { "displayName": "statSplits" }, "group": { "displayName": "hitting" }, "exemptions": [], "splits": [] } ], "mlbDebutDate": "2023-04-02", "batSide": { "code": "L", "description": "Left" }, "pitchHand": { "code": "L", "description": "Left" }, "nameFirstLast": "Tim Herrin", "nameSlug": "tim-herrin-682120", "firstLastName": "Tim Herrin", "lastFirstName": "Herrin, Tim", "lastInitName": "Herrin, T", "initLastName": "T Herrin", "fullFMLName": "Tim Edward Herrin", "fullLFMName": "Herrin, Tim Edward", "strikeZoneTop": 3.478, "strikeZoneBottom": 1.755 }, { "id": 683953, "fullName": "Travis Bazzana", "link": "/api/v1/people/683953", "firstName": "Travis", "lastName": "Bazzana", "primaryNumber": "37", "birthDate": "2002-08-28", "currentAge": 24, "birthCity": "Hornsby", "birthStateProvince": "NSW", "birthCountry": "Australia", "height": "5' 11\"", "weight": 199, "active": true, "primaryPosition": { "code": "4", "name": "Second Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "2B" }, "useName": "Travis", "useLastName": "Bazzana", "middleName": "William", "boxscoreName": "Bazzana", "gender": "M", "isPlayer": true, "isVerified": true, "draftYear": 2024, "stats": [ { "type": { "displayName": "statSplits" }, "group": { "displayName": "hitting" }, "exemptions": [], "splits": [ { "season": "2026", "stat": { "gamesPlayed": 86, "groundOuts": 34, "airOuts": 44, "doubles": 3, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 2, "strikeOuts": 41, "baseOnBalls": 17, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 27, "hitByPitch": 2, "avg": ".185", "atBats": 146, "obp": ".279", "slg": ".247", "ops": ".526", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 0, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "numberOfPitches": 691, "plateAppearances": 165, "totalBases": 36, "rbi": 11, "leftOnBase": 77, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 0, "babip": ".243", "groundOutsToAirouts": "0.77", "catchersInterference": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "73.00" }, "team": { "id": 114, "name": "Cleveland Guardians", "link": "/api/v1/teams/114" }, "player": { "id": 683953, "fullName": "Travis Bazzana", "link": "/api/v1/people/683953", "firstName": "Travis", "lastName": "Bazzana" }, "league": { "id": 103, "name": "American League", "link": "/api/v1/league/103" }, "sport": { "id": 1, "link": "/api/v1/sports/1", "name": "Major League Baseball", "abbreviation": "MLB" }, "gameType": "R", "split": { "code": "vl", "description": "vs Left", "sortOrder": 73 }, "position": { "code": "4", "name": "Second Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "2B" } }, { "season": "2026", "stat": { "gamesPlayed": 113, "groundOuts": 72, "airOuts": 87, "doubles": 19, "triples": 3, "homeRuns": 13, "strikeOuts": 66, "baseOnBalls": 39, "intentionalWalks": 1, "hits": 83, "hitByPitch": 5, "avg": ".274", "atBats": 303, "obp": ".361", "slg": ".485", "ops": ".846", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 4, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "numberOfPitches": 1394, "plateAppearances": 352, "totalBases": 147, "rbi": 46, "leftOnBase": 116, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 5, "babip": ".306", "groundOutsToAirouts": "0.83", "catchersInterference": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "23.31" }, "team": { "id": 114, "name": "Cleveland Guardians", "link": "/api/v1/teams/114" }, "player": { "id": 683953, "fullName": "Travis Bazzana", "link": "/api/v1/people/683953", "firstName": "Travis", "lastName": "Bazzana" }, "league": { "id": 103, "name": "American League", "link": "/api/v1/league/103" }, "sport": { "id": 1, "link": "/api/v1/sports/1", "name": "Major League Baseball", "abbreviation": "MLB" }, "gameType": "R", "split": { "code": "vr", "description": "vs Right", "sortOrder": 74 }, "position": { "code": "4", "name": "Second Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "2B" } } ] } ], "mlbDebutDate": "2026-04-28", "batSide": { "code": "L", "description": "Left" }, "pitchHand": { "code": "R", "description": "Right" }, "nameFirstLast": "Travis Bazzana", "nameSlug": "travis-bazzana-683953", "firstLastName": "Travis Bazzana", "lastFirstName": "Bazzana, Travis", "lastInitName": "Bazzana, T", "initLastName": "T Bazzana", "fullFMLName": "Travis Bazzana", "fullLFMName": "Bazzana, Travis ", "strikeZoneTop": 3.179, "strikeZoneBottom": 1.604 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_ORDER_PA_AND_BENCH_BRANCH_REVIEWED", "findings": "Official preview projects HalpinCF over Mart\u00ednez after ALDS performance; quantify eighth-slot PA with separate 2024/2025/2026 histories. No injury of note reported; performance selection differs from absence. Retain Martinez alternative." }, { "sport": "MLB", "event_id": 849820, "team": "Tampa Bay Rays", "review_status": "CONDITIONAL_OPPORTUNITY_REVIEW_COMPLETE", "incumbent_id": null, "replacement_ids": null, "expected_opportunities": { "scenario": "Official projected starting nine; no-substitution branch", "ordered_starters": [ { "slot": 1, "player": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "player_id": 650490, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.333333333333333, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 2, "player": "Jonathan Aranda", "player_id": 666018, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.333333333333333, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 3, "player": "Junior Caminero", "player_id": 691406, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 4, "player": "Victor Mesa Jr.", "player_id": 683748, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 5, "player": "Ryan Vilade", "player_id": 668723, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 6, "player": "Liam Hicks", "player_id": 689414, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.6666666666666665, "observed_range": [ 3, 4 ] }, { "slot": 7, "player": "Jonny DeLuca", "player_id": 676356, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.3333333333333335, "observed_range": [ 3, 4 ] }, { "slot": 8, "player": "Richie Palacios", "player_id": 680700, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.3333333333333335, "observed_range": [ 3, 4 ] }, { "slot": 9, "player": "Taylor Walls", "player_id": 670764, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.3333333333333335, "observed_range": [ 3, 4 ] } ], "empirical_slot_PA_by_stage": { "D": { "n_games": 3, "slots": { "1": [ 4, 5, 4 ], "2": [ 4, 5, 4 ], "3": [ 4, 4, 4 ], "4": [ 4, 4, 4 ], "5": [ 4, 4, 4 ], "6": [ 3, 4, 4 ], "7": [ 3, 4, 3 ], "8": [ 3, 4, 3 ], "9": [ 3, 4, 3 ] } }, "R": { "n_games": 9, "slots": { "1": [ 4, 4, 4, 5, 4, 5, 4, 6, 4 ], "2": [ 4, 4, 3, 5, 4, 5, 4, 6, 4 ], "3": [ 4, 4, 3, 5, 4, 5, 4, 6, 4 ], "4": [ 4, 4, 3, 4, 4, 5, 4, 6, 4 ], "5": [ 4, 3, 3, 4, 4, 5, 4, 5, 4 ], "6": [ 4, 3, 3, 4, 4, 5, 4, 5, 4 ], "7": [ 4, 3, 3, 4, 4, 5, 4, 5, 4 ], "8": [ 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5, 4 ], "9": [ 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 5, 3 ] } } }, "chosen_reference_stage": "D", "conditional_team_PA": 34.333333333333336, "opportunity_branches": [ { "incumbent_reference_id": 668723, "incumbent": "Ryan Vilade", "replacement_id": 802415, "replacement": "Chandler Simpson", "slot": 5, "affected_PA": 4.0, "position_chain": "Simpson LF, Mesa LF->RF, Vilade bench", "bench_substitution": "A bench PA transfers one PA from same slot, never adds to team PA. No unsupported bench appearance probability assigned.", "status": "ANALYST SENSITIVITY, not confirmed lineup" } ], "opponent_starter_hand": "L", "opponent_starter": "Foster Griffin", "bullpen_hand_exposure": "Unknown; do not extend starting pitcher hand to all PA", "normalization": "wOBA league value and scale not verified; no OPS/HR/RBI subtraction or invented coefficient" }, "reference_lineup": [ { "slot": 1, "player": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "player_id": 650490, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.333333333333333, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 2, "player": "Jonathan Aranda", "player_id": 666018, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.333333333333333, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 3, "player": "Junior Caminero", "player_id": 691406, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 4, "player": "Victor Mesa Jr.", "player_id": 683748, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 5, "player": "Ryan Vilade", "player_id": 668723, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 6, "player": "Liam Hicks", "player_id": 689414, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.6666666666666665, "observed_range": [ 3, 4 ] }, { "slot": 7, "player": "Jonny DeLuca", "player_id": 676356, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.3333333333333335, "observed_range": [ 3, 4 ] }, { "slot": 8, "player": "Richie Palacios", "player_id": 680700, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.3333333333333335, "observed_range": [ 3, 4 ] }, { "slot": 9, "player": "Taylor Walls", "player_id": 670764, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.3333333333333335, "observed_range": [ 3, 4 ] } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Fresh official March25-October12 inventory; both sides of every covered-team person trade retained.", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "runs", "adjustment_units": "runs", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "version": "event-review-2026-10-12-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-12T05:39:57.160121+00:00", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401908023", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 3.9978009259259255, 4.410956790123456 ], "Primary": [ 3.1237759923355632, 3.5547010587274968 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 3.9978009259259255, 4.410956790123456 ], "Primary": [ 3.1237759923355632, 3.5547010587274968 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ] }, "adjusted_score_status": "Unestimated; original scores retained as base, not silently labeled adjusted.", "baseline_exposure": "Registered aggregates do not identify each player reference weight. All player workload variants are sensitivities, not calibrated corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED_ALLOWED: no validated role-controlled run/PPP/goal coefficient", "gate_outcome": "CONDITIONAL_REVIEW_COMPLETE_NUMERIC_EFFECT_UNESTIMATED", "football_minus3": 0, "uncertainty": "Projected role is not confirmed lineup. Preserve unknown numerical effect, teammate/opponent confounding and reference exposure.", "collector_source": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\Offensive-Replacement-Tracking\\capture-20261012T053148Z", "price_inputs_used": false, "sources": [ "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/139/roster/active", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/game/849838/boxscore", "https://www.mlb.com/news/guardians-vs-rays-alcs-game-1-starting-lineups-and-pitching-matchup" ], "reference_date": "2026-10-12 official projected preview", "comparison_player_ids": [ 571927, 592155, 607259, 622761, 641329, 642121, 642547, 643377, 650490, 656775, 656876, 663743, 664076, 666018, 668723, 669330, 670764, 676356, 680700, 683748, 687330, 689414, 691406, 693855, 802415, 810938 ], "two_season_comparison_rows": [ { "season": 2024, "stage": "regular", "player_id": 650490, "player": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "team_id": 139, "team": "Tampa Bay Rays", "num_teams": 1, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2024&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "plateAppearances": 621, "hits": 158, "doubles": 31, "strikeOuts": 95, "gamesPlayed": 145, "sacFlies": 4, "stolenBases": 0, "slg": ".414", "totalBases": 233, "triples": 1, "atBats": 563, "baseOnBalls": 50, "ops": ".755", "hitByPitch": 4, "runs": 55, "sacBunts": 0, "homeRuns": 14, "avg": ".281", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 12, "caughtStealing": 0, "babip": ".314", "obp": ".341", "intentionalWalks": 0, "rbi": 65, "singles": 112 }, { "season": 2024, "stage": "regular", "player_id": 691406, "player": "Junior Caminero", "team_id": 139, "team": "Tampa Bay Rays", "num_teams": 1, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2024&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "plateAppearances": 177, "hits": 41, "doubles": 9, "strikeOuts": 38, "gamesPlayed": 43, "sacFlies": 0, "stolenBases": 2, "slg": ".424", "totalBases": 70, "triples": 1, "atBats": 165, "baseOnBalls": 11, "ops": ".723", "hitByPitch": 1, "runs": 15, "sacBunts": 0, "homeRuns": 6, "avg": ".248", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 2, "caughtStealing": 0, "babip": ".289", "obp": ".299", "intentionalWalks": 2, "rbi": 18, "singles": 25 }, { "season": 2024, "stage": "regular", "player_id": 666018, "player": "Jonathan Aranda", "team_id": 139, "team": "Tampa Bay Rays", "num_teams": 1, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2024&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "plateAppearances": 143, "hits": 30, "doubles": 7, "strikeOuts": 32, "gamesPlayed": 44, "sacFlies": 1, "stolenBases": 0, "slg": ".430", "totalBases": 55, "triples": 0, "atBats": 128, "baseOnBalls": 12, "ops": ".738", "hitByPitch": 2, "runs": 22, "sacBunts": 0, "homeRuns": 6, "avg": ".234", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 2, "caughtStealing": 0, "babip": ".264", "obp": ".308", "intentionalWalks": 0, "rbi": 14, "singles": 17 }, { "season": 2024, "stage": "regular", "player_id": 656775, "player": "Cedric Mullins", "team_id": 110, "team": "Baltimore Orioles", "num_teams": 1, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2024&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "plateAppearances": 499, "hits": 104, "doubles": 16, "strikeOuts": 98, "gamesPlayed": 147, "sacFlies": 2, "stolenBases": 32, "slg": ".405", "totalBases": 180, "triples": 3, "atBats": 444, "baseOnBalls": 41, "ops": ".710", "hitByPitch": 5, "runs": 69, "sacBunts": 2, "homeRuns": 18, "avg": ".234", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 1, "caughtStealing": 6, "babip": ".261", "obp": ".305", "intentionalWalks": 0, "rbi": 54, "singles": 67 }, { "season": 2024, "stage": "regular", "player_id": 622761, "player": "Jorge Mateo", "team_id": 110, "team": "Baltimore Orioles", "num_teams": 1, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2024&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "plateAppearances": 208, "hits": 44, "doubles": 14, "strikeOuts": 48, "gamesPlayed": 68, "sacFlies": 3, "stolenBases": 13, "slg": ".401", "totalBases": 77, "triples": 2, "atBats": 192, "baseOnBalls": 10, "ops": ".668", "hitByPitch": 1, "runs": 30, "sacBunts": 2, "homeRuns": 5, "avg": ".229", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 3, "caughtStealing": 2, "babip": ".275", "obp": ".267", "intentionalWalks": 0, "rbi": 18, "singles": 23 }, { "season": 2024, "stage": "regular", "player_id": 663743, "player": "Nick Fortes", "team_id": 146, "team": "Miami Marlins", "num_teams": 1, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2024&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "plateAppearances": 335, "hits": 70, "doubles": 16, "strikeOuts": 41, "gamesPlayed": 110, "sacFlies": 5, "stolenBases": 0, "slg": ".318", "totalBases": 98, "triples": 0, "atBats": 308, "baseOnBalls": 11, "ops": ".577", "hitByPitch": 4, "runs": 28, "sacBunts": 7, "homeRuns": 4, "avg": ".227", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 6, "caughtStealing": 1, "babip": ".246", "obp": ".259", "intentionalWalks": 0, "rbi": 29, "singles": 50 }, { "season": 2024, "stage": "regular", "player_id": 680700, "player": "Richie Palacios", "team_id": 139, "team": "Tampa Bay Rays", "num_teams": 1, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2024&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "plateAppearances": 316, "hits": 59, "doubles": 8, "strikeOuts": 67, "gamesPlayed": 92, "sacFlies": 1, "stolenBases": 19, "slg": ".318", "totalBases": 84, "triples": 1, "atBats": 264, "baseOnBalls": 45, "ops": ".664", "hitByPitch": 5, "runs": 46, "sacBunts": 0, "homeRuns": 5, "avg": ".223", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 5, "caughtStealing": 1, "babip": ".280", "obp": ".346", "intentionalWalks": 2, "rbi": 21, "singles": 45 }, { "season": 2024, "stage": "regular", "player_id": 676356, "player": "Jonny DeLuca", "team_id": 139, "team": "Tampa Bay Rays", "num_teams": 1, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2024&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "plateAppearances": 362, "hits": 72, "doubles": 12, "strikeOuts": 77, "gamesPlayed": 107, "sacFlies": 0, "stolenBases": 16, "slg": ".331", "totalBases": 110, "triples": 4, "atBats": 332, "baseOnBalls": 24, "ops": ".609", "hitByPitch": 4, "runs": 29, "sacBunts": 2, "homeRuns": 6, "avg": ".217", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 1, "caughtStealing": 6, "babip": ".265", "obp": ".278", "intentionalWalks": 1, "rbi": 31, "singles": 50 }, { "season": 2024, "stage": "regular", "player_id": 670764, "player": "Taylor Walls", "team_id": 139, "team": "Tampa Bay Rays", "num_teams": 1, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2024&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "plateAppearances": 252, "hits": 40, "doubles": 5, "strikeOuts": 67, "gamesPlayed": 84, "sacFlies": 3, "stolenBases": 16, "slg": ".248", "totalBases": 54, "triples": 3, "atBats": 218, "baseOnBalls": 31, "ops": ".530", "hitByPitch": 0, "runs": 27, "sacBunts": 0, "homeRuns": 1, "avg": ".183", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 3, "caughtStealing": 4, "babip": ".255", "obp": ".282", "intentionalWalks": 0, "rbi": 14, "singles": 31 }, { "season": 2024, "stage": "regular", "player_id": 668723, "player": "Ryan Vilade", "team_id": 116, "team": "Detroit Tigers", "num_teams": 1, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2024&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "plateAppearances": 49, "hits": 8, "doubles": 0, "strikeOuts": 12, "gamesPlayed": 17, "sacFlies": 1, "stolenBases": 0, "slg": ".244", "totalBases": 11, "triples": 0, "atBats": 45, "baseOnBalls": 2, "ops": ".452", "hitByPitch": 0, "runs": 5, "sacBunts": 1, "homeRuns": 1, "avg": ".178", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 2, "caughtStealing": 0, "babip": ".212", "obp": ".208", "intentionalWalks": 0, "rbi": 5, "singles": 7 }, { "season": 2025, "stage": "regular", "player_id": 676356, "player": "Jonny DeLuca", "team_id": 139, "team": "Tampa Bay Rays", "num_teams": 1, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2025&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "plateAppearances": 59, "hits": 19, "doubles": 1, "strikeOuts": 13, "gamesPlayed": 20, "sacFlies": 0, "stolenBases": 6, "slg": ".456", "totalBases": 26, "triples": 3, "atBats": 57, "baseOnBalls": 2, "ops": ".812", "hitByPitch": 0, "runs": 5, "sacBunts": 0, "homeRuns": 0, "avg": ".333", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 0, "caughtStealing": 0, "babip": ".432", "obp": ".356", "intentionalWalks": 0, "rbi": 4, "singles": 15 }, { "season": 2025, "stage": "regular", "player_id": 680700, "player": "Richie Palacios", "team_id": 139, "team": "Tampa Bay Rays", "num_teams": 1, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2025&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "plateAppearances": 48, "hits": 14, 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"caughtStealing": 2, "babip": ".409", "obp": ".393", "intentionalWalks": 3, "rbi": 59, "singles": 81 }, { "season": 2025, "stage": "regular", "player_id": 650490, "player": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "team_id": 139, "team": "Tampa Bay Rays", "num_teams": 1, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2025&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "plateAppearances": 651, "hits": 175, "doubles": 29, "strikeOuts": 92, "gamesPlayed": 150, "sacFlies": 5, "stolenBases": 3, "slg": ".482", "totalBases": 281, "triples": 1, "atBats": 583, "baseOnBalls": 57, "ops": ".848", "hitByPitch": 6, "runs": 79, "sacBunts": 0, "homeRuns": 25, "avg": ".300", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 12, "caughtStealing": 1, "babip": ".318", "obp": ".366", "intentionalWalks": 4, "rbi": 83, "singles": 120 }, { "season": 2025, "stage": "regular", "player_id": 802415, "player": "Chandler Simpson", "team_id": 139, "team": "Tampa Bay Rays", "num_teams": 1, "source": 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"link": "/api/v1/sports/1", "name": "Major League Baseball", "abbreviation": "MLB" }, "gameType": "R", "split": { "code": "vr", "description": "vs Right", "sortOrder": 74 }, "position": { "code": "9", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "RF" } } ] } ], "mlbDebutDate": "2021-09-18", "batSide": { "code": "R", "description": "Right" }, "pitchHand": { "code": "R", "description": "Right" }, "nameFirstLast": "Ryan Vilade", "nameSlug": "ryan-vilade-668723", "firstLastName": "Ryan Vilade", "lastFirstName": "Vilade, Ryan", "lastInitName": "Vilade, R", "initLastName": "R Vilade", "fullFMLName": "Ryan James Vilade", "fullLFMName": "Vilade, Ryan James", "strikeZoneTop": 3.28, "strikeZoneBottom": 1.65 }, { "id": 571927, "fullName": "Steven Matz", "link": "/api/v1/people/571927", "firstName": "Steven", "lastName": "Matz", "primaryNumber": "32", "birthDate": "1991-05-29", "currentAge": 35, "birthCity": "Stony Brook", "birthStateProvince": "NY", "birthCountry": "USA", "height": "6' 2\"", "weight": 205, "active": true, "primaryPosition": { "code": "1", "name": "Pitcher", "type": "Pitcher", "abbreviation": "P" }, "useName": "Steven", "useLastName": "Matz", "middleName": "Jakob", "boxscoreName": "Matz", "nickName": "Matzy", "gender": "M", "isPlayer": true, "isVerified": true, "draftYear": 2009, "pronunciation": "Mats", "stats": [ { "type": { "displayName": "statSplits" }, "group": { "displayName": "hitting" }, "exemptions": [], "splits": [] } ], "mlbDebutDate": "2015-06-28", "batSide": { "code": "R", "description": "Right" }, "pitchHand": { "code": "L", "description": "Left" }, "nameFirstLast": "Steven Matz", "nameSlug": "steven-matz-571927", "firstLastName": "Steven Matz", "lastFirstName": "Matz, Steven", "lastInitName": "Matz, S", "initLastName": "S Matz", "fullFMLName": "Steven Jakob Matz", "fullLFMName": "Matz, Steven Jakob", "strikeZoneTop": 3.299, "strikeZoneBottom": 1.665 }, { "id": 670764, "fullName": "Taylor Walls", "link": "/api/v1/people/670764", "firstName": "Taylor", "lastName": "Walls", "primaryNumber": "6", "birthDate": "1996-07-10", "currentAge": 30, "birthCity": "Cordele", "birthStateProvince": "GA", "birthCountry": "USA", "height": "5' 9\"", "weight": 185, "active": true, "primaryPosition": { "code": "6", "name": "Shortstop", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "SS" }, "useName": "Taylor", "useLastName": "Walls", "boxscoreName": "Walls", "gender": "M", "isPlayer": true, "isVerified": true, "draftYear": 2017, "stats": [ { "type": { "displayName": "statSplits" }, "group": { "displayName": "hitting" }, "exemptions": [], "splits": [ { "season": "2026", "stat": { "gamesPlayed": 79, "groundOuts": 30, "airOuts": 52, "doubles": 6, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 1, "strikeOuts": 33, "baseOnBalls": 12, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 27, "hitByPitch": 1, "avg": ".203", "atBats": 133, "obp": ".270", "slg": ".271", "ops": ".541", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 2, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "numberOfPitches": 575, "plateAppearances": 155, "totalBases": 36, "rbi": 12, "leftOnBase": 60, "sacBunts": 7, "sacFlies": 2, "babip": ".257", "groundOutsToAirouts": "0.58", "catchersInterference": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "133.00" }, "team": { "id": 139, "name": "Tampa Bay Rays", "link": "/api/v1/teams/139" }, "player": { "id": 670764, "fullName": "Taylor Walls", "link": "/api/v1/people/670764", "firstName": "Taylor", "lastName": "Walls" }, "league": { "id": 103, "name": "American League", "link": "/api/v1/league/103" }, "sport": { "id": 1, "link": "/api/v1/sports/1", "name": "Major League Baseball", "abbreviation": "MLB" }, "gameType": "R", "split": { "code": "vl", "description": "vs Left", "sortOrder": 73 }, "position": { "code": "6", "name": "Shortstop", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "SS" } }, { "season": "2026", "stat": { "gamesPlayed": 105, "groundOuts": 56, "airOuts": 60, "doubles": 12, "triples": 2, "homeRuns": 1, "strikeOuts": 72, "baseOnBalls": 33, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 55, "hitByPitch": 2, "avg": ".233", "atBats": 236, "obp": ".330", "slg": ".314", "ops": ".644", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 2, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "numberOfPitches": 1122, "plateAppearances": 278, "totalBases": 74, "rbi": 24, "leftOnBase": 93, "sacBunts": 5, "sacFlies": 2, "babip": ".327", "groundOutsToAirouts": "0.93", "catchersInterference": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "236.00" }, "team": { "id": 139, "name": "Tampa Bay Rays", "link": "/api/v1/teams/139" }, "player": { "id": 670764, "fullName": "Taylor Walls", "link": "/api/v1/people/670764", "firstName": "Taylor", "lastName": "Walls" }, "league": { "id": 103, "name": "American League", "link": "/api/v1/league/103" }, "sport": { "id": 1, "link": "/api/v1/sports/1", "name": "Major League Baseball", "abbreviation": "MLB" }, "gameType": "R", "split": { "code": "vr", "description": "vs Right", "sortOrder": 74 }, "position": { "code": "6", "name": "Shortstop", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "SS" } } ] } ], "mlbDebutDate": "2021-05-22", "batSide": { "code": "S", "description": "Switch" }, "pitchHand": { "code": "R", "description": "Right" }, "nameFirstLast": "Taylor Walls", "nameSlug": "taylor-walls-670764", "firstLastName": "Taylor Walls", "lastFirstName": "Walls, Taylor", "lastInitName": "Walls, T", "initLastName": "T Walls", "fullFMLName": "Taylor Walls", "fullLFMName": "Walls, Taylor", "strikeZoneTop": 3.056, "strikeZoneBottom": 1.542 }, { "id": 669330, "fullName": "Tyler Wells", "link": "/api/v1/people/669330", "firstName": "Tyler", "lastName": "Wells", "primaryNumber": "68", "birthDate": "1994-08-26", "currentAge": 32, "birthCity": "Tulsa", "birthStateProvince": "OK", "birthCountry": "USA", "height": "6' 8\"", "weight": 270, "active": true, "primaryPosition": { "code": "1", "name": "Pitcher", "type": "Pitcher", "abbreviation": "P" }, "useName": "Tyler", "useLastName": "Wells", "middleName": "Austin", "boxscoreName": "Wells, T", "gender": "M", "isPlayer": true, "isVerified": false, "draftYear": 2016, "stats": [ { "type": { "displayName": "statSplits" }, "group": { "displayName": "hitting" }, "exemptions": [], "splits": [] } ], "mlbDebutDate": "2021-04-04", "batSide": { "code": "R", "description": "Right" }, "pitchHand": { "code": "R", "description": "Right" }, "nameFirstLast": "Tyler Wells", "nameSlug": "tyler-wells-669330", "firstLastName": "Tyler Wells", "lastFirstName": "Wells, Tyler", "lastInitName": "Wells, T", "initLastName": "T Wells", "fullFMLName": "Tyler Austin Wells", "fullLFMName": "Wells, Tyler Austin", "strikeZoneTop": 3.567, "strikeZoneBottom": 1.8 }, { "id": 683748, "fullName": "Victor Mesa Jr.", "link": "/api/v1/people/683748", "firstName": "Victor", "lastName": "Mesa", "primaryNumber": "25", "birthDate": "2001-09-08", "currentAge": 25, "birthCity": "Havana", "birthCountry": "Cuba", "height": "5' 11\"", "weight": 195, "active": true, "primaryPosition": { "code": "9", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "RF" }, "useName": "Victor", "useLastName": "Mesa Jr.", "boxscoreName": "Mesa Jr.", "gender": "M", "nameMatrilineal": "Rios", "isPlayer": true, "isVerified": true, "stats": [ { "type": { "displayName": "statSplits" }, "group": { "displayName": "hitting" }, "exemptions": [], "splits": [ { "season": "2026", "stat": { "gamesPlayed": 39, "groundOuts": 12, "airOuts": 20, "doubles": 3, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 2, "strikeOuts": 9, "baseOnBalls": 5, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 20, "hitByPitch": 0, "avg": ".333", "atBats": 60, "obp": ".385", "slg": ".483", "ops": ".868", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 1, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "numberOfPitches": 218, "plateAppearances": 66, "totalBases": 29, "rbi": 5, "leftOnBase": 25, "sacBunts": 1, "sacFlies": 0, "babip": ".367", "groundOutsToAirouts": "0.60", "catchersInterference": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "30.00" }, "team": { "id": 139, "name": "Tampa Bay Rays", "link": "/api/v1/teams/139" }, "player": { "id": 683748, "fullName": "Victor Mesa Jr.", "link": "/api/v1/people/683748", "firstName": "Victor", "lastName": "Mesa" }, "league": { "id": 103, "name": "American League", "link": "/api/v1/league/103" }, "sport": { "id": 1, "link": "/api/v1/sports/1", "name": "Major League Baseball", "abbreviation": "MLB" }, "gameType": "R", "split": { "code": "vl", "description": "vs Left", "sortOrder": 73 }, "position": { "code": "9", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "RF" } }, { "season": "2026", "stat": { "gamesPlayed": 68, "groundOuts": 29, "airOuts": 63, "doubles": 5, "triples": 3, "homeRuns": 12, "strikeOuts": 44, "baseOnBalls": 18, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 41, "hitByPitch": 1, "avg": ".234", "atBats": 175, "obp": ".308", "slg": ".503", "ops": ".811", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 1, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "numberOfPitches": 723, "plateAppearances": 196, "totalBases": 88, "rbi": 29, "leftOnBase": 72, "sacBunts": 1, "sacFlies": 1, "babip": ".242", "groundOutsToAirouts": "0.46", "catchersInterference": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "14.58" }, "team": { "id": 139, "name": "Tampa Bay Rays", "link": "/api/v1/teams/139" }, "player": { "id": 683748, "fullName": "Victor Mesa Jr.", "link": "/api/v1/people/683748", "firstName": "Victor", "lastName": "Mesa" }, "league": { "id": 103, "name": "American League", "link": "/api/v1/league/103" }, "sport": { "id": 1, "link": "/api/v1/sports/1", "name": "Major League Baseball", "abbreviation": "MLB" }, "gameType": "R", "split": { "code": "vr", "description": "vs Right", "sortOrder": 74 }, "position": { "code": "9", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "RF" } } ] } ], "mlbDebutDate": "2025-05-26", "batSide": { "code": "L", "description": "Left" }, "pitchHand": { "code": "L", "description": "Left" }, "nameFirstLast": "Victor Mesa Jr.", "nameTitle": "Jr.", "nameSuffix": "Jr.", "nameSlug": "victor-mesa-jr-683748", "firstLastName": "Victor Mesa Jr.", "lastFirstName": "Mesa Jr., Victor", "lastInitName": "Mesa Jr., V", "initLastName": "V Mesa Jr.", "fullFMLName": "Victor Mesa Jr.", "fullLFMName": "Mesa Jr., Victor", "strikeZoneTop": 3.16, "strikeZoneBottom": 1.59 }, { "id": 650490, "fullName": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "link": "/api/v1/people/650490", "firstName": "Yandy", "lastName": "D\u00edaz", "primaryNumber": "2", "birthDate": "1991-08-08", "currentAge": 35, "birthCity": "Sagua la Grande", "birthCountry": "Cuba", "height": "6' 0\"", "weight": 235, "active": true, "primaryPosition": { "code": "10", "name": "Designated Hitter", "type": "Hitter", "abbreviation": "DH" }, "useName": "Yandy", "useLastName": "D\u00edaz", "boxscoreName": "D\u00edaz, Y", "nickName": "Aranita Diaz", "gender": "M", "nameMatrilineal": "Fernandez", "isPlayer": true, "isVerified": true, "pronunciation": "YAHN-dee", "stats": [ { "type": { "displayName": "statSplits" }, "group": { "displayName": "hitting" }, "exemptions": [], "splits": [ { "season": "2026", "stat": { "gamesPlayed": 85, "groundOuts": 55, "airOuts": 54, "doubles": 7, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 8, "strikeOuts": 24, "baseOnBalls": 20, "intentionalWalks": 4, "hits": 47, "hitByPitch": 2, "avg": ".264", "atBats": 178, "obp": ".342", "slg": ".438", "ops": ".780", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 4, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "numberOfPitches": 746, "plateAppearances": 202, "totalBases": 78, "rbi": 27, "leftOnBase": 55, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 2, "babip": ".264", "groundOutsToAirouts": "1.02", "catchersInterference": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "22.25" }, "team": { "id": 139, "name": "Tampa Bay Rays", "link": "/api/v1/teams/139" }, "player": { "id": 650490, "fullName": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "link": "/api/v1/people/650490", "firstName": "Yandy", "lastName": "D\u00edaz" }, "league": { "id": 103, "name": "American League", "link": "/api/v1/league/103" }, "sport": { "id": 1, "link": "/api/v1/sports/1", "name": "Major League Baseball", "abbreviation": "MLB" }, "gameType": "R", "split": { "code": "vl", "description": "vs Left", "sortOrder": 73 }, "position": { "code": "10", "name": "Designated Hitter", "type": "Hitter", "abbreviation": "DH" } }, { "season": "2026", "stat": { "gamesPlayed": 144, "groundOuts": 140, "airOuts": 93, "doubles": 19, "triples": 1, "homeRuns": 14, "strikeOuts": 74, "baseOnBalls": 36, "intentionalWalks": 2, "hits": 133, "hitByPitch": 8, "avg": ".305", "atBats": 436, "obp": ".366", "slg": ".450", "ops": ".816", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 11, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "numberOfPitches": 1800, "plateAppearances": 484, "totalBases": 196, "rbi": 58, "leftOnBase": 140, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 4, "babip": ".338", "groundOutsToAirouts": "1.51", "catchersInterference": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "31.14" }, "team": { "id": 139, "name": "Tampa Bay Rays", "link": "/api/v1/teams/139" }, "player": { "id": 650490, "fullName": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "link": "/api/v1/people/650490", "firstName": "Yandy", "lastName": "D\u00edaz" }, "league": { "id": 103, "name": "American League", "link": "/api/v1/league/103" }, "sport": { "id": 1, "link": "/api/v1/sports/1", "name": "Major League Baseball", "abbreviation": "MLB" }, "gameType": "R", "split": { "code": "vr", "description": "vs Right", "sortOrder": 74 }, "position": { "code": "10", "name": "Designated Hitter", "type": "Hitter", "abbreviation": "DH" } } ] } ], "mlbDebutDate": "2017-04-03", "batSide": { "code": "R", "description": "Right" }, "pitchHand": { "code": "R", "description": "Right" }, "nameFirstLast": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "nameSlug": "yandy-diaz-650490", "firstLastName": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "lastFirstName": "D\u00edaz, Yandy", "lastInitName": "D\u00edaz, Y", "initLastName": "Y D\u00edaz", "fullFMLName": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "fullLFMName": "D\u00edaz, Yandy", "strikeZoneTop": 3.228, "strikeZoneBottom": 1.629 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_ORDER_PA_AND_BENCH_BRANCH_REVIEWED", "findings": "Updated official preview with Griffin confirmed left-hander projects ViladeRF, MesaLF and Simpson bench. Compare this exact chain and Simpson return branch using affected PA. McClanahan season-ending absence belongs pitching, not hitter overlay." } ], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays", "market": { "id": "401908023", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/summary?event=401908023", "requested_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.510906+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.803059+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": 130.0, "away_line_price": -157.0, "total": 6.5, "under_line": 6.5, "over_price": -122.0, "under_price": 101.0, "home_ml": -172.0, "away_ml": 142.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 6.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.4131558641975306, "combined": 8.408757716049381, "spread_buffer": -1.0868441358024694, "total_difference": 1.9087577160493812 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.4131558641975306, "combined": 8.408757716049381, "spread_buffer": -1.0868441358024694, "total_difference": 1.9087577160493812 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0, "base_buffer": 1.0868441358024694, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.08684413580246941, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "NOT_CERTIFIED; no supported bound on the documented starter/lineup/bullpen branches", "final_state": "LEAN", "production_decision": "PASS", "promotion_allowed": false, "selection": "Cleveland Guardians", "line": 1.5, "price": -157.0, "stressed_home_margin": 1.4131558641975306, "reason": "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility.", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility.", "Rasmussen (2026 2.67 ERA/172IP) last worked eight shutout innings/101 pitches Oct3; Griffin last worked2.2IP Oct7. Griffin current-year team splits are Washington3.06ERA/129.1IP and Cleveland5.19ERA/43.1IP, combined3.60ERA/172.2IP: splits and total are not added. A longer effective Rasmussen outing suppresses CLE scoring and is adverse to CLE+1.5 and Over6.5. Effective Griffin innings could also suppress the total, while short/ineffective Griffin innings harm CLE side but can help Over.", "Official preview projects CLE Halpin over Angel Martinez after ALDS performance, not injury. TB projected ViladeRF/MesaLF and Simpson bench against left-handed Griffin is a handedness/late-game chain; projected order is not a confirmed nine.", "CLE preview records27 bullpen innings in postseason; Oct10 ET Smith27pitches/1.2IP and Gaddis24/1.1IP followed Oct8 workloads Smith31 and Gaddis16. Oct11 was an off day, so neither is assumed unavailable. TB had no appearances in the captured last3calendar-day window after the sweep; rested relief may sustain a low Cleveland score. CLE needing another long bridge threatens +1.5; weaker CLE relief can raise, not lower, the total." ] }, "total": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0, "base_buffer": 1.9087577160493812, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.9087577160493812, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "NOT_CERTIFIED; no supported bound on the documented starter/lineup/bullpen branches", "final_state": "LEAN", "production_decision": "PASS", "promotion_allowed": false, "selection": "Over", "line": 6.5, "price": -122.0, "stressed_total_one_run_only": 7.408757716049381, "reason": "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility.", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility.", "Rasmussen (2026 2.67 ERA/172IP) last worked eight shutout innings/101 pitches Oct3; Griffin last worked2.2IP Oct7. Griffin current-year team splits are Washington3.06ERA/129.1IP and Cleveland5.19ERA/43.1IP, combined3.60ERA/172.2IP: splits and total are not added. A longer effective Rasmussen outing suppresses CLE scoring and is adverse to CLE+1.5 and Over6.5. Effective Griffin innings could also suppress the total, while short/ineffective Griffin innings harm CLE side but can help Over.", "Official preview projects CLE Halpin over Angel Martinez after ALDS performance, not injury. TB projected ViladeRF/MesaLF and Simpson bench against left-handed Griffin is a handedness/late-game chain; projected order is not a confirmed nine." ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.4309250663919335, "combined": 6.67847705106306, "spread_buffer": -1.0690749336080665, "total_difference": 0.17847705106306044 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.4309250663919335, "combined": 6.67847705106306, "spread_buffer": -1.0690749336080665, "total_difference": 0.17847705106306044 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0, "base_buffer": 1.0690749336080665, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.06907493360806649, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "NOT_CERTIFIED; no supported bound on the documented starter/lineup/bullpen branches", "final_state": "LEAN", "production_decision": "PASS", "promotion_allowed": false, "selection": "Cleveland Guardians", "line": 1.5, "price": -157.0, "stressed_home_margin": 1.4309250663919335, "reason": "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility.", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility.", "Rasmussen (2026 2.67 ERA/172IP) last worked eight shutout innings/101 pitches Oct3; Griffin last worked2.2IP Oct7. Griffin current-year team splits are Washington3.06ERA/129.1IP and Cleveland5.19ERA/43.1IP, combined3.60ERA/172.2IP: splits and total are not added. A longer effective Rasmussen outing suppresses CLE scoring and is adverse to CLE+1.5 and Over6.5. Effective Griffin innings could also suppress the total, while short/ineffective Griffin innings harm CLE side but can help Over.", "Official preview projects CLE Halpin over Angel Martinez after ALDS performance, not injury. TB projected ViladeRF/MesaLF and Simpson bench against left-handed Griffin is a handedness/late-game chain; projected order is not a confirmed nine.", "CLE preview records27 bullpen innings in postseason; Oct10 ET Smith27pitches/1.2IP and Gaddis24/1.1IP followed Oct8 workloads Smith31 and Gaddis16. Oct11 was an off day, so neither is assumed unavailable. TB had no appearances in the captured last3calendar-day window after the sweep; rested relief may sustain a low Cleveland score. CLE needing another long bridge threatens +1.5; weaker CLE relief can raise, not lower, the total." ] }, "total": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0, "base_buffer": 0.17847705106306044, "base_floor_met": false, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": -0.8215229489369396, "same_side_after_one_run": false, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": false, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "NOT_CERTIFIED; no supported bound on the documented starter/lineup/bullpen branches", "final_state": "NO_EDGE", "production_decision": "PASS", "promotion_allowed": false, "selection": "Over", "line": 6.5, "price": -122.0, "stressed_total_one_run_only": 5.67847705106306, "reason": "Numerical buffer/stress fails.", "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Numerical buffer/stress fails.", "Rasmussen (2026 2.67 ERA/172IP) last worked eight shutout innings/101 pitches Oct3; Griffin last worked2.2IP Oct7. Griffin current-year team splits are Washington3.06ERA/129.1IP and Cleveland5.19ERA/43.1IP, combined3.60ERA/172.2IP: splits and total are not added. A longer effective Rasmussen outing suppresses CLE scoring and is adverse to CLE+1.5 and Over6.5. Effective Griffin innings could also suppress the total, while short/ineffective Griffin innings harm CLE side but can help Over.", "Official preview projects CLE Halpin over Angel Martinez after ALDS performance, not injury. TB projected ViladeRF/MesaLF and Simpson bench against left-handed Griffin is a handedness/late-game chain; projected order is not a confirmed nine." ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.23148148148148096, "combined": 8.429012345679013, "spread_buffer": -1.268518518518519, "total_difference": 1.9290123456790127 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.23148148148148096, "combined": 8.429012345679013, "spread_buffer": -1.268518518518519, "total_difference": 1.9290123456790127 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.5, "base_buffer": 1.268518518518519, "base_floor_met": false, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.26851851851851904, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": false, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "NOT_CERTIFIED; no supported bound on the documented starter/lineup/bullpen branches", "final_state": "NO_EDGE", "production_decision": "PASS", "promotion_allowed": false, "selection": "Cleveland Guardians", "line": 1.5, "price": -157.0, "stressed_home_margin": 1.231481481481481, "reason": "Numerical buffer/stress fails.", "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Numerical buffer/stress fails.", "Rasmussen (2026 2.67 ERA/172IP) last worked eight shutout innings/101 pitches Oct3; Griffin last worked2.2IP Oct7. Griffin current-year team splits are Washington3.06ERA/129.1IP and Cleveland5.19ERA/43.1IP, combined3.60ERA/172.2IP: splits and total are not added. A longer effective Rasmussen outing suppresses CLE scoring and is adverse to CLE+1.5 and Over6.5. Effective Griffin innings could also suppress the total, while short/ineffective Griffin innings harm CLE side but can help Over.", "Official preview projects CLE Halpin over Angel Martinez after ALDS performance, not injury. TB projected ViladeRF/MesaLF and Simpson bench against left-handed Griffin is a handedness/late-game chain; projected order is not a confirmed nine.", "CLE preview records27 bullpen innings in postseason; Oct10 ET Smith27pitches/1.2IP and Gaddis24/1.1IP followed Oct8 workloads Smith31 and Gaddis16. Oct11 was an off day, so neither is assumed unavailable. TB had no appearances in the captured last3calendar-day window after the sweep; rested relief may sustain a low Cleveland score. CLE needing another long bridge threatens +1.5; weaker CLE relief can raise, not lower, the total." ] }, "total": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.5, "base_buffer": 1.9290123456790127, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.9290123456790127, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "NOT_CERTIFIED; no supported bound on the documented starter/lineup/bullpen branches", "final_state": "LEAN", "production_decision": "PASS", "promotion_allowed": false, "selection": "Over", "line": 6.5, "price": -122.0, "stressed_total_one_run_only": 7.429012345679013, "reason": "Numerical gates pass, but unresolved medium availability/lineup risk forbids Conservative ON promotion; combined event-specific robustness is also unverified.", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Numerical gates pass, but unresolved medium availability/lineup risk forbids Conservative ON promotion; combined event-specific robustness is also unverified.", "Rasmussen (2026 2.67 ERA/172IP) last worked eight shutout innings/101 pitches Oct3; Griffin last worked2.2IP Oct7. Griffin current-year team splits are Washington3.06ERA/129.1IP and Cleveland5.19ERA/43.1IP, combined3.60ERA/172.2IP: splits and total are not added. A longer effective Rasmussen outing suppresses CLE scoring and is adverse to CLE+1.5 and Over6.5. Effective Griffin innings could also suppress the total, while short/ineffective Griffin innings harm CLE side but can help Over.", "Official preview projects CLE Halpin over Angel Martinez after ALDS performance, not injury. TB projected ViladeRF/MesaLF and Simpson bench against left-handed Griffin is a handedness/late-game chain; projected order is not a confirmed nine." ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.23148148148148096, "combined": 8.429012345679013, "spread_buffer": -1.268518518518519, "total_difference": 1.9290123456790127 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.23148148148148096, "combined": 8.429012345679013, "spread_buffer": -1.268518518518519, "total_difference": 1.9290123456790127 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0, "base_buffer": 1.268518518518519, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.26851851851851904, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "NOT_CERTIFIED; no supported bound on the documented starter/lineup/bullpen branches", "final_state": "LEAN", "production_decision": "PASS", "promotion_allowed": false, "selection": "Cleveland Guardians", "line": 1.5, "price": -157.0, "stressed_home_margin": 1.231481481481481, "reason": "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility.", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility.", "Rasmussen (2026 2.67 ERA/172IP) last worked eight shutout innings/101 pitches Oct3; Griffin last worked2.2IP Oct7. Griffin current-year team splits are Washington3.06ERA/129.1IP and Cleveland5.19ERA/43.1IP, combined3.60ERA/172.2IP: splits and total are not added. A longer effective Rasmussen outing suppresses CLE scoring and is adverse to CLE+1.5 and Over6.5. Effective Griffin innings could also suppress the total, while short/ineffective Griffin innings harm CLE side but can help Over.", "Official preview projects CLE Halpin over Angel Martinez after ALDS performance, not injury. TB projected ViladeRF/MesaLF and Simpson bench against left-handed Griffin is a handedness/late-game chain; projected order is not a confirmed nine.", "CLE preview records27 bullpen innings in postseason; Oct10 ET Smith27pitches/1.2IP and Gaddis24/1.1IP followed Oct8 workloads Smith31 and Gaddis16. Oct11 was an off day, so neither is assumed unavailable. TB had no appearances in the captured last3calendar-day window after the sweep; rested relief may sustain a low Cleveland score. CLE needing another long bridge threatens +1.5; weaker CLE relief can raise, not lower, the total." ] }, "total": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0, "base_buffer": 1.9290123456790127, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.9290123456790127, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "NOT_CERTIFIED; no supported bound on the documented starter/lineup/bullpen branches", "final_state": "LEAN", "production_decision": "PASS", "promotion_allowed": false, "selection": "Over", "line": 6.5, "price": -122.0, "stressed_total_one_run_only": 7.429012345679013, "reason": "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility.", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility.", "Rasmussen (2026 2.67 ERA/172IP) last worked eight shutout innings/101 pitches Oct3; Griffin last worked2.2IP Oct7. Griffin current-year team splits are Washington3.06ERA/129.1IP and Cleveland5.19ERA/43.1IP, combined3.60ERA/172.2IP: splits and total are not added. A longer effective Rasmussen outing suppresses CLE scoring and is adverse to CLE+1.5 and Over6.5. Effective Griffin innings could also suppress the total, while short/ineffective Griffin innings harm CLE side but can help Over.", "Official preview projects CLE Halpin over Angel Martinez after ALDS performance, not injury. TB projected ViladeRF/MesaLF and Simpson bench against left-handed Griffin is a handedness/late-game chain; projected order is not a confirmed nine." ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401872994", "sport": "NFL", "identity": { "id": "401872994", "date": "2026-10-13T00:15Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NFL", "venue": { "id": "7065", "fullName": "SoFi Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Inglewood", "state": "CA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2", "away_name": "Buffalo Bills", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "14", "home_name": "Los Angeles Rams", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.344117647058823, 22.932352941176468 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.344117647058823, 22.932352941176468 ], "applied_delta": [ -3.0, -3.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Canonical human sensitivity: Palmer confirmed OUT but material-role classification conditional; Moore not assumed absent; Ferguson qualifying receiving-TE IR. Support-only Palmer zero and Moore isolated/joint endpoints retained. Statistical player effect unestimated.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "player": "Joshua Palmer", "team": "Buffalo Bills", "side": "away", "condition": "confirmed unavailable; deduction conditional on material receiving role", "replacement": "Skyler Bell", "isolated_score": [ 21.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 21.344117647058823, 22.932352941176468 ], "true_statistical_effect": null, "kind": "authorized availability sensitivity" }, { "player": "DJ Moore", "team": "Buffalo Bills", "side": "away", "condition": "conditional unavailable or materially limited; QUESTIONABLE not OUT", "replacement": "Skyler Bell", "isolated_score": [ 21.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 21.344117647058823, 22.932352941176468 ], "true_statistical_effect": null, "kind": "authorized availability sensitivity" }, { "player": "Terrance Ferguson", "team": "Los Angeles Rams", "side": "home", "condition": "confirmed unavailable: IR October2", "replacement": "Colby Parkinson", "isolated_score": [ 24.344117647058823, 22.932352941176468 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 21.344117647058823, 22.932352941176468 ], "true_statistical_effect": null, "kind": "authorized availability sensitivity" } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 17, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 28.294117647058822, 21.470588235294116 ], "current_rates": [ 31.75, 26.75 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 17, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 30.470588235294116, 20.352941176470587 ], "current_rates": [ 21.25, 20.75 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NFL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 12, "hits": 9, "accuracy": 0.75, "wilson95": [ 0.46769466506643426, 0.9110583316059453 ], "skips": 1, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 6.544046945701358, "mean_margin_error": 10.658682126696833, "mean_total_error": 9.65986990950226, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 11.105834793946649, 39.10583479394665 ], "home": [ 12.345198940536136, 40.345198940536136 ], "team_allowance": 14, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.127248517809328, 23.8443614633676 ], "conditional_score": [ 22.127248517809328, 23.8443614633676 ], "applied_delta": [ -3.0, -3.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Canonical human sensitivity: Palmer confirmed OUT but material-role classification conditional; Moore not assumed absent; Ferguson qualifying receiving-TE IR. Support-only Palmer zero and Moore isolated/joint endpoints retained. Statistical player effect unestimated.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "player": "Joshua Palmer", "team": "Buffalo Bills", "side": "away", "condition": "confirmed unavailable; deduction conditional on material receiving role", "replacement": "Skyler Bell", "isolated_score": [ 22.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 22.127248517809328, 23.8443614633676 ], "true_statistical_effect": null, "kind": "authorized availability sensitivity" }, { "player": "DJ Moore", "team": "Buffalo Bills", "side": "away", "condition": "conditional unavailable or materially limited; QUESTIONABLE not OUT", "replacement": "Skyler Bell", "isolated_score": [ 22.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 22.127248517809328, 23.8443614633676 ], "true_statistical_effect": null, "kind": "authorized availability sensitivity" }, { "player": "Terrance Ferguson", "team": "Los Angeles Rams", "side": "home", "condition": "confirmed unavailable: IR October2", "replacement": "Colby Parkinson", "isolated_score": [ 25.127248517809328, 23.8443614633676 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 22.127248517809328, 23.8443614633676 ], "true_statistical_effect": null, "kind": "authorized availability sensitivity" } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 569, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-12T00:20Z", "coefficient_sha256": "1ef59f4a3a97caff93f6d7c052d3622201fd0833ac2d6a2e1a8659bd79f0d65e" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NFL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 12, "hits": 11, "accuracy": 0.9166666666666666, "wilson95": [ 0.646120088858883, 0.9851349055950829 ], "skips": 1, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 5.958642508006298, "mean_margin_error": 9.878130488443638, "mean_total_error": 8.916718261975216, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 11.105834793946649, 39.10583479394665 ], "home": [ 12.345198940536136, 40.345198940536136 ], "team_allowance": 14, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.10583479394665, 23.345198940536136 ], "conditional_score": [ 22.10583479394665, 23.345198940536136 ], "applied_delta": [ -3.0, -3.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Canonical human sensitivity: Palmer confirmed OUT but material-role classification conditional; Moore not assumed absent; Ferguson qualifying receiving-TE IR. Support-only Palmer zero and Moore isolated/joint endpoints retained. Statistical player effect unestimated.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "player": "Joshua Palmer", "team": "Buffalo Bills", "side": "away", "condition": "confirmed unavailable; deduction conditional on material receiving role", "replacement": "Skyler Bell", "isolated_score": [ 22.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 22.10583479394665, 23.345198940536136 ], "true_statistical_effect": null, "kind": "authorized availability sensitivity" }, { "player": "DJ Moore", "team": "Buffalo Bills", "side": "away", "condition": "conditional unavailable or materially limited; QUESTIONABLE not OUT", "replacement": "Skyler Bell", "isolated_score": [ 22.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 22.10583479394665, 23.345198940536136 ], "true_statistical_effect": null, "kind": "authorized availability sensitivity" }, { "player": "Terrance Ferguson", "team": "Los Angeles Rams", "side": "home", "condition": "confirmed unavailable: IR October2", "replacement": "Colby Parkinson", "isolated_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 23.345198940536136 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 22.10583479394665, 23.345198940536136 ], "true_statistical_effect": null, "kind": "authorized availability sensitivity" } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 17, "points_for": 481.0, "points_against": 365.0, "off_drives": 177, "def_drives": 177, "off_drive_points": 469.0, "def_drive_points": 365.0, "pf": 28.294117647058822, "pa": 21.470588235294116, "off_dpg": 10.411764705882353, "def_dpg": 10.411764705882353, "off_ppd": 2.6497175141242937, "def_ppd": 2.062146892655367 }, "2026": { "games": 4, "points_for": 127.0, "points_against": 107.0, "off_drives": 43, "def_drives": 43, "off_drive_points": 127.0, "def_drive_points": 107.0, "pf": 31.75, "pa": 26.75, "off_dpg": 10.75, "def_dpg": 10.75, "off_ppd": 2.953488372093023, "def_ppd": 2.488372093023256 } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 17, "points_for": 518.0, "points_against": 346.0, "off_drives": 184, "def_drives": 182, "off_drive_points": 506.0, "def_drive_points": 322.0, "pf": 30.470588235294116, "pa": 20.352941176470587, "off_dpg": 10.823529411764707, "def_dpg": 10.705882352941176, "off_ppd": 2.75, "def_ppd": 1.7692307692307692 }, "2026": { "games": 4, "points_for": 85.0, "points_against": 83.0, "off_drives": 47, "def_drives": 44, "off_drive_points": 85.0, "def_drive_points": 77.0, "pf": 21.25, "pa": 20.75, "off_dpg": 11.75, "def_dpg": 11.0, "off_ppd": 1.8085106382978724, "def_ppd": 1.75 } } }, "terms": { "away": { "prior_matchup": 24.323529411764703, "current_matchup": 25.575218023255815, "expected_drives": 10.875, "score": 25.10583479394665 }, "home": { "prior_matchup": 25.970588235294116, "current_matchup": 24.169965363681346, "expected_drives": 11.25, "score": 26.345198940536136 } }, "caps": { "current_drive_rate": 0.625, "generic_four_to_six_game_cap": 0.5, "explicit_user_override": true, "authority": "MODEL-CALIBRATION-POLICY.json v2.1 nfl_october_4_audit_addendum.user_authorized_weight_override", "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0 } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NFL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 12, "hits": 8, "accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "wilson95": [ 0.39062208887279953, 0.8618799089087867 ], "skips": 1, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 7.064972891408893, "mean_margin_error": 11.270144363429361, "mean_total_error": 9.855531345530709, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 11.105834793946649, 39.10583479394665 ], "home": [ 12.345198940536136, 40.345198940536136 ], "team_allowance": 14, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.10583479394665, 23.345198940536136 ], "conditional_score": [ 22.10583479394665, 23.345198940536136 ], "applied_delta": [ -3.0, -3.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Canonical human sensitivity: Palmer confirmed OUT but material-role classification conditional; Moore not assumed absent; Ferguson qualifying receiving-TE IR. Support-only Palmer zero and Moore isolated/joint endpoints retained. Statistical player effect unestimated.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "player": "Joshua Palmer", "team": "Buffalo Bills", "side": "away", "condition": "confirmed unavailable; deduction conditional on material receiving role", "replacement": "Skyler Bell", "isolated_score": [ 22.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 22.10583479394665, 23.345198940536136 ], "true_statistical_effect": null, "kind": "authorized availability sensitivity" }, { "player": "DJ Moore", "team": "Buffalo Bills", "side": "away", "condition": "conditional unavailable or materially limited; QUESTIONABLE not OUT", "replacement": "Skyler Bell", "isolated_score": [ 22.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 22.10583479394665, 23.345198940536136 ], "true_statistical_effect": null, "kind": "authorized availability sensitivity" }, { "player": "Terrance Ferguson", "team": "Los Angeles Rams", "side": "home", "condition": "confirmed unavailable: IR October2", "replacement": "Colby Parkinson", "isolated_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 23.345198940536136 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 22.10583479394665, 23.345198940536136 ], "true_statistical_effect": null, "kind": "authorized availability sensitivity" } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 17, "points_for": 481.0, "points_against": 365.0, "off_drives": 177, "def_drives": 177, "off_drive_points": 469.0, "def_drive_points": 365.0, "pf": 28.294117647058822, "pa": 21.470588235294116, "off_dpg": 10.411764705882353, "def_dpg": 10.411764705882353, "off_ppd": 2.6497175141242937, "def_ppd": 2.062146892655367 }, "2026": { "games": 4, "points_for": 127.0, "points_against": 107.0, "off_drives": 43, "def_drives": 43, "off_drive_points": 127.0, "def_drive_points": 107.0, "pf": 31.75, "pa": 26.75, "off_dpg": 10.75, "def_dpg": 10.75, "off_ppd": 2.953488372093023, "def_ppd": 2.488372093023256 } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 17, "points_for": 518.0, "points_against": 346.0, "off_drives": 184, "def_drives": 182, "off_drive_points": 506.0, "def_drive_points": 322.0, "pf": 30.470588235294116, "pa": 20.352941176470587, "off_dpg": 10.823529411764707, "def_dpg": 10.705882352941176, "off_ppd": 2.75, "def_ppd": 1.7692307692307692 }, "2026": { "games": 4, "points_for": 85.0, "points_against": 83.0, "off_drives": 47, "def_drives": 44, "off_drive_points": 85.0, "def_drive_points": 77.0, "pf": 21.25, "pa": 20.75, "off_dpg": 11.75, "def_dpg": 11.0, "off_ppd": 1.8085106382978724, "def_ppd": 1.75 } } }, "terms": { "away": { "prior_matchup": 24.323529411764703, "current_matchup": 25.575218023255815, "expected_drives": 10.875, "score": 25.10583479394665 }, "home": { "prior_matchup": 25.970588235294116, "current_matchup": 24.169965363681346, "expected_drives": 11.25, "score": 26.345198940536136 } }, "caps": { "current_drive_rate": 0.625, "generic_four_to_six_game_cap": 0.5, "explicit_user_override": true, "authority": "MODEL-CALIBRATION-POLICY.json v2.1 nfl_october_4_audit_addendum.user_authorized_weight_override", "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0 } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NFL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 12, "hits": 8, "accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "wilson95": [ 0.39062208887279953, 0.8618799089087867 ], "skips": 1, "window": "2026-10-11", "mean_team_score_mae": 7.064972891408893, "mean_margin_error": 11.270144363429361, "mean_total_error": 9.855531345530709, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 11.105834793946649, 39.10583479394665 ], "home": [ 12.345198940536136, 40.345198940536136 ], "team_allowance": 14, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Buffalo nickel coverage availability", "detail": "Dee Alford first at nickel QUESTIONABLE, reserve Jordan Hancock on IR; Benford cleared at boundary does not establish nickel replacement. Rams Adams/Nacua and multiple TEs can stress interior coverage. Current nickel allocation unresolved; no invented opponent-point increment.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Buffalo interior defense rotation", "detail": "Ed Oliver OUT with Carter next at DL; Landon Jackson Q reduces other front depth. Run-fit/pressure changes can affect Rams drives, but current game rates already contain observed defense.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Rams pressure unit change", "detail": "Myles Garrett Sep17IR explicitly covers Bills. Young/Stewart rotation replaces edge work; Donald cleared for return after back issue. Ongoing Garrett loss partly represented in current baseline; Donald workload unknown. Separate from offensive -3.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Rams safety coverage availability", "detail": "Quentin Lake Q, Kinchens next in official safety depth; Watson cleared reduces boundary uncertainty but does not resolve Lake duties.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false }, { "severity": "HIGH_IF_NOT_ROBUST", "risk": "Covered receiver role and availability branches", "detail": "Palmer material-role/support-only branches, Moore available/absent branches and FergusonIR -3 must all be evaluated; Bell debut has no NFL regular-season evidence.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": "evaluate after prices" } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Buffalo Bills: Joshua Palmer confirmed unavailable; deduction conditional on material receiving role; 2024 LAC65targets/15games; 2025 BUF37/12; current9/4 with0starts and2TD. Official coach assigns Palmer plays to Bell. Treat planned receiving package as qualifying material-role sensitivity; because he is fourth WR with2.25targets/game, retain a support-only branch with no automatic -3. Exact routes unverified.; DJ Moore conditional unavailable or materially limited; QUESTIONABLE not OUT; Current starter with20targets/4games versus Chicago140/17 in2024 and85/17 in2025. Bell practiced Moore plays, but if Moore and Palmer are absent the same Bell/other receiver pool absorbs both. Preserve separate-player endpoint only assuming distinct displaced targets; passing-drive overlap is default. Los Angeles Rams: Terrance Ferguson confirmed unavailable: IR October2; Receiving TE started3/3games,12targets/7catches/63yards/1TD current, versus25targets/14games and3starts2025. Four targets/game exceeds current Parkinson2.0 and Allen1.75; Higbee4.75. Qualifies as primary receiving option in multi-TE attack despite IR moving him down vendor depth. Official current chart has Parkinson and Allen/Higbee; returning Parkinson, Higbee and Allen share lost receiving role. No exact share invented.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Buffalo Bills: 4 current games, offensive 2.953 points/drive against opponent defensive 1.750; 10.875 expected drives. Los Angeles Rams: 4 current games, offensive 1.809 points/drive against opponent defensive 2.488; 11.250 expected drives. Approved 37.5% prior / 62.5% current override; other volatile rates receive no arbitrary bonus.", "reviewer": "Parent reconciliation of independent evidence" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independent baseline arithmetic PASS across all four configurations; explicit isolated/joint -3 scenarios and zero unchanged-opponent deltas. Defense and protection risks retained.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "SoFi Stadium; listed 2026-10-13T00:15Z. Official Rams site confirms Monday Oct12 5:15PM PDT / 8:15PM EDT at SoFi. Bills last played Oct4 at home; Rams last played Oct4 at Philadelphia. Eight calendar days between starts; Bills cross three US time zones westward, Rams return home from Philadelphia. Actual travel itinerary not assumed. SoFi has covered field with open sides; exterior rain is not direct on-field rain.", "details": { "event_id": "401872994", "sport": "NFL", "away": "Buffalo Bills", "home": "Los Angeles Rams", "start_et": "2026-10-12T20:15:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-13T00:15Z", "venue": { "id": "7065", "fullName": "SoFi Stadium", "address": { "city": "Inglewood", "state": "CA", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": false }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Mon, October 12th at 8:15 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/12 - 8:15 PM EDT" }, "isTBDFlex": false }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/scoreboard?dates=20261012&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T05:33:49.599476+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://www.therams.com/news/know-before-you-go-rams-vs-buffalo-bills-at-sofi-stadium-week-5", "https://www.buffalobills.com/schedule/", "https://www.therams.com/schedule/", "https://www.sofistadium.com/plan-your-visit/a-z-guide", "https://www.sofistadium.com/stadium/" ], "context": [ "Official Rams site confirms Monday Oct12 5:15PM PDT / 8:15PM EDT at SoFi.", "Bills last played Oct4 at home; Rams last played Oct4 at Philadelphia. Eight calendar days between starts; Bills cross three US time zones westward, Rams return home from Philadelphia. Actual travel itinerary not assumed.", "SoFi has covered field with open sides; exterior rain is not direct on-field rain." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Buffalo Bills", "previous_game": { "id": "401872971", "date": "2026-10-04T17:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NFL", "venue": { "id": "11938", "fullName": "Highmark Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Orchard Park", "state": "NY", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "17", "away_name": "New England Patriots", "away_score": 29.0, "home": "2", "home_name": "Buffalo Bills", "home_score": 26.0, "day": 20730.708333333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 8, "interpretation": "Calendar gap from last retained completed game, not verified flight/rest hours. No automatic rest/travel score adjustment.", "limitation": null }, { "side": "home", "team": "Los Angeles Rams", "previous_game": { "id": "401872970", "date": "2026-10-04T17:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NFL", "venue": { "id": "3806", "fullName": "Lincoln Financial Field", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Philadelphia", "state": "PA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "14", "away_name": "Los Angeles Rams", "away_score": 24.0, "home": "21", "home_name": "Philadelphia Eagles", "home_score": 20.0, "day": 20730.708333333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 8, "interpretation": "Calendar gap from last retained completed game, not verified flight/rest hours. No automatic rest/travel score adjustment.", "limitation": null } ], "weather": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/LOX/151,41/forecast/hourly", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T05:35:09.395083+00:00", "updateTime": "2026-10-11T20:41:44+00:00", "periods": [ { "number": 21, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-12T17:00:00-07:00", "endTime": "2026-10-12T18:00:00-07:00", "isDaytime": true, "temperature": 64, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 18 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 12.777777777777779 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 72 }, "windSpeed": "10 mph", "windDirection": "WSW", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/rain_showers,20?size=small", "shortForecast": "Slight Chance Rain Showers", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 22, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-12T18:00:00-07:00", "endTime": "2026-10-12T19:00:00-07:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 62, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 18 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 12.222222222222221 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 75 }, "windSpeed": "10 mph", "windDirection": "WSW", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/rain_showers,20?size=small", "shortForecast": "Slight Chance Rain Showers", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 23, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-12T19:00:00-07:00", "endTime": "2026-10-12T20:00:00-07:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 62, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 18 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 12.777777777777779 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 78 }, "windSpeed": "10 mph", "windDirection": "WSW", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/rain_showers,20?size=small", "shortForecast": "Slight Chance Rain Showers", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 24, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-12T20:00:00-07:00", "endTime": "2026-10-12T21:00:00-07:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 62, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 18 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 13.333333333333334 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 81 }, "windSpeed": "5 mph", "windDirection": "WSW", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/rain_showers,20?size=small", "shortForecast": "Slight Chance Rain Showers", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 25, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-12T21:00:00-07:00", "endTime": "2026-10-12T22:00:00-07:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 62, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 18 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 13.88888888888889 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 84 }, "windSpeed": "5 mph", "windDirection": "WSW", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/rain_showers,20?size=small", "shortForecast": "Slight Chance Rain Showers", "detailedForecast": "" } ], "interpretation": "Exterior hourly NWS forecast including kickoff-overlapping hour. SoFi roof limits direct rain; open sides can admit ambient conditions. 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Current nickel allocation unresolved; no invented opponent-point increment.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Buffalo interior defense rotation", "detail": "Ed Oliver OUT with Carter next at DL; Landon Jackson Q reduces other front depth. Run-fit/pressure changes can affect Rams drives, but current game rates already contain observed defense.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Rams pressure unit change", "detail": "Myles Garrett Sep17IR explicitly covers Bills. Young/Stewart rotation replaces edge work; Donald cleared for return after back issue. Ongoing Garrett loss partly represented in current baseline; Donald workload unknown. Separate from offensive -3.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Rams safety coverage availability", "detail": "Quentin Lake Q, Kinchens next in official safety depth; Watson cleared reduces boundary uncertainty but does not resolve Lake duties.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false }, { "severity": "HIGH_IF_NOT_ROBUST", "risk": "Covered receiver role and availability branches", "detail": "Palmer material-role/support-only branches, Moore available/absent branches and FergusonIR -3 must all be evaluated; Bell debut has no NFL regular-season evidence.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": "evaluate after prices" } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "sources": [ "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/LOX/151,41/forecast/hourly", "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/rain_showers,20?size=small", "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/rain_showers,20?size=small", 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"official_starts_by_year": { "2024": 7, "2025": 8, "2026": 0 }, "official_career_source": "https://www.buffalobills.com/team/players-roster/joshua-palmer/", "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." }, { "name": "Tyrell Shavers", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4241476/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "receptions": "1", "receivingTargets": "1", "receivingYards": "69", "yardsPerReception": "69.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "69", "receivingFirstDowns": "1", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "15", "receivingTargets": "23", "receivingYards": "245", "yardsPerReception": "16.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "43", "receivingFirstDowns": "10", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "receptions": "1", "receivingTargets": "1", "receivingYards": "69", "yardsPerReception": "69.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "69", "receivingFirstDowns": "1", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 0.3333333333333333 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "15", "receivingTargets": "23", "receivingYards": "245", "yardsPerReception": "16.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "43", "receivingFirstDowns": "10", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 1.3529411764705883 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } } ], "official_starts_by_year": null, "official_career_source": null, "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/2/depthcharts" }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Khalil Shakir", "Greg Dortch" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Khalil Shakir", "status": "No vendor injury designation; cross-checked official final report" }, { "player": "Greg Dortch", "status": "No vendor injury designation; cross-checked official final report" } ], "comparisons": [ { "name": "Khalil Shakir", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4373678/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "receptions": "76", "receivingTargets": "100", "receivingYards": "821", "yardsPerReception": "10.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "longReception": "52", "receivingFirstDowns": "35", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "receptions": "72", "receivingTargets": "95", "receivingYards": "719", "yardsPerReception": "10.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "longReception": "54", "receivingFirstDowns": "29", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "15", "receivingTargets": "23", "receivingYards": "176", "yardsPerReception": "11.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "51", "receivingFirstDowns": "7", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "4", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "2.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "2", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "5", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "5.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "5", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": 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"teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } } ], "official_starts_by_year": null, "official_career_source": null, "college_seasons_separate": null, 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Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." }, { "name": "Greg Dortch", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4037235/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "37", "receivingTargets": "50", "receivingYards": "342", "yardsPerReception": "9.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "39", "receivingFirstDowns": "16", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "receptions": "29", "receivingTargets": "33", "receivingYards": "206", "yardsPerReception": "7.1", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "39", "receivingFirstDowns": "10", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "5", "rushingYards": "31", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "6.2", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "8", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "rushingAttempts": "7", "rushingYards": "15", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "2.1", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "9", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", 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"3", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "4", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "24" } } ] } ], "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "37", "receivingTargets": "50", "receivingYards": "342", "yardsPerReception": "9.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "39", "receivingFirstDowns": "16", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 2.9411764705882355 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "receptions": "29", "receivingTargets": "33", "receivingYards": "206", "yardsPerReception": "7.1", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "39", "receivingFirstDowns": "10", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 2.75 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "5", "rushingYards": "31", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "6.2", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "8", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "rushing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "rushingAttempts": 0.29411764705882354 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "rushingAttempts": "7", "rushingYards": "15", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "2.1", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "9", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "rushing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "rushingAttempts": 0.5833333333333334 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "10.2" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } } ], "official_starts_by_year": null, "official_career_source": null, "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/2/depthcharts" }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Keon Coleman", "Skyler Bell" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Keon Coleman", "status": "No vendor injury designation; cross-checked official final report" }, { "player": "Skyler Bell", "status": "No vendor injury designation; cross-checked official final report" } ], "comparisons": [ { "name": "Keon Coleman", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4635008/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "receptions": "29", "receivingTargets": "57", "receivingYards": "556", "yardsPerReception": "19.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "longReception": "64", "receivingFirstDowns": "22", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "receptions": "38", "receivingTargets": "59", "receivingYards": "404", "yardsPerReception": "10.6", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "longReception": "37", "receivingFirstDowns": "25", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "14", "receivingTargets": "16", "receivingYards": "217", "yardsPerReception": "15.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "37", "receivingFirstDowns": "10", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "9", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "9.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "9", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "4", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "26" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "4", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "26" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "receptions": "29", "receivingTargets": "57", "receivingYards": "556", "yardsPerReception": "19.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "longReception": "64", "receivingFirstDowns": "22", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 4.384615384615385 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "receptions": "38", "receivingTargets": "59", "receivingYards": "404", "yardsPerReception": "10.6", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "longReception": "37", "receivingFirstDowns": "25", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 4.538461538461538 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "14", "receivingTargets": "16", "receivingYards": "217", "yardsPerReception": "15.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "37", "receivingFirstDowns": "10", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 4.0 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "9", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "9.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "9", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "rushing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "rushingAttempts": 0.07692307692307693 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } } ], "official_starts_by_year": null, "official_career_source": null, "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." }, { "name": "Skyler Bell", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4683153/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [], "opportunity_comparison": [], "official_starts_by_year": { "2026": 0 }, "official_career_source": "https://www.buffalobills.com/team/players-roster/skyler-bell/", "college_seasons_separate": { "id": "4683153", "name": "Skyler Bell", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4683153/stats", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T05:34:46.299855+00:00", "league": "NCAA", "categories": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "41", "teamSlug": "uconn-huskies", "stats": { "receptions": "50", "receivingYards": "860", "yardsPerReception": "17.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "5", "longReception": "70" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "41", "teamSlug": "uconn-huskies", "stats": { "receptions": "101", "receivingYards": "1,278", "yardsPerReception": "12.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "13", "longReception": "80" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "41", "teamSlug": "uconn-huskies", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "0", "rushingYards": "4", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "0.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "4" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "41", "teamSlug": "uconn-huskies", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "-2", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "-1.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "41", "teamSlug": "uconn-huskies", "stats": { "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "5", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "5", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "30" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "41", "teamSlug": "uconn-huskies", "stats": { "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "13", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "13", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "78" } } ] } ], "conversion": "NONE: never pooled with NFL or converted into NFL points" }, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/2/depthcharts" }, { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Josh Allen", "Kyle Allen" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Josh Allen", "status": "No vendor injury designation; cross-checked official final report" }, { "player": "Kyle Allen", "status": "No vendor injury designation; cross-checked official final report" } ], "comparisons": [ { "name": "Josh Allen", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/3918298/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "307", "passingAttempts": "483", "completionPct": "63.6", "passingYards": "3,731", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "7.7", "passingTouchdowns": "28", "interceptions": "6", "longPassing": "64", "sacks": "14", "QBRating": "101.4", "adjQBR": "74.8" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "319", "passingAttempts": "460", "completionPct": "69.3", "passingYards": "3,668", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "8.0", "passingTouchdowns": "25", "interceptions": "10", "longPassing": "54", "sacks": "40", "QBRating": "102.2", "adjQBR": "65.4" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "79", "passingAttempts": "119", "completionPct": "66.4", "passingYards": "1,039", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "8.7", "passingTouchdowns": "6", "interceptions": "3", "longPassing": "51", "sacks": "9", "QBRating": "100.1", "adjQBR": "71.8" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "102", "rushingYards": "531", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "5.2", "rushingTouchdowns": "12", "longRushing": "30", "rushingFirstDowns": "52", "rushingFumbles": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "112", "rushingYards": "579", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "5.2", "rushingTouchdowns": "14", "longRushing": "40", "rushingFirstDowns": "46", "rushingFumbles": "6", "rushingFumblesLost": "2" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "rushingAttempts": "33", "rushingYards": "118", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.6", "rushingTouchdowns": "7", "longRushing": "21", "rushingFirstDowns": "15", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "0", "receivingTargets": "0", "receivingYards": "7", "yardsPerReception": "0.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "7", "receivingFirstDowns": "1", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "1", "receivingTargets": "1", "receivingYards": "1", "yardsPerReception": "1.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "1", "receivingFirstDowns": "0", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "28", "rushingTouchdowns": "12", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "13", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "78" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "QB", "stats": { 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"opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 29.75 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "102", "rushingYards": "531", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "5.2", "rushingTouchdowns": "12", "longRushing": "30", "rushingFirstDowns": "52", "rushingFumbles": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "rushing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "rushingAttempts": 6.0 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "112", "rushingYards": "579", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "5.2", "rushingTouchdowns": "14", "longRushing": "40", "rushingFirstDowns": "46", "rushingFumbles": "6", "rushingFumblesLost": "2" }, "category": "rushing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "rushingAttempts": 6.588235294117647 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "rushingAttempts": "33", "rushingYards": "118", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.6", "rushingTouchdowns": "7", "longRushing": "21", "rushingFirstDowns": "15", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "rushing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "rushingAttempts": 8.25 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "0", "receivingTargets": "0", "receivingYards": "7", "yardsPerReception": "0.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "7", "receivingFirstDowns": "1", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "1", "receivingTargets": "1", "receivingYards": "1", "yardsPerReception": "1.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "1", "receivingFirstDowns": "0", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 0.25 } } ], "official_starts_by_year": null, "official_career_source": null, "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." }, { "name": "Kyle Allen", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/3115293/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "23", "teamSlug": "pittsburgh-steelers", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "1", "completions": "1", "passingAttempts": "1", "completionPct": "100.0", "passingYards": "19", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "19.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "19", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "118.8", "adjQBR": "99.3" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "8", "teamSlug": "detroit-lions", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "2", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "4.8" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "8", "teamSlug": "detroit-lions", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "rushingAttempts": "3", "rushingYards": "-3", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "-1.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "-1", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [] } ], "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "23", "teamSlug": "pittsburgh-steelers", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "1", "completions": "1", "passingAttempts": "1", "completionPct": "100.0", "passingYards": "19", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "19.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "19", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "118.8", "adjQBR": "99.3" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 1.0 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "8", "teamSlug": "detroit-lions", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "2", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "4.8" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.6666666666666666 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "8", "teamSlug": "detroit-lions", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "rushingAttempts": "3", "rushingYards": "-3", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "-1.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "-1", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "rushing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "rushingAttempts": 1.0 } } ], "official_starts_by_year": null, "official_career_source": null, "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/2/depthcharts" }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Dalton Kincaid", "Dawson Knox", "Jackson Hawes", "Keleki Latu" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Dalton Kincaid", "status": "No vendor injury designation; cross-checked official final report" }, { "player": "Dawson Knox", "status": "No vendor injury designation; cross-checked official final report" }, { "player": "Jackson Hawes", "status": "No vendor injury designation; cross-checked official final report" }, { "player": "Keleki Latu", "status": "No vendor injury designation; cross-checked official final report" } ], "comparisons": [ { "name": "Dalton Kincaid", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4385690/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "receptions": "44", "receivingTargets": "75", "receivingYards": "448", "yardsPerReception": "10.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "29", "receivingFirstDowns": "23", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "receptions": "39", "receivingTargets": "49", "receivingYards": "571", "yardsPerReception": "14.6", "receivingTouchdowns": "5", "longReception": "47", "receivingFirstDowns": "27", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "15", "receivingTargets": "19", "receivingYards": "270", "yardsPerReception": "18.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "40", "receivingFirstDowns": "10", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "2", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "12" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "5", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "5", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "30" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "receptions": "44", "receivingTargets": "75", "receivingYards": "448", "yardsPerReception": "10.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "29", "receivingFirstDowns": "23", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 5.769230769230769 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "receptions": "39", "receivingTargets": "49", "receivingYards": "571", "yardsPerReception": "14.6", "receivingTouchdowns": "5", "longReception": "47", "receivingFirstDowns": "27", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 4.083333333333333 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "15", "receivingTargets": "19", "receivingYards": "270", "yardsPerReception": "18.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "40", "receivingFirstDowns": "10", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 4.75 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } } ], "official_starts_by_year": null, "official_career_source": null, "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." }, { "name": "Dawson Knox", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/3930086/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "receptions": "22", "receivingTargets": "33", "receivingYards": "311", "yardsPerReception": "14.1", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "39", "receivingFirstDowns": "12", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "36", "receivingTargets": "49", "receivingYards": "417", "yardsPerReception": "11.6", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "longReception": "32", "receivingFirstDowns": "23", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "6", "receivingTargets": "6", "receivingYards": "30", "yardsPerReception": "5.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "8", "receivingFirstDowns": "2", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "0", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "0.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "0", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "0.0" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "4", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "26" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "receptions": "22", "receivingTargets": "33", "receivingYards": "311", "yardsPerReception": "14.1", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "39", "receivingFirstDowns": "12", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 2.0625 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "36", "receivingTargets": "49", "receivingYards": "417", "yardsPerReception": "11.6", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "longReception": "32", "receivingFirstDowns": "23", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 2.8823529411764706 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "6", "receivingTargets": "6", "receivingYards": "30", "yardsPerReception": "5.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "8", "receivingFirstDowns": "2", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 1.5 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "0", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "0.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "0", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "rushing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "rushingAttempts": 0.25 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "0.0" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } } ], "official_starts_by_year": null, "official_career_source": null, "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." }, { "name": "Jackson Hawes", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4573699/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "16", "receivingTargets": "19", "receivingYards": "187", "yardsPerReception": "11.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "29", "receivingFirstDowns": "13", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "0", "receivingTargets": "1", "receivingYards": "0", "yardsPerReception": "0.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "0", "receivingFirstDowns": "0", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "3", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "18" } } ] } ], "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "16", "receivingTargets": "19", "receivingYards": "187", "yardsPerReception": "11.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "29", "receivingFirstDowns": "13", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 1.1176470588235294 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "0", "receivingTargets": "1", "receivingYards": "0", "yardsPerReception": "0.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "0", "receivingFirstDowns": "0", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 0.25 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } } ], "official_starts_by_year": null, "official_career_source": null, "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." }, { "name": "Keleki Latu", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4688552/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "receptions": "4", "receivingTargets": "4", "receivingYards": "35", "yardsPerReception": "8.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "14", "receivingFirstDowns": "3", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] } ], "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "receptions": "4", "receivingTargets": "4", "receivingYards": "35", "yardsPerReception": "8.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "14", "receivingFirstDowns": "3", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 0.8 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } } ], "official_starts_by_year": null, "official_career_source": null, "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/2/depthcharts" }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "James Cook III", "Ty Johnson", "Ray Davis" ], "availability": [ { "player": "James Cook III", "status": "No vendor injury designation; cross-checked official final report" }, { "player": "Ty Johnson", "status": "No vendor injury designation; cross-checked official final report" }, { "player": "Ray Davis", "status": "No vendor injury designation; cross-checked official final report" } ], "comparisons": [ { "name": "James Cook III", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4379399/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "rushingAttempts": "207", "rushingYards": "1,009", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.9", "rushingTouchdowns": "16", "longRushing": "65", "rushingFirstDowns": "48", "rushingFumbles": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "309", "rushingYards": "1,621", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "5.2", "rushingTouchdowns": "12", "longRushing": "64", "rushingFirstDowns": "68", "rushingFumbles": "6", "rushingFumblesLost": "3" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "rushingAttempts": "70", "rushingYards": "421", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "6.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "3", "longRushing": "35", "rushingFirstDowns": "22", "rushingFumbles": "2", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "receptions": "32", "receivingTargets": "38", "receivingYards": "258", "yardsPerReception": "8.1", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "28", "receivingFirstDowns": "14", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "33", "receivingTargets": "40", "receivingYards": "291", "yardsPerReception": "8.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "51", "receivingFirstDowns": "11", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "6", "receivingTargets": "11", "receivingYards": "24", "yardsPerReception": "4.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "6", "receivingFirstDowns": "2", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "2.0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": 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"0", "totalPoints": "18" } } ] } ], "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "rushingAttempts": "207", "rushingYards": "1,009", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.9", "rushingTouchdowns": "16", "longRushing": "65", "rushingFirstDowns": "48", "rushingFumbles": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "rushing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "rushingAttempts": 12.9375 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "309", "rushingYards": "1,621", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "5.2", "rushingTouchdowns": "12", "longRushing": "64", "rushingFirstDowns": "68", "rushingFumbles": "6", "rushingFumblesLost": "3" }, "category": "rushing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "rushingAttempts": 18.176470588235293 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "rushingAttempts": "70", "rushingYards": "421", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "6.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "3", "longRushing": "35", "rushingFirstDowns": "22", "rushingFumbles": "2", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" }, "category": "rushing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "rushingAttempts": 17.5 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "receptions": "32", "receivingTargets": "38", "receivingYards": "258", "yardsPerReception": "8.1", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "28", "receivingFirstDowns": "14", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 2.375 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "33", "receivingTargets": "40", "receivingYards": "291", "yardsPerReception": "8.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "51", "receivingFirstDowns": "11", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 2.3529411764705883 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "6", "receivingTargets": "11", "receivingYards": "24", "yardsPerReception": "4.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "6", "receivingFirstDowns": "2", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 2.75 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "2.0" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } } ], "official_starts_by_year": null, "official_career_source": null, "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." }, { "name": "Ty Johnson", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/3915411/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "41", "rushingYards": "213", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "5.2", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "19", "rushingFirstDowns": "13", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "50", "rushingYards": "200", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "3", "longRushing": "23", "rushingFirstDowns": "13", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "3", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "3", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "18", "receivingTargets": "25", "receivingYards": "284", "yardsPerReception": "15.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "41", "receivingFirstDowns": "14", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "24", "receivingTargets": "33", "receivingYards": "263", "yardsPerReception": "11.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "52", "receivingFirstDowns": "13", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "receptions": "6", "receivingTargets": "6", "receivingYards": "59", "yardsPerReception": "9.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "29", "receivingFirstDowns": "4", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "100.0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "4", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "24" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "3", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "5", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "30" } } ] } ], "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "41", "rushingYards": "213", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "5.2", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "19", "rushingFirstDowns": "13", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "rushing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "rushingAttempts": 2.411764705882353 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "50", "rushingYards": "200", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "3", "longRushing": "23", "rushingFirstDowns": "13", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "rushing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "rushingAttempts": 2.9411764705882355 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "3", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "3", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "rushing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "rushingAttempts": 0.5 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "18", "receivingTargets": "25", "receivingYards": "284", "yardsPerReception": "15.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "41", "receivingFirstDowns": "14", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 1.4705882352941178 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "24", "receivingTargets": "33", "receivingYards": "263", "yardsPerReception": "11.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "52", "receivingFirstDowns": "13", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 1.9411764705882353 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "receptions": "6", "receivingTargets": "6", "receivingYards": "59", "yardsPerReception": "9.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "29", "receivingFirstDowns": "4", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 3.0 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "100.0" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } } ], "official_starts_by_year": null, "official_career_source": null, "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." }, { "name": "Ray Davis", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4429501/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "113", "rushingYards": "442", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.9", "rushingTouchdowns": "3", "longRushing": "23", "rushingFirstDowns": "25", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "58", "rushingYards": "275", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.7", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "23", "rushingFirstDowns": "15", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "6", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "3", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "17", "receivingTargets": "19", "receivingYards": "189", "yardsPerReception": "11.1", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "63", "receivingFirstDowns": "8", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "10", "receivingTargets": "13", "receivingYards": "86", "yardsPerReception": "8.6", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "21", "receivingFirstDowns": "7", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "1", "receivingTargets": "1", "receivingYards": "4", "yardsPerReception": "4.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "4", "receivingFirstDowns": "0", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "3", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "6", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "36" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "2", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "12" } } ] } ], "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "113", "rushingYards": "442", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.9", "rushingTouchdowns": "3", "longRushing": "23", "rushingFirstDowns": "25", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "rushing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "rushingAttempts": 6.647058823529412 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "58", "rushingYards": "275", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.7", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "23", "rushingFirstDowns": "15", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "rushing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "rushingAttempts": 3.411764705882353 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "6", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "3", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "rushing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "rushingAttempts": 0.5 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "17", "receivingTargets": "19", "receivingYards": "189", "yardsPerReception": "11.1", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "63", "receivingFirstDowns": "8", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 1.1176470588235294 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "10", "receivingTargets": "13", "receivingYards": "86", "yardsPerReception": "8.6", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "21", "receivingFirstDowns": "7", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 0.7647058823529411 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "1", "receivingTargets": "1", "receivingYards": "4", "yardsPerReception": "4.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "4", "receivingFirstDowns": "0", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 0.25 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } } ], "official_starts_by_year": null, "official_career_source": null, "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/2/depthcharts" } ], "availability_inventory": [ { "player": "DJ Moore", "position": "WR", "injuries": [ { "date": "2026-10-10T18:05Z", "status": "Questionable", "type": { "id": "2", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_QUESTIONABLE", "description": "questionable", "abbreviation": "Q" }, "details": null } ] }, { "player": "Joshua Palmer", "position": "WR", "injuries": [ { "date": "2026-10-10T18:00Z", "status": "Out", "type": { "id": "4", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_OUT", "description": "out", "abbreviation": "O" }, "details": null } ] }, { "player": "Tyrell Shavers", "position": "WR", "injuries": [ { "date": "2026-09-08T20:42Z", "status": "Out", "type": { "id": "4", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_OUT", "description": "out", "abbreviation": "O" }, "details": null } ] } ], "isolated_scenarios": [ { "player": "Joshua Palmer", "position": "WR", "state": "confirmed unavailable; deduction conditional on material receiving role", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "Skyler Bell", "replacement_pool": [ "Skyler Bell", "Khalil Shakir", "Keon Coleman", "Greg Dortch" ], "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "2024 LAC65targets/15games; 2025 BUF37/12; current9/4 with0starts and2TD. Official coach assigns Palmer plays to Bell. Treat planned receiving package as qualifying material-role sensitivity; because he is fourth WR with2.25targets/game, retain a support-only branch with no automatic -3. Exact routes unverified.", "familiarity": "Bell practices with Josh Allen and took Moore plays earlier this week; official Oct10 report confirms first NFL game. College2024/25 is separate. Palmer played Buffalo2025; Shakir/Coleman are returning Allen targets. No invented NFL conversion.", "comparison": { "incumbent": { "name": "Joshua Palmer", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4242433/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "24", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-chargers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "receptions": "39", "receivingTargets": "65", "receivingYards": "584", "yardsPerReception": "15.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "45", "receivingFirstDowns": "28", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "receptions": "22", "receivingTargets": "37", "receivingYards": "303", "yardsPerReception": "13.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "45", "receivingFirstDowns": "13", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "3", "receivingTargets": "9", "receivingYards": "80", "yardsPerReception": "26.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "43", "receivingFirstDowns": "2", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "24", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-chargers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "24", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-chargers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "2", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "10" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "2", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "12" } } ] } ], "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "24", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-chargers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "receptions": "39", "receivingTargets": "65", "receivingYards": "584", "yardsPerReception": "15.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "45", "receivingFirstDowns": "28", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": 7, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 4.333333333333333 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "receptions": "22", "receivingTargets": "37", "receivingYards": "303", "yardsPerReception": "13.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "45", "receivingFirstDowns": "13", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": 8, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 3.0833333333333335 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "3", "receivingTargets": "9", "receivingYards": "80", "yardsPerReception": "26.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "43", "receivingFirstDowns": "2", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": 0, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 2.25 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "24", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-chargers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": 7, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": 8, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": 0, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } } ], "official_starts_by_year": { "2024": 7, "2025": 8, "2026": 0 }, "official_career_source": "https://www.buffalobills.com/team/players-roster/joshua-palmer/", "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." }, "replacement": { "name": "Skyler Bell", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4683153/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [], "opportunity_comparison": [], "official_starts_by_year": { "2026": 0 }, "official_career_source": "https://www.buffalobills.com/team/players-roster/skyler-bell/", "college_seasons_separate": { "id": "4683153", "name": "Skyler Bell", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4683153/stats", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T05:34:46.299855+00:00", "league": "NCAA", "categories": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "41", "teamSlug": "uconn-huskies", "stats": { "receptions": "50", "receivingYards": "860", "yardsPerReception": "17.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "5", "longReception": "70" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "41", "teamSlug": "uconn-huskies", "stats": { "receptions": "101", "receivingYards": "1,278", "yardsPerReception": "12.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "13", "longReception": "80" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "41", "teamSlug": "uconn-huskies", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "0", "rushingYards": "4", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "0.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "4" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "41", "teamSlug": "uconn-huskies", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "-2", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "-1.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "41", "teamSlug": "uconn-huskies", "stats": { "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "5", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "5", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "30" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "41", "teamSlug": "uconn-huskies", "stats": { "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "13", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "13", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "78" } } ] } ], "conversion": "NONE: never pooled with NFL or converted into NFL points" }, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." }, "pool": [ { "name": "Skyler Bell", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4683153/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [], "opportunity_comparison": [], "official_starts_by_year": { "2026": 0 }, "official_career_source": "https://www.buffalobills.com/team/players-roster/skyler-bell/", "college_seasons_separate": { "id": "4683153", "name": "Skyler Bell", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4683153/stats", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T05:34:46.299855+00:00", "league": "NCAA", "categories": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "41", "teamSlug": "uconn-huskies", "stats": { "receptions": "50", "receivingYards": "860", "yardsPerReception": "17.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "5", "longReception": "70" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "41", "teamSlug": "uconn-huskies", "stats": { "receptions": "101", "receivingYards": "1,278", "yardsPerReception": "12.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "13", "longReception": "80" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "41", "teamSlug": "uconn-huskies", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "0", "rushingYards": "4", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "0.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "4" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "41", "teamSlug": "uconn-huskies", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "-2", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "-1.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "41", "teamSlug": "uconn-huskies", "stats": { "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "5", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "5", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "30" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "41", "teamSlug": "uconn-huskies", "stats": { "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "13", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "13", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "78" } } ] } ], "conversion": "NONE: never pooled with NFL or converted into NFL points" }, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." }, { "name": "Khalil Shakir", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4373678/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "receptions": "76", "receivingTargets": "100", "receivingYards": "821", "yardsPerReception": "10.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "longReception": "52", "receivingFirstDowns": "35", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "receptions": "72", "receivingTargets": "95", "receivingYards": "719", "yardsPerReception": "10.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "longReception": "54", "receivingFirstDowns": "29", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "15", "receivingTargets": "23", "receivingYards": "176", "yardsPerReception": "11.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "51", "receivingFirstDowns": "7", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "4", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "2.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "2", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "5", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "5.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "5", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "4", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "24" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "4", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "24" } } ] } ], "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "receptions": "76", "receivingTargets": "100", "receivingYards": "821", "yardsPerReception": "10.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "longReception": "52", "receivingFirstDowns": "35", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 6.666666666666667 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "receptions": "72", "receivingTargets": "95", "receivingYards": "719", "yardsPerReception": "10.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "longReception": "54", "receivingFirstDowns": "29", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 5.9375 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "15", "receivingTargets": "23", "receivingYards": "176", "yardsPerReception": "11.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "51", "receivingFirstDowns": "7", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 5.75 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "4", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "2.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "2", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "rushing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "rushingAttempts": 0.13333333333333333 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "5", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "5.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "5", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "rushing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "rushingAttempts": 0.0625 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } } ], "official_starts_by_year": null, "official_career_source": null, "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." }, { "name": "Keon Coleman", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4635008/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "receptions": "29", "receivingTargets": "57", "receivingYards": "556", "yardsPerReception": "19.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "longReception": "64", "receivingFirstDowns": "22", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "receptions": "38", "receivingTargets": "59", "receivingYards": "404", "yardsPerReception": "10.6", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "longReception": "37", "receivingFirstDowns": "25", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "14", "receivingTargets": "16", "receivingYards": "217", "yardsPerReception": "15.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "37", "receivingFirstDowns": "10", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "9", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "9.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "9", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "4", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "26" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "4", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "26" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "receptions": "29", "receivingTargets": "57", "receivingYards": "556", "yardsPerReception": "19.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "longReception": "64", "receivingFirstDowns": "22", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 4.384615384615385 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "receptions": "38", "receivingTargets": "59", "receivingYards": "404", "yardsPerReception": "10.6", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "longReception": "37", "receivingFirstDowns": "25", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 4.538461538461538 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "14", "receivingTargets": "16", "receivingYards": "217", "yardsPerReception": "15.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "37", "receivingFirstDowns": "10", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 4.0 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "9", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "9.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "9", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "rushing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "rushingAttempts": 0.07692307692307693 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } } ], "official_starts_by_year": null, "official_career_source": null, "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." }, { "name": "Greg Dortch", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4037235/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "37", "receivingTargets": "50", "receivingYards": "342", "yardsPerReception": "9.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "39", "receivingFirstDowns": "16", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "receptions": "29", "receivingTargets": "33", "receivingYards": "206", "yardsPerReception": "7.1", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "39", "receivingFirstDowns": "10", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "5", "rushingYards": "31", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "6.2", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "8", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "rushingAttempts": "7", "rushingYards": "15", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "2.1", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "9", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "10.2" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "3", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "18" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "4", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "24" } } ] } ], "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "37", "receivingTargets": "50", "receivingYards": "342", "yardsPerReception": "9.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "39", "receivingFirstDowns": "16", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 2.9411764705882355 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "receptions": "29", "receivingTargets": "33", "receivingYards": "206", "yardsPerReception": "7.1", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "39", "receivingFirstDowns": "10", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 2.75 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "5", "rushingYards": "31", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "6.2", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "8", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "rushing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "rushingAttempts": 0.29411764705882354 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "rushingAttempts": "7", "rushingYards": "15", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "2.1", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "9", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "rushing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "rushingAttempts": 0.5833333333333334 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "10.2" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } } ], "official_starts_by_year": null, "official_career_source": null, "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." } ] }, "sources": [ "https://www.buffalobills.com/news/i-m-excited-wr-skyler-bell-is-ready-for-his-nfl-debut", "https://www.buffalobills.com/team/players-roster/joshua-palmer/", "https://www.buffalobills.com/team/depth-chart", "https://www.therams.com/news/rams-injury-report-week-5-2026-vs-bills-aaron-donald-colby-parkinson-and-jaylen-watson-good-to-go-for-monday-night-football" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "base": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "adjusted": [ 21.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "home_margin": 4.588235294117645, "total": 47.27647058823529, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "base": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 22.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "adjusted": [ 22.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "home_margin": 4.717112945558274, "total": 48.971609981176925, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "base": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 22.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "adjusted": [ 22.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "home_margin": 4.239364146589487, "total": 48.451033734482785, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "base": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 22.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "adjusted": [ 22.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "home_margin": 4.239364146589487, "total": 48.451033734482785, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" } }, "baseline_overlap": "Current team rates already include some absences. No separate estimated effect exists; -3 is the additional user human assumption, never the entire measured difference. Opponent points unchanged without a supported conversion." }, { "player": "DJ Moore", "position": "WR", "state": "conditional unavailable or materially limited; QUESTIONABLE not OUT", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "Skyler Bell", "replacement_pool": [ "Skyler Bell", "Khalil Shakir", "Keon Coleman", "Greg Dortch", "Dalton Kincaid" ], "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Current starter with20targets/4games versus Chicago140/17 in2024 and85/17 in2025. Bell practiced Moore plays, but if Moore and Palmer are absent the same Bell/other receiver pool absorbs both. Preserve separate-player endpoint only assuming distinct displaced targets; passing-drive overlap is default.", "familiarity": "Moore reunited with Joe Brady after Carolina2020/21; four current Buffalo games show team experience. Bell has documented practice reps with Allen but no NFL regular game; Shakir/Coleman/Kincaid have current and prior Buffalo opportunity evidence.", "comparison": { "incumbent": { "name": "DJ Moore", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/3915416/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "98", "receivingTargets": "140", "receivingYards": "966", "yardsPerReception": "9.9", "receivingTouchdowns": "6", "longReception": "44", "receivingFirstDowns": "43", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "50", "receivingTargets": "85", "receivingYards": "682", "yardsPerReception": "13.6", "receivingTouchdowns": "6", "longReception": "46", "receivingFirstDowns": "32", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "12", "receivingTargets": "20", "receivingYards": "178", "yardsPerReception": "14.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "43", "receivingFirstDowns": "9", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "14", "rushingYards": "75", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "5.4", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "14", "rushingFirstDowns": "3", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "15", "rushingYards": "79", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "5.3", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "17", "rushingFirstDowns": "5", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "5", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "2.5", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "6", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "1", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "2.8" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "1", "passingAttempts": "1", "completionPct": "100.0", "passingYards": "2", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "2.0", "passingTouchdowns": "1", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "2", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "118.8", "adjQBR": "100.0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "6", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "6", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "38" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "1", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "6", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "7", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "42" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "98", "receivingTargets": "140", "receivingYards": "966", "yardsPerReception": "9.9", "receivingTouchdowns": "6", "longReception": "44", "receivingFirstDowns": "43", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": 17, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 8.235294117647058 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "50", "receivingTargets": "85", "receivingYards": "682", "yardsPerReception": "13.6", "receivingTouchdowns": "6", "longReception": "46", "receivingFirstDowns": "32", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": 17, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 5.0 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "12", "receivingTargets": "20", "receivingYards": "178", "yardsPerReception": "14.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "43", "receivingFirstDowns": "9", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": 3, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 5.0 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "14", "rushingYards": "75", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "5.4", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "14", "rushingFirstDowns": "3", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "rushing", "verified_starts": 17, "opportunities_per_game": { "rushingAttempts": 0.8235294117647058 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "15", "rushingYards": "79", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "5.3", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "17", "rushingFirstDowns": "5", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "rushing", "verified_starts": 17, "opportunities_per_game": { "rushingAttempts": 0.8823529411764706 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "5", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "2.5", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "6", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "rushing", "verified_starts": 3, "opportunities_per_game": { "rushingAttempts": 0.5 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "1", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "2.8" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": 17, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.058823529411764705 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "1", "passingAttempts": "1", "completionPct": "100.0", "passingYards": "2", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "2.0", "passingTouchdowns": "1", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "2", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "118.8", "adjQBR": "100.0" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": 17, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.058823529411764705 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": 3, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } } ], "official_starts_by_year": { "2024": 17, "2025": 17, "2026": 3 }, "official_career_source": "https://www.buffalobills.com/team/players-roster/dj-moore/", "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." }, "replacement": { "name": "Skyler Bell", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4683153/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [], "opportunity_comparison": [], "official_starts_by_year": { "2026": 0 }, "official_career_source": "https://www.buffalobills.com/team/players-roster/skyler-bell/", "college_seasons_separate": { "id": "4683153", "name": "Skyler Bell", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4683153/stats", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T05:34:46.299855+00:00", "league": "NCAA", "categories": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "41", "teamSlug": "uconn-huskies", "stats": { "receptions": "50", "receivingYards": "860", "yardsPerReception": "17.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "5", "longReception": "70" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "41", "teamSlug": "uconn-huskies", "stats": { "receptions": "101", "receivingYards": "1,278", "yardsPerReception": "12.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "13", "longReception": "80" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "41", "teamSlug": "uconn-huskies", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "0", "rushingYards": "4", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "0.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "4" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "41", "teamSlug": "uconn-huskies", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "-2", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "-1.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "41", "teamSlug": "uconn-huskies", "stats": { "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "5", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "5", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "30" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "41", "teamSlug": "uconn-huskies", "stats": { "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "13", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "13", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "78" } } ] } ], "conversion": "NONE: never pooled with NFL or converted into NFL points" }, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." }, "pool": [ { "name": "Skyler Bell", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4683153/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [], "opportunity_comparison": [], "official_starts_by_year": { "2026": 0 }, "official_career_source": "https://www.buffalobills.com/team/players-roster/skyler-bell/", "college_seasons_separate": { "id": "4683153", "name": "Skyler Bell", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4683153/stats", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T05:34:46.299855+00:00", "league": "NCAA", "categories": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "41", "teamSlug": "uconn-huskies", "stats": { "receptions": "50", "receivingYards": "860", "yardsPerReception": "17.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "5", "longReception": "70" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "41", "teamSlug": "uconn-huskies", "stats": { "receptions": "101", "receivingYards": "1,278", "yardsPerReception": "12.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "13", "longReception": "80" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "41", "teamSlug": "uconn-huskies", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "0", "rushingYards": "4", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "0.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "4" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "41", "teamSlug": "uconn-huskies", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "-2", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "-1.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "41", "teamSlug": "uconn-huskies", "stats": { "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "5", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "5", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "30" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "41", "teamSlug": "uconn-huskies", "stats": { "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "13", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "13", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "78" } } ] } ], "conversion": "NONE: never pooled with NFL or converted into NFL points" }, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." }, { "name": "Khalil Shakir", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4373678/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "receptions": "76", "receivingTargets": "100", "receivingYards": "821", "yardsPerReception": "10.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "longReception": "52", "receivingFirstDowns": "35", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "receptions": "72", "receivingTargets": "95", "receivingYards": "719", "yardsPerReception": "10.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "longReception": "54", "receivingFirstDowns": "29", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "15", "receivingTargets": "23", "receivingYards": "176", "yardsPerReception": "11.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "51", "receivingFirstDowns": "7", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "4", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "2.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "2", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "5", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "5.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "5", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "4", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "24" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "4", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "24" } } ] } ], "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "receptions": "76", "receivingTargets": "100", "receivingYards": "821", "yardsPerReception": "10.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "longReception": "52", "receivingFirstDowns": "35", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 6.666666666666667 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "receptions": "72", "receivingTargets": "95", "receivingYards": "719", "yardsPerReception": "10.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "longReception": "54", "receivingFirstDowns": "29", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 5.9375 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "15", "receivingTargets": "23", "receivingYards": "176", "yardsPerReception": "11.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "51", "receivingFirstDowns": "7", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 5.75 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "4", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "2.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "2", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "rushing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "rushingAttempts": 0.13333333333333333 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "5", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "5.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "5", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "rushing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "rushingAttempts": 0.0625 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } } ], "official_starts_by_year": null, "official_career_source": null, "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." }, { "name": "Keon Coleman", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4635008/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "receptions": "29", "receivingTargets": "57", "receivingYards": "556", "yardsPerReception": "19.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "longReception": "64", "receivingFirstDowns": "22", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "receptions": "38", "receivingTargets": "59", "receivingYards": "404", "yardsPerReception": "10.6", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "longReception": "37", "receivingFirstDowns": "25", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "14", "receivingTargets": "16", "receivingYards": "217", "yardsPerReception": "15.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "37", "receivingFirstDowns": "10", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "9", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "9.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "9", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": 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"57", "receivingYards": "556", "yardsPerReception": "19.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "longReception": "64", "receivingFirstDowns": "22", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 4.384615384615385 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "receptions": "38", "receivingTargets": "59", "receivingYards": "404", "yardsPerReception": "10.6", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "longReception": "37", "receivingFirstDowns": "25", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 4.538461538461538 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "14", "receivingTargets": "16", "receivingYards": "217", "yardsPerReception": "15.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "37", "receivingFirstDowns": "10", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 4.0 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "9", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "9.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "9", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "rushing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "rushingAttempts": 0.07692307692307693 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } } ], "official_starts_by_year": null, "official_career_source": null, "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." }, { "name": "Greg Dortch", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4037235/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "37", "receivingTargets": "50", "receivingYards": "342", "yardsPerReception": "9.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "39", "receivingFirstDowns": "16", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "receptions": "29", "receivingTargets": "33", "receivingYards": "206", "yardsPerReception": "7.1", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "39", "receivingFirstDowns": "10", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "5", "rushingYards": "31", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "6.2", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "8", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "rushingAttempts": "7", "rushingYards": "15", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "2.1", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "9", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "10.2" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "3", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "18" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "4", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "24" } } ] } ], "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "37", "receivingTargets": "50", "receivingYards": "342", "yardsPerReception": "9.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "39", "receivingFirstDowns": "16", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 2.9411764705882355 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "receptions": "29", "receivingTargets": "33", "receivingYards": "206", "yardsPerReception": "7.1", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "39", "receivingFirstDowns": "10", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 2.75 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "5", "rushingYards": "31", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "6.2", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "8", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "rushing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "rushingAttempts": 0.29411764705882354 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "rushingAttempts": "7", "rushingYards": "15", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "2.1", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "9", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "rushing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "rushingAttempts": 0.5833333333333334 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "10.2" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } } ], "official_starts_by_year": null, "official_career_source": null, "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." }, { "name": "Dalton Kincaid", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4385690/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "receptions": "44", "receivingTargets": "75", "receivingYards": "448", "yardsPerReception": "10.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "29", "receivingFirstDowns": "23", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "receptions": "39", "receivingTargets": "49", "receivingYards": "571", "yardsPerReception": "14.6", "receivingTouchdowns": "5", "longReception": "47", "receivingFirstDowns": "27", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "15", "receivingTargets": "19", "receivingYards": "270", "yardsPerReception": "18.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "40", "receivingFirstDowns": "10", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": 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"returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "5", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "30" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "receptions": "44", "receivingTargets": "75", "receivingYards": "448", "yardsPerReception": "10.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "29", "receivingFirstDowns": "23", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 5.769230769230769 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "receptions": "39", "receivingTargets": "49", "receivingYards": "571", "yardsPerReception": "14.6", "receivingTouchdowns": "5", "longReception": "47", "receivingFirstDowns": "27", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 4.083333333333333 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "15", "receivingTargets": "19", "receivingYards": "270", "yardsPerReception": "18.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "40", "receivingFirstDowns": "10", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 4.75 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } } ], "official_starts_by_year": null, "official_career_source": null, "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." } ] }, "sources": [ "https://www.buffalobills.com/news/buffalo-bills-officially-acquire-wide-receiver-dj-moore-from-bears-via-trade", "https://www.buffalobills.com/team/players-roster/dj-moore/", "https://www.buffalobills.com/news/i-m-excited-wr-skyler-bell-is-ready-for-his-nfl-debut", "https://www.therams.com/news/rams-injury-report-week-5-2026-vs-bills-aaron-donald-colby-parkinson-and-jaylen-watson-good-to-go-for-monday-night-football" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "base": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "adjusted": [ 21.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "home_margin": 4.588235294117645, "total": 47.27647058823529, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "base": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 22.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "adjusted": [ 22.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "home_margin": 4.717112945558274, "total": 48.971609981176925, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "base": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 22.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "adjusted": [ 22.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "home_margin": 4.239364146589487, "total": 48.451033734482785, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "base": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 22.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "adjusted": [ 22.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "home_margin": 4.239364146589487, "total": 48.451033734482785, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" } }, "baseline_overlap": "Current team rates already include some absences. No separate estimated effect exists; -3 is the additional user human assumption, never the entire measured difference. Opponent points unchanged without a supported conversion." } ], "joint_scenario": { "status": "COMPLETE CONDITIONAL SCENARIOS", "branches": [ { "confirmed_absent": [ "Joshua Palmer" ], "conditional_absent": [], "conditional_available": [ "DJ Moore" ], "role_assumption": "Palmer supporting role only; no fixed deduction", "included_players": [], "joint_sensitivities": [ { "label": "full-overlap sensitivity", "assumption": "Palmer materiality and Moore unavailability are explicit conditions. Shared Bell/passing-drive losses count once by default; distinct-player endpoint presumes separately lost opportunities, not automatic injury headcount.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "base": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": 0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "adjusted": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "home_margin": 1.588235294117645, "total": 50.27647058823529, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "base": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": 0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "adjusted": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "home_margin": 1.7171129455582737, "total": 51.971609981176925, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "base": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": 0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "adjusted": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "home_margin": 1.2393641465894873, "total": 51.451033734482785, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "base": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": 0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "adjusted": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "home_margin": 1.2393641465894873, "total": 51.451033734482785, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" } } }, { "label": "separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "assumption": "Palmer materiality and Moore unavailability are explicit conditions. Shared Bell/passing-drive losses count once by default; distinct-player endpoint presumes separately lost opportunities, not automatic injury headcount.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "base": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": 0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "adjusted": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "home_margin": 1.588235294117645, "total": 50.27647058823529, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "base": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": 0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "adjusted": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "home_margin": 1.7171129455582737, "total": 51.971609981176925, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "base": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": 0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "adjusted": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "home_margin": 1.2393641465894873, "total": 51.451033734482785, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "base": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": 0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "adjusted": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "home_margin": 1.2393641465894873, "total": 51.451033734482785, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" } } }, { "label": "distinct-player-workload sensitivity", "assumption": "Palmer materiality and Moore unavailability are explicit conditions. Shared Bell/passing-drive losses count once by default; distinct-player endpoint presumes separately lost opportunities, not automatic injury headcount.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "base": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": 0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "adjusted": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "home_margin": 1.588235294117645, "total": 50.27647058823529, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "base": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": 0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "adjusted": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "home_margin": 1.7171129455582737, "total": 51.971609981176925, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "base": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": 0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "adjusted": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "home_margin": 1.2393641465894873, "total": 51.451033734482785, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "base": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": 0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "adjusted": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "home_margin": 1.2393641465894873, "total": 51.451033734482785, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" } } } ] }, { "confirmed_absent": [ "Joshua Palmer" ], "conditional_absent": [ "DJ Moore" ], "conditional_available": [], "role_assumption": "Palmer supporting role only; no fixed deduction", "included_players": [ "DJ Moore" ], "joint_sensitivities": [ { "label": "full-overlap sensitivity", "assumption": "Palmer materiality and Moore unavailability are explicit conditions. Shared Bell/passing-drive losses count once by default; distinct-player endpoint presumes separately lost opportunities, not automatic injury headcount.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "base": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "adjusted": [ 21.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "home_margin": 4.588235294117645, "total": 47.27647058823529, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "base": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 22.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "adjusted": [ 22.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "home_margin": 4.717112945558274, "total": 48.971609981176925, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "base": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 22.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "adjusted": [ 22.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "home_margin": 4.239364146589487, "total": 48.451033734482785, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "base": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 22.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "adjusted": [ 22.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "home_margin": 4.239364146589487, "total": 48.451033734482785, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" } } }, { "label": "separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "assumption": "Palmer materiality and Moore unavailability are explicit conditions. Shared Bell/passing-drive losses count once by default; distinct-player endpoint presumes separately lost opportunities, not automatic injury headcount.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "base": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "adjusted": [ 21.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "home_margin": 4.588235294117645, "total": 47.27647058823529, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "base": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 22.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "adjusted": [ 22.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "home_margin": 4.717112945558274, "total": 48.971609981176925, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "base": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 22.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "adjusted": [ 22.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "home_margin": 4.239364146589487, "total": 48.451033734482785, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "base": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 22.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "adjusted": [ 22.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "home_margin": 4.239364146589487, "total": 48.451033734482785, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" } } }, { "label": "distinct-player-workload sensitivity", "assumption": "Palmer materiality and Moore unavailability are explicit conditions. Shared Bell/passing-drive losses count once by default; distinct-player endpoint presumes separately lost opportunities, not automatic injury headcount.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "base": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "adjusted": [ 21.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "home_margin": 4.588235294117645, "total": 47.27647058823529, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "base": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 22.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "adjusted": [ 22.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "home_margin": 4.717112945558274, "total": 48.971609981176925, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "base": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 22.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "adjusted": [ 22.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "home_margin": 4.239364146589487, "total": 48.451033734482785, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "base": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 22.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "adjusted": [ 22.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "home_margin": 4.239364146589487, "total": 48.451033734482785, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" } } } ] }, { "confirmed_absent": [ "Joshua Palmer" ], "conditional_absent": [], "conditional_available": [ "DJ Moore" ], "role_assumption": "Palmer qualifying material receiver", "included_players": [ "Joshua Palmer" ], "joint_sensitivities": [ { "label": "full-overlap sensitivity", "assumption": "Palmer materiality and Moore unavailability are explicit conditions. Shared Bell/passing-drive losses count once by default; distinct-player endpoint presumes separately lost opportunities, not automatic injury headcount.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "base": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "adjusted": [ 21.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "home_margin": 4.588235294117645, "total": 47.27647058823529, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "base": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 22.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "adjusted": [ 22.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "home_margin": 4.717112945558274, "total": 48.971609981176925, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "base": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 22.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "adjusted": [ 22.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "home_margin": 4.239364146589487, "total": 48.451033734482785, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "base": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 22.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "adjusted": [ 22.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "home_margin": 4.239364146589487, "total": 48.451033734482785, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" } } }, { "label": "separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "assumption": "Palmer materiality and Moore unavailability are explicit conditions. Shared Bell/passing-drive losses count once by default; distinct-player endpoint presumes separately lost opportunities, not automatic injury headcount.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "base": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "adjusted": [ 21.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "home_margin": 4.588235294117645, "total": 47.27647058823529, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "base": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 22.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "adjusted": [ 22.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "home_margin": 4.717112945558274, "total": 48.971609981176925, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "base": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 22.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "adjusted": [ 22.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "home_margin": 4.239364146589487, "total": 48.451033734482785, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "base": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 22.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "adjusted": [ 22.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "home_margin": 4.239364146589487, "total": 48.451033734482785, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" } } }, { "label": "distinct-player-workload sensitivity", "assumption": "Palmer materiality and Moore unavailability are explicit conditions. Shared Bell/passing-drive losses count once by default; distinct-player endpoint presumes separately lost opportunities, not automatic injury headcount.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "base": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "adjusted": [ 21.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "home_margin": 4.588235294117645, "total": 47.27647058823529, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "base": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 22.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "adjusted": [ 22.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "home_margin": 4.717112945558274, "total": 48.971609981176925, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "base": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 22.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "adjusted": [ 22.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "home_margin": 4.239364146589487, "total": 48.451033734482785, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "base": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 22.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "adjusted": [ 22.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "home_margin": 4.239364146589487, "total": 48.451033734482785, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" } } } ] }, { "confirmed_absent": [ "Joshua Palmer" ], "conditional_absent": [ "DJ Moore" ], "conditional_available": [], "role_assumption": "Palmer qualifying material receiver", "included_players": [ "Joshua Palmer", "DJ Moore" ], "joint_sensitivities": [ { "label": "full-overlap sensitivity", "assumption": "Palmer materiality and Moore unavailability are explicit conditions. Shared Bell/passing-drive losses count once by default; distinct-player endpoint presumes separately lost opportunities, not automatic injury headcount.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "base": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "adjusted": [ 21.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "home_margin": 4.588235294117645, "total": 47.27647058823529, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "base": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 22.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "adjusted": [ 22.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "home_margin": 4.717112945558274, "total": 48.971609981176925, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "base": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 22.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "adjusted": [ 22.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "home_margin": 4.239364146589487, "total": 48.451033734482785, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "base": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 22.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "adjusted": [ 22.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "home_margin": 4.239364146589487, "total": 48.451033734482785, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" } } }, { "label": "separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "assumption": "Palmer materiality and Moore unavailability are explicit conditions. Shared Bell/passing-drive losses count once by default; distinct-player endpoint presumes separately lost opportunities, not automatic injury headcount.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "base": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "adjusted": [ 21.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "home_margin": 4.588235294117645, "total": 47.27647058823529, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "base": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 22.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "adjusted": [ 22.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "home_margin": 4.717112945558274, "total": 48.971609981176925, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "base": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 22.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "adjusted": [ 22.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "home_margin": 4.239364146589487, "total": 48.451033734482785, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "base": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 22.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "adjusted": [ 22.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "home_margin": 4.239364146589487, "total": 48.451033734482785, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" } } }, { "label": "distinct-player-workload sensitivity", "assumption": "Palmer materiality and Moore unavailability are explicit conditions. Shared Bell/passing-drive losses count once by default; distinct-player endpoint presumes separately lost opportunities, not automatic injury headcount.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "base": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -6, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 18.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "adjusted": [ 18.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "home_margin": 7.588235294117645, "total": 44.27647058823529, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "base": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -6, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 19.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "adjusted": [ 19.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "home_margin": 7.717112945558274, "total": 45.971609981176925, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "base": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -6, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 19.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "adjusted": [ 19.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "home_margin": 7.239364146589487, "total": 45.451033734482785, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "base": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -6, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 19.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "adjusted": [ 19.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "home_margin": 7.239364146589487, "total": 45.451033734482785, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" } } } ] } ], "opponent_score_change": 0, "decision_basis": "Require same-side robustness through every applicable role/availability and overlap branch plus independent registered adverse test; failure means PASS, never automatic opposite." }, "no_trigger_or_remainder_review": "Josh Allen, James Cook, Ray Davis, Ty Johnson, Shakir, Coleman, Kincaid and Knox have no final game designation. Coleman/Davis full practice; no availability deduction. Shavers PUP sinceAug30; 2025 23targets/17games is a supporting role, current top three healthy except Moore. No separate main-WR -3.", "official_depth_source": "https://www.buffalobills.com/team/depth-chart", "status": "COMPLETE; conditional materiality and availability explicit" }, { "team_id": "14", "team": "Los Angeles Rams", "side": "home", "reviewed_positions": [ { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Puka Nacua", "Konata Mumpfield", "Alex Bachman" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Puka Nacua", "status": "No vendor injury designation; cross-checked official final report" }, { "player": "Konata Mumpfield", "status": "No vendor injury designation; cross-checked official final report" }, { "player": "Alex Bachman", "status": "No vendor injury designation; cross-checked official final report" } ], "comparisons": [ { "name": "Puka Nacua", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4426515/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "receptions": "79", "receivingTargets": "106", "receivingYards": "990", "yardsPerReception": "12.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "51", "receivingFirstDowns": "47", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "receptions": "129", "receivingTargets": "166", "receivingYards": "1,715", "yardsPerReception": "13.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "10", "longReception": "58", "receivingFirstDowns": "80", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "receptions": "14", "receivingTargets": "21", "receivingYards": "199", "yardsPerReception": "14.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "41", "receivingFirstDowns": "7", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "rushingAttempts": "11", "rushingYards": "46", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.2", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "9", "rushingFirstDowns": "2", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "rushingAttempts": "10", "rushingYards": "105", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "10.5", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "45", "rushingFirstDowns": "5", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "2", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "2.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "2", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "4", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "24" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "10", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "11", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "66" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "receptions": "79", "receivingTargets": "106", "receivingYards": "990", "yardsPerReception": "12.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "51", "receivingFirstDowns": "47", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 9.636363636363637 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "receptions": "129", "receivingTargets": "166", "receivingYards": "1,715", "yardsPerReception": "13.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "10", "longReception": "58", "receivingFirstDowns": "80", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 10.375 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "receptions": "14", "receivingTargets": "21", "receivingYards": "199", "yardsPerReception": "14.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "41", "receivingFirstDowns": "7", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 10.5 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "rushingAttempts": "11", "rushingYards": "46", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.2", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "9", "rushingFirstDowns": "2", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "rushing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "rushingAttempts": 1.0 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "rushingAttempts": "10", "rushingYards": "105", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "10.5", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "45", "rushingFirstDowns": "5", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "rushing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "rushingAttempts": 0.625 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "2", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "2.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "2", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "rushing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "rushingAttempts": 0.5 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } } ], "official_starts_by_year": null, "official_career_source": null, "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." }, { "name": "Konata Mumpfield", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4710855/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "10", "receivingTargets": "23", "receivingYards": "92", "yardsPerReception": "9.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "19", "receivingFirstDowns": "7", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "6", "receivingTargets": "14", "receivingYards": "112", "yardsPerReception": "18.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "48", "receivingFirstDowns": "5", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "10", "receivingTargets": "23", "receivingYards": "92", "yardsPerReception": "9.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "19", "receivingFirstDowns": "7", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 1.3529411764705883 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "6", "receivingTargets": "14", "receivingYards": "112", "yardsPerReception": "18.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "48", "receivingFirstDowns": "5", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 3.5 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } } ], "official_starts_by_year": null, "official_career_source": null, "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." }, { "name": "Alex Bachman", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/3919510/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "13", "teamSlug": "las-vegas-raiders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "6", "receptions": "3", "receivingTargets": "3", "receivingYards": "31", "yardsPerReception": "10.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "18", "receivingFirstDowns": "2", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "13", "teamSlug": "las-vegas-raiders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "receptions": "2", "receivingTargets": "3", "receivingYards": "12", "yardsPerReception": "6.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "9", "receivingFirstDowns": "2", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "13", "teamSlug": "las-vegas-raiders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "6", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "13", "teamSlug": "las-vegas-raiders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] } ], "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "13", "teamSlug": "las-vegas-raiders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "6", "receptions": "3", "receivingTargets": "3", "receivingYards": "31", "yardsPerReception": "10.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "18", "receivingFirstDowns": "2", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 0.5 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "13", "teamSlug": "las-vegas-raiders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "receptions": "2", "receivingTargets": "3", "receivingYards": "12", "yardsPerReception": "6.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "9", "receivingFirstDowns": "2", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 0.23076923076923078 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "13", "teamSlug": "las-vegas-raiders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "6", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "13", "teamSlug": "las-vegas-raiders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } } ], "official_starts_by_year": null, "official_career_source": null, "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/14/depthcharts" }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Davante Adams", "Tutu Atwell" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Davante Adams", "status": "No vendor injury designation; cross-checked official final report" }, { "player": "Tutu Atwell", "status": "No vendor injury designation; cross-checked official final report" } ], "comparisons": [ { "name": "Davante Adams", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/16800/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "13", "teamSlug": "las-vegas-raiders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "receptions": "18", "receivingTargets": "27", "receivingYards": "209", "yardsPerReception": "11.6", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "30", "receivingFirstDowns": "10", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "20", "teamSlug": "new-york-jets", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "receptions": "67", "receivingTargets": "114", "receivingYards": "854", "yardsPerReception": "12.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "7", "longReception": "71", "receivingFirstDowns": "39", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": null, "teamSlug": "2024 Totals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "receptions": "85", "receivingTargets": "141", "receivingYards": "1,063", "yardsPerReception": "12.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "8", "longReception": "71", "receivingFirstDowns": "49", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "receptions": "60", "receivingTargets": "114", "receivingYards": "789", "yardsPerReception": "13.1", "receivingTouchdowns": "14", "longReception": "44", "receivingFirstDowns": "51", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "22", "receivingTargets": "38", "receivingYards": "390", "yardsPerReception": "17.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "64", "receivingFirstDowns": "14", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "13", "teamSlug": "las-vegas-raiders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "20", "teamSlug": "new-york-jets", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": null, "teamSlug": "2024 Totals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "13", "teamSlug": "las-vegas-raiders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "20", "teamSlug": "new-york-jets", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "7", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "7", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "44" } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": null, "teamSlug": "2024 Totals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "8", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "8", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "50" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "14", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "14", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "84" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "2", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "12" } } ] } ], "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "13", "teamSlug": "las-vegas-raiders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "receptions": "18", "receivingTargets": "27", "receivingYards": "209", "yardsPerReception": "11.6", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "30", "receivingFirstDowns": "10", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 9.0 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "20", "teamSlug": "new-york-jets", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "receptions": "67", "receivingTargets": "114", "receivingYards": "854", "yardsPerReception": "12.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "7", "longReception": "71", "receivingFirstDowns": "39", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 10.363636363636363 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": null, "teamSlug": "2024 Totals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "receptions": "85", "receivingTargets": "141", "receivingYards": "1,063", "yardsPerReception": "12.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "8", "longReception": "71", "receivingFirstDowns": "49", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 10.071428571428571 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "receptions": "60", "receivingTargets": "114", "receivingYards": "789", "yardsPerReception": "13.1", "receivingTouchdowns": "14", "longReception": "44", "receivingFirstDowns": "51", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 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"completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } } ], "official_starts_by_year": null, "official_career_source": null, "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." }, { "name": "Tutu Atwell", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4360797/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "42", "receivingTargets": "62", "receivingYards": "562", "yardsPerReception": "13.4", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "50", "receivingFirstDowns": "29", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "10", "receptions": "6", "receivingTargets": "15", "receivingYards": "192", "yardsPerReception": "32.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "88", "receivingFirstDowns": "4", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "receptions": "2", "receivingTargets": "3", "receivingYards": "27", "yardsPerReception": "13.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "19", "receivingFirstDowns": "1", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "7", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.5", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "7", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "1", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "1.5" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "10", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "10", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "42", "receivingTargets": "62", "receivingYards": "562", "yardsPerReception": "13.4", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "50", "receivingFirstDowns": "29", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 3.6470588235294117 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "10", "receptions": "6", "receivingTargets": "15", "receivingYards": "192", "yardsPerReception": "32.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "88", "receivingFirstDowns": "4", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 1.5 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "receptions": "2", "receivingTargets": "3", "receivingYards": "27", "yardsPerReception": "13.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "19", "receivingFirstDowns": "1", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 1.5 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "7", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.5", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "7", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "rushing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "rushingAttempts": 0.11764705882352941 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "1", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "1.5" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.058823529411764705 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "10", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } } ], "official_starts_by_year": null, "official_career_source": null, "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/14/depthcharts" }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Jordan Whittington", "CJ Daniels" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Jordan Whittington", "status": "No vendor injury designation; cross-checked official final report" }, { "player": "CJ Daniels", "status": "No vendor injury designation; cross-checked official final report" } ], "comparisons": [ { "name": "Jordan Whittington", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4569382/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "receptions": "22", "receivingTargets": "28", "receivingYards": "293", "yardsPerReception": "13.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "50", "receivingFirstDowns": "14", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "18", "receivingTargets": "25", "receivingYards": "171", "yardsPerReception": "9.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "40", "receivingFirstDowns": "7", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "receptions": "2", "receivingTargets": "3", "receivingYards": "12", "yardsPerReception": "6.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "8", "receivingFirstDowns": "0", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "12", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "6.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "7", "rushingFirstDowns": "2", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "3", "rushingYards": "12", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "6", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] } ], "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "receptions": "22", "receivingTargets": "28", "receivingYards": "293", "yardsPerReception": "13.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "50", "receivingFirstDowns": "14", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 1.8666666666666667 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "18", "receivingTargets": "25", "receivingYards": "171", "yardsPerReception": "9.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "40", "receivingFirstDowns": "7", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 1.4705882352941178 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "receptions": "2", "receivingTargets": "3", "receivingYards": "12", "yardsPerReception": "6.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "8", "receivingFirstDowns": "0", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 1.0 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "12", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "6.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "7", "rushingFirstDowns": "2", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "rushing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "rushingAttempts": 0.13333333333333333 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "3", "rushingYards": "12", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "6", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "rushing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "rushingAttempts": 0.17647058823529413 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } } ], "official_starts_by_year": null, "official_career_source": null, "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." }, { "name": "CJ Daniels", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4605951/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [], "opportunity_comparison": [], "official_starts_by_year": null, "official_career_source": null, "college_seasons_separate": { "id": "4605951", "name": "CJ Daniels", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4605951/stats", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T05:34:46.340713+00:00", "league": "NCAA", "categories": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "99", "teamSlug": "lsu-tigers", "stats": { "receptions": "42", "receivingYards": "480", "yardsPerReception": "11.4", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "34" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2390", "teamSlug": "miami-hurricanes", "stats": { "receptions": "50", "receivingYards": "557", "yardsPerReception": "11.1", "receivingTouchdowns": "7", "longReception": "47" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2390", "teamSlug": "miami-hurricanes", "stats": { "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "7", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "7", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "44" } } ] } ], "conversion": "NONE: never pooled with NFL or converted into NFL points" }, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/14/depthcharts" }, { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Matthew Stafford", "Stetson Bennett IV", "Ty Simpson", "Matthew Caldwell" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Matthew Stafford", "status": "No vendor injury designation; cross-checked official final report" }, { "player": "Stetson Bennett IV", "status": "No vendor injury designation; cross-checked official final report" }, { "player": "Ty Simpson", "status": "No vendor injury designation; cross-checked official final report" }, { "player": "Matthew Caldwell", "status": [ { "date": "2026-08-29T22:20Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ] } ], "comparisons": [ { "name": "Matthew Stafford", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/12483/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "completions": "340", "passingAttempts": "517", "completionPct": "65.8", "passingYards": "3,762", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "7.3", "passingTouchdowns": "20", "interceptions": "8", "longPassing": "69", "sacks": "28", "QBRating": "93.7", "adjQBR": "61.5" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "388", "passingAttempts": "597", "completionPct": "65.0", "passingYards": "4,707", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "7.9", "passingTouchdowns": "46", "interceptions": "8", "longPassing": "88", "sacks": "23", "QBRating": "109.2", "adjQBR": "71.2" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "99", "passingAttempts": "162", "completionPct": "61.1", "passingYards": "1,189", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "7.3", "passingTouchdowns": "6", "interceptions": "6", "longPassing": "64", "sacks": "6", "QBRating": "80.5", "adjQBR": "62.1" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "rushingAttempts": "30", "rushingYards": "41", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "1.4", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "15", "rushingFirstDowns": "10", "rushingFumbles": "2", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "29", "rushingYards": "1", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "0.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "6", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "3", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "rushingAttempts": "11", "rushingYards": "21", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "1.9", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "10", "rushingFirstDowns": "2", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "passingTouchdowns": "20", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "0", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "46", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "0", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "passingTouchdowns": "6", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "0", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "0" } } ] } ], "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "completions": "340", "passingAttempts": "517", "completionPct": "65.8", "passingYards": "3,762", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "7.3", "passingTouchdowns": "20", "interceptions": "8", "longPassing": "69", "sacks": "28", "QBRating": "93.7", "adjQBR": "61.5" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 32.3125 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "388", "passingAttempts": "597", "completionPct": "65.0", "passingYards": "4,707", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "7.9", "passingTouchdowns": "46", "interceptions": "8", "longPassing": "88", "sacks": "23", "QBRating": "109.2", "adjQBR": "71.2" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 35.11764705882353 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "99", "passingAttempts": "162", "completionPct": "61.1", "passingYards": "1,189", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "7.3", "passingTouchdowns": "6", "interceptions": "6", "longPassing": "64", "sacks": "6", "QBRating": "80.5", "adjQBR": "62.1" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 40.5 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "rushingAttempts": "30", "rushingYards": "41", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "1.4", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "15", "rushingFirstDowns": "10", "rushingFumbles": "2", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "rushing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "rushingAttempts": 1.875 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "29", "rushingYards": "1", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "0.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "6", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "3", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" }, "category": "rushing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "rushingAttempts": 1.7058823529411764 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "rushingAttempts": "11", "rushingYards": "21", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "1.9", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "10", "rushingFirstDowns": "2", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "rushing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "rushingAttempts": 2.75 } } ], "official_starts_by_year": null, "official_career_source": null, "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." }, { "name": "Stetson Bennett IV", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4259553/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "1", "completions": "2", "passingAttempts": "3", "completionPct": "66.7", "passingYards": "13", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "4.3", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "8", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "75.7", "adjQBR": "59.7" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "1", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "9", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "9.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "9", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] } ], "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "1", "completions": "2", "passingAttempts": "3", "completionPct": "66.7", "passingYards": "13", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "4.3", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "8", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "75.7", "adjQBR": "59.7" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 3.0 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "1", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "9", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "9.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "9", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "rushing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "rushingAttempts": 1.0 } } ], "official_starts_by_year": null, "official_career_source": null, "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." }, { "name": "Ty Simpson", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4685522/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [], "opportunity_comparison": [], "official_starts_by_year": null, "official_career_source": null, "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." }, { "name": "Matthew Caldwell", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4877717/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [], "opportunity_comparison": [], "official_starts_by_year": null, "official_career_source": null, "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/14/depthcharts" }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Colby Parkinson", "Tyler Higbee", "Davis Allen", "Max Klare", "Terrance Ferguson" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Colby Parkinson", "status": "No vendor injury designation; cross-checked official final report" }, { "player": "Tyler Higbee", "status": "No vendor injury designation; cross-checked official final report" }, { "player": "Davis Allen", "status": "No vendor injury designation; cross-checked official final report" }, { "player": "Max Klare", "status": "No vendor injury designation; cross-checked official final report" }, { "player": "Terrance Ferguson", "status": [ { "date": "2026-10-07T17:52Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ] } ], "comparisons": [ { "name": "Colby Parkinson", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4242557/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "30", "receivingTargets": "49", "receivingYards": "294", "yardsPerReception": "9.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "23", "receivingFirstDowns": "15", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "receptions": "43", "receivingTargets": "56", "receivingYards": "408", "yardsPerReception": "9.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "8", "longReception": "26", "receivingFirstDowns": "24", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "receptions": "3", "receivingTargets": "6", "receivingYards": "21", "yardsPerReception": "7.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "8", "receivingFirstDowns": "1", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "8", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "8", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "48" } } ] } ], "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "30", "receivingTargets": "49", "receivingYards": "294", "yardsPerReception": "9.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "23", "receivingFirstDowns": "15", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": 9, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 2.8823529411764706 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "receptions": "43", "receivingTargets": "56", "receivingYards": "408", "yardsPerReception": "9.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "8", "longReception": "26", "receivingFirstDowns": "24", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": 10, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 3.7333333333333334 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "receptions": "3", "receivingTargets": "6", "receivingYards": "21", "yardsPerReception": "7.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "8", "receivingFirstDowns": "1", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": 3, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 2.0 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": 9, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": 10, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": 3, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } } ], "official_starts_by_year": { "2024": 9, "2025": 10, "2026": 3 }, "official_career_source": "https://www.therams.com/team/players-roster/colby-parkinson/", "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." }, { "name": "Tyler Higbee", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/2573401/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "receptions": "8", "receivingTargets": "12", "receivingYards": "66", "yardsPerReception": "8.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "17", "receivingFirstDowns": "5", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "10", "receptions": "25", "receivingTargets": "36", "receivingYards": "281", "yardsPerReception": "11.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "24", "receivingFirstDowns": "17", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "15", "receivingTargets": "19", "receivingYards": "141", "yardsPerReception": "9.4", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "20", "receivingFirstDowns": "11", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "10", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "2", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "12" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "10", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "3", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "18" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "receptions": "8", "receivingTargets": "12", "receivingYards": "66", "yardsPerReception": "8.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "17", "receivingFirstDowns": "5", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": 3, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 4.0 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "10", "receptions": "25", "receivingTargets": "36", "receivingYards": "281", "yardsPerReception": "11.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "24", "receivingFirstDowns": "17", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": 8, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 3.6 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "15", "receivingTargets": "19", "receivingYards": "141", "yardsPerReception": "9.4", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "20", "receivingFirstDowns": "11", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": 0, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 4.75 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": 3, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "10", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": 8, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": 0, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } } ], "official_starts_by_year": { "2024": 3, "2025": 8, "2026": 0 }, "official_career_source": "https://www.therams.com/team/players-roster/tyler-higbee/", "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." }, { "name": "Davis Allen", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4426553/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "receptions": "6", "receivingTargets": "13", "receivingYards": "39", "yardsPerReception": "6.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "13", "receivingFirstDowns": "2", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "24", "receivingTargets": "33", "receivingYards": "208", "yardsPerReception": "8.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "27", "receivingFirstDowns": "12", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "4", "receivingTargets": "7", "receivingYards": "39", "yardsPerReception": "9.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "13", "receivingFirstDowns": "3", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "3", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "18" } } ] } ], "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "receptions": "6", "receivingTargets": "13", "receivingYards": "39", "yardsPerReception": "6.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "13", "receivingFirstDowns": "2", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": 5, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 0.8666666666666667 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "24", "receivingTargets": "33", "receivingYards": "208", "yardsPerReception": "8.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "27", "receivingFirstDowns": "12", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": 5, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 1.9411764705882353 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "4", "receivingTargets": "7", "receivingYards": "39", "yardsPerReception": "9.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "13", "receivingFirstDowns": "3", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": 3, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 1.75 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": 5, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": 5, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": 3, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } } ], "official_starts_by_year": { "2024": 5, "2025": 5, "2026": 3 }, "official_career_source": "https://www.therams.com/team/players-roster/davis-allen/", "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." }, { "name": "Max Klare", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4833029/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [], "opportunity_comparison": [], "official_starts_by_year": null, "official_career_source": null, "college_seasons_separate": { "id": "4833029", "name": "Max Klare", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4833029/stats", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T05:34:46.312275+00:00", "league": "NCAA", "categories": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2509", "teamSlug": "purdue-boilermakers", "stats": { "receptions": "51", "receivingYards": "685", "yardsPerReception": "13.4", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "longReception": "62" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "194", "teamSlug": "ohio-state-buckeyes", "stats": { "receptions": "43", "receivingYards": "448", "yardsPerReception": "10.4", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "39" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2509", "teamSlug": "purdue-boilermakers", "stats": { "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "4", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "26" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "194", "teamSlug": "ohio-state-buckeyes", "stats": { "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "2", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "12" } } ] } ], "conversion": "NONE: never pooled with NFL or converted into NFL points" }, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." }, { "name": "Terrance Ferguson", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4570037/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "receptions": "11", "receivingTargets": "25", "receivingYards": "231", "yardsPerReception": "21.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "36", "receivingFirstDowns": "9", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "receptions": "7", "receivingTargets": "12", "receivingYards": "63", "yardsPerReception": "9.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "20", "receivingFirstDowns": "3", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "0", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "0.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "0", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "3", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "18" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "receptions": "11", "receivingTargets": "25", "receivingYards": "231", "yardsPerReception": "21.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "36", "receivingFirstDowns": "9", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": 3, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 1.7857142857142858 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "receptions": "7", "receivingTargets": "12", "receivingYards": "63", "yardsPerReception": "9.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "20", "receivingFirstDowns": "3", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": 3, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 4.0 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "0", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "0.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "0", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "rushing", "verified_starts": 3, "opportunities_per_game": { "rushingAttempts": 0.07142857142857142 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": 3, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": 3, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } } ], "official_starts_by_year": { "2025": 3, "2026": 3 }, "official_career_source": "https://www.therams.com/team/players-roster/terrance-ferguson/", "college_seasons_separate": { "id": "4570037", "name": "Terrance Ferguson", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4570037/stats", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T05:34:46.313429+00:00", "league": "NCAA", "categories": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2483", "teamSlug": "oregon-ducks", "stats": { "receptions": "43", "receivingYards": "591", "yardsPerReception": "13.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "62" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2483", "teamSlug": "oregon-ducks", "stats": { "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "3", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "20" } } ] } ], "conversion": "NONE: never pooled with NFL or converted into NFL points" }, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/14/depthcharts" }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Kyren Williams", "Blake Corum", "Dean Connors", "Ronnie Rivers" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Kyren Williams", "status": "No vendor injury designation; cross-checked official final report" }, { "player": "Blake Corum", "status": "No vendor injury designation; cross-checked official final report" }, { "player": "Dean Connors", "status": "No vendor injury designation; cross-checked official final report" }, { "player": "Ronnie Rivers", "status": [ { "date": "2026-09-24T00:22Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ] } ], "comparisons": [ { "name": "Kyren Williams", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4430737/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "rushingAttempts": "316", "rushingYards": "1,299", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.1", "rushingTouchdowns": "14", "longRushing": "30", "rushingFirstDowns": "85", "rushingFumbles": "5", "rushingFumblesLost": "3" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "259", "rushingYards": "1,252", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.8", "rushingTouchdowns": "10", "longRushing": "34", "rushingFirstDowns": "74", "rushingFumbles": "2", "rushingFumblesLost": "2" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "rushingAttempts": "54", "rushingYards": "294", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "5.4", "rushingTouchdowns": "3", "longRushing": "30", "rushingFirstDowns": "16", "rushingFumbles": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "receptions": "34", "receivingTargets": "40", "receivingYards": "182", "yardsPerReception": "5.4", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "26", "receivingFirstDowns": "6", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "36", "receivingTargets": "50", "receivingYards": "281", "yardsPerReception": "7.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "30", "receivingFirstDowns": "12", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": 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"position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "rushingAttempts": "5", "rushingYards": "19", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.8", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "7", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "5", "receivingTargets": "6", "receivingYards": "34", "yardsPerReception": "6.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "14", "receivingFirstDowns": "1", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "receptions": "1", "receivingTargets": "1", "receivingYards": "5", "yardsPerReception": "5.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "5", "receivingFirstDowns": "1", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] } ], "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "22", "rushingYards": "99", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.5", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "12", "rushingFirstDowns": "6", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "rushing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "rushingAttempts": 1.2941176470588236 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "rushingAttempts": "9", "rushingYards": "46", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "5.1", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "9", "rushingFirstDowns": "3", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "rushing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "rushingAttempts": 0.8181818181818182 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "rushingAttempts": "5", "rushingYards": "19", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.8", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "7", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "rushing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "rushingAttempts": 2.5 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "5", "receivingTargets": "6", "receivingYards": "34", "yardsPerReception": "6.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "14", "receivingFirstDowns": "1", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 0.35294117647058826 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "receptions": "1", "receivingTargets": "1", "receivingYards": "5", "yardsPerReception": "5.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "5", "receivingFirstDowns": "1", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 0.5 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": null, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } } ], "official_starts_by_year": null, "official_career_source": null, "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/14/depthcharts" } ], "availability_inventory": [ { "player": "Matthew Caldwell", "position": "QB", "injuries": [ { "date": "2026-08-29T22:20Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ] }, { "player": "Terrance Ferguson", "position": "TE", "injuries": [ { "date": "2026-10-07T17:52Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ] }, { "player": "Ronnie Rivers", "position": "RB", "injuries": [ { "date": "2026-09-24T00:22Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ] } ], "isolated_scenarios": [ { "player": "Terrance Ferguson", "position": "TE", "state": "confirmed unavailable: IR October2", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "Colby Parkinson", "replacement_pool": [ "Colby Parkinson", "Tyler Higbee", "Davis Allen", "Max Klare" ], "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Receiving TE started3/3games,12targets/7catches/63yards/1TD current, versus25targets/14games and3starts2025. Four targets/game exceeds current Parkinson2.0 and Allen1.75; Higbee4.75. Qualifies as primary receiving option in multi-TE attack despite IR moving him down vendor depth. Official current chart has Parkinson and Allen/Higbee; returning Parkinson, Higbee and Allen share lost receiving role. No exact share invented.", "familiarity": "Ferguson2024 Oregon production separate from Rams2025/26. Parkinson/Higbee/Allen all have Rams2024/25 and current2026 opportunities with Stafford/McVay; demonstrated team familiarity, not proof identical assignments. Parkinson cleared Oct10 after missing prior game; Higbee rest DNP has no game designation.", "comparison": { "incumbent": { "name": "Terrance Ferguson", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4570037/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "receptions": "11", "receivingTargets": "25", "receivingYards": "231", "yardsPerReception": "21.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "36", "receivingFirstDowns": "9", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "receptions": "7", "receivingTargets": "12", "receivingYards": "63", "yardsPerReception": "9.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "20", "receivingFirstDowns": "3", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "0", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "0.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "0", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "3", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "18" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "receptions": "11", "receivingTargets": "25", "receivingYards": "231", "yardsPerReception": "21.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "36", "receivingFirstDowns": "9", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": 3, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 1.7857142857142858 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "receptions": "7", "receivingTargets": "12", "receivingYards": "63", "yardsPerReception": "9.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "20", "receivingFirstDowns": "3", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": 3, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 4.0 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "0", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "0.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "0", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "rushing", "verified_starts": 3, "opportunities_per_game": { "rushingAttempts": 0.07142857142857142 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": 3, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": 3, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } } ], "official_starts_by_year": { "2025": 3, "2026": 3 }, "official_career_source": "https://www.therams.com/team/players-roster/terrance-ferguson/", "college_seasons_separate": { "id": "4570037", "name": "Terrance Ferguson", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4570037/stats", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T05:34:46.313429+00:00", "league": "NCAA", "categories": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2483", "teamSlug": "oregon-ducks", "stats": { "receptions": "43", "receivingYards": "591", "yardsPerReception": "13.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "62" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2483", "teamSlug": "oregon-ducks", "stats": { "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "3", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "20" } } ] } ], "conversion": "NONE: never pooled with NFL or converted into NFL points" }, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." }, "replacement": { "name": "Colby Parkinson", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4242557/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "30", "receivingTargets": "49", "receivingYards": "294", "yardsPerReception": "9.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "23", "receivingFirstDowns": "15", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "receptions": "43", "receivingTargets": "56", "receivingYards": "408", "yardsPerReception": "9.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "8", "longReception": "26", "receivingFirstDowns": "24", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "receptions": "3", "receivingTargets": "6", "receivingYards": "21", "yardsPerReception": "7.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "8", "receivingFirstDowns": "1", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "8", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "8", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "48" } } ] } ], "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "30", "receivingTargets": "49", "receivingYards": "294", "yardsPerReception": "9.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "23", "receivingFirstDowns": "15", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": 9, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 2.8823529411764706 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "receptions": "43", "receivingTargets": "56", "receivingYards": "408", "yardsPerReception": "9.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "8", "longReception": "26", "receivingFirstDowns": "24", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": 10, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 3.7333333333333334 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "receptions": "3", "receivingTargets": "6", "receivingYards": "21", "yardsPerReception": "7.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "8", "receivingFirstDowns": "1", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": 3, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 2.0 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": 9, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": 10, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": 3, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } } ], "official_starts_by_year": { "2024": 9, "2025": 10, "2026": 3 }, "official_career_source": "https://www.therams.com/team/players-roster/colby-parkinson/", "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." }, "pool": [ { "name": "Colby Parkinson", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4242557/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "30", "receivingTargets": "49", "receivingYards": "294", "yardsPerReception": "9.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "23", "receivingFirstDowns": "15", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "receptions": "43", "receivingTargets": "56", "receivingYards": "408", "yardsPerReception": "9.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "8", "longReception": "26", "receivingFirstDowns": "24", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "receptions": "3", "receivingTargets": "6", "receivingYards": "21", "yardsPerReception": "7.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "8", "receivingFirstDowns": "1", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "8", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "8", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "48" } } ] } ], "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "30", "receivingTargets": "49", "receivingYards": "294", "yardsPerReception": "9.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "23", "receivingFirstDowns": "15", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": 9, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 2.8823529411764706 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "receptions": "43", "receivingTargets": "56", "receivingYards": "408", "yardsPerReception": "9.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "8", "longReception": "26", "receivingFirstDowns": "24", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": 10, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 3.7333333333333334 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "receptions": "3", "receivingTargets": "6", "receivingYards": "21", "yardsPerReception": "7.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "8", "receivingFirstDowns": "1", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": 3, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 2.0 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": 9, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": 10, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": 3, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } } ], "official_starts_by_year": { "2024": 9, "2025": 10, "2026": 3 }, "official_career_source": "https://www.therams.com/team/players-roster/colby-parkinson/", "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." }, { "name": "Tyler Higbee", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/2573401/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "receptions": "8", "receivingTargets": "12", "receivingYards": "66", "yardsPerReception": "8.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "17", "receivingFirstDowns": "5", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "10", "receptions": "25", "receivingTargets": "36", "receivingYards": "281", "yardsPerReception": "11.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "24", "receivingFirstDowns": "17", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "15", "receivingTargets": "19", "receivingYards": "141", "yardsPerReception": "9.4", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "20", "receivingFirstDowns": "11", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "10", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "2", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "12" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "10", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "3", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "18" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "receptions": "8", "receivingTargets": "12", "receivingYards": "66", "yardsPerReception": "8.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "17", "receivingFirstDowns": "5", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": 3, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 4.0 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "10", "receptions": "25", "receivingTargets": "36", "receivingYards": "281", "yardsPerReception": "11.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "24", "receivingFirstDowns": "17", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": 8, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 3.6 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "15", "receivingTargets": "19", "receivingYards": "141", "yardsPerReception": "9.4", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "20", "receivingFirstDowns": "11", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": 0, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 4.75 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": 3, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "10", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": 8, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": 0, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } } ], "official_starts_by_year": { "2024": 3, "2025": 8, "2026": 0 }, "official_career_source": "https://www.therams.com/team/players-roster/tyler-higbee/", "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." }, { "name": "Davis Allen", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4426553/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "receptions": "6", "receivingTargets": "13", "receivingYards": "39", "yardsPerReception": "6.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "13", "receivingFirstDowns": "2", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "24", "receivingTargets": "33", "receivingYards": "208", "yardsPerReception": "8.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "27", "receivingFirstDowns": "12", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "4", "receivingTargets": "7", "receivingYards": "39", "yardsPerReception": "9.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "13", "receivingFirstDowns": "3", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "3", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "18" } } ] } ], "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "receptions": "6", "receivingTargets": "13", "receivingYards": "39", "yardsPerReception": "6.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "13", "receivingFirstDowns": "2", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": 5, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 0.8666666666666667 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "24", "receivingTargets": "33", "receivingYards": "208", "yardsPerReception": "8.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "27", "receivingFirstDowns": "12", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": 5, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 1.9411764705882353 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "4", "receivingTargets": "7", "receivingYards": "39", "yardsPerReception": "9.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "13", "receivingFirstDowns": "3", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "category": "receiving", "verified_starts": 3, "opportunities_per_game": { "receivingTargets": 1.75 } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": 5, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": 5, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" }, "category": "passing", "verified_starts": 3, "opportunities_per_game": { "passingAttempts": 0.0 } } ], "official_starts_by_year": { "2024": 5, "2025": 5, "2026": 3 }, "official_career_source": "https://www.therams.com/team/players-roster/davis-allen/", "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." }, { "name": "Max Klare", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4833029/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [], "opportunity_comparison": [], "official_starts_by_year": null, "official_career_source": null, "college_seasons_separate": { "id": "4833029", "name": "Max Klare", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4833029/stats", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T05:34:46.312275+00:00", "league": "NCAA", "categories": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2509", "teamSlug": "purdue-boilermakers", "stats": { "receptions": "51", "receivingYards": "685", "yardsPerReception": "13.4", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "longReception": "62" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "194", "teamSlug": "ohio-state-buckeyes", "stats": { "receptions": "43", "receivingYards": "448", "yardsPerReception": "10.4", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "39" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2509", "teamSlug": "purdue-boilermakers", "stats": { "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "4", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "26" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "194", "teamSlug": "ohio-state-buckeyes", "stats": { "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "2", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "12" } } ] } ], "conversion": "NONE: never pooled with NFL or converted into NFL points" }, "missing_fields": [ "routes and offensive snaps where not verified", "red-zone targets/touches", "pressure and protection-call experience", "incremental drive-scoring conversion", "drops unless separately documented" ], "caveat": "Prior 2024/2025 and current 2026 kept separate, as are teams and leagues; no college conversion or inferred zero for missing cells. Blank 2026 Bell career is supported by official forthcoming debut; no prior NFL opportunities." } ] }, "sources": [ "https://www.therams.com/news/rams-injury-updates-bills-week-5-2026-jaylen-watson-aaron-donald-terrance-ferguson-monday-night-football", "https://www.therams.com/team/transactions/2026", "https://www.therams.com/team/players-roster/terrance-ferguson/", "https://www.therams.com/team/depth-chart", "https://www.therams.com/news/rams-injury-report-week-5-2026-vs-bills-aaron-donald-colby-parkinson-and-jaylen-watson-good-to-go-for-monday-night-football" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "base": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 24.344117647058823, 22.932352941176468 ], "adjusted": [ 24.344117647058823, 22.932352941176468 ], "home_margin": -1.411764705882355, "total": 47.27647058823529, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "base": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 25.127248517809328, 23.8443614633676 ], "adjusted": [ 25.127248517809328, 23.8443614633676 ], "home_margin": -1.2828870544417263, "total": 48.971609981176925, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "base": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 23.345198940536136 ], "adjusted": [ 25.10583479394665, 23.345198940536136 ], "home_margin": -1.7606358534105127, "total": 48.451033734482785, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "base": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 23.345198940536136 ], "adjusted": [ 25.10583479394665, 23.345198940536136 ], "home_margin": -1.7606358534105127, "total": 48.451033734482785, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" } }, "baseline_overlap": "Current team rates already include some absences. No separate estimated effect exists; -3 is the additional user human assumption, never the entire measured difference. Opponent points unchanged without a supported conversion." } ], "joint_scenario": { "status": "COMPLETE CONDITIONAL SCENARIOS", "branches": [ { "confirmed_absent": [ "Terrance Ferguson" ], "conditional_absent": [], "conditional_available": [], "included_players": [ "Terrance Ferguson" ], "joint_sensitivities": [ { "label": "full-overlap sensitivity", "assumption": "Single qualifying receiving-TE absence; no additional deduction for cleared Parkinson or rest-only Higbee.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "base": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 24.344117647058823, 22.932352941176468 ], "adjusted": [ 24.344117647058823, 22.932352941176468 ], "home_margin": -1.411764705882355, "total": 47.27647058823529, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "base": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 25.127248517809328, 23.8443614633676 ], "adjusted": [ 25.127248517809328, 23.8443614633676 ], "home_margin": -1.2828870544417263, "total": 48.971609981176925, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "base": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 23.345198940536136 ], "adjusted": [ 25.10583479394665, 23.345198940536136 ], "home_margin": -1.7606358534105127, "total": 48.451033734482785, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "base": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 23.345198940536136 ], "adjusted": [ 25.10583479394665, 23.345198940536136 ], "home_margin": -1.7606358534105127, "total": 48.451033734482785, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" } } }, { "label": "separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "assumption": "Single qualifying receiving-TE absence; no additional deduction for cleared Parkinson or rest-only Higbee.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "base": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 24.344117647058823, 22.932352941176468 ], "adjusted": [ 24.344117647058823, 22.932352941176468 ], "home_margin": -1.411764705882355, "total": 47.27647058823529, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "base": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 25.127248517809328, 23.8443614633676 ], "adjusted": [ 25.127248517809328, 23.8443614633676 ], "home_margin": -1.2828870544417263, "total": 48.971609981176925, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "base": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 23.345198940536136 ], "adjusted": [ 25.10583479394665, 23.345198940536136 ], "home_margin": -1.7606358534105127, "total": 48.451033734482785, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "base": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 23.345198940536136 ], "adjusted": [ 25.10583479394665, 23.345198940536136 ], "home_margin": -1.7606358534105127, "total": 48.451033734482785, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" } } }, { "label": "distinct-player-workload sensitivity", "assumption": "Single qualifying receiving-TE absence; no additional deduction for cleared Parkinson or rest-only Higbee.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "base": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 24.344117647058823, 22.932352941176468 ], "adjusted": [ 24.344117647058823, 22.932352941176468 ], "home_margin": -1.411764705882355, "total": 47.27647058823529, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "base": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 25.127248517809328, 23.8443614633676 ], "adjusted": [ 25.127248517809328, 23.8443614633676 ], "home_margin": -1.2828870544417263, "total": 48.971609981176925, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "base": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 23.345198940536136 ], "adjusted": [ 25.10583479394665, 23.345198940536136 ], "home_margin": -1.7606358534105127, "total": 48.451033734482785, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "base": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED; retain registered baseline, not a claim true player effect is zero", "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 23.345198940536136 ], "adjusted": [ 25.10583479394665, 23.345198940536136 ], "home_margin": -1.7606358534105127, "total": 48.451033734482785, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze and model/market/risk/stress gates" } } } ] } ], "opponent_score_change": 0, "decision_basis": "Require same-side robustness through every applicable role/availability and overlap branch plus independent registered adverse test; failure means PASS, never automatic opposite." }, "no_trigger_or_remainder_review": "Stafford, Williams, Corum, Nacua, Adams, Whittington and Parkinson have no final game designation; rest DNP is not OUT. Rivers IR supporting reserve behind Williams/Corum with one current target, Caldwell reserve rookieIR: no lead/QB deduction. Dedich/Trost reserve OLIR are protection depth issues, not skill-position -3.", "official_depth_source": "https://www.therams.com/team/depth-chart", "status": "COMPLETE; conditional materiality and availability explicit" } ], "release_gate": "PERSONNEL RESEARCH COMPLETE WITH CONDITIONAL SCENARIOS; parent freeze and all model/market/risk gates required", "decision": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "defense_protection_inventory": [ { "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/2/depthcharts", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T05:34:46.542094+00:00", "team": "2", "positions": [ { "position": "LDE", "athletes": [ { "name": "T.J. 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Gardner-Johnson", "id": "4034953", "depth_order": 1, "injuries": [] }, { "name": "Sam Franklin Jr.", "id": "4044133", "depth_order": 2, "injuries": [] } ] }, { "position": "RCB", "athletes": [ { "name": "Maxwell Hairston", "id": "4688931", "depth_order": 1, "injuries": [] } ] }, { "position": "NB", "athletes": [ { "name": "Dee Alford", "id": "4401823", "depth_order": 1, "injuries": [ { "status": "Questionable", "date": "2026-10-10T19:14Z" } ] }, { "name": "Jordan Hancock", "id": "4596480", "depth_order": 2, "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-26T01:05Z" } ] } ] }, { "position": "PK", "athletes": [ { "name": "Tyler Bass", "id": "3917232", "depth_order": 1, "injuries": [] } ] }, { "position": "H", "athletes": [ { "name": "Tommy Doman Jr.", "id": "4682758", "depth_order": 1, "injuries": [] } ] }, { "position": "PR", "athletes": [ { "name": "Greg Dortch", "id": "4037235", "depth_order": 1, "injuries": [] }, { "name": "Dee Alford", "id": "4401823", "depth_order": 2, "injuries": [ { "status": "Questionable", "date": "2026-10-10T19:14Z" } ] }, { "name": "Ray Davis", "id": "4429501", "depth_order": 3, "injuries": [] }, { "name": "Khalil Shakir", "id": "4373678", "depth_order": 4, "injuries": [] } ] }, { "position": "KR", "athletes": [ { "name": "Greg Dortch", "id": "4037235", "depth_order": 1, "injuries": [] }, { "name": "Ray Davis", "id": "4429501", "depth_order": 2, "injuries": [] }, { "name": "Ty Johnson", "id": "3915411", "depth_order": 3, "injuries": [] } ] }, { "position": "LT", "athletes": [ { "name": "Dion Dawkins", "id": "3051324", "depth_order": 1, "injuries": [] }, { "name": "Jude Bowry", "id": "4869533", "depth_order": 2, "injuries": [] } ] }, { "position": "LG", "athletes": [ { "name": "Alec Anderson", "id": "4367203", "depth_order": 1, "injuries": [] }, { "name": "Austin Corbett", "id": "3056608", "depth_order": 2, "injuries": [] } ] }, { "position": "C", "athletes": [ { "name": "Connor McGovern", "id": "4033748", "depth_order": 1, "injuries": [] }, { "name": "Lloyd Cushenberry III", "id": "4035448", "depth_order": 2, "injuries": [] } ] }, { "position": "RG", "athletes": [ { "name": "O'Cyrus Torrence", "id": "4428696", "depth_order": 1, "injuries": [] }, { "name": "Ar'maj Reed-Adams", "id": "4606712", "depth_order": 2, "injuries": [] } ] }, { "position": "RT", "athletes": [ { "name": "Spencer Brown", "id": "4030899", "depth_order": 1, "injuries": [] }, { "name": "Tylan Grable", "id": "4368828", "depth_order": 2, "injuries": [] } ] } ], "retention": "Only depth identity injury fields; no markets" }, { "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/14/depthcharts", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T05:34:46.797447+00:00", "team": "14", "positions": [ { "position": "LDE", "athletes": [ { "name": "Kobie Turner", "id": "4250621", "depth_order": 1, "injuries": [] }, { "name": "Tyler Davis", "id": "4568217", "depth_order": 2, "injuries": [] }, { "name": "Larrell Murchison", "id": "4240123", "depth_order": 3, "injuries": [] } ] }, { "position": "NT", "athletes": [ { "name": "Poona Ford", "id": "3125114", "depth_order": 1, "injuries": [] }, { "name": "Ty Hamilton", "id": "4431118", "depth_order": 2, "injuries": [] } ] }, { "position": "RDE", "athletes": [ { "name": "Aaron Donald", "id": "16716", "depth_order": 1, "injuries": [] }, { "name": "Braden Fiske", "id": "4362245", "depth_order": 2, "injuries": [] } ] }, { "position": "WLB", "athletes": [ { "name": "Byron Young", "id": "4875196", "depth_order": 1, "injuries": [] }, { "name": "Josaiah Stewart", "id": "4682983", "depth_order": 2, "injuries": [] }, { "name": "Eddie Walls III", "id": "4877357", "depth_order": 3, "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-06-05T01:44Z" } ] }, { "name": "Daniel Rickert", "id": "4695022", "depth_order": 4, "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-08-26T00:54Z" } ] } ] }, { "position": "LILB", "athletes": [ { "name": "Nate Landman", "id": "4243181", "depth_order": 1, "injuries": [] }, { "name": "Grant Stuard", "id": "4240255", "depth_order": 2, "injuries": [] } ] }, { "position": "RILB", "athletes": [ { "name": "Omar Speights", "id": "4428550", "depth_order": 1, "injuries": [] }, { "name": "Shaun Dolac", "id": "4693848", "depth_order": 2, "injuries": [] } ] }, { "position": "SLB", "athletes": [ { "name": "Desjuan Johnson", "id": "4362294", "depth_order": 1, "injuries": [] }, { "name": "Wesley Bailey", "id": "4430919", "depth_order": 2, "injuries": [] }, { "name": "Myles Garrett", "id": "3122132", "depth_order": 3, "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-10T20:19Z" } ] }, { "name": "Keir Thomas II", "id": "4038843", "depth_order": 4, "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-08T20:42Z" } ] } ] }, { "position": "LCB", "athletes": [ { "name": "Jaylen Watson", "id": "4697639", "depth_order": 1, "injuries": [] }, { "name": "Josh Wallace", "id": "4572371", "depth_order": 2, "injuries": [] } ] }, { "position": "SS", "athletes": [ { "name": "Kam Curl", "id": "4242154", "depth_order": 1, "injuries": [] }, { "name": "Jaylen McCollough", "id": "4427120", "depth_order": 2, "injuries": [] } ] }, { "position": "FS", "athletes": [ { "name": "Kamren Kinchens", "id": "4596363", "depth_order": 1, "injuries": [] }, { "name": "Maximus Pulley", "id": "5082391", "depth_order": 2, "injuries": [] } ] }, { "position": "RCB", "athletes": [ { "name": "Trent McDuffie", "id": "4426405", "depth_order": 1, "injuries": [] }, { "name": "Emmanuel Forbes Jr.", "id": "4429767", "depth_order": 2, "injuries": [] } ] }, { "position": "NB", "athletes": [ { "name": "Quentin Lake", "id": "4249128", "depth_order": 1, "injuries": [ { "status": "Questionable", "date": "2026-10-11T02:14Z" } ] } ] }, { "position": "PK", "athletes": [ { "name": "Harrison Mevis", "id": "4574716", "depth_order": 1, "injuries": [] } ] }, { "position": "H", "athletes": [ { "name": "Ethan Evans", "id": "5125875", "depth_order": 1, "injuries": [] } ] }, { "position": "PR", "athletes": [ { "name": "Kyren Williams", "id": "4430737", "depth_order": 1, "injuries": [] } ] }, { "position": "KR", "athletes": [ { "name": "Jordan Whittington", "id": "4569382", "depth_order": 1, "injuries": [] }, { "name": "Dean Connors", "id": "5082269", "depth_order": 2, "injuries": [] }, { "name": "Ronnie Rivers", "id": "4243003", "depth_order": 3, "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-24T00:22Z" } ] } ] }, { "position": "LT", "athletes": [ { "name": "Alaric Jackson", "id": "4036135", "depth_order": 1, "injuries": [] }, { "name": "David Quessenberry", "id": "15946", "depth_order": 2, "injuries": [] } ] }, { "position": "LG", "athletes": [ { "name": "Steve Avila", "id": "4362474", "depth_order": 1, "injuries": [] }, { "name": "Beaux Limmer", "id": "4567175", "depth_order": 2, "injuries": [] }, { "name": "Bill Murray", "id": "3912189", "depth_order": 3, "injuries": [] } ] }, { "position": "C", "athletes": [ { "name": "Coleman Shelton", "id": "3052180", "depth_order": 1, "injuries": [] }, { "name": "Dylan McMahon", "id": "4430155", "depth_order": 2, "injuries": [] } ] }, { "position": "RG", "athletes": [ { "name": "Kevin Dotson", "id": "3917599", "depth_order": 1, "injuries": [] }, { "name": "Justin Dedich", "id": "4360859", "depth_order": 2, "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-08-31T23:42Z" } ] } ] }, { "position": "RT", "athletes": [ { "name": "Warren McClendon Jr.", "id": "4426512", "depth_order": 1, "injuries": [] }, { "name": "Keagen Trost", "id": "4575003", "depth_order": 2, "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-08-31T23:31Z" } ] } ] } ], "retention": "Only depth identity injury fields; no markets" } ], "offensive_line_review": { "BUF": "Dawkins/Anderson/McGovern/Torrence/Brown official first line; no final game OUT/Q designation among five. Reed-Adams full practice cleared.", "LAR": "Jackson/Avila/Shelton/Dotson/McClendon official first line; no final game OUT/Q among five. Jackson rest DNP is not injury. Dedich/Trost IR weakens reserve depth; Quessenberry/Murray/Limmer/McMahon backups reflected official depth.", "incremental_conversion": null }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Buffalo nickel coverage availability", "detail": "Dee Alford first at nickel QUESTIONABLE, reserve Jordan Hancock on IR; Benford cleared at boundary does not establish nickel replacement. Rams Adams/Nacua and multiple TEs can stress interior coverage. Current nickel allocation unresolved; no invented opponent-point increment.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Buffalo interior defense rotation", "detail": "Ed Oliver OUT with Carter next at DL; Landon Jackson Q reduces other front depth. Run-fit/pressure changes can affect Rams drives, but current game rates already contain observed defense.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Rams pressure unit change", "detail": "Myles Garrett Sep17IR explicitly covers Bills. Young/Stewart rotation replaces edge work; Donald cleared for return after back issue. Ongoing Garrett loss partly represented in current baseline; Donald workload unknown. Separate from offensive -3.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Rams safety coverage availability", "detail": "Quentin Lake Q, Kinchens next in official safety depth; Watson cleared reduces boundary uncertainty but does not resolve Lake duties.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false }, { "severity": "HIGH_IF_NOT_ROBUST", "risk": "Covered receiver role and availability branches", "detail": "Palmer material-role/support-only branches, Moore available/absent branches and FergusonIR -3 must all be evaluated; Bell debut has no NFL regular-season evidence.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": "evaluate after prices" } ] }, "football_supplement": { "event_id": "401872994", "identity": { "id": "401872994", "date": "2026-10-13T00:15Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NFL", "venue": { "id": "7065", "fullName": "SoFi Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Inglewood", "state": "CA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2", "away_name": "Buffalo Bills", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "14", "home_name": "Los Angeles Rams", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "human_deductions": [ -3, -3 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.344117647058823, 22.932352941176468 ], "home_margin": 1.588235294117645, "total": 44.27647058823529, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; unresolved high nickel risk plus model/market/risk gates", "other_adjustments": [], "production_assumption": "Palmer material receiving-package sensitivity, Moore not assumed absent, Ferguson qualifying TEIR. Support-only Palmer0 and Moore absent joint endpoints mandatory.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 21.344117647058823, 25.932352941176468 ], "home_selection": [ 24.344117647058823, 22.932352941176468 ] }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 41.27647058823529, "under_selection_total": 47.27647058823529 } }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "human_deductions": [ -3, -3 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.127248517809328, 23.8443614633676 ], "home_margin": 1.7171129455582737, "total": 45.971609981176925, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; unresolved high nickel risk plus model/market/risk gates", "other_adjustments": [], "production_assumption": "Palmer material receiving-package sensitivity, Moore not assumed absent, Ferguson qualifying TEIR. Support-only Palmer0 and Moore absent joint endpoints mandatory.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 22.127248517809328, 26.8443614633676 ], "home_selection": [ 25.127248517809328, 23.8443614633676 ] }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 42.971609981176925, "under_selection_total": 48.971609981176925 } }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "human_deductions": [ -3, -3 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.10583479394665, 23.345198940536136 ], "home_margin": 1.2393641465894873, "total": 45.451033734482785, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; unresolved high nickel risk plus model/market/risk gates", "other_adjustments": [], "production_assumption": "Palmer material receiving-package sensitivity, Moore not assumed absent, Ferguson qualifying TEIR. Support-only Palmer0 and Moore absent joint endpoints mandatory.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 22.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "home_selection": [ 25.10583479394665, 23.345198940536136 ] }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 42.451033734482785, "under_selection_total": 48.451033734482785 } }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "human_deductions": [ -3, -3 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.10583479394665, 23.345198940536136 ], "home_margin": 1.2393641465894873, "total": 45.451033734482785, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; unresolved high nickel risk plus model/market/risk gates", "other_adjustments": [], "production_assumption": "Palmer material receiving-package sensitivity, Moore not assumed absent, Ferguson qualifying TEIR. Support-only Palmer0 and Moore absent joint endpoints mandatory.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 22.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "home_selection": [ 25.10583479394665, 23.345198940536136 ] }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 42.451033734482785, "under_selection_total": 48.451033734482785 } } }, "production_scenario": "Conditional Palmer material-role sensitivity plus confirmed Ferguson receiving-TE absence; Moore remains questionable. Alternatives mandatory.", "scenario_choice_by_team": [ { "team": "Buffalo Bills", "notes": "Josh Allen, James Cook, Ray Davis, Ty Johnson, Shakir, Coleman, Kincaid and Knox have no final game designation. Coleman/Davis full practice; no availability deduction. Shavers PUP sinceAug30; 2025 23targets/17games is a supporting role, current top three healthy except Moore. No separate main-WR -3." }, { "team": "Los Angeles Rams", "notes": "Stafford, Williams, Corum, Nacua, Adams, Whittington and Parkinson have no final game designation; rest DNP is not OUT. Rivers IR supporting reserve behind Williams/Corum with one current target, Caldwell reserve rookieIR: no lead/QB deduction. Dedich/Trost reserve OLIR are protection depth issues, not skill-position -3." } ], "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Buffalo nickel coverage availability", "detail": "Dee Alford first at nickel QUESTIONABLE, reserve Jordan Hancock on IR; Benford cleared at boundary does not establish nickel replacement. Rams Adams/Nacua and multiple TEs can stress interior coverage. Current nickel allocation unresolved; no invented opponent-point increment.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Buffalo interior defense rotation", "detail": "Ed Oliver OUT with Carter next at DL; Landon Jackson Q reduces other front depth. Run-fit/pressure changes can affect Rams drives, but current game rates already contain observed defense.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Rams pressure unit change", "detail": "Myles Garrett Sep17IR explicitly covers Bills. Young/Stewart rotation replaces edge work; Donald cleared for return after back issue. Ongoing Garrett loss partly represented in current baseline; Donald workload unknown. Separate from offensive -3.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Rams safety coverage availability", "detail": "Quentin Lake Q, Kinchens next in official safety depth; Watson cleared reduces boundary uncertainty but does not resolve Lake duties.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false }, { "severity": "HIGH_IF_NOT_ROBUST", "risk": "Covered receiver role and availability branches", "detail": "Palmer material-role/support-only branches, Moore available/absent branches and FergusonIR -3 must all be evaluated; Bell debut has no NFL regular-season evidence.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": "evaluate after prices" } ], "desk_findings": { "Parker Fields": "Independently screened both teams all QB/RB/mainWR/receivingTE with official source conflict resolution, practice familiarity and separate2024/25/26 opportunities.", "Gideon Marsh": "Independent baseline arithmetic PASS across all four configurations; explicit isolated/joint -3 scenarios and zero unchanged-opponent deltas. Defense and protection risks retained." }, "conditional_and_overlap_source": "football-replacement-ledger.json; include all branches and combine opposing teams independently. No automatic extra -3 for trades/defense/reserve players." }, "offensive_review": [], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams", "market": { "id": "401872994", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872994", "requested_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.510906+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.751143+00:00", "home_line": -3.0, "away_line": 3.0, "home_line_price": -120.0, "away_line_price": 100.0, "total": 54.5, "under_line": 54.5, "over_price": -115.0, "under_price": -105.0, "home_ml": -175.0, "away_ml": 145.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -3.0, "average_total": 54.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 1.588235294117645, "combined": 50.27647058823529, "spread_buffer": -1.411764705882355, "total_difference": -4.223529411764709 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 1.588235294117645, "combined": 44.27647058823529, "spread_buffer": -1.411764705882355, "total_difference": -10.223529411764709 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 1.7171129455582737, "combined": 51.971609981176925, "spread_buffer": -1.2828870544417263, "total_difference": -2.5283900188230746 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 1.7171129455582737, "combined": 45.971609981176925, "spread_buffer": -1.2828870544417263, "total_difference": -8.528390018823075 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 1.2393641465894873, "combined": 51.451033734482785, "spread_buffer": -1.7606358534105127, "total_difference": -3.0489662655172154 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 1.2393641465894873, "combined": 45.451033734482785, "spread_buffer": -1.7606358534105127, "total_difference": -9.048966265517215 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401872994", "configuration": "ON", "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_index": 0, "market": "spread", "selection_side": "away", "line": 3.0, "price": 100.0, "canonical_buffer": 1.7606358534105127, "required_buffer": 4, "minimum_branch_buffer": -1.2393641465894873, "worst_stressed_buffer": -4.239364146589487, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 19.10583479394665, 23.345198940536136 ], "buffer": -1.2393641465894873, "stressed_buffer": -4.239364146589487 }, { "score": [ 22.10583479394665, 23.345198940536136 ], "buffer": 1.7606358534105127, "stressed_buffer": -1.2393641465894873 }, { "score": [ 25.10583479394665, 23.345198940536136 ], "buffer": 4.760635853410513, "stressed_buffer": 1.7606358534105127 } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 3, "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical buffer below required floor", "At least one role/availability branch below required floor", "Required adverse test fails in at least one branch", "2 unresolved high risk(s)", "3 unresolved medium risks", "ON excludes unresolved medium risks" ], "independent_buffer_algebra": true, "pick": "Buffalo Bills +3", "matchup": "Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams", "state": "LEAN", "base_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.10583479394665, 23.345198940536136 ], "worst_applicable_buffer": -1.2393641465894873, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872994", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.510906+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.751143+00:00", "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "second_review_completed": true, "calibration": "No selected-market or exact-score probability inferred from point cushions.", "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -4.239364146589487, "worst_case": { "score": [ 19.10583479394665, 23.345198940536136 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.2393641465894873, "adverse_score": [ 19.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "stressed_buffer": -4.239364146589487 }, "scenario_count": 3, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 19.10583479394665, 23.345198940536136 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.2393641465894873, "adverse_score": [ 19.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "stressed_buffer": -4.239364146589487 }, { "score": [ 22.10583479394665, 23.345198940536136 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.7606358534105127, "adverse_score": [ 22.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "stressed_buffer": -1.2393641465894873 }, { "score": [ 25.10583479394665, 23.345198940536136 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.760635853410513, "adverse_score": [ 25.10583479394665, 26.345198940536136 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.7606358534105127 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Selected opponent +3 for every spread case, same adverse margin swing not counted twice", "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selected side evaluated across all Palmer role and Moore availability overlap endpoints; failure does not promote opposite side." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Buffalo nickel coverage availability", "detail": "Dee Alford first at nickel 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No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Utah Jazz: Nurkic foot absence and Filipowski back-surgery rehabilitation are supported by league-hosted updates; Jackson center share plus Hayes/Bamba describe replacement chain. Markkanen/Sensabaugh prior inactivity not taken as current confirmed absence. Current observed guard creation goes through George/Peterson/Collier. San Antonio Spurs: Fox/Harris/Quaintance/Malik Williams flags are retained with dates. Latest actual Castle/Harper creation and Wembanyama frontcourt reference plus Kornet/Reed/Brown reserves is conditional; no PPG subtraction for absent players. Last actual full rotations provide return branches where available.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NBA preseason rotations are conditional reference allocations, not confirmed minutes.", "reviewer": "Parent reconciliation of independent evidence" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independent arithmetic reviewed current nonfootball outputs; London remains outside comparable NBA history. Classic/Primary provisional; ON/OFF identical registered means. Opportunity scenarios do not supply a validated scoring conversion.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Delta Center; listed 2026-10-13T01:00Z. Official NBA home-team schedule confirms Oct12 opponent, venue, tip time and preseason stage. 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"team": "Utah Jazz", "player_id": "4873138", "player": "Ace Bailey", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914127", "MIN": "20", "PTS": "10", "FG": "5-10", "OREB": "2", "3PT": "0-2", "TO": "1", "FT": "0-0", "AST": "0" }, { "event_id": "401914127", "date": "2026-10-04T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Utah Jazz", "player_id": "4684793", "player": "Kyle Filipowski", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914127" }, { "event_id": "401914127", "date": "2026-10-04T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Utah Jazz", "player_id": "5105839", "player": "Brice Sensabaugh", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914127" }, { "event_id": "401914127", "date": "2026-10-04T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Utah Jazz", "player_id": "4395997", "player": "Terrell Brown Jr.", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914127" }, { "event_id": "401914127", "date": "2026-10-04T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Utah Jazz", "player_id": "4432811", "player": "Josh Green", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914127" } ], "reference_date": "2026-10-07T01:00Z", "comparison_player_ids": [ "3102530", "3133602", "4065663", "4066336", "4277919", "4277961", "4278395", "4395997", "4396963", "4397077", "4432811", "4433268", "4433618", "4433627", "4683766", "4683933", "4684682", "4684793", "4873138", "5041955", "5105839" ], "findings": "Nurkic foot absence and Filipowski back-surgery rehabilitation are supported by league-hosted updates; Jackson center share plus Hayes/Bamba describe replacement chain. Markkanen/Sensabaugh prior inactivity not taken as current confirmed absence. 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