Four configurations. Three score engines.

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401856720",
    "matchup": "Mississippi State Bulldogs at LSU Tigers",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "REPLACEMENT_OR_JOINT_ADJUSTED_FORECAST_UNESTIMATED",
      "REQUIRED_BRANCH_UNESTIMATED",
      "RETAINED_BRANCH_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR",
      "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL",
      "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK"
    ],
    "base_score": [
      25.116666666666667,
      33.21666666666667
    ],
    "adjusted_score": null,
    "required_buffer": 4,
    "selection": {
      "side": "away",
      "line": 17.5,
      "price": -110.0,
      "team": "Mississippi State Bulldogs"
    },
    "selection_side": "away",
    "line": 17.5,
    "price": -110.0,
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856720",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-17T11:49:31.325262+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-17T11:49:31.598501+00:00",
      "event_id": "401856720",
      "source_competition_id": "401856720",
      "participant_mapping": {
        "away": "344",
        "home": "99",
        "source_sides": {
          "away": "away",
          "home": "home"
        }
      },
      "market_scope": "Full game",
      "moneyline_scope": "Game winner",
      "total_units": "points",
      "home_line": -17.5,
      "away_line": 17.5,
      "home_line_price": -110.0,
      "away_line_price": -110.0,
      "total": 55.5,
      "under_line": 55.5,
      "over_price": -112.0,
      "under_price": -108.0,
      "home_ml": -850.0,
      "away_ml": 575.0,
      "draw_ml": null,
      "moneyline_complete": true,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "applicable_market_complete": true,
      "price_filter_note": "Retained prices are observations; recommendations require American price strictly better than -400 plus all sporting/activation/value gates."
    },
    "quote_index": 0,
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-17T11:49:31.325262+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-17T11:49:31.598501+00:00",
    "canonical_buffer": null,
    "minimum_branch_buffer": 1.6499999999999986,
    "worst_stressed_buffer": -1.3500000000000014,
    "all_cases": [
      {
        "branch": "Registered base / no qualifying absence branch",
        "score": [
          25.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
        ],
        "adverse_score": [
          25.116666666666667,
          36.21666666666667
        ],
        "buffer": 9.399999999999999,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 9.399999999999999,
        "stressed_buffer": 6.399999999999999,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Isolated conditional 344-5177084",
        "score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
        ],
        "case_id": "344-5177084",
        "condition": "Applies only if incumbent remains unavailable/materially limited AND retains a covered main/primary/material role.",
        "adverse_score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          36.21666666666667
        ],
        "buffer": 6.399999999999999,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.399999999999999,
        "stressed_buffer": 3.3999999999999986,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Isolated conditional 344-5220197",
        "score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
        ],
        "case_id": "344-5220197",
        "condition": "Applies only if incumbent remains unavailable/materially limited AND retains a covered main/primary/material role.",
        "adverse_score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          36.21666666666667
        ],
        "buffer": 6.399999999999999,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.399999999999999,
        "stressed_buffer": 3.3999999999999986,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Isolated conditional 99-5079420",
        "score": [
          25.116666666666667,
          30.21666666666667
        ],
        "case_id": "99-5079420",
        "condition": "Official unavailable established covered role.",
        "adverse_score": [
          25.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
        ],
        "buffer": 12.399999999999999,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 12.399999999999999,
        "stressed_buffer": 9.399999999999999,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
        "score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          30.21666666666667
        ],
        "adverse_score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
        ],
        "buffer": 9.399999999999999,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 9.399999999999999,
        "stressed_buffer": 6.399999999999999,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
        "score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
        ],
        "adverse_score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          36.21666666666667
        ],
        "buffer": 6.399999999999999,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.399999999999999,
        "stressed_buffer": 3.3999999999999986,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
        "score": [
          25.116666666666667,
          30.21666666666667
        ],
        "adverse_score": [
          25.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
        ],
        "buffer": 12.399999999999999,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 12.399999999999999,
        "stressed_buffer": 9.399999999999999,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
        "score": [
          25.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
        ],
        "adverse_score": [
          25.116666666666667,
          36.21666666666667
        ],
        "buffer": 9.399999999999999,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 9.399999999999999,
        "stressed_buffer": 6.399999999999999,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Registered base / no qualifying absence branch",
        "score": [
          25.116666666666667,
          37.96666666666667
        ],
        "component_reference": [
          25.116666666666667,
          37.96666666666667
        ],
        "personnel_offset": [
          0.0,
          0.0
        ],
        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          25.116666666666667,
          40.96666666666667
        ],
        "buffer": 4.649999999999999,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.649999999999999,
        "stressed_buffer": 1.6499999999999986,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Isolated conditional 344-5177084",
        "score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          37.96666666666667
        ],
        "component_reference": [
          25.116666666666667,
          37.96666666666667
        ],
        "personnel_offset": [
          -3.0,
          0.0
        ],
        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          40.96666666666667
        ],
        "buffer": 1.6499999999999986,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.6499999999999986,
        "stressed_buffer": -1.3500000000000014,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Isolated conditional 344-5220197",
        "score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          37.96666666666667
        ],
        "component_reference": [
          25.116666666666667,
          37.96666666666667
        ],
        "personnel_offset": [
          -3.0,
          0.0
        ],
        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          40.96666666666667
        ],
        "buffer": 1.6499999999999986,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.6499999999999986,
        "stressed_buffer": -1.3500000000000014,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Isolated conditional 99-5079420",
        "score": [
          25.116666666666667,
          34.96666666666667
        ],
        "component_reference": [
          25.116666666666667,
          37.96666666666667
        ],
        "personnel_offset": [
          0.0,
          -3.0
        ],
        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          25.116666666666667,
          37.96666666666667
        ],
        "buffer": 7.649999999999999,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.649999999999999,
        "stressed_buffer": 4.649999999999999,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
        "score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          34.96666666666667
        ],
        "component_reference": [
          25.116666666666667,
          37.96666666666667
        ],
        "personnel_offset": [
          -3.0,
          -3.0
        ],
        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          37.96666666666667
        ],
        "buffer": 4.649999999999999,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.649999999999999,
        "stressed_buffer": 1.6499999999999986,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
        "score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          37.96666666666667
        ],
        "component_reference": [
          25.116666666666667,
          37.96666666666667
        ],
        "personnel_offset": [
          -3.0,
          0.0
        ],
        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          40.96666666666667
        ],
        "buffer": 1.6499999999999986,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.6499999999999986,
        "stressed_buffer": -1.3500000000000014,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
        "score": [
          25.116666666666667,
          34.96666666666667
        ],
        "component_reference": [
          25.116666666666667,
          37.96666666666667
        ],
        "personnel_offset": [
          0.0,
          -3.0
        ],
        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          25.116666666666667,
          37.96666666666667
        ],
        "buffer": 7.649999999999999,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.649999999999999,
        "stressed_buffer": 4.649999999999999,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
        "score": [
          25.116666666666667,
          37.96666666666667
        ],
        "component_reference": [
          25.116666666666667,
          37.96666666666667
        ],
        "personnel_offset": [
          0.0,
          0.0
        ],
        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          25.116666666666667,
          40.96666666666667
        ],
        "buffer": 4.649999999999999,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.649999999999999,
        "stressed_buffer": 1.6499999999999986,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      }
    ],
    "frozen_model_checks": [
      {
        "model": "Classic",
        "score": null,
        "base_score": [
          25.640151515151512,
          31.02651515151515
        ],
        "buffer": null,
        "stressed_buffer": null,
        "interpretation": "Comparator only; no new blended forecast or invented coefficient."
      },
      {
        "model": "Primary",
        "score": null,
        "base_score": [
          22.1036419828649,
          36.04425340012856
        ],
        "buffer": null,
        "stressed_buffer": null,
        "interpretation": "Comparator only; no new blended forecast or invented coefficient."
      }
    ],
    "excluded_dormant_or_role_conditional_sensitivities": [],
    "unestimated_branches": [
      {
        "branch": "Frozen adjusted conditional reference",
        "score": null
      },
      {
        "branch": "away joint replacement overlap",
        "score": null
      }
    ],
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "team": "Mississippi State Bulldogs",
        "mechanism": "Official MSU/LSU previews confirm Taylor lead QB, Bothwell lead RB. Conditional Puckett passwork and Wilson/Gayten rushwork, separate offense pathways; no automatic penalty for probable Evans or nonmain Williams.",
        "conditional_scenarios": 2,
        "resolved": false,
        "kind": "availability",
        "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "team": "LSU Tigers",
        "mechanism": "Green14 catches is receiving TE leader versus Grace1; redistribution also reaches Watkins/Harris/Wilson. Remaining TE precise snaps unknown; same-team receiving participation supports current familiarity, no protection premium.",
        "conditional_scenarios": 1,
        "resolved": false,
        "kind": "availability",
        "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true
      }
    ],
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-17T11:48:57.589105+00:00",
    "publication_status": "CANDIDATE ONLY; current recheck and complete package QA required",
    "stress": {
      "ordinary_adverse_points": 3,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "survives": false,
      "component_stress_is_additional_personnel_free_reference": true,
      "worst": {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Isolated conditional 344-5177084",
        "score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          37.96666666666667
        ],
        "component_reference": [
          25.116666666666667,
          37.96666666666667
        ],
        "personnel_offset": [
          -3.0,
          0.0
        ],
        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          40.96666666666667
        ],
        "buffer": 1.6499999999999986,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.6499999999999986,
        "stressed_buffer": -1.3500000000000014,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": null
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 4,
      "base": 9.399999999999999,
      "production_adjusted": null,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": 1.6499999999999986
    },
    "unresolved_high": 2,
    "unresolved_medium": 0,
    "one_tier_downgrade": false,
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "team": "Mississippi State Bulldogs",
          "mechanism": "Official MSU/LSU previews confirm Taylor lead QB, Bothwell lead RB. Conditional Puckett passwork and Wilson/Gayten rushwork, separate offense pathways; no automatic penalty for probable Evans or nonmain Williams.",
          "conditional_scenarios": 2,
          "resolved": false,
          "kind": "availability",
          "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true
        },
        {
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "team": "LSU Tigers",
          "mechanism": "Green14 catches is receiving TE leader versus Grace1; redistribution also reaches Watkins/Harris/Wilson. Remaining TE precise snaps unknown; same-team receiving participation supports current familiarity, no protection premium.",
          "conditional_scenarios": 1,
          "resolved": false,
          "kind": "availability",
          "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 2,
      "unresolved_medium": 0,
      "one_tier_downgrade": false
    }
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401856720",
    "matchup": "Mississippi State Bulldogs at LSU Tigers",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "REPLACEMENT_OR_JOINT_ADJUSTED_FORECAST_UNESTIMATED",
      "REQUIRED_BRANCH_UNESTIMATED",
      "RETAINED_BRANCH_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR",
      "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL",
      "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK"
    ],
    "base_score": [
      25.116666666666667,
      33.21666666666667
    ],
    "adjusted_score": null,
    "required_buffer": 5,
    "selection": {
      "side": "over",
      "line": 55.5,
      "price": -112.0
    },
    "selection_side": "over",
    "line": 55.5,
    "price": -112.0,
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856720",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-17T11:49:31.325262+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-17T11:49:31.598501+00:00",
      "event_id": "401856720",
      "source_competition_id": "401856720",
      "participant_mapping": {
        "away": "344",
        "home": "99",
        "source_sides": {
          "away": "away",
          "home": "home"
        }
      },
      "market_scope": "Full game",
      "moneyline_scope": "Game winner",
      "total_units": "points",
      "home_line": -17.5,
      "away_line": 17.5,
      "home_line_price": -110.0,
      "away_line_price": -110.0,
      "total": 55.5,
      "under_line": 55.5,
      "over_price": -112.0,
      "under_price": -108.0,
      "home_ml": -850.0,
      "away_ml": 575.0,
      "draw_ml": null,
      "moneyline_complete": true,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "applicable_market_complete": true,
      "price_filter_note": "Retained prices are observations; recommendations require American price strictly better than -400 plus all sporting/activation/value gates."
    },
    "quote_index": 0,
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-17T11:49:31.325262+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-17T11:49:31.598501+00:00",
    "canonical_buffer": null,
    "minimum_branch_buffer": -3.1666666666666643,
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    "all_cases": [
      {
        "branch": "Registered base / no qualifying absence branch",
        "score": [
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        "adverse_score": [
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        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.8333333333333357,
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      },
      {
        "branch": "Isolated conditional 344-5177084",
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        "case_id": "344-5177084",
        "condition": "Applies only if incumbent remains unavailable/materially limited AND retains a covered main/primary/material role.",
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        "buffer": -0.1666666666666643,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.1666666666666643,
        "stressed_buffer": -3.1666666666666643,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Isolated conditional 344-5220197",
        "score": [
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          33.21666666666667
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        "case_id": "344-5220197",
        "condition": "Applies only if incumbent remains unavailable/materially limited AND retains a covered main/primary/material role.",
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        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.1666666666666643,
        "stressed_buffer": -3.1666666666666643,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Isolated conditional 99-5079420",
        "score": [
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          30.21666666666667
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        "case_id": "99-5079420",
        "condition": "Official unavailable established covered role.",
        "adverse_score": [
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        "buffer": -0.1666666666666643,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.1666666666666643,
        "stressed_buffer": -3.1666666666666643,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
        "score": [
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        "adverse_score": [
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        "buffer": -3.1666666666666643,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -3.1666666666666643,
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        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
        "score": [
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        "adverse_score": [
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        "buffer": -0.1666666666666643,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.1666666666666643,
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        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
        "score": [
          25.116666666666667,
          30.21666666666667
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        "adverse_score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          30.21666666666667
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        "buffer": -0.1666666666666643,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.1666666666666643,
        "stressed_buffer": -3.1666666666666643,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
        "score": [
          25.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
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        "adverse_score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
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        "buffer": 2.8333333333333357,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.8333333333333357,
        "stressed_buffer": -0.1666666666666643,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Registered base / no qualifying absence branch",
        "score": [
          25.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
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        "component_reference": [
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        "personnel_offset": [
          0.0,
          0.0
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        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
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        "buffer": 2.8333333333333357,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.8333333333333357,
        "stressed_buffer": -0.1666666666666643,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Isolated conditional 344-5177084",
        "score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
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        "component_reference": [
          25.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
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        "personnel_offset": [
          -3.0,
          0.0
        ],
        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          19.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
        ],
        "buffer": -0.1666666666666643,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.1666666666666643,
        "stressed_buffer": -3.1666666666666643,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Isolated conditional 344-5220197",
        "score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
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        "component_reference": [
          25.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
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        "personnel_offset": [
          -3.0,
          0.0
        ],
        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          19.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
        ],
        "buffer": -0.1666666666666643,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.1666666666666643,
        "stressed_buffer": -3.1666666666666643,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Isolated conditional 99-5079420",
        "score": [
          25.116666666666667,
          30.21666666666667
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        "component_reference": [
          25.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
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        "personnel_offset": [
          0.0,
          -3.0
        ],
        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          30.21666666666667
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        "buffer": -0.1666666666666643,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.1666666666666643,
        "stressed_buffer": -3.1666666666666643,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
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      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
        "score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          30.21666666666667
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          25.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
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        "personnel_offset": [
          -3.0,
          -3.0
        ],
        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          19.116666666666667,
          30.21666666666667
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        "buffer": -3.1666666666666643,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -3.1666666666666643,
        "stressed_buffer": -6.166666666666664,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
        "score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
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        "component_reference": [
          25.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
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        "personnel_offset": [
          -3.0,
          0.0
        ],
        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          19.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
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        "buffer": -0.1666666666666643,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.1666666666666643,
        "stressed_buffer": -3.1666666666666643,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
        "score": [
          25.116666666666667,
          30.21666666666667
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        "component_reference": [
          25.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
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        "personnel_offset": [
          0.0,
          -3.0
        ],
        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          30.21666666666667
        ],
        "buffer": -0.1666666666666643,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.1666666666666643,
        "stressed_buffer": -3.1666666666666643,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
        "score": [
          25.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
        ],
        "component_reference": [
          25.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
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        "personnel_offset": [
          0.0,
          0.0
        ],
        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
        ],
        "buffer": 2.8333333333333357,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.8333333333333357,
        "stressed_buffer": -0.1666666666666643,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      }
    ],
    "frozen_model_checks": [
      {
        "model": "Classic",
        "score": null,
        "base_score": [
          25.640151515151512,
          31.02651515151515
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        "buffer": null,
        "stressed_buffer": null,
        "interpretation": "Comparator only; no new blended forecast or invented coefficient."
      },
      {
        "model": "Primary",
        "score": null,
        "base_score": [
          22.1036419828649,
          36.04425340012856
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        "buffer": null,
        "stressed_buffer": null,
        "interpretation": "Comparator only; no new blended forecast or invented coefficient."
      }
    ],
    "excluded_dormant_or_role_conditional_sensitivities": [],
    "unestimated_branches": [
      {
        "branch": "Frozen adjusted conditional reference",
        "score": null
      },
      {
        "branch": "away joint replacement overlap",
        "score": null
      }
    ],
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "team": "Mississippi State Bulldogs",
        "mechanism": "Official MSU/LSU previews confirm Taylor lead QB, Bothwell lead RB. Conditional Puckett passwork and Wilson/Gayten rushwork, separate offense pathways; no automatic penalty for probable Evans or nonmain Williams.",
        "conditional_scenarios": 2,
        "resolved": false,
        "kind": "availability",
        "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "team": "LSU Tigers",
        "mechanism": "Green14 catches is receiving TE leader versus Grace1; redistribution also reaches Watkins/Harris/Wilson. Remaining TE precise snaps unknown; same-team receiving participation supports current familiarity, no protection premium.",
        "conditional_scenarios": 1,
        "resolved": false,
        "kind": "availability",
        "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true
      }
    ],
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-17T11:48:57.589105+00:00",
    "publication_status": "CANDIDATE ONLY; current recheck and complete package QA required",
    "stress": {
      "ordinary_adverse_points": 3,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "survives": false,
      "component_stress_is_additional_personnel_free_reference": true,
      "worst": {
        "branch": "Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
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        "adverse_score": [
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      "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": null
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    "buffer": {
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      "base": 2.8333333333333357,
      "production_adjusted": null,
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    "unresolved_high": 2,
    "unresolved_medium": 0,
    "one_tier_downgrade": false,
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "team": "Mississippi State Bulldogs",
          "mechanism": "Official MSU/LSU previews confirm Taylor lead QB, Bothwell lead RB. Conditional Puckett passwork and Wilson/Gayten rushwork, separate offense pathways; no automatic penalty for probable Evans or nonmain Williams.",
          "conditional_scenarios": 2,
          "resolved": false,
          "kind": "availability",
          "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true
        },
        {
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "team": "LSU Tigers",
          "mechanism": "Green14 catches is receiving TE leader versus Grace1; redistribution also reaches Watkins/Harris/Wilson. Remaining TE precise snaps unknown; same-team receiving participation supports current familiarity, no protection premium.",
          "conditional_scenarios": 1,
          "resolved": false,
          "kind": "availability",
          "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true
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      ],
      "unresolved_high": 2,
      "unresolved_medium": 0,
      "one_tier_downgrade": false
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  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401856720",
    "matchup": "Mississippi State Bulldogs at LSU Tigers",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "REPLACEMENT_OR_JOINT_ADJUSTED_FORECAST_UNESTIMATED",
      "REQUIRED_BRANCH_UNESTIMATED",
      "RETAINED_BRANCH_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR",
      "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL",
      "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK"
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    "base_score": [
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    "adjusted_score": null,
    "required_buffer": 3,
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      "line": 17.5,
      "price": -110.0,
      "team": "Mississippi State Bulldogs"
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    "selection_side": "away",
    "line": 17.5,
    "price": -110.0,
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856720",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-17T11:49:31.325262+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-17T11:49:31.598501+00:00",
      "event_id": "401856720",
      "source_competition_id": "401856720",
      "participant_mapping": {
        "away": "344",
        "home": "99",
        "source_sides": {
          "away": "away",
          "home": "home"
        }
      },
      "market_scope": "Full game",
      "moneyline_scope": "Game winner",
      "total_units": "points",
      "home_line": -17.5,
      "away_line": 17.5,
      "home_line_price": -110.0,
      "away_line_price": -110.0,
      "total": 55.5,
      "under_line": 55.5,
      "over_price": -112.0,
      "under_price": -108.0,
      "home_ml": -850.0,
      "away_ml": 575.0,
      "draw_ml": null,
      "moneyline_complete": true,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "applicable_market_complete": true,
      "price_filter_note": "Retained prices are observations; recommendations require American price strictly better than -400 plus all sporting/activation/value gates."
    },
    "quote_index": 0,
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-17T11:49:31.325262+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-17T11:49:31.598501+00:00",
    "canonical_buffer": null,
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    "all_cases": [
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        "score": [
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        "adverse_score": [
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        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 9.399999999999999,
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      {
        "branch": "Isolated conditional 344-5177084",
        "score": [
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        "case_id": "344-5177084",
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        "adverse_score": [
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        "buffer": 6.399999999999999,
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      {
        "branch": "Isolated conditional 344-5220197",
        "score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
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        "case_id": "344-5220197",
        "condition": "Applies only if incumbent remains unavailable/materially limited AND retains a covered main/primary/material role.",
        "adverse_score": [
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        "buffer": 6.399999999999999,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.399999999999999,
        "stressed_buffer": 3.3999999999999986,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Isolated conditional 99-5079420",
        "score": [
          25.116666666666667,
          30.21666666666667
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        "case_id": "99-5079420",
        "condition": "Official unavailable established covered role.",
        "adverse_score": [
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        "buffer": 12.399999999999999,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 12.399999999999999,
        "stressed_buffer": 9.399999999999999,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
        "score": [
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        "adverse_score": [
          22.116666666666667,
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        "buffer": 9.399999999999999,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 9.399999999999999,
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        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
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      {
        "branch": "Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
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        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.399999999999999,
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        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
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      },
      {
        "branch": "Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
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      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Registered base / no qualifying absence branch",
        "score": [
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        "component_reference": [
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        "personnel_offset": [
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        ],
        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
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        "buffer": 4.649999999999999,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.649999999999999,
        "stressed_buffer": 1.6499999999999986,
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      },
      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Isolated conditional 344-5177084",
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          37.96666666666667
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        "personnel_offset": [
          -3.0,
          0.0
        ],
        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
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          40.96666666666667
        ],
        "buffer": 1.6499999999999986,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.6499999999999986,
        "stressed_buffer": -1.3500000000000014,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Isolated conditional 344-5220197",
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          37.96666666666667
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          25.116666666666667,
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        "personnel_offset": [
          -3.0,
          0.0
        ],
        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          40.96666666666667
        ],
        "buffer": 1.6499999999999986,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.6499999999999986,
        "stressed_buffer": -1.3500000000000014,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Isolated conditional 99-5079420",
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          34.96666666666667
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        "component_reference": [
          25.116666666666667,
          37.96666666666667
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        "personnel_offset": [
          0.0,
          -3.0
        ],
        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          25.116666666666667,
          37.96666666666667
        ],
        "buffer": 7.649999999999999,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.649999999999999,
        "stressed_buffer": 4.649999999999999,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
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          34.96666666666667
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          37.96666666666667
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        "personnel_offset": [
          -3.0,
          -3.0
        ],
        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          37.96666666666667
        ],
        "buffer": 4.649999999999999,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.649999999999999,
        "stressed_buffer": 1.6499999999999986,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
        "score": [
          22.116666666666667,
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        "personnel_offset": [
          -3.0,
          0.0
        ],
        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          40.96666666666667
        ],
        "buffer": 1.6499999999999986,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.6499999999999986,
        "stressed_buffer": -1.3500000000000014,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
        "score": [
          25.116666666666667,
          34.96666666666667
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        "component_reference": [
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        "personnel_offset": [
          0.0,
          -3.0
        ],
        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          25.116666666666667,
          37.96666666666667
        ],
        "buffer": 7.649999999999999,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.649999999999999,
        "stressed_buffer": 4.649999999999999,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
        "score": [
          25.116666666666667,
          37.96666666666667
        ],
        "component_reference": [
          25.116666666666667,
          37.96666666666667
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        "personnel_offset": [
          0.0,
          0.0
        ],
        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          25.116666666666667,
          40.96666666666667
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        "buffer": 4.649999999999999,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.649999999999999,
        "stressed_buffer": 1.6499999999999986,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      }
    ],
    "frozen_model_checks": [
      {
        "model": "Classic",
        "score": null,
        "base_score": [
          25.640151515151512,
          31.02651515151515
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        "buffer": null,
        "stressed_buffer": null,
        "interpretation": "Comparator only; no new blended forecast or invented coefficient."
      },
      {
        "model": "Primary",
        "score": null,
        "base_score": [
          22.1036419828649,
          36.04425340012856
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        "buffer": null,
        "stressed_buffer": null,
        "interpretation": "Comparator only; no new blended forecast or invented coefficient."
      }
    ],
    "excluded_dormant_or_role_conditional_sensitivities": [],
    "unestimated_branches": [
      {
        "branch": "Frozen adjusted conditional reference",
        "score": null
      },
      {
        "branch": "away joint replacement overlap",
        "score": null
      }
    ],
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "team": "Mississippi State Bulldogs",
        "mechanism": "Official MSU/LSU previews confirm Taylor lead QB, Bothwell lead RB. Conditional Puckett passwork and Wilson/Gayten rushwork, separate offense pathways; no automatic penalty for probable Evans or nonmain Williams.",
        "conditional_scenarios": 2,
        "resolved": false,
        "kind": "availability",
        "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "team": "LSU Tigers",
        "mechanism": "Green14 catches is receiving TE leader versus Grace1; redistribution also reaches Watkins/Harris/Wilson. Remaining TE precise snaps unknown; same-team receiving participation supports current familiarity, no protection premium.",
        "conditional_scenarios": 1,
        "resolved": false,
        "kind": "availability",
        "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true
      }
    ],
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-17T11:48:57.589105+00:00",
    "publication_status": "CANDIDATE ONLY; current recheck and complete package QA required",
    "stress": {
      "ordinary_adverse_points": 3,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "survives": false,
      "component_stress_is_additional_personnel_free_reference": true,
      "worst": {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Isolated conditional 344-5177084",
        "score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          37.96666666666667
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        "component_reference": [
          25.116666666666667,
          37.96666666666667
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        "personnel_offset": [
          -3.0,
          0.0
        ],
        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          40.96666666666667
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        "buffer": 1.6499999999999986,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.6499999999999986,
        "stressed_buffer": -1.3500000000000014,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
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      "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": null
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 3,
      "base": 9.399999999999999,
      "production_adjusted": null,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": 1.6499999999999986
    },
    "unresolved_high": 2,
    "unresolved_medium": 0,
    "one_tier_downgrade": false,
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "team": "Mississippi State Bulldogs",
          "mechanism": "Official MSU/LSU previews confirm Taylor lead QB, Bothwell lead RB. Conditional Puckett passwork and Wilson/Gayten rushwork, separate offense pathways; no automatic penalty for probable Evans or nonmain Williams.",
          "conditional_scenarios": 2,
          "resolved": false,
          "kind": "availability",
          "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true
        },
        {
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "team": "LSU Tigers",
          "mechanism": "Green14 catches is receiving TE leader versus Grace1; redistribution also reaches Watkins/Harris/Wilson. Remaining TE precise snaps unknown; same-team receiving participation supports current familiarity, no protection premium.",
          "conditional_scenarios": 1,
          "resolved": false,
          "kind": "availability",
          "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 2,
      "unresolved_medium": 0,
      "one_tier_downgrade": false
    }
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401856720",
    "matchup": "Mississippi State Bulldogs at LSU Tigers",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "REPLACEMENT_OR_JOINT_ADJUSTED_FORECAST_UNESTIMATED",
      "REQUIRED_BRANCH_UNESTIMATED",
      "RETAINED_BRANCH_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR",
      "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL",
      "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK"
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    "base_score": [
      25.116666666666667,
      33.21666666666667
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    "adjusted_score": null,
    "required_buffer": 4,
    "selection": {
      "side": "over",
      "line": 55.5,
      "price": -112.0
    },
    "selection_side": "over",
    "line": 55.5,
    "price": -112.0,
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856720",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-17T11:49:31.325262+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-17T11:49:31.598501+00:00",
      "event_id": "401856720",
      "source_competition_id": "401856720",
      "participant_mapping": {
        "away": "344",
        "home": "99",
        "source_sides": {
          "away": "away",
          "home": "home"
        }
      },
      "market_scope": "Full game",
      "moneyline_scope": "Game winner",
      "total_units": "points",
      "home_line": -17.5,
      "away_line": 17.5,
      "home_line_price": -110.0,
      "away_line_price": -110.0,
      "total": 55.5,
      "under_line": 55.5,
      "over_price": -112.0,
      "under_price": -108.0,
      "home_ml": -850.0,
      "away_ml": 575.0,
      "draw_ml": null,
      "moneyline_complete": true,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "applicable_market_complete": true,
      "price_filter_note": "Retained prices are observations; recommendations require American price strictly better than -400 plus all sporting/activation/value gates."
    },
    "quote_index": 0,
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-17T11:49:31.325262+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-17T11:49:31.598501+00:00",
    "canonical_buffer": null,
    "minimum_branch_buffer": -3.1666666666666643,
    "worst_stressed_buffer": -6.166666666666664,
    "all_cases": [
      {
        "branch": "Registered base / no qualifying absence branch",
        "score": [
          25.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
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        "adverse_score": [
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        "buffer": 2.8333333333333357,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.8333333333333357,
        "stressed_buffer": -0.1666666666666643,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Isolated conditional 344-5177084",
        "score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
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        "case_id": "344-5177084",
        "condition": "Applies only if incumbent remains unavailable/materially limited AND retains a covered main/primary/material role.",
        "adverse_score": [
          19.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
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        "buffer": -0.1666666666666643,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.1666666666666643,
        "stressed_buffer": -3.1666666666666643,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Isolated conditional 344-5220197",
        "score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
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        "case_id": "344-5220197",
        "condition": "Applies only if incumbent remains unavailable/materially limited AND retains a covered main/primary/material role.",
        "adverse_score": [
          19.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
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        "buffer": -0.1666666666666643,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.1666666666666643,
        "stressed_buffer": -3.1666666666666643,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Isolated conditional 99-5079420",
        "score": [
          25.116666666666667,
          30.21666666666667
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        "case_id": "99-5079420",
        "condition": "Official unavailable established covered role.",
        "adverse_score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          30.21666666666667
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        "buffer": -0.1666666666666643,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.1666666666666643,
        "stressed_buffer": -3.1666666666666643,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
        "score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          30.21666666666667
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        "adverse_score": [
          19.116666666666667,
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        "buffer": -3.1666666666666643,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -3.1666666666666643,
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        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
        "score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
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        "adverse_score": [
          19.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
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        "buffer": -0.1666666666666643,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.1666666666666643,
        "stressed_buffer": -3.1666666666666643,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
        "score": [
          25.116666666666667,
          30.21666666666667
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        "adverse_score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          30.21666666666667
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        "buffer": -0.1666666666666643,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.1666666666666643,
        "stressed_buffer": -3.1666666666666643,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
        "score": [
          25.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
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        "adverse_score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
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        "buffer": 2.8333333333333357,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.8333333333333357,
        "stressed_buffer": -0.1666666666666643,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Registered base / no qualifying absence branch",
        "score": [
          25.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
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        "component_reference": [
          25.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
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        "personnel_offset": [
          0.0,
          0.0
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        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
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        "buffer": 2.8333333333333357,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.8333333333333357,
        "stressed_buffer": -0.1666666666666643,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Isolated conditional 344-5177084",
        "score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
        ],
        "component_reference": [
          25.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
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        "personnel_offset": [
          -3.0,
          0.0
        ],
        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          19.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
        ],
        "buffer": -0.1666666666666643,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.1666666666666643,
        "stressed_buffer": -3.1666666666666643,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Isolated conditional 344-5220197",
        "score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
        ],
        "component_reference": [
          25.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
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        "personnel_offset": [
          -3.0,
          0.0
        ],
        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          19.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
        ],
        "buffer": -0.1666666666666643,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.1666666666666643,
        "stressed_buffer": -3.1666666666666643,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Isolated conditional 99-5079420",
        "score": [
          25.116666666666667,
          30.21666666666667
        ],
        "component_reference": [
          25.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
        ],
        "personnel_offset": [
          0.0,
          -3.0
        ],
        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          30.21666666666667
        ],
        "buffer": -0.1666666666666643,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.1666666666666643,
        "stressed_buffer": -3.1666666666666643,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
        "score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          30.21666666666667
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        "component_reference": [
          25.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
        ],
        "personnel_offset": [
          -3.0,
          -3.0
        ],
        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          19.116666666666667,
          30.21666666666667
        ],
        "buffer": -3.1666666666666643,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -3.1666666666666643,
        "stressed_buffer": -6.166666666666664,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
        "score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
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        "component_reference": [
          25.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
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        "personnel_offset": [
          -3.0,
          0.0
        ],
        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          19.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
        ],
        "buffer": -0.1666666666666643,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.1666666666666643,
        "stressed_buffer": -3.1666666666666643,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
        "score": [
          25.116666666666667,
          30.21666666666667
        ],
        "component_reference": [
          25.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
        ],
        "personnel_offset": [
          0.0,
          -3.0
        ],
        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          30.21666666666667
        ],
        "buffer": -0.1666666666666643,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.1666666666666643,
        "stressed_buffer": -3.1666666666666643,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
        "score": [
          25.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
        ],
        "component_reference": [
          25.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
        ],
        "personnel_offset": [
          0.0,
          0.0
        ],
        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          33.21666666666667
        ],
        "buffer": 2.8333333333333357,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.8333333333333357,
        "stressed_buffer": -0.1666666666666643,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      }
    ],
    "frozen_model_checks": [
      {
        "model": "Classic",
        "score": null,
        "base_score": [
          25.640151515151512,
          31.02651515151515
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        "buffer": null,
        "stressed_buffer": null,
        "interpretation": "Comparator only; no new blended forecast or invented coefficient."
      },
      {
        "model": "Primary",
        "score": null,
        "base_score": [
          22.1036419828649,
          36.04425340012856
        ],
        "buffer": null,
        "stressed_buffer": null,
        "interpretation": "Comparator only; no new blended forecast or invented coefficient."
      }
    ],
    "excluded_dormant_or_role_conditional_sensitivities": [],
    "unestimated_branches": [
      {
        "branch": "Frozen adjusted conditional reference",
        "score": null
      },
      {
        "branch": "away joint replacement overlap",
        "score": null
      }
    ],
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "team": "Mississippi State Bulldogs",
        "mechanism": "Official MSU/LSU previews confirm Taylor lead QB, Bothwell lead RB. Conditional Puckett passwork and Wilson/Gayten rushwork, separate offense pathways; no automatic penalty for probable Evans or nonmain Williams.",
        "conditional_scenarios": 2,
        "resolved": false,
        "kind": "availability",
        "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "team": "LSU Tigers",
        "mechanism": "Green14 catches is receiving TE leader versus Grace1; redistribution also reaches Watkins/Harris/Wilson. Remaining TE precise snaps unknown; same-team receiving participation supports current familiarity, no protection premium.",
        "conditional_scenarios": 1,
        "resolved": false,
        "kind": "availability",
        "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true
      }
    ],
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-17T11:48:57.589105+00:00",
    "publication_status": "CANDIDATE ONLY; current recheck and complete package QA required",
    "stress": {
      "ordinary_adverse_points": 3,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "survives": false,
      "component_stress_is_additional_personnel_free_reference": true,
      "worst": {
        "branch": "Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
        "score": [
          22.116666666666667,
          30.21666666666667
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        "adverse_score": [
          19.116666666666667,
          30.21666666666667
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        "buffer": -3.1666666666666643,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -3.1666666666666643,
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        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": null
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 4,
      "base": 2.8333333333333357,
      "production_adjusted": null,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": -3.1666666666666643
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    "unresolved_high": 2,
    "unresolved_medium": 0,
    "one_tier_downgrade": false,
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "team": "Mississippi State Bulldogs",
          "mechanism": "Official MSU/LSU previews confirm Taylor lead QB, Bothwell lead RB. Conditional Puckett passwork and Wilson/Gayten rushwork, separate offense pathways; no automatic penalty for probable Evans or nonmain Williams.",
          "conditional_scenarios": 2,
          "resolved": false,
          "kind": "availability",
          "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true
        },
        {
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "team": "LSU Tigers",
          "mechanism": "Green14 catches is receiving TE leader versus Grace1; redistribution also reaches Watkins/Harris/Wilson. Remaining TE precise snaps unknown; same-team receiving participation supports current familiarity, no protection premium.",
          "conditional_scenarios": 1,
          "resolved": false,
          "kind": "availability",
          "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 2,
      "unresolved_medium": 0,
      "one_tier_downgrade": false
    }
  }
}

Classic

Conditional joint Unavailable

• Kamario Taylor: Applies only if incumbent remains unavailable/materially limited AND retains a covered main/primary/material role.; isolated 22.5 / 31.0; other team production Unavailable
• Fluff Bothwell: Applies only if incumbent remains unavailable/materially limited AND retains a covered main/primary/material role.; isolated 22.5 / 31.0; other team production Unavailable
• Trey'Dez Green: Official unavailable established covered role.; isolated 25.5 / 28.0; other team production Unavailable

Primary

Conditional joint Unavailable

• Kamario Taylor: Applies only if incumbent remains unavailable/materially limited AND retains a covered main/primary/material role.; isolated 19.0 / 36.0; other team production Unavailable
• Fluff Bothwell: Applies only if incumbent remains unavailable/materially limited AND retains a covered main/primary/material role.; isolated 19.0 / 36.0; other team production Unavailable
• Trey'Dez Green: Official unavailable established covered role.; isolated 22.0 / 33.0; other team production Unavailable

Tighten Up Conservative ON

Conditional joint Unavailable

• Kamario Taylor: Applies only if incumbent remains unavailable/materially limited AND retains a covered main/primary/material role.; isolated 22.0 / 33.0; other team production Unavailable
• Fluff Bothwell: Applies only if incumbent remains unavailable/materially limited AND retains a covered main/primary/material role.; isolated 22.0 / 33.0; other team production Unavailable
• Trey'Dez Green: Official unavailable established covered role.; isolated 25.0 / 30.0; other team production Unavailable

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

Conditional joint Unavailable

• Kamario Taylor: Applies only if incumbent remains unavailable/materially limited AND retains a covered main/primary/material role.; isolated 22.0 / 33.0; other team production Unavailable
• Fluff Bothwell: Applies only if incumbent remains unavailable/materially limited AND retains a covered main/primary/material role.; isolated 22.0 / 33.0; other team production Unavailable
• Trey'Dez Green: Official unavailable established covered role.; isolated 25.0 / 30.0; other team production Unavailable

• https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/LIX/25,109/forecast/hourly
• https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/few?size=small
• https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/skc?size=small
• https://api.weather.gov/points/30.4433,-91.1875
• https://app.hdintelligence.com/api/get-publish-public
• https://geocoding-api.open-meteo.com/v1/search?name=Baton+Rouge&count=20&countryCode=US&language=en&format=json
• https://hailstate.com/news/2026/10/13/football-statetosundays-week-5-update
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• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5079482/stats
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Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401856724",
    "matchup": "Florida Gators at Texas Longhorns",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "REPLACEMENT_OR_JOINT_ADJUSTED_FORECAST_UNESTIMATED",
      "REQUIRED_BRANCH_UNESTIMATED",
      "RETAINED_BRANCH_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR",
      "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL",
      "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK"
    ],
    "base_score": [
      23.251666666666665,
      31.494166666666665
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    "adjusted_score": null,
    "required_buffer": 4,
    "selection": {
      "side": "away",
      "line": 11.5,
      "price": -112.0,
      "team": "Florida Gators"
    },
    "selection_side": "away",
    "line": 11.5,
    "price": -112.0,
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856724",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-17T11:49:31.325262+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-17T11:49:31.609054+00:00",
      "event_id": "401856724",
      "source_competition_id": "401856724",
      "participant_mapping": {
        "away": "57",
        "home": "251",
        "source_sides": {
          "away": "away",
          "home": "home"
        }
      },
      "market_scope": "Full game",
      "moneyline_scope": "Game winner",
      "total_units": "points",
      "home_line": -11.5,
      "away_line": 11.5,
      "home_line_price": -108.0,
      "away_line_price": -112.0,
      "total": 51.5,
      "under_line": 51.5,
      "over_price": -105.0,
      "under_price": -115.0,
      "home_ml": -440.0,
      "away_ml": 340.0,
      "draw_ml": null,
      "moneyline_complete": true,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "applicable_market_complete": true,
      "price_filter_note": "Retained prices are observations; recommendations require American price strictly better than -400 plus all sporting/activation/value gates."
    },
    "quote_index": 0,
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-17T11:49:31.325262+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-17T11:49:31.609054+00:00",
    "canonical_buffer": null,
    "minimum_branch_buffer": -1.4466666666666654,
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    "all_cases": [
      {
        "branch": "Registered base / no qualifying absence branch",
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          31.494166666666665
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        "buffer": 3.2575000000000003,
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        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
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      {
        "branch": "Isolated conditional 57-5132812",
        "score": [
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          31.494166666666665
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        "case_id": "57-5132812",
        "condition": "Applies only if incumbent remains unavailable/materially limited AND retains a covered main/primary/material role.",
        "adverse_score": [
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        "buffer": 0.2575000000000003,
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        "stressed_buffer": -2.7424999999999997,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Isolated conditional 57-5295811",
        "score": [
          20.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
        ],
        "case_id": "57-5295811",
        "condition": "Applies only if incumbent remains unavailable/materially limited AND retains a covered main/primary/material role.",
        "adverse_score": [
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        "buffer": 0.2575000000000003,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.2575000000000003,
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        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Isolated conditional 57-5125593",
        "score": [
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          31.494166666666665
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        "case_id": "57-5125593",
        "condition": "Applies only if incumbent remains unavailable/materially limited AND retains a covered main/primary/material role.",
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        "buffer": 0.2575000000000003,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.2575000000000003,
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        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
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      {
        "branch": "Isolated conditional 57-5295815",
        "score": [
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          31.494166666666665
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        "case_id": "57-5295815",
        "condition": "Official unavailable established covered role.",
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          34.494166666666665
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        "buffer": 0.2575000000000003,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.2575000000000003,
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        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
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        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.2575000000000003,
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        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
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      {
        "branch": "Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
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        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Registered base / no qualifying absence branch",
        "score": [
          23.251666666666665,
          33.19833333333333
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        "component_reference": [
          23.251666666666665,
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        "personnel_offset": [
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          0.0
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        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          23.251666666666665,
          36.19833333333333
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        "buffer": 1.5533333333333346,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.5533333333333346,
        "stressed_buffer": -1.4466666666666654,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
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      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Isolated conditional 57-5132812",
        "score": [
          20.251666666666665,
          33.19833333333333
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        "component_reference": [
          23.251666666666665,
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        "personnel_offset": [
          -3.0,
          0.0
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        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          20.251666666666665,
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        "buffer": -1.4466666666666654,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.4466666666666654,
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        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
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      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Isolated conditional 57-5295811",
        "score": [
          20.251666666666665,
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        "component_reference": [
          23.251666666666665,
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        "personnel_offset": [
          -3.0,
          0.0
        ],
        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          20.251666666666665,
          36.19833333333333
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        "buffer": -1.4466666666666654,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.4466666666666654,
        "stressed_buffer": -4.446666666666665,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
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      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Isolated conditional 57-5125593",
        "score": [
          20.251666666666665,
          33.19833333333333
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        "component_reference": [
          23.251666666666665,
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        "personnel_offset": [
          -3.0,
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        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          20.251666666666665,
          36.19833333333333
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        "buffer": -1.4466666666666654,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.4466666666666654,
        "stressed_buffer": -4.446666666666665,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
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      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Isolated conditional 57-5295815",
        "score": [
          20.251666666666665,
          33.19833333333333
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        "component_reference": [
          23.251666666666665,
          33.19833333333334
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        "personnel_offset": [
          -3.0,
          0.0
        ],
        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          20.251666666666665,
          36.19833333333333
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        "buffer": -1.4466666666666654,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.4466666666666654,
        "stressed_buffer": -4.446666666666665,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
        "score": [
          20.251666666666665,
          33.19833333333333
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        "component_reference": [
          23.251666666666665,
          33.19833333333334
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        "personnel_offset": [
          -3.0,
          0.0
        ],
        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          20.251666666666665,
          36.19833333333333
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        "buffer": -1.4466666666666654,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.4466666666666654,
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        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
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      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
        "score": [
          23.251666666666665,
          33.19833333333333
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        "component_reference": [
          23.251666666666665,
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        "personnel_offset": [
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          0.0
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        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          23.251666666666665,
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        "buffer": 1.5533333333333346,
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        "stressed_buffer": -1.4466666666666654,
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    ],
    "frozen_model_checks": [
      {
        "model": "Classic",
        "score": null,
        "base_score": [
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        "buffer": null,
        "stressed_buffer": null,
        "interpretation": "Comparator only; no new blended forecast or invented coefficient."
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      {
        "model": "Primary",
        "score": null,
        "base_score": [
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        "buffer": null,
        "stressed_buffer": null,
        "interpretation": "Comparator only; no new blended forecast or invented coefficient."
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    ],
    "excluded_dormant_or_role_conditional_sensitivities": [
      {
        "player": "Eric Singleton Jr.",
        "team": "Florida Gators",
        "side": "away",
        "condition": "Dormant hypothetical only: requires new verified material limitation and covered-role qualification. Latest official Available controls current status.",
        "replacement": "id: 5141723; name: Dallas Wilson; position: WR; injuries: ; identity_status: current team roster identity; availability separately reviewed; history: category: receiving; rows: year: 2025; teamId: 57; teamSlug: florida-gators; stats: receptions: 12; receivingYards: 174; yardsPerReception: 14.5; receivingTouchdowns: 3; longReception: 55; year: 2026; teamId: 57; teamSlug: florida-gators; stats: receptions: 26; receivingYards: 376; yardsPerReception: 14.5; receivingTouchdowns: 3; longReception: 40; category: rushing; rows: year: 2026; teamId: 57; teamSlug: florida-gators; stats: rushingAttempts: 1; rushingYards: 6; yardsPerRushAttempt: 6.0; rushingTouchdowns: 1; longRushing: 6; current: receiving: receptions: 26; receivingYards: 376; yardsPerReception: 14.5; receivingTouchdowns: 3; longReception: 40; rushing: rushingAttempts: 1; rushingYards: 6; yardsPerRushAttempt: 6.0; rushingTouchdowns: 1; longRushing: 6; source_file: football\\college-stats-5141723.json; source_url: https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5141723/stats; retrieved_utc: 2026-10-17T05:34:34.655859+00:00; missing_history_years: 2024; missing_history_interpretation: No verified statistical row; not zero production. College divisions/team splits retained, no conversions.; games_starts: Not in retained career-stat feed; official note excerpts preserved when available; otherwise unavailable, not invented.; current_status: Available; replacement_activation: This named branch requires replacement available and not materially limited. If replacement also unavailable/limited, use other named conditional participants and retain joint effect unestimated/PASS; no automatic clearance.; current_status_source: file: football-fbs/matched-official-reports.json; team_id: 57; report_id: 3173; retrieved_utc: 2026-10-17T11:20:32.768911+00:00; primary_evidence_reference: file: football-fbs/player-primary-evidence.json; key: Dallas Wilson; matching_context_count: 9; id: 5125593; name: Bailey Stockton; position: WR; injuries: ; identity_status: current team roster identity; availability separately reviewed; history: category: receiving; rows: year: 2024; teamId: 59; teamSlug: georgia-tech-yellow-jackets; stats: receptions: 17; receivingYards: 206; yardsPerReception: 12.1; receivingTouchdowns: 1; longReception: 27; year: 2025; teamId: 59; teamSlug: georgia-tech-yellow-jackets; stats: receptions: 21; receivingYards: 233; yardsPerReception: 11.1; receivingTouchdowns: 0; longReception: 33; year: 2026; teamId: 57; teamSlug: florida-gators; stats: receptions: 23; receivingYards: 258; yardsPerReception: 11.2; receivingTouchdowns: 2; longReception: 59; category: rushing; rows: year: 2024; teamId: 59; teamSlug: georgia-tech-yellow-jackets; stats: rushingAttempts: 2; rushingYards: 11; yardsPerRushAttempt: 5.5; rushingTouchdowns: 0; longRushing: 7; year: 2025; teamId: 59; teamSlug: georgia-tech-yellow-jackets; stats: rushingAttempts: 1; rushingYards: 5; yardsPerRushAttempt: 5.0; rushingTouchdowns: 0; longRushing: 5; year: 2026; teamId: 57; teamSlug: florida-gators; stats: rushingAttempts: 1; rushingYards: -2; yardsPerRushAttempt: -2.0; rushingTouchdowns: 0; longRushing: -2; current: receiving: receptions: 23; receivingYards: 258; yardsPerReception: 11.2; receivingTouchdowns: 2; longReception: 59; rushing: rushingAttempts: 1; rushingYards: -2; yardsPerRushAttempt: -2.0; rushingTouchdowns: 0; longRushing: -2; source_file: football\\college-stats-5125593.json; source_url: https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5125593/stats; retrieved_utc: 2026-10-17T05:34:34.671434+00:00; missing_history_years: ; missing_history_interpretation: No verified statistical row; not zero production. College divisions/team splits retained, no conversions.; games_starts: Not in retained career-stat feed; official note excerpts preserved when available; otherwise unavailable, not invented.; current_status: Questionable; replacement_activation: This named branch requires replacement available and not materially limited. If replacement also unavailable/limited, use other named conditional participants and retain joint effect unestimated/PASS; no automatic clearance.; current_status_source: file: football-fbs/matched-official-reports.json; team_id: 57; report_id: 3173; retrieved_utc: 2026-10-17T11:20:32.768911+00:00; primary_evidence_reference: file: football-fbs/player-primary-evidence.json; key: Bailey Stockton; matching_context_count: 3; id: 5295811; name: Vernell Brown III; position: WR; injuries: ; identity_status: current team roster identity; availability separately reviewed; history: category: receiving; rows: year: 2025; teamId: 57; teamSlug: florida-gators; stats: receptions: 40; receivingYards: 512; yardsPerReception: 12.8; receivingTouchdowns: 0; longReception: 60; year: 2026; teamId: 57; teamSlug: florida-gators; stats: receptions: 17; receivingYards: 271; yardsPerReception: 15.9; receivingTouchdowns: 2; longReception: 49; category: rushing; rows: year: 2025; teamId: 57; teamSlug: florida-gators; stats: rushingAttempts: 1; rushingYards: 14; yardsPerRushAttempt: 14.0; rushingTouchdowns: 0; longRushing: 14; year: 2026; teamId: 57; teamSlug: florida-gators; stats: rushingAttempts: 3; rushingYards: 16; yardsPerRushAttempt: 5.3; rushingTouchdowns: 0; longRushing: 14; current: receiving: receptions: 17; receivingYards: 271; yardsPerReception: 15.9; receivingTouchdowns: 2; longReception: 49; rushing: rushingAttempts: 3; rushingYards: 16; yardsPerRushAttempt: 5.3; rushingTouchdowns: 0; longRushing: 14; source_file: football\\college-stats-5295811.json; source_url: https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5295811/stats; retrieved_utc: 2026-10-17T05:34:34.509622+00:00; missing_history_years: 2024; missing_history_interpretation: No verified statistical row; not zero production. College divisions/team splits retained, no conversions.; games_starts: Not in retained career-stat feed; official note excerpts preserved when available; otherwise unavailable, not invented.; current_status: Questionable; replacement_activation: This named branch requires replacement available and not materially limited. If replacement also unavailable/limited, use other named conditional participants and retain joint effect unestimated/PASS; no automatic clearance.; current_status_source: file: football-fbs/matched-official-reports.json; team_id: 57; report_id: 3173; retrieved_utc: 2026-10-17T11:20:32.768911+00:00; primary_evidence_reference: file: football-fbs/player-primary-evidence.json; key: Vernell Brown III; matching_context_count: 7; id: 5218907; name: Luke Harpring; position: TE; injuries: ; identity_status: current team roster identity; availability separately reviewed; history: category: receiving; rows: year: 2024; teamId: 59; teamSlug: georgia-tech-yellow-jackets; stats: receptions: 3; receivingYards: 43; yardsPerReception: 14.3; receivingTouchdowns: 0; longReception: 27; year: 2025; teamId: 59; teamSlug: georgia-tech-yellow-jackets; stats: receptions: 13; receivingYards: 158; yardsPerReception: 12.2; receivingTouchdowns: 0; longReception: 27; year: 2026; teamId: 57; teamSlug: florida-gators; stats: receptions: 12; receivingYards: 137; yardsPerReception: 11.4; receivingTouchdowns: 0; longReception: 22; current: receiving: receptions: 12; receivingYards: 137; yardsPerReception: 11.4; receivingTouchdowns: 0; longReception: 22; source_file: football\\college-stats-5218907.json; source_url: https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5218907/stats; retrieved_utc: 2026-10-17T05:34:34.486416+00:00; missing_history_years: ; missing_history_interpretation: No verified statistical row; not zero production. College divisions/team splits retained, no conversions.; games_starts: Not in retained career-stat feed; official note excerpts preserved when available; otherwise unavailable, not invented.; current_status: Available; replacement_activation: This named branch requires replacement available and not materially limited. If replacement also unavailable/limited, use other named conditional participants and retain joint effect unestimated/PASS; no automatic clearance.; current_status_source: file: football-fbs/matched-official-reports.json; team_id: 57; report_id: 3173; retrieved_utc: 2026-10-17T11:20:32.768911+00:00; primary_evidence_reference: file: football-fbs/player-primary-evidence.json; key: Luke Harpring; matching_context_count: 2",
        "isolated_score": [
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        "true_statistical_effect": null,
        "kind": "Human-only availability sensitivity; role-conditional scenarios not production",
        "role_conditional": true,
        "case_id": "57-5095360",
        "exclusion": "Dormant or covered-role qualification unverified; not an active production deduction"
      }
    ],
    "unestimated_branches": [
      {
        "branch": "Frozen adjusted conditional reference",
        "score": null
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      {
        "branch": "away joint replacement overlap",
        "score": null
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    ],
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "team": "Florida Gators",
        "mechanism": "Official Oct16 preview confirms Philo shoulder issue and Jones significant weekly reps; Clark out→Pryor behind Baugh. Brown absent past2 games; Stockton23/Brown17 catches support main receiving roles. Singleton limitation is older than latest SEC report and branch only if material. Passing losses overlap; total replacement carries cannot increase just because multiple players absent.",
        "conditional_scenarios": 5,
        "resolved": false,
        "kind": "availability",
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      {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "team": "Texas Longhorns",
        "mechanism": "Reviewed current team-split QB attempts, RB carries, main WR catches and receiving TE use with available official weekly material. No qualifying unavailability established in the retrieved sources. Current references remain conditional, reserve absence is not promoted to an automatic deduction.",
        "conditional_scenarios": 0,
        "resolved": false,
        "kind": "team_context",
        "onBlocksResidualAvailability": false
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    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-17T11:48:57.589105+00:00",
    "publication_status": "CANDIDATE ONLY; current recheck and complete package QA required",
    "stress": {
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      "survives": false,
      "component_stress_is_additional_personnel_free_reference": true,
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        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Isolated conditional 57-5132812",
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        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
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    "buffer": {
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    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
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          "mechanism": "Official Oct16 preview confirms Philo shoulder issue and Jones significant weekly reps; Clark out→Pryor behind Baugh. Brown absent past2 games; Stockton23/Brown17 catches support main receiving roles. Singleton limitation is older than latest SEC report and branch only if material. Passing losses overlap; total replacement carries cannot increase just because multiple players absent.",
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      "price_filter_note": "Retained prices are observations; recommendations require American price strictly better than -400 plus all sporting/activation/value gates."
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      {
        "branch": "Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
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        "adverse_score": [
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        "buffer": 0.24583333333333002,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.24583333333333002,
        "stressed_buffer": -2.75416666666667,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
        "score": [
          23.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
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        "adverse_score": [
          20.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
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        "buffer": 3.24583333333333,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.24583333333333,
        "stressed_buffer": 0.24583333333333002,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Registered base / no qualifying absence branch",
        "score": [
          23.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
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        "component_reference": [
          23.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
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        "personnel_offset": [
          0.0,
          0.0
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        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          20.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
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        "buffer": 3.24583333333333,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.24583333333333,
        "stressed_buffer": 0.24583333333333002,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
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      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Isolated conditional 57-5132812",
        "score": [
          20.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
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        "component_reference": [
          23.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
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        "personnel_offset": [
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          0.0
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        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          17.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
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        "buffer": 0.24583333333333002,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.24583333333333002,
        "stressed_buffer": -2.75416666666667,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
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      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Isolated conditional 57-5295811",
        "score": [
          20.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
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        "component_reference": [
          23.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
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        "personnel_offset": [
          -3.0,
          0.0
        ],
        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          17.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
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        "buffer": 0.24583333333333002,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.24583333333333002,
        "stressed_buffer": -2.75416666666667,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Isolated conditional 57-5125593",
        "score": [
          20.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
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        "component_reference": [
          23.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
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        "personnel_offset": [
          -3.0,
          0.0
        ],
        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          17.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
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        "buffer": 0.24583333333333002,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.24583333333333002,
        "stressed_buffer": -2.75416666666667,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Isolated conditional 57-5295815",
        "score": [
          20.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
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        "component_reference": [
          23.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
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        "personnel_offset": [
          -3.0,
          0.0
        ],
        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          17.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
        ],
        "buffer": 0.24583333333333002,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.24583333333333002,
        "stressed_buffer": -2.75416666666667,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
        "score": [
          20.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
        ],
        "component_reference": [
          23.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
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        "personnel_offset": [
          -3.0,
          0.0
        ],
        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          17.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
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        "buffer": 0.24583333333333002,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.24583333333333002,
        "stressed_buffer": -2.75416666666667,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
        "score": [
          23.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
        ],
        "component_reference": [
          23.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
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        "personnel_offset": [
          0.0,
          0.0
        ],
        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          20.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
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        "buffer": 3.24583333333333,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.24583333333333,
        "stressed_buffer": 0.24583333333333002,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
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    ],
    "frozen_model_checks": [
      {
        "model": "Classic",
        "score": null,
        "base_score": [
          24.085227272727273,
          29.204545454545453
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        "buffer": null,
        "stressed_buffer": null,
        "interpretation": "Comparator only; no new blended forecast or invented coefficient."
      },
      {
        "model": "Primary",
        "score": null,
        "base_score": [
          20.188804718752237,
          32.395758492231344
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        "buffer": null,
        "stressed_buffer": null,
        "interpretation": "Comparator only; no new blended forecast or invented coefficient."
      }
    ],
    "excluded_dormant_or_role_conditional_sensitivities": [
      {
        "player": "Eric Singleton Jr.",
        "team": "Florida Gators",
        "side": "away",
        "condition": "Dormant hypothetical only: requires new verified material limitation and covered-role qualification. Latest official Available controls current status.",
        "replacement": "id: 5141723; name: Dallas Wilson; position: WR; injuries: ; identity_status: current team roster identity; availability separately reviewed; history: category: receiving; rows: year: 2025; teamId: 57; teamSlug: florida-gators; stats: receptions: 12; receivingYards: 174; yardsPerReception: 14.5; receivingTouchdowns: 3; longReception: 55; year: 2026; teamId: 57; teamSlug: florida-gators; stats: receptions: 26; receivingYards: 376; yardsPerReception: 14.5; receivingTouchdowns: 3; longReception: 40; category: rushing; rows: year: 2026; teamId: 57; teamSlug: florida-gators; stats: rushingAttempts: 1; rushingYards: 6; yardsPerRushAttempt: 6.0; rushingTouchdowns: 1; longRushing: 6; current: receiving: receptions: 26; receivingYards: 376; yardsPerReception: 14.5; receivingTouchdowns: 3; longReception: 40; rushing: rushingAttempts: 1; rushingYards: 6; yardsPerRushAttempt: 6.0; rushingTouchdowns: 1; longRushing: 6; source_file: football\\college-stats-5141723.json; source_url: https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5141723/stats; retrieved_utc: 2026-10-17T05:34:34.655859+00:00; missing_history_years: 2024; missing_history_interpretation: No verified statistical row; not zero production. College divisions/team splits retained, no conversions.; games_starts: Not in retained career-stat feed; official note excerpts preserved when available; otherwise unavailable, not invented.; current_status: Available; replacement_activation: This named branch requires replacement available and not materially limited. If replacement also unavailable/limited, use other named conditional participants and retain joint effect unestimated/PASS; no automatic clearance.; current_status_source: file: football-fbs/matched-official-reports.json; team_id: 57; report_id: 3173; retrieved_utc: 2026-10-17T11:20:32.768911+00:00; primary_evidence_reference: file: football-fbs/player-primary-evidence.json; key: Dallas Wilson; matching_context_count: 9; id: 5125593; name: Bailey Stockton; position: WR; injuries: ; identity_status: current team roster identity; availability separately reviewed; history: category: receiving; rows: year: 2024; teamId: 59; teamSlug: georgia-tech-yellow-jackets; stats: receptions: 17; receivingYards: 206; yardsPerReception: 12.1; receivingTouchdowns: 1; longReception: 27; year: 2025; teamId: 59; teamSlug: georgia-tech-yellow-jackets; stats: receptions: 21; receivingYards: 233; yardsPerReception: 11.1; receivingTouchdowns: 0; longReception: 33; year: 2026; teamId: 57; teamSlug: florida-gators; stats: receptions: 23; receivingYards: 258; yardsPerReception: 11.2; receivingTouchdowns: 2; longReception: 59; category: rushing; rows: year: 2024; teamId: 59; teamSlug: georgia-tech-yellow-jackets; stats: rushingAttempts: 2; rushingYards: 11; yardsPerRushAttempt: 5.5; rushingTouchdowns: 0; longRushing: 7; year: 2025; teamId: 59; teamSlug: georgia-tech-yellow-jackets; stats: rushingAttempts: 1; rushingYards: 5; yardsPerRushAttempt: 5.0; rushingTouchdowns: 0; longRushing: 5; year: 2026; teamId: 57; teamSlug: florida-gators; stats: rushingAttempts: 1; rushingYards: -2; yardsPerRushAttempt: -2.0; rushingTouchdowns: 0; longRushing: -2; current: receiving: receptions: 23; receivingYards: 258; yardsPerReception: 11.2; receivingTouchdowns: 2; longReception: 59; rushing: rushingAttempts: 1; rushingYards: -2; yardsPerRushAttempt: -2.0; rushingTouchdowns: 0; longRushing: -2; source_file: football\\college-stats-5125593.json; source_url: https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5125593/stats; retrieved_utc: 2026-10-17T05:34:34.671434+00:00; missing_history_years: ; missing_history_interpretation: No verified statistical row; not zero production. College divisions/team splits retained, no conversions.; games_starts: Not in retained career-stat feed; official note excerpts preserved when available; otherwise unavailable, not invented.; current_status: Questionable; replacement_activation: This named branch requires replacement available and not materially limited. If replacement also unavailable/limited, use other named conditional participants and retain joint effect unestimated/PASS; no automatic clearance.; current_status_source: file: football-fbs/matched-official-reports.json; team_id: 57; report_id: 3173; retrieved_utc: 2026-10-17T11:20:32.768911+00:00; primary_evidence_reference: file: football-fbs/player-primary-evidence.json; key: Bailey Stockton; matching_context_count: 3; id: 5295811; name: Vernell Brown III; position: WR; injuries: ; identity_status: current team roster identity; availability separately reviewed; history: category: receiving; rows: year: 2025; teamId: 57; teamSlug: florida-gators; stats: receptions: 40; receivingYards: 512; yardsPerReception: 12.8; receivingTouchdowns: 0; longReception: 60; year: 2026; teamId: 57; teamSlug: florida-gators; stats: receptions: 17; receivingYards: 271; yardsPerReception: 15.9; receivingTouchdowns: 2; longReception: 49; category: rushing; rows: year: 2025; teamId: 57; teamSlug: florida-gators; stats: rushingAttempts: 1; rushingYards: 14; yardsPerRushAttempt: 14.0; rushingTouchdowns: 0; longRushing: 14; year: 2026; teamId: 57; teamSlug: florida-gators; stats: rushingAttempts: 3; rushingYards: 16; yardsPerRushAttempt: 5.3; rushingTouchdowns: 0; longRushing: 14; current: receiving: receptions: 17; receivingYards: 271; yardsPerReception: 15.9; receivingTouchdowns: 2; longReception: 49; rushing: rushingAttempts: 3; rushingYards: 16; yardsPerRushAttempt: 5.3; rushingTouchdowns: 0; longRushing: 14; source_file: football\\college-stats-5295811.json; source_url: https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5295811/stats; retrieved_utc: 2026-10-17T05:34:34.509622+00:00; missing_history_years: 2024; missing_history_interpretation: No verified statistical row; not zero production. College divisions/team splits retained, no conversions.; games_starts: Not in retained career-stat feed; official note excerpts preserved when available; otherwise unavailable, not invented.; current_status: Questionable; replacement_activation: This named branch requires replacement available and not materially limited. If replacement also unavailable/limited, use other named conditional participants and retain joint effect unestimated/PASS; no automatic clearance.; current_status_source: file: football-fbs/matched-official-reports.json; team_id: 57; report_id: 3173; retrieved_utc: 2026-10-17T11:20:32.768911+00:00; primary_evidence_reference: file: football-fbs/player-primary-evidence.json; key: Vernell Brown III; matching_context_count: 7; id: 5218907; name: Luke Harpring; position: TE; injuries: ; identity_status: current team roster identity; availability separately reviewed; history: category: receiving; rows: year: 2024; teamId: 59; teamSlug: georgia-tech-yellow-jackets; stats: receptions: 3; receivingYards: 43; yardsPerReception: 14.3; receivingTouchdowns: 0; longReception: 27; year: 2025; teamId: 59; teamSlug: georgia-tech-yellow-jackets; stats: receptions: 13; receivingYards: 158; yardsPerReception: 12.2; receivingTouchdowns: 0; longReception: 27; year: 2026; teamId: 57; teamSlug: florida-gators; stats: receptions: 12; receivingYards: 137; yardsPerReception: 11.4; receivingTouchdowns: 0; longReception: 22; current: receiving: receptions: 12; receivingYards: 137; yardsPerReception: 11.4; receivingTouchdowns: 0; longReception: 22; source_file: football\\college-stats-5218907.json; source_url: https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5218907/stats; retrieved_utc: 2026-10-17T05:34:34.486416+00:00; missing_history_years: ; missing_history_interpretation: No verified statistical row; not zero production. College divisions/team splits retained, no conversions.; games_starts: Not in retained career-stat feed; official note excerpts preserved when available; otherwise unavailable, not invented.; current_status: Available; replacement_activation: This named branch requires replacement available and not materially limited. If replacement also unavailable/limited, use other named conditional participants and retain joint effect unestimated/PASS; no automatic clearance.; current_status_source: file: football-fbs/matched-official-reports.json; team_id: 57; report_id: 3173; retrieved_utc: 2026-10-17T11:20:32.768911+00:00; primary_evidence_reference: file: football-fbs/player-primary-evidence.json; key: Luke Harpring; matching_context_count: 2",
        "isolated_score": [
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        "true_statistical_effect": null,
        "kind": "Human-only availability sensitivity; role-conditional scenarios not production",
        "role_conditional": true,
        "case_id": "57-5095360",
        "exclusion": "Dormant or covered-role qualification unverified; not an active production deduction"
      }
    ],
    "unestimated_branches": [
      {
        "branch": "Frozen adjusted conditional reference",
        "score": null
      },
      {
        "branch": "away joint replacement overlap",
        "score": null
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    ],
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "team": "Florida Gators",
        "mechanism": "Official Oct16 preview confirms Philo shoulder issue and Jones significant weekly reps; Clark out→Pryor behind Baugh. Brown absent past2 games; Stockton23/Brown17 catches support main receiving roles. Singleton limitation is older than latest SEC report and branch only if material. Passing losses overlap; total replacement carries cannot increase just because multiple players absent.",
        "conditional_scenarios": 5,
        "resolved": false,
        "kind": "availability",
        "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true
      },
      {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "team": "Texas Longhorns",
        "mechanism": "Reviewed current team-split QB attempts, RB carries, main WR catches and receiving TE use with available official weekly material. No qualifying unavailability established in the retrieved sources. Current references remain conditional, reserve absence is not promoted to an automatic deduction.",
        "conditional_scenarios": 0,
        "resolved": false,
        "kind": "team_context",
        "onBlocksResidualAvailability": false
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    ],
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-17T11:48:57.589105+00:00",
    "publication_status": "CANDIDATE ONLY; current recheck and complete package QA required",
    "stress": {
      "ordinary_adverse_points": 3,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
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      "component_stress_is_additional_personnel_free_reference": true,
      "worst": {
        "branch": "Isolated conditional 57-5132812",
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        "case_id": "57-5132812",
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    "buffer": {
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    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "team": "Florida Gators",
          "mechanism": "Official Oct16 preview confirms Philo shoulder issue and Jones significant weekly reps; Clark out→Pryor behind Baugh. Brown absent past2 games; Stockton23/Brown17 catches support main receiving roles. Singleton limitation is older than latest SEC report and branch only if material. Passing losses overlap; total replacement carries cannot increase just because multiple players absent.",
          "conditional_scenarios": 5,
          "resolved": false,
          "kind": "availability",
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        {
          "severity": "LOW",
          "team": "Texas Longhorns",
          "mechanism": "Reviewed current team-split QB attempts, RB carries, main WR catches and receiving TE use with available official weekly material. No qualifying unavailability established in the retrieved sources. Current references remain conditional, reserve absence is not promoted to an automatic deduction.",
          "conditional_scenarios": 0,
          "resolved": false,
          "kind": "team_context",
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      "unresolved_high": 1,
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      "one_tier_downgrade": false
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  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401856724",
    "matchup": "Florida Gators at Texas Longhorns",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "spread",
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    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
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      "RETAINED_BRANCH_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR",
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      "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK"
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    "selection_side": "away",
    "line": 11.5,
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    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856724",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-17T11:49:31.325262+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-17T11:49:31.609054+00:00",
      "event_id": "401856724",
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      "market_scope": "Full game",
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      "total": 51.5,
      "under_line": 51.5,
      "over_price": -105.0,
      "under_price": -115.0,
      "home_ml": -440.0,
      "away_ml": 340.0,
      "draw_ml": null,
      "moneyline_complete": true,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "applicable_market_complete": true,
      "price_filter_note": "Retained prices are observations; recommendations require American price strictly better than -400 plus all sporting/activation/value gates."
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    "quote_index": 0,
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-17T11:49:31.325262+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-17T11:49:31.609054+00:00",
    "canonical_buffer": null,
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    "all_cases": [
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      {
        "branch": "Isolated conditional 57-5125593",
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        "case_id": "57-5125593",
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      {
        "branch": "Isolated conditional 57-5295815",
        "score": [
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        "case_id": "57-5295815",
        "condition": "Official unavailable established covered role.",
        "adverse_score": [
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        "buffer": 0.2575000000000003,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.2575000000000003,
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        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
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      {
        "branch": "Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
        "score": [
          20.251666666666665,
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        "adverse_score": [
          20.251666666666665,
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        "buffer": 0.2575000000000003,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.2575000000000003,
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      {
        "branch": "Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
        "score": [
          23.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
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        "adverse_score": [
          23.251666666666665,
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        "buffer": 3.2575000000000003,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.2575000000000003,
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        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
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      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Registered base / no qualifying absence branch",
        "score": [
          23.251666666666665,
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        "component_reference": [
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        "personnel_offset": [
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        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          23.251666666666665,
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        "buffer": 1.5533333333333346,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.5533333333333346,
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        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
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      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Isolated conditional 57-5132812",
        "score": [
          20.251666666666665,
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        "component_reference": [
          23.251666666666665,
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        "personnel_offset": [
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          0.0
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        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          20.251666666666665,
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        "buffer": -1.4466666666666654,
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      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Isolated conditional 57-5295811",
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          20.251666666666665,
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        "component_reference": [
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        "personnel_offset": [
          -3.0,
          0.0
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        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          20.251666666666665,
          36.19833333333333
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        "buffer": -1.4466666666666654,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.4466666666666654,
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        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
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      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Isolated conditional 57-5125593",
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        "component_reference": [
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        "personnel_offset": [
          -3.0,
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        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          20.251666666666665,
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        "buffer": -1.4466666666666654,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.4466666666666654,
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        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
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      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Isolated conditional 57-5295815",
        "score": [
          20.251666666666665,
          33.19833333333333
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        "component_reference": [
          23.251666666666665,
          33.19833333333334
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        "personnel_offset": [
          -3.0,
          0.0
        ],
        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          20.251666666666665,
          36.19833333333333
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        "buffer": -1.4466666666666654,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.4466666666666654,
        "stressed_buffer": -4.446666666666665,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
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      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
        "score": [
          20.251666666666665,
          33.19833333333333
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        "component_reference": [
          23.251666666666665,
          33.19833333333334
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        "personnel_offset": [
          -3.0,
          0.0
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        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          20.251666666666665,
          36.19833333333333
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        "buffer": -1.4466666666666654,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.4466666666666654,
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        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
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      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
        "score": [
          23.251666666666665,
          33.19833333333333
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        "component_reference": [
          23.251666666666665,
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        "personnel_offset": [
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          0.0
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        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          23.251666666666665,
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        "buffer": 1.5533333333333346,
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    ],
    "frozen_model_checks": [
      {
        "model": "Classic",
        "score": null,
        "base_score": [
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        "buffer": null,
        "stressed_buffer": null,
        "interpretation": "Comparator only; no new blended forecast or invented coefficient."
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      {
        "model": "Primary",
        "score": null,
        "base_score": [
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        "buffer": null,
        "stressed_buffer": null,
        "interpretation": "Comparator only; no new blended forecast or invented coefficient."
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    ],
    "excluded_dormant_or_role_conditional_sensitivities": [
      {
        "player": "Eric Singleton Jr.",
        "team": "Florida Gators",
        "side": "away",
        "condition": "Dormant hypothetical only: requires new verified material limitation and covered-role qualification. Latest official Available controls current status.",
        "replacement": "id: 5141723; name: Dallas Wilson; position: WR; injuries: ; identity_status: current team roster identity; availability separately reviewed; history: category: receiving; rows: year: 2025; teamId: 57; teamSlug: florida-gators; stats: receptions: 12; receivingYards: 174; yardsPerReception: 14.5; receivingTouchdowns: 3; longReception: 55; year: 2026; teamId: 57; teamSlug: florida-gators; stats: receptions: 26; receivingYards: 376; yardsPerReception: 14.5; receivingTouchdowns: 3; longReception: 40; category: rushing; rows: year: 2026; teamId: 57; teamSlug: florida-gators; stats: rushingAttempts: 1; rushingYards: 6; yardsPerRushAttempt: 6.0; rushingTouchdowns: 1; longRushing: 6; current: receiving: receptions: 26; receivingYards: 376; yardsPerReception: 14.5; receivingTouchdowns: 3; longReception: 40; rushing: rushingAttempts: 1; rushingYards: 6; yardsPerRushAttempt: 6.0; rushingTouchdowns: 1; longRushing: 6; source_file: football\\college-stats-5141723.json; source_url: https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5141723/stats; retrieved_utc: 2026-10-17T05:34:34.655859+00:00; missing_history_years: 2024; missing_history_interpretation: No verified statistical row; not zero production. College divisions/team splits retained, no conversions.; games_starts: Not in retained career-stat feed; official note excerpts preserved when available; otherwise unavailable, not invented.; current_status: Available; replacement_activation: This named branch requires replacement available and not materially limited. If replacement also unavailable/limited, use other named conditional participants and retain joint effect unestimated/PASS; no automatic clearance.; current_status_source: file: football-fbs/matched-official-reports.json; team_id: 57; report_id: 3173; retrieved_utc: 2026-10-17T11:20:32.768911+00:00; primary_evidence_reference: file: football-fbs/player-primary-evidence.json; key: Dallas Wilson; matching_context_count: 9; id: 5125593; name: Bailey Stockton; position: WR; injuries: ; identity_status: current team roster identity; availability separately reviewed; history: category: receiving; rows: year: 2024; teamId: 59; teamSlug: georgia-tech-yellow-jackets; stats: receptions: 17; receivingYards: 206; yardsPerReception: 12.1; receivingTouchdowns: 1; longReception: 27; year: 2025; teamId: 59; teamSlug: georgia-tech-yellow-jackets; stats: receptions: 21; receivingYards: 233; yardsPerReception: 11.1; receivingTouchdowns: 0; longReception: 33; year: 2026; teamId: 57; teamSlug: florida-gators; stats: receptions: 23; receivingYards: 258; yardsPerReception: 11.2; receivingTouchdowns: 2; longReception: 59; category: rushing; rows: year: 2024; teamId: 59; teamSlug: georgia-tech-yellow-jackets; stats: rushingAttempts: 2; rushingYards: 11; yardsPerRushAttempt: 5.5; rushingTouchdowns: 0; longRushing: 7; year: 2025; teamId: 59; teamSlug: georgia-tech-yellow-jackets; stats: rushingAttempts: 1; rushingYards: 5; yardsPerRushAttempt: 5.0; rushingTouchdowns: 0; longRushing: 5; year: 2026; teamId: 57; teamSlug: florida-gators; stats: rushingAttempts: 1; rushingYards: -2; yardsPerRushAttempt: -2.0; rushingTouchdowns: 0; longRushing: -2; current: receiving: receptions: 23; receivingYards: 258; yardsPerReception: 11.2; receivingTouchdowns: 2; longReception: 59; rushing: rushingAttempts: 1; rushingYards: -2; yardsPerRushAttempt: -2.0; rushingTouchdowns: 0; longRushing: -2; source_file: football\\college-stats-5125593.json; source_url: https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5125593/stats; retrieved_utc: 2026-10-17T05:34:34.671434+00:00; missing_history_years: ; missing_history_interpretation: No verified statistical row; not zero production. College divisions/team splits retained, no conversions.; games_starts: Not in retained career-stat feed; official note excerpts preserved when available; otherwise unavailable, not invented.; current_status: Questionable; replacement_activation: This named branch requires replacement available and not materially limited. If replacement also unavailable/limited, use other named conditional participants and retain joint effect unestimated/PASS; no automatic clearance.; current_status_source: file: football-fbs/matched-official-reports.json; team_id: 57; report_id: 3173; retrieved_utc: 2026-10-17T11:20:32.768911+00:00; primary_evidence_reference: file: football-fbs/player-primary-evidence.json; key: Bailey Stockton; matching_context_count: 3; id: 5295811; name: Vernell Brown III; position: WR; injuries: ; identity_status: current team roster identity; availability separately reviewed; history: category: receiving; rows: year: 2025; teamId: 57; teamSlug: florida-gators; stats: receptions: 40; receivingYards: 512; yardsPerReception: 12.8; receivingTouchdowns: 0; longReception: 60; year: 2026; teamId: 57; teamSlug: florida-gators; stats: receptions: 17; receivingYards: 271; yardsPerReception: 15.9; receivingTouchdowns: 2; longReception: 49; category: rushing; rows: year: 2025; teamId: 57; teamSlug: florida-gators; stats: rushingAttempts: 1; rushingYards: 14; yardsPerRushAttempt: 14.0; rushingTouchdowns: 0; longRushing: 14; year: 2026; teamId: 57; teamSlug: florida-gators; stats: rushingAttempts: 3; rushingYards: 16; yardsPerRushAttempt: 5.3; rushingTouchdowns: 0; longRushing: 14; current: receiving: receptions: 17; receivingYards: 271; yardsPerReception: 15.9; receivingTouchdowns: 2; longReception: 49; rushing: rushingAttempts: 3; rushingYards: 16; yardsPerRushAttempt: 5.3; rushingTouchdowns: 0; longRushing: 14; source_file: football\\college-stats-5295811.json; source_url: https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5295811/stats; retrieved_utc: 2026-10-17T05:34:34.509622+00:00; missing_history_years: 2024; missing_history_interpretation: No verified statistical row; not zero production. College divisions/team splits retained, no conversions.; games_starts: Not in retained career-stat feed; official note excerpts preserved when available; otherwise unavailable, not invented.; current_status: Questionable; replacement_activation: This named branch requires replacement available and not materially limited. If replacement also unavailable/limited, use other named conditional participants and retain joint effect unestimated/PASS; no automatic clearance.; current_status_source: file: football-fbs/matched-official-reports.json; team_id: 57; report_id: 3173; retrieved_utc: 2026-10-17T11:20:32.768911+00:00; primary_evidence_reference: file: football-fbs/player-primary-evidence.json; key: Vernell Brown III; matching_context_count: 7; id: 5218907; name: Luke Harpring; position: TE; injuries: ; identity_status: current team roster identity; availability separately reviewed; history: category: receiving; rows: year: 2024; teamId: 59; teamSlug: georgia-tech-yellow-jackets; stats: receptions: 3; receivingYards: 43; yardsPerReception: 14.3; receivingTouchdowns: 0; longReception: 27; year: 2025; teamId: 59; teamSlug: georgia-tech-yellow-jackets; stats: receptions: 13; receivingYards: 158; yardsPerReception: 12.2; receivingTouchdowns: 0; longReception: 27; year: 2026; teamId: 57; teamSlug: florida-gators; stats: receptions: 12; receivingYards: 137; yardsPerReception: 11.4; receivingTouchdowns: 0; longReception: 22; current: receiving: receptions: 12; receivingYards: 137; yardsPerReception: 11.4; receivingTouchdowns: 0; longReception: 22; source_file: football\\college-stats-5218907.json; source_url: https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5218907/stats; retrieved_utc: 2026-10-17T05:34:34.486416+00:00; missing_history_years: ; missing_history_interpretation: No verified statistical row; not zero production. College divisions/team splits retained, no conversions.; games_starts: Not in retained career-stat feed; official note excerpts preserved when available; otherwise unavailable, not invented.; current_status: Available; replacement_activation: This named branch requires replacement available and not materially limited. If replacement also unavailable/limited, use other named conditional participants and retain joint effect unestimated/PASS; no automatic clearance.; current_status_source: file: football-fbs/matched-official-reports.json; team_id: 57; report_id: 3173; retrieved_utc: 2026-10-17T11:20:32.768911+00:00; primary_evidence_reference: file: football-fbs/player-primary-evidence.json; key: Luke Harpring; matching_context_count: 2",
        "isolated_score": [
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        "true_statistical_effect": null,
        "kind": "Human-only availability sensitivity; role-conditional scenarios not production",
        "role_conditional": true,
        "case_id": "57-5095360",
        "exclusion": "Dormant or covered-role qualification unverified; not an active production deduction"
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    ],
    "unestimated_branches": [
      {
        "branch": "Frozen adjusted conditional reference",
        "score": null
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      {
        "branch": "away joint replacement overlap",
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    ],
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "team": "Florida Gators",
        "mechanism": "Official Oct16 preview confirms Philo shoulder issue and Jones significant weekly reps; Clark out→Pryor behind Baugh. Brown absent past2 games; Stockton23/Brown17 catches support main receiving roles. Singleton limitation is older than latest SEC report and branch only if material. Passing losses overlap; total replacement carries cannot increase just because multiple players absent.",
        "conditional_scenarios": 5,
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        "kind": "availability",
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      {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "team": "Texas Longhorns",
        "mechanism": "Reviewed current team-split QB attempts, RB carries, main WR catches and receiving TE use with available official weekly material. No qualifying unavailability established in the retrieved sources. Current references remain conditional, reserve absence is not promoted to an automatic deduction.",
        "conditional_scenarios": 0,
        "resolved": false,
        "kind": "team_context",
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    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-17T11:48:57.589105+00:00",
    "publication_status": "CANDIDATE ONLY; current recheck and complete package QA required",
    "stress": {
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    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
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          "mechanism": "Official Oct16 preview confirms Philo shoulder issue and Jones significant weekly reps; Clark out→Pryor behind Baugh. Brown absent past2 games; Stockton23/Brown17 catches support main receiving roles. Singleton limitation is older than latest SEC report and branch only if material. Passing losses overlap; total replacement carries cannot increase just because multiple players absent.",
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      "price_filter_note": "Retained prices are observations; recommendations require American price strictly better than -400 plus all sporting/activation/value gates."
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        "case_id": "57-5125593",
        "condition": "Applies only if incumbent remains unavailable/materially limited AND retains a covered main/primary/material role.",
        "adverse_score": [
          17.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
        ],
        "buffer": 0.24583333333333002,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.24583333333333002,
        "stressed_buffer": -2.75416666666667,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Isolated conditional 57-5295815",
        "score": [
          20.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
        ],
        "case_id": "57-5295815",
        "condition": "Official unavailable established covered role.",
        "adverse_score": [
          17.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
        ],
        "buffer": 0.24583333333333002,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.24583333333333002,
        "stressed_buffer": -2.75416666666667,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
        "score": [
          20.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
        ],
        "adverse_score": [
          17.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
        ],
        "buffer": 0.24583333333333002,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.24583333333333002,
        "stressed_buffer": -2.75416666666667,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
        "score": [
          23.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
        ],
        "adverse_score": [
          20.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
        ],
        "buffer": 3.24583333333333,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.24583333333333,
        "stressed_buffer": 0.24583333333333002,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Registered base / no qualifying absence branch",
        "score": [
          23.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
        ],
        "component_reference": [
          23.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
        ],
        "personnel_offset": [
          0.0,
          0.0
        ],
        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          20.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
        ],
        "buffer": 3.24583333333333,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.24583333333333,
        "stressed_buffer": 0.24583333333333002,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Isolated conditional 57-5132812",
        "score": [
          20.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
        ],
        "component_reference": [
          23.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
        ],
        "personnel_offset": [
          -3.0,
          0.0
        ],
        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          17.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
        ],
        "buffer": 0.24583333333333002,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.24583333333333002,
        "stressed_buffer": -2.75416666666667,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Isolated conditional 57-5295811",
        "score": [
          20.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
        ],
        "component_reference": [
          23.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
        ],
        "personnel_offset": [
          -3.0,
          0.0
        ],
        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          17.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
        ],
        "buffer": 0.24583333333333002,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.24583333333333002,
        "stressed_buffer": -2.75416666666667,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Isolated conditional 57-5125593",
        "score": [
          20.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
        ],
        "component_reference": [
          23.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
        ],
        "personnel_offset": [
          -3.0,
          0.0
        ],
        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          17.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
        ],
        "buffer": 0.24583333333333002,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.24583333333333002,
        "stressed_buffer": -2.75416666666667,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Isolated conditional 57-5295815",
        "score": [
          20.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
        ],
        "component_reference": [
          23.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
        ],
        "personnel_offset": [
          -3.0,
          0.0
        ],
        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          17.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
        ],
        "buffer": 0.24583333333333002,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.24583333333333002,
        "stressed_buffer": -2.75416666666667,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
        "score": [
          20.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
        ],
        "component_reference": [
          23.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
        ],
        "personnel_offset": [
          -3.0,
          0.0
        ],
        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          17.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
        ],
        "buffer": 0.24583333333333002,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.24583333333333002,
        "stressed_buffer": -2.75416666666667,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      },
      {
        "branch": "Current-component adverse envelope + Cross-team combination of retained role branches",
        "score": [
          23.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
        ],
        "component_reference": [
          23.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
        ],
        "personnel_offset": [
          0.0,
          0.0
        ],
        "method": "Hold registered mismatch, venue and clip fixed, substitute retained current matchup component for50/50 prior/current. Envelope containsbase andcomponentstress. Diagnostic only; notnewproductionweight or calibratedinterval.",
        "adverse_score": [
          20.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
        ],
        "buffer": 3.24583333333333,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.24583333333333,
        "stressed_buffer": 0.24583333333333002,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
      }
    ],
    "frozen_model_checks": [
      {
        "model": "Classic",
        "score": null,
        "base_score": [
          24.085227272727273,
          29.204545454545453
        ],
        "buffer": null,
        "stressed_buffer": null,
        "interpretation": "Comparator only; no new blended forecast or invented coefficient."
      },
      {
        "model": "Primary",
        "score": null,
        "base_score": [
          20.188804718752237,
          32.395758492231344
        ],
        "buffer": null,
        "stressed_buffer": null,
        "interpretation": "Comparator only; no new blended forecast or invented coefficient."
      }
    ],
    "excluded_dormant_or_role_conditional_sensitivities": [
      {
        "player": "Eric Singleton Jr.",
        "team": "Florida Gators",
        "side": "away",
        "condition": "Dormant hypothetical only: requires new verified material limitation and covered-role qualification. Latest official Available controls current status.",
        "replacement": "id: 5141723; name: Dallas Wilson; position: WR; injuries: ; identity_status: current team roster identity; availability separately reviewed; history: category: receiving; rows: year: 2025; teamId: 57; teamSlug: florida-gators; stats: receptions: 12; receivingYards: 174; yardsPerReception: 14.5; receivingTouchdowns: 3; longReception: 55; year: 2026; teamId: 57; teamSlug: florida-gators; stats: receptions: 26; receivingYards: 376; yardsPerReception: 14.5; receivingTouchdowns: 3; longReception: 40; category: rushing; rows: year: 2026; teamId: 57; teamSlug: florida-gators; stats: rushingAttempts: 1; rushingYards: 6; yardsPerRushAttempt: 6.0; rushingTouchdowns: 1; longRushing: 6; current: receiving: receptions: 26; receivingYards: 376; yardsPerReception: 14.5; receivingTouchdowns: 3; longReception: 40; rushing: rushingAttempts: 1; rushingYards: 6; yardsPerRushAttempt: 6.0; rushingTouchdowns: 1; longRushing: 6; source_file: football\\college-stats-5141723.json; source_url: https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5141723/stats; retrieved_utc: 2026-10-17T05:34:34.655859+00:00; missing_history_years: 2024; missing_history_interpretation: No verified statistical row; not zero production. College divisions/team splits retained, no conversions.; games_starts: Not in retained career-stat feed; official note excerpts preserved when available; otherwise unavailable, not invented.; current_status: Available; replacement_activation: This named branch requires replacement available and not materially limited. If replacement also unavailable/limited, use other named conditional participants and retain joint effect unestimated/PASS; no automatic clearance.; current_status_source: file: football-fbs/matched-official-reports.json; team_id: 57; report_id: 3173; retrieved_utc: 2026-10-17T11:20:32.768911+00:00; primary_evidence_reference: file: football-fbs/player-primary-evidence.json; key: Dallas Wilson; matching_context_count: 9; id: 5125593; name: Bailey Stockton; position: WR; injuries: ; identity_status: current team roster identity; availability separately reviewed; history: category: receiving; rows: year: 2024; teamId: 59; teamSlug: georgia-tech-yellow-jackets; stats: receptions: 17; receivingYards: 206; yardsPerReception: 12.1; receivingTouchdowns: 1; longReception: 27; year: 2025; teamId: 59; teamSlug: georgia-tech-yellow-jackets; stats: receptions: 21; receivingYards: 233; yardsPerReception: 11.1; receivingTouchdowns: 0; longReception: 33; year: 2026; teamId: 57; teamSlug: florida-gators; stats: receptions: 23; receivingYards: 258; yardsPerReception: 11.2; receivingTouchdowns: 2; longReception: 59; category: rushing; rows: year: 2024; teamId: 59; teamSlug: georgia-tech-yellow-jackets; stats: rushingAttempts: 2; rushingYards: 11; yardsPerRushAttempt: 5.5; rushingTouchdowns: 0; longRushing: 7; year: 2025; teamId: 59; teamSlug: georgia-tech-yellow-jackets; stats: rushingAttempts: 1; rushingYards: 5; yardsPerRushAttempt: 5.0; rushingTouchdowns: 0; longRushing: 5; year: 2026; teamId: 57; teamSlug: florida-gators; stats: rushingAttempts: 1; rushingYards: -2; yardsPerRushAttempt: -2.0; rushingTouchdowns: 0; longRushing: -2; current: receiving: receptions: 23; receivingYards: 258; yardsPerReception: 11.2; receivingTouchdowns: 2; longReception: 59; rushing: rushingAttempts: 1; rushingYards: -2; yardsPerRushAttempt: -2.0; rushingTouchdowns: 0; longRushing: -2; source_file: football\\college-stats-5125593.json; source_url: https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5125593/stats; retrieved_utc: 2026-10-17T05:34:34.671434+00:00; missing_history_years: ; missing_history_interpretation: No verified statistical row; not zero production. College divisions/team splits retained, no conversions.; games_starts: Not in retained career-stat feed; official note excerpts preserved when available; otherwise unavailable, not invented.; current_status: Questionable; replacement_activation: This named branch requires replacement available and not materially limited. If replacement also unavailable/limited, use other named conditional participants and retain joint effect unestimated/PASS; no automatic clearance.; current_status_source: file: football-fbs/matched-official-reports.json; team_id: 57; report_id: 3173; retrieved_utc: 2026-10-17T11:20:32.768911+00:00; primary_evidence_reference: file: football-fbs/player-primary-evidence.json; key: Bailey Stockton; matching_context_count: 3; id: 5295811; name: Vernell Brown III; position: WR; injuries: ; identity_status: current team roster identity; availability separately reviewed; history: category: receiving; rows: year: 2025; teamId: 57; teamSlug: florida-gators; stats: receptions: 40; receivingYards: 512; yardsPerReception: 12.8; receivingTouchdowns: 0; longReception: 60; year: 2026; teamId: 57; teamSlug: florida-gators; stats: receptions: 17; receivingYards: 271; yardsPerReception: 15.9; receivingTouchdowns: 2; longReception: 49; category: rushing; rows: year: 2025; teamId: 57; teamSlug: florida-gators; stats: rushingAttempts: 1; rushingYards: 14; yardsPerRushAttempt: 14.0; rushingTouchdowns: 0; longRushing: 14; year: 2026; teamId: 57; teamSlug: florida-gators; stats: rushingAttempts: 3; rushingYards: 16; yardsPerRushAttempt: 5.3; rushingTouchdowns: 0; longRushing: 14; current: receiving: receptions: 17; receivingYards: 271; yardsPerReception: 15.9; receivingTouchdowns: 2; longReception: 49; rushing: rushingAttempts: 3; rushingYards: 16; yardsPerRushAttempt: 5.3; rushingTouchdowns: 0; longRushing: 14; source_file: football\\college-stats-5295811.json; source_url: https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5295811/stats; retrieved_utc: 2026-10-17T05:34:34.509622+00:00; missing_history_years: 2024; missing_history_interpretation: No verified statistical row; not zero production. College divisions/team splits retained, no conversions.; games_starts: Not in retained career-stat feed; official note excerpts preserved when available; otherwise unavailable, not invented.; current_status: Questionable; replacement_activation: This named branch requires replacement available and not materially limited. If replacement also unavailable/limited, use other named conditional participants and retain joint effect unestimated/PASS; no automatic clearance.; current_status_source: file: football-fbs/matched-official-reports.json; team_id: 57; report_id: 3173; retrieved_utc: 2026-10-17T11:20:32.768911+00:00; primary_evidence_reference: file: football-fbs/player-primary-evidence.json; key: Vernell Brown III; matching_context_count: 7; id: 5218907; name: Luke Harpring; position: TE; injuries: ; identity_status: current team roster identity; availability separately reviewed; history: category: receiving; rows: year: 2024; teamId: 59; teamSlug: georgia-tech-yellow-jackets; stats: receptions: 3; receivingYards: 43; yardsPerReception: 14.3; receivingTouchdowns: 0; longReception: 27; year: 2025; teamId: 59; teamSlug: georgia-tech-yellow-jackets; stats: receptions: 13; receivingYards: 158; yardsPerReception: 12.2; receivingTouchdowns: 0; longReception: 27; year: 2026; teamId: 57; teamSlug: florida-gators; stats: receptions: 12; receivingYards: 137; yardsPerReception: 11.4; receivingTouchdowns: 0; longReception: 22; current: receiving: receptions: 12; receivingYards: 137; yardsPerReception: 11.4; receivingTouchdowns: 0; longReception: 22; source_file: football\\college-stats-5218907.json; source_url: https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5218907/stats; retrieved_utc: 2026-10-17T05:34:34.486416+00:00; missing_history_years: ; missing_history_interpretation: No verified statistical row; not zero production. College divisions/team splits retained, no conversions.; games_starts: Not in retained career-stat feed; official note excerpts preserved when available; otherwise unavailable, not invented.; current_status: Available; replacement_activation: This named branch requires replacement available and not materially limited. If replacement also unavailable/limited, use other named conditional participants and retain joint effect unestimated/PASS; no automatic clearance.; current_status_source: file: football-fbs/matched-official-reports.json; team_id: 57; report_id: 3173; retrieved_utc: 2026-10-17T11:20:32.768911+00:00; primary_evidence_reference: file: football-fbs/player-primary-evidence.json; key: Luke Harpring; matching_context_count: 2",
        "isolated_score": [
          20.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
        ],
        "true_statistical_effect": null,
        "kind": "Human-only availability sensitivity; role-conditional scenarios not production",
        "role_conditional": true,
        "case_id": "57-5095360",
        "exclusion": "Dormant or covered-role qualification unverified; not an active production deduction"
      }
    ],
    "unestimated_branches": [
      {
        "branch": "Frozen adjusted conditional reference",
        "score": null
      },
      {
        "branch": "away joint replacement overlap",
        "score": null
      }
    ],
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "team": "Florida Gators",
        "mechanism": "Official Oct16 preview confirms Philo shoulder issue and Jones significant weekly reps; Clark out→Pryor behind Baugh. Brown absent past2 games; Stockton23/Brown17 catches support main receiving roles. Singleton limitation is older than latest SEC report and branch only if material. Passing losses overlap; total replacement carries cannot increase just because multiple players absent.",
        "conditional_scenarios": 5,
        "resolved": false,
        "kind": "availability",
        "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true
      },
      {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "team": "Texas Longhorns",
        "mechanism": "Reviewed current team-split QB attempts, RB carries, main WR catches and receiving TE use with available official weekly material. No qualifying unavailability established in the retrieved sources. Current references remain conditional, reserve absence is not promoted to an automatic deduction.",
        "conditional_scenarios": 0,
        "resolved": false,
        "kind": "team_context",
        "onBlocksResidualAvailability": false
      }
    ],
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-17T11:48:57.589105+00:00",
    "publication_status": "CANDIDATE ONLY; current recheck and complete package QA required",
    "stress": {
      "ordinary_adverse_points": 3,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "survives": false,
      "component_stress_is_additional_personnel_free_reference": true,
      "worst": {
        "branch": "Isolated conditional 57-5132812",
        "score": [
          20.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
        ],
        "case_id": "57-5132812",
        "condition": "Applies only if incumbent remains unavailable/materially limited AND retains a covered main/primary/material role.",
        "adverse_score": [
          17.251666666666665,
          31.494166666666665
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        "buffer": 0.24583333333333002,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.24583333333333002,
        "stressed_buffer": -2.75416666666667,
        "ordinary_stress_points": 3
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      "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": null
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 4,
      "base": 3.24583333333333,
      "production_adjusted": null,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": 0.24583333333333002
    },
    "unresolved_high": 1,
    "unresolved_medium": 0,
    "one_tier_downgrade": false,
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "team": "Florida Gators",
          "mechanism": "Official Oct16 preview confirms Philo shoulder issue and Jones significant weekly reps; Clark out→Pryor behind Baugh. Brown absent past2 games; Stockton23/Brown17 catches support main receiving roles. Singleton limitation is older than latest SEC report and branch only if material. Passing losses overlap; total replacement carries cannot increase just because multiple players absent.",
          "conditional_scenarios": 5,
          "resolved": false,
          "kind": "availability",
          "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true
        },
        {
          "severity": "LOW",
          "team": "Texas Longhorns",
          "mechanism": "Reviewed current team-split QB attempts, RB carries, main WR catches and receiving TE use with available official weekly material. No qualifying unavailability established in the retrieved sources. Current references remain conditional, reserve absence is not promoted to an automatic deduction.",
          "conditional_scenarios": 0,
          "resolved": false,
          "kind": "team_context",
          "onBlocksResidualAvailability": false
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 1,
      "unresolved_medium": 0,
      "one_tier_downgrade": false
    }
  }
}

Classic

Conditional joint Unavailable

• Aaron Philo: Applies only if incumbent remains unavailable/materially limited AND retains a covered main/primary/material role.; isolated 21.0 / 29.0; other team production Unavailable
• Vernell Brown III: Applies only if incumbent remains unavailable/materially limited AND retains a covered main/primary/material role.; isolated 21.0 / 29.0; other team production Unavailable
• Bailey Stockton: Applies only if incumbent remains unavailable/materially limited AND retains a covered main/primary/material role.; isolated 21.0 / 29.0; other team production Unavailable
• Duke Clark: Official unavailable established covered role.; isolated 21.0 / 29.0; other team production Unavailable
• Eric Singleton Jr.: Dormant hypothetical only: requires new verified material limitation and covered-role qualification. Latest official Available controls current status.; isolated 21.0 / 29.0; other team production Unavailable

Primary

Conditional joint Unavailable

• Aaron Philo: Applies only if incumbent remains unavailable/materially limited AND retains a covered main/primary/material role.; isolated 17.0 / 32.5; other team production Unavailable
• Vernell Brown III: Applies only if incumbent remains unavailable/materially limited AND retains a covered main/primary/material role.; isolated 17.0 / 32.5; other team production Unavailable
• Bailey Stockton: Applies only if incumbent remains unavailable/materially limited AND retains a covered main/primary/material role.; isolated 17.0 / 32.5; other team production Unavailable
• Duke Clark: Official unavailable established covered role.; isolated 17.0 / 32.5; other team production Unavailable
• Eric Singleton Jr.: Dormant hypothetical only: requires new verified material limitation and covered-role qualification. Latest official Available controls current status.; isolated 17.0 / 32.5; other team production Unavailable

Tighten Up Conservative ON

Conditional joint Unavailable

• Aaron Philo: Applies only if incumbent remains unavailable/materially limited AND retains a covered main/primary/material role.; isolated 20.5 / 31.5; other team production Unavailable
• Vernell Brown III: Applies only if incumbent remains unavailable/materially limited AND retains a covered main/primary/material role.; isolated 20.5 / 31.5; other team production Unavailable
• Bailey Stockton: Applies only if incumbent remains unavailable/materially limited AND retains a covered main/primary/material role.; isolated 20.5 / 31.5; other team production Unavailable
• Duke Clark: Official unavailable established covered role.; isolated 20.5 / 31.5; other team production Unavailable
• Eric Singleton Jr.: Dormant hypothetical only: requires new verified material limitation and covered-role qualification. Latest official Available controls current status.; isolated 20.5 / 31.5; other team production Unavailable

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

Conditional joint Unavailable

• Aaron Philo: Applies only if incumbent remains unavailable/materially limited AND retains a covered main/primary/material role.; isolated 20.5 / 31.5; other team production Unavailable
• Vernell Brown III: Applies only if incumbent remains unavailable/materially limited AND retains a covered main/primary/material role.; isolated 20.5 / 31.5; other team production Unavailable
• Bailey Stockton: Applies only if incumbent remains unavailable/materially limited AND retains a covered main/primary/material role.; isolated 20.5 / 31.5; other team production Unavailable
• Duke Clark: Official unavailable established covered role.; isolated 20.5 / 31.5; other team production Unavailable
• Eric Singleton Jr.: Dormant hypothetical only: requires new verified material limitation and covered-role qualification. Latest official Available controls current status.; isolated 20.5 / 31.5; other team production Unavailable

• https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/EWX/156,91/forecast/hourly
• https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/few?size=small
• https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/skc?size=small
• https://api.weather.gov/points/30.2672,-97.7431
• https://app.hdintelligence.com/api/get-publish-public
• https://floridagators.com/documents/download/2026/8/12/2026_Football_Media_Guide.pdf
• https://floridagators.com/news/2026/10/15/football-carters-corner-philo-questionable-jones-ready-as-gators-prepare-for-texas-jon-sumrall-aaron-philo-tramell-jones
• https://floridagators.com/news/2026/10/15/football-gators-wilson-speaks-up-as-gators-face-adversity-dallas-wilson-jon-sumrall
• https://floridagators.com/news/2026/10/16/football-the-opening-kickoff-gators-at-no-7-texas-time-to-dig-deeper
• https://floridagators.com/sports/football
• https://geocoding-api.open-meteo.com/v1/search?name=Austin&count=20&countryCode=US&language=en&format=json
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• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/304/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2
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• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/322/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2
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• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/331/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/333/schedule?season=2025&seasontype=2
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/333/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/344/schedule?season=2025&seasontype=2
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/344/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2
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• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/349/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2
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• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/38/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2
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• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/399/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/43/schedule?season=2025&seasontype=2
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/43/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/46/schedule?season=2025&seasontype=2
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/46/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/47/schedule?season=2025&seasontype=2
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/47/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/50/schedule?season=2025&seasontype=2
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/50/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/52/schedule?season=2025&seasontype=2
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/52/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2
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• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/56/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2
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• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/99/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4432757/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4685268/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4870906/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4871053/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4921318/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5079289/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5079322/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5079376/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5079613/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5095360/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5121998/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5125593/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5132812/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5139093/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5141509/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5141723/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5141757/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5195299/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5203606/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5218633/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5218907/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5295811/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5295814/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5295815/stats
• https://texassports.com/documents/download/2026/10/11/Overall.pdf
• https://texassports.com/news/2026/10/15/no-7-6-footballs-biles-named-lott-impact-trophy-quarterfinalist
• https://texassports.com/sports/football

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON