{
  "createdUtc": "2026-10-17T12:46:27.249488+00:00",
  "status": "FINAL \u2014 FOUR PUBLISHED OFF SELECTIONS",
  "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF",
  "selections": [
    {
      "event_id": "401856831",
      "matchup": "Oklahoma State Cowboys at Houston Cougars",
      "market": "spread",
      "pick": "Houston Cougars -4.5 (-110)",
      "price": -110,
      "tier": "Pick of the Day",
      "rationale": "OFF spread gate passed with no unresolved high or medium availability risk. The recorded adverse branch retained a positive 1.96-point cushion. Fresh full-game quote confirmed before publication.",
      "market_source": "https://www.betus.com.pa/sportsbook/college-football/oklahoma-st-vs-houston/",
      "research_confidence": {
        "level": "High",
        "basis": "Classic, Primary and Tighten Up support the recorded side; no unresolved high or medium selection risk remains.",
        "limitations": "Research-confidence rating only; not a calibrated win or cover probability."
      },
      "research_confidence_score": 82,
      "research_confidence_label": "Research-confidence score; not a probability or guarantee."
    },
    {
      "event_id": "401856829",
      "matchup": "Cincinnati Bearcats at West Virginia Mountaineers",
      "market": "spread",
      "pick": "Cincinnati Bearcats +2 (-113)",
      "price": -113,
      "tier": "Bonus Pick",
      "rationale": "OFF spread gate passed. One medium model-direction disagreement remains disclosed; the retained adverse branch still held a 4.08-point cushion. Fresh full-game quote confirmed before publication.",
      "market_source": "https://fantasydata.com/ncaa-football/cincinnati-bearcats-odds",
      "research_confidence": {
        "level": "Limited",
        "basis": "The retained Tighten Up case passed with a positive adverse cushion.",
        "limitations": "Primary projects against the selected side; one medium engine-disagreement risk remains. Not a probability."
      },
      "research_confidence_score": 67,
      "research_confidence_label": "Research-confidence score; not a probability or guarantee."
    },
    {
      "event_id": "401868250",
      "matchup": "UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros at Incarnate Word Cardinals",
      "market": "spread",
      "pick": "UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros +3 (-110)",
      "price": -110,
      "tier": "Free Pick A",
      "rationale": "Both ON and OFF spread gates passed. Two medium risks require the lower Free tier; the retained adverse branch held a 6.70-point cushion. Fresh full-game quote confirmed before publication.",
      "market_source": "https://www.oddschecker.com/us/football/college-football/ut-rio-grande-valley-vaqueros-at-incarnate-word-cardinals",
      "research_confidence": {
        "level": "Limited",
        "basis": "The retained Tighten Up case passed with the largest adverse cushion among the four selections.",
        "limitations": "Primary projects against the selected side and two medium FCS source-quality risks remain. Not a probability."
      },
      "research_confidence_score": 59,
      "research_confidence_label": "Research-confidence score; not a probability or guarantee."
    },
    {
      "event_id": "401862803",
      "matchup": "Charlotte 49ers at Temple Owls",
      "market": "total",
      "pick": "Under 47.5 (-105)",
      "price": -105,
      "tier": "Free Pick B",
      "rationale": "Both ON and OFF total gates passed. Two medium risks require the lower Free tier; the retained adverse branch held a 5.96-point cushion at the frozen gate line. Fresh full-game total was confirmed before publication.",
      "market_source": "https://www.sportsbookreview.com/scores/college-football/matchup/378376/",
      "research_confidence": {
        "level": "Moderate",
        "basis": "Classic and Primary support the selected total and the retained adverse cushion remains positive.",
        "limitations": "Two medium availability/context risks remain. Not a calibrated probability."
      },
      "research_confidence_score": 69,
      "research_confidence_label": "Research-confidence score; not a probability or guarantee."
    }
  ],
  "excluded_event_ids": [
    "401858261",
    "401856725",
    "401868398",
    "401874037",
    "401867961",
    "401867870",
    "401858262"
  ],
  "tier_reason": "The selection correction promotes the four highest-ranked distinct OFF candidates after a fresh pregame market recheck. Pick of the Day requires no unresolved medium risk; Bonus permits one; Free tiers disclose two. No stake, calibrated probability, guarantee, or return claim is assigned.",
  "sourceGateFile": "football/postprice-tightenup-gates-final.json",
  "additionalGateFiles": [
    "football/selection-correction-market-recheck.json",
    "football/postfreeze-selected-review/houston-preview.json",
    "football/postfreeze-selected-review/byu-gameweek.json"
  ],
  "freeze_sha256": "8873b3c1d956f86e9323018975d09fe54aae65377b37ec52f9ed0b5a92742362",
  "no_forecast_changed": true,
  "confidence_methodology": {
    "name": "Selection research-confidence score",
    "range": "0\u2013100%",
    "meaning": "An evidence-and-risk score, not a probability of winning, covering, or going under.",
    "formula": [
      "Start at 50.",
      "Add 10 for Classic directional support.",
      "Add 10 for Primary directional support.",
      "Add 10 when the Tighten Up OFF gate passes.",
      "Add 5 when the worst retained adverse-case cushion is at least 3 points; otherwise add 2 when it remains positive.",
      "Subtract 8 for each unresolved medium risk.",
      "Do not assign scores when a high risk blocks the selection."
    ]
  }
}