Official final — October 5
New York Yankees 2, Tampa Bay Rays 5. Official league result. The original PASS remains NO GRADE, zero units. The pregame report is preserved below.
MLB · Monday, October 5, 2026 · 8:00 PM ET
New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays: Schlittler’s season profile meets a low-total playoff market
Tampa Bay won the series opener 1–0. Cam Schlittler and Freddy Peralta are listed probable for Game 2, with the market again pricing a low-scoring game.
Final Call
Probable starters and regular-season statistics are verified, but batting orders and present bullpen availability are unresolved. No independently validated postseason probability or starter-adjusted score is assigned.
No Pick of the Day, Bonus Pick or Free Pick is assigned to this matchup. No stake or numerical wagering confidence is assigned. A complete market is necessary for analysis; it does not create a price edge by itself.
Complete Market Snapshot
Monday edition: researched October 5. Prices and availability below are timestamped publication snapshots, not continuously live quotes.
| Market | New York Yankees | Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -131 | +109 |
| Run line | -1.5 (+142) | +1.5 (-172) |
| Total 6.5 | Over (-115) | Under (-105) |
Provider: DraftKings via ESPN · Captured: 2026-10-05T05:31:28.285Z (1:31 AM ET). Source market feed. Prices are a publication snapshot and may vary by operator or change before the game.
Feed-labeled opening fields: away ML -130; home ML +108; home line +1.5; total o6.5. These are one provider’s fields, not independently timestamped market-wide opening quotes. No claim about sharp money or betting volume is made.
Availability and Matchup Context
Aaron Judge appears on the secondary injury list as 10-Day-IL, and Griffin Jax is Day-To-Day. Those reports are not final batting-order or bullpen confirmation. The official live feed has no announced batting order at capture.
Secondary injury snapshot
Tampa Bay Rays
- Griffin Jax — Day-To-Day; Back. Source update: 2026-09-27T01:22Z.
- Gavin Lux — 60-Day-IL; Shoulder. Source update: 2026-09-11T21:41Z.
- Edwin Uceta — 60-Day-IL; Shoulder. Source update: 2026-08-15T02:52Z.
- Jonathan Heasley — 60-Day-IL; Elbow. Source update: 2026-06-08T18:24Z.
- Shane McClanahan — Out; Forearm. Source update: 2026-10-02T20:06Z.
New York Yankees
- Aaron Judge — 10-Day-IL; Calf. Source update: 2026-10-03T14:17Z.
- Fernando Cruz — 60-Day-IL; Elbow. Source update: 2026-09-25T23:17Z.
- Clarke Schmidt — 15-Day-IL; Biceps. Source update: 2026-09-30T22:22Z.
- Kervin Castro — 60-Day-IL; Elbow. Source update: 2026-08-26T20:37Z.
Reported player statuses from ESPN’s matchup injury snapshot, retrieved 2026-10-05T05:32:00.372Z. Day-to-day is not confirmed active, and an omitted player is not guaranteed to play. Official schedule and probable-pitcher sources are linked below.
Evidence and Scoring Context
Probable starters and regular-season statistics are verified, but batting orders and present bullpen availability are unresolved. No independently validated postseason probability or starter-adjusted score is assigned. No unsupported numerical forecast range or wagering-confidence percentage is assigned.
Schlittler’s 1.95 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 239 strikeouts in 193.2 innings compare favorably with Peralta’s 4.42 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 156 strikeouts in 169.0 innings. Those full-season descriptions do not account for today’s hitters, defensive alignment, pitch limits or postseason usage. Saturday’s one-run total is a single outcome, not evidence that another Under is correctly priced.
A likely winner and a favorable price are separate judgments. A -1.5 run line requires a two-run win; a one-run favorite win does not cover. The half-point total has no whole-number push outcome.
Seven-Desk Analysis
Parker Fields — Personnel
Official probable starters are Cam Schlittler and Freddy Peralta. Probable is a reported designation; the announced batting orders are not confirmed here. Aaron Judge appears on the secondary injury list as 10-Day-IL, and Griffin Jax is Day-To-Day. Those reports are not final batting-order or bullpen confirmation. The official live feed has no announced batting order at capture.
Uncle Sibursam — Season Context
Cam Schlittler: 193.2 regular-season innings, 1.95 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 239 strikeouts and 49 walks. Freddy Peralta: 169.0 regular-season innings, 4.42 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 156 strikeouts and 63 walks. New York Yankees relief workload on 2026-10-03: Ryan Weathers 1.0 IP/9 pitches; Paul Blackburn 1.2 IP/25 pitches; Brent Headrick 0.1 IP/12 pitches. Tampa Bay Rays relief workload on 2026-10-03: Bryan Baker 1.0 IP/14 pitches. Innings use baseball outs notation. Historical workload is not confirmation of current availability.
Gideon Marsh — Matchup
Schlittler’s 1.95 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 239 strikeouts in 193.2 innings compare favorably with Peralta’s 4.42 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 156 strikeouts in 169.0 innings. Those full-season descriptions do not account for today’s hitters, defensive alignment, pitch limits or postseason usage. Saturday’s one-run total is a single outcome, not evidence that another Under is correctly priced.
ConstitutionOwl — Schedule
8:00 PM ET at Tropicana Field. Official MLB AL Division Series schedule matched by game ID, teams and start time. The publication date follows America/New_York; Early-hour October 6 UTC start times in this slate belong to October 5 Eastern.
Polly Ticks — Conditions
Tropicana Field is an indoor venue. No outdoor-weather adjustment assigned.
Liberty Belle — Market
The captured home moneyline requires 47.85% wins to break even; the away price requires 56.71%. After normalizing the pair, the home market share is 45.76%. That share is market-implied, not our confidence. Over requires 53.49% and Under 51.22% at these prices, excluding pushes where applicable.
Warren Bullion — Synthesis
PASS / Stay Away. Probable starters and regular-season statistics are verified, but batting orders and present bullpen availability are unresolved. No independently validated postseason probability or starter-adjusted score is assigned. No stake, no wagering tier and no assigned wagering confidence. The official result will later be recorded without converting this decision into a retrospective selection.
Risks and Uncertainty
Aaron Judge appears on the secondary injury list as 10-Day-IL, and Griffin Jax is Day-To-Day. Those reports are not final batting-order or bullpen confirmation. The official live feed has no announced batting order at capture. A later price, player-status change or lineup announcement calls for a new assessment, not a silent edit to this published decision. Forecasts are informational, not guarantees or wagering advice. If you wager, use a licensed operator, set limits and never chase losses. Passing is a valid decision.
Sources and Method
- ESPN schedule, market or injury snapshot
- ESPN schedule, market or injury snapshot
- Official MLB schedule or statistics
- www.mlb.com — official schedule or team source
- Official MLB schedule or statistics
- Official MLB schedule or statistics
- Official MLB schedule or statistics
- Official MLB schedule or statistics
- Official MLB schedule or statistics
- Official MLB schedule or statistics
- Official MLB schedule or statistics
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