Official final — October 4
New York Jets 12, Chicago Bears 23. Official league result. The original PASS remains NO GRADE, zero units. The pregame report is preserved below.
NFL · Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
New York Jets at Chicago Bears: Chicago quarterback absence complicates the favorite’s price
New York Jets (1-2) visits Chicago Bears (2-1) in Week 4. Three-game records are descriptive context, not calibrated next-game probabilities.
Final Call
The early-season sample and reported personnel changes do not establish independently calibrated spread, total or win probabilities. No supported price edge is assigned.
No Pick of the Day, Bonus Pick or Free Pick is assigned to this matchup. No stake or numerical wagering confidence is assigned. A complete market is necessary for analysis; it does not create a price edge by itself.
Complete Market Snapshot
Sunday morning refresh: researched October 4. Prices and availability below are timestamped publication snapshots, not continuously live quotes. Earlier edition and revision record.
| Market | New York Jets | Chicago Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +154 | -185 |
| Spread | +3.5 (-108) | -3.5 (-112) |
| Total 43.5 | Over (+100) | Under (-120) |
Provider: DraftKings via ESPN · Captured: 2026-10-04T05:33:53.552Z (1:33 AM ET). Source market feed. Prices are a publication snapshot and may vary by operator or change before the game.
Feed-labeled opening fields: away ML +300; home ML -380; home line -8.5; total o45.5. These are one provider’s fields, not independently timestamped market-wide opening quotes. No claim about sharp money or betting volume is made.
Availability and Matchup Context
New York Jets: Breece Hall OUT; Francisco Mauigoa OUT; Adonai Mitchell OUT; Dylan Parham OUT; Mason Taylor OUT; Kingsley Enagbare QUESTIONABLE; Kenyon Sadiq QUESTIONABLE. Chicago Bears: Braxton Jones OUT; Caleb Williams OUT; Kyler Gordon OUT; Noah Sewell OUT; Shemar Turner OUT; Cam Lewis DOUBTFUL. Captured weekly designations are separate from secondary reserve lists and are not final active rosters.
New York Jets — official weekly designations
- Breece Hall (RB): OUT — Quad
- Francisco Mauigoa (LB): OUT — Quad
- Adonai Mitchell (WR): OUT — Finger
- Dylan Parham (OL): OUT — Knee
- Mason Taylor (TE): OUT — Thumb
- Kingsley Enagbare (EDGE): QUESTIONABLE — Knee
- Kenyon Sadiq (TE): QUESTIONABLE — Back
Official club injury report · Captured 2026-10-04T05:33:54.810Z. Final active list not yet confirmed.
Chicago Bears — official weekly designations
- Braxton Jones (OL): OUT — Knee
- Caleb Williams (QB): OUT — Hamstring
- Kyler Gordon (DB): OUT — Calf
- Noah Sewell (LB): OUT — Achilles
- Shemar Turner (DL): OUT — Knee
- Cam Lewis (DB): DOUBTFUL — Hip
Official club injury report · Captured 2026-10-04T05:33:54.178Z. Final active list not yet confirmed.
Secondary injury snapshot
Chicago Bears
- Anthony Johnson Jr. — Injured Reserve; Undisclosed. Source update: 2026-10-04T05:01Z.
- Braxton Jones — Injured Reserve; Knee. Source update: 2026-10-04T01:02Z.
- Cam Lewis — Doubtful; Leg. Source update: 2026-10-02T21:47Z.
- Caleb Williams — Out; Hamstring. Source update: 2026-10-02T17:00Z.
- Kyler Gordon — Out; Calf. Source update: 2026-10-01T00:31Z.
New York Jets
- Dylan Parham — Out; Knee. Source update: 2026-10-03T00:52Z.
- Kenyon Sadiq — Questionable; Back. Source update: 2026-10-02T19:47Z.
- Adonai Mitchell — Out; Finger. Source update: 2026-10-02T15:31Z.
- Kiko Mauigoa — Out; Quadriceps. Source update: 2026-10-02T15:26Z.
- Breece Hall — Out; Quadriceps. Source update: 2026-10-02T15:26Z.
Reported player statuses from ESPN’s matchup injury snapshot, retrieved 2026-10-04T05:33:53.939Z. Day-to-day is not confirmed active, and an omitted player is not guaranteed to play. Official schedule and league/team sources are linked below.
Evidence and Scoring Context
The early-season sample and reported personnel changes do not establish independently calibrated spread, total or win probabilities. No supported price edge is assigned. No unsupported numerical forecast range or wagering-confidence percentage is assigned.
Current DraftKings snapshot: Chicago Bears -3.5 (-112); total 43.5, Over +100 / Under -120. Chicago’s reported quarterback absence combines with offensive-line and skill-position losses on both teams. Replacement efficiency and drive success remain unresolved, so a low-looking total does not establish an under edge.
A likely winner and a favorable price are separate judgments. Spread and total probabilities cannot be substituted for the moneyline probability. The half-point total has no whole-number push outcome.
Seven-Desk Analysis
Parker Fields — Personnel
New York Jets: Breece Hall OUT; Francisco Mauigoa OUT; Adonai Mitchell OUT; Dylan Parham OUT; Mason Taylor OUT; Kingsley Enagbare QUESTIONABLE; Kenyon Sadiq QUESTIONABLE. Chicago Bears: Braxton Jones OUT; Caleb Williams OUT; Kyler Gordon OUT; Noah Sewell OUT; Shemar Turner OUT; Cam Lewis DOUBTFUL. Captured weekly designations are separate from secondary reserve lists and are not final active rosters.
Uncle Sibursam — Season Context
New York Jets (1-2) visits Chicago Bears (2-1) in Week 4. Three-game records are descriptive context, not calibrated next-game probabilities.
Gideon Marsh — Matchup
Current DraftKings snapshot: Chicago Bears -3.5 (-112); total 43.5, Over +100 / Under -120. Chicago’s reported quarterback absence combines with offensive-line and skill-position losses on both teams. Replacement efficiency and drive success remain unresolved, so a low-looking total does not establish an under edge.
ConstitutionOwl — Schedule
1:00 PM ET at Soldier Field. Official league schedule confirms the teams, venue and start time; no unsupported travel adjustment is applied. The publication date follows America/New_York; The early-hour October 5 UTC start times in this slate belong to October 4 Eastern.
Polly Ticks — Conditions
NWS near scheduled start (2026-10-04T12:00:00-05:00): 67°F, sunny, WNW wind 10 mph, precipitation chance 0%. This nearby grid forecast is not a guarantee of field conditions; no unsupported scoring adjustment is applied.
Liberty Belle — Market
The captured home moneyline requires 64.91% wins to break even; the away price requires 39.37%. After normalizing the pair, the home market share is 62.25%. That share is market-implied, not our confidence. Over requires 50.00% and Under 54.55% at these prices, excluding pushes where applicable.
Warren Bullion — Synthesis
PASS / Stay Away. The early-season sample and reported personnel changes do not establish independently calibrated spread, total or win probabilities. No supported price edge is assigned. No stake, no wagering tier and no assigned wagering confidence. The official result will later be recorded without converting this decision into a retrospective selection.
Risks and Uncertainty
New York Jets: Breece Hall OUT; Francisco Mauigoa OUT; Adonai Mitchell OUT; Dylan Parham OUT; Mason Taylor OUT; Kingsley Enagbare QUESTIONABLE; Kenyon Sadiq QUESTIONABLE. Chicago Bears: Braxton Jones OUT; Caleb Williams OUT; Kyler Gordon OUT; Noah Sewell OUT; Shemar Turner OUT; Cam Lewis DOUBTFUL. Captured weekly designations are separate from secondary reserve lists and are not final active rosters. A later price, player-status change or lineup announcement calls for a new assessment, not a silent edit to this published decision. Forecasts are informational, not guarantees or wagering advice. If you wager, use a licensed operator, set limits and never chase losses. Passing is a valid decision.
Sources and Method
- ESPN schedule, market or injury snapshot
- ESPN schedule, market or injury snapshot
- www.newyorkjets.com — official schedule or team source
- www.chicagobears.com — official schedule or team source
- www.nfl.com — official schedule or team source
- www.nfl.com — official schedule or team source
- National Weather Service forecast
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