Official final — October 4
Miami Dolphins 10, Minnesota Vikings 15. Official league result. The original PASS remains NO GRADE, zero units. The pregame report is preserved below.
NFL · Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 4:05 PM ET
Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings: Minnesota’s ten-point line survives no automatic shortcut
Miami Dolphins (0-3) visits Minnesota Vikings (3-0) in Week 4. Three-game records are descriptive context, not calibrated next-game probabilities.
Final Call
The early-season sample and reported personnel changes do not establish independently calibrated spread, total or win probabilities. No supported price edge is assigned.
No Pick of the Day, Bonus Pick or Free Pick is assigned to this matchup. No stake or numerical wagering confidence is assigned. A complete market is necessary for analysis; it does not create a price edge by itself.
Complete Market Snapshot
Sunday morning refresh: researched October 4. Prices and availability below are timestamped publication snapshots, not continuously live quotes. Earlier edition and revision record.
| Market | Miami Dolphins | Minnesota Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +390 | -520 |
| Spread | +10 (-115) | -10 (-105) |
| Total 38.5 | Over (-112) | Under (-108) |
Provider: DraftKings via ESPN · Captured: 2026-10-04T05:33:53.552Z (1:33 AM ET). Source market feed. Prices are a publication snapshot and may vary by operator or change before the game.
Feed-labeled opening fields: away ML +310; home ML -395; home line -7.5; total o43.5. These are one provider’s fields, not independently timestamped market-wide opening quotes. No claim about sharp money or betting volume is made.
Availability and Matchup Context
Miami Dolphins: Rob Beal Jr. OUT; Caleb Douglas OUT; Storm Duck OUT. Minnesota Vikings: Justin Jefferson OUT; Brett Thorson OUT; Charles Demmings OUT. Captured weekly designations are separate from secondary reserve lists and are not final active rosters.
Miami Dolphins — official weekly designations
- Rob Beal Jr. (EDGE): OUT — Hamstring
- Caleb Douglas (WR): OUT — Ankle
- Storm Duck (CB): OUT — Knee
Official club injury report · Captured 2026-10-04T05:33:54.681Z. Final active list not yet confirmed.
Minnesota Vikings — official weekly designations
- Justin Jefferson (WR): OUT — Ankle
- Brett Thorson (P): OUT — Right Hamstring
- Charles Demmings (CB): OUT — Hamstring
Official club injury report · Captured 2026-10-04T05:33:54.684Z. Final active list not yet confirmed.
Secondary injury snapshot
Minnesota Vikings
- Justin Jefferson — Out; Ankle. Source update: 2026-10-03T13:33Z.
- Brett Thorson — Out; Hamstring. Source update: 2026-10-03T01:10Z.
- Charles Demmings — Out; Hamstring. Source update: 2026-10-03T01:08Z.
- Josh Oliver — Injured Reserve; Biceps. Source update: 2026-09-30T00:26Z.
- Nick Samac — Injured Reserve; Knee. Source update: 2026-09-26T21:28Z.
Miami Dolphins
- Robert Beal Jr. — Out; Hamstring. Source update: 2026-10-03T01:01Z.
- Kenneth Grant — Injured Reserve; Leg. Source update: 2026-10-02T15:37Z.
- Caleb Douglas — Out; Ankle. Source update: 2026-10-02T15:08Z.
- Storm Duck — Out; Knee. Source update: 2026-10-01T01:21Z.
- De'Von Achane — Injured Reserve; Knee - ACL. Source update: 2026-09-28T20:10Z.
Reported player statuses from ESPN’s matchup injury snapshot, retrieved 2026-10-04T05:33:53.951Z. Day-to-day is not confirmed active, and an omitted player is not guaranteed to play. Official schedule and league/team sources are linked below.
Evidence and Scoring Context
The early-season sample and reported personnel changes do not establish independently calibrated spread, total or win probabilities. No supported price edge is assigned. No unsupported numerical forecast range or wagering-confidence percentage is assigned.
Current DraftKings snapshot: Minnesota Vikings -10 (-105); total 38.5, Over -112 / Under -108. Minnesota’s reported receiver absence and Miami’s defensive losses create opposing effects. A ten-point-cover estimate needs its own scoring distribution, especially alongside a low total.
A likely winner and a favorable price are separate judgments. Spread and total probabilities cannot be substituted for the moneyline probability. The half-point total has no whole-number push outcome.
Seven-Desk Analysis
Parker Fields — Personnel
Miami Dolphins: Rob Beal Jr. OUT; Caleb Douglas OUT; Storm Duck OUT. Minnesota Vikings: Justin Jefferson OUT; Brett Thorson OUT; Charles Demmings OUT. Captured weekly designations are separate from secondary reserve lists and are not final active rosters.
Uncle Sibursam — Season Context
Miami Dolphins (0-3) visits Minnesota Vikings (3-0) in Week 4. Three-game records are descriptive context, not calibrated next-game probabilities.
Gideon Marsh — Matchup
Current DraftKings snapshot: Minnesota Vikings -10 (-105); total 38.5, Over -112 / Under -108. Minnesota’s reported receiver absence and Miami’s defensive losses create opposing effects. A ten-point-cover estimate needs its own scoring distribution, especially alongside a low total.
ConstitutionOwl — Schedule
4:05 PM ET at U.S. Bank Stadium. Official league schedule confirms the teams, venue and start time; no unsupported travel adjustment is applied. The publication date follows America/New_York; The early-hour October 5 UTC start times in this slate belong to October 4 Eastern.
Polly Ticks — Conditions
Indoor venue; no weather adjustment assigned.
Liberty Belle — Market
The captured home moneyline requires 83.87% wins to break even; the away price requires 20.41%. After normalizing the pair, the home market share is 80.43%. That share is market-implied, not our confidence. Over requires 52.83% and Under 51.92% at these prices, excluding pushes where applicable.
Warren Bullion — Synthesis
PASS / Stay Away. The early-season sample and reported personnel changes do not establish independently calibrated spread, total or win probabilities. No supported price edge is assigned. No stake, no wagering tier and no assigned wagering confidence. The official result will later be recorded without converting this decision into a retrospective selection.
Risks and Uncertainty
Miami Dolphins: Rob Beal Jr. OUT; Caleb Douglas OUT; Storm Duck OUT. Minnesota Vikings: Justin Jefferson OUT; Brett Thorson OUT; Charles Demmings OUT. Captured weekly designations are separate from secondary reserve lists and are not final active rosters. A later price, player-status change or lineup announcement calls for a new assessment, not a silent edit to this published decision. Forecasts are informational, not guarantees or wagering advice. If you wager, use a licensed operator, set limits and never chase losses. Passing is a valid decision.
Sources and Method
- ESPN schedule, market or injury snapshot
- ESPN schedule, market or injury snapshot
- www.miamidolphins.com — official schedule or team source
- www.vikings.com — official schedule or team source
- www.nfl.com — official schedule or team source
- www.nfl.com — official schedule or team source
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