Official final — October 4
Indianapolis Colts 30, Washington Commanders 13. Official league result. The original PASS remains NO GRADE, zero units. The pregame report is preserved below.
NFL · Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 9:30 AM ET
Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders: London changes the setting; quarterback availability changes the question
Indianapolis Colts (1-2) visits Washington Commanders (1-2) in Week 4 at a neutral London venue. Three-game records are descriptive context, not calibrated next-game probabilities.
Final Call
The early-season sample and reported personnel changes do not establish independently calibrated spread, total or win probabilities. No supported price edge is assigned.
No Pick of the Day, Bonus Pick or Free Pick is assigned to this matchup. No stake or numerical wagering confidence is assigned. A complete market is necessary for analysis; it does not create a price edge by itself.
Complete Market Snapshot
Sunday morning refresh: researched October 4. Prices and availability below are timestamped publication snapshots, not continuously live quotes. Earlier edition and revision record.
| Market | Indianapolis Colts | Washington Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -205 | +170 |
| Spread | -4.5 (-110) | +4.5 (-110) |
| Total 46.5 | Over (-110) | Under (-110) |
Provider: DraftKings via ESPN · Captured: 2026-10-04T05:33:53.552Z (1:33 AM ET). Source market feed. Prices are a publication snapshot and may vary by operator or change before the game.
Feed-labeled opening fields: away ML -110; home ML -110; home line -1.5; total o48.5. These are one provider’s fields, not independently timestamped market-wide opening quotes. No claim about sharp money or betting volume is made.
Availability and Matchup Context
Indianapolis Colts: Keenan Allen OUT; Ashton Dulin QUESTIONABLE. Washington Commanders: Percy Butler QUESTIONABLE; Sam Cosmi OUT; Nick Cross OUT; Jayden Daniels OUT; Terry McLaurin QUESTIONABLE; Rachaad White OUT. Captured weekly designations are separate from secondary reserve lists and are not final active rosters. Terry McLaurin is QUESTIONABLE on the official club report and DOUBTFUL in the secondary report; the discrepancy is unresolved.
Indianapolis Colts — official weekly designations
- Keenan Allen (WR): OUT — Rest, Groin
- Ashton Dulin (WR): QUESTIONABLE — Ankle
Official club injury report · Captured 2026-10-04T05:33:54.448Z. Final active list not yet confirmed.
Washington Commanders — official weekly designations
- Percy Butler (S): QUESTIONABLE — Concussion
- Sam Cosmi (G): OUT — Concussion, Throat
- Nick Cross (S): OUT — Illness
- Jayden Daniels (QB): OUT — Elbow
- Terry McLaurin (WR): QUESTIONABLE — Hamstring
- Rachaad White (RB): OUT — Shoulder
Official club injury report · Captured 2026-10-04T05:33:55.019Z. Final active list not yet confirmed.
Secondary injury snapshot
Washington Commanders
- Terry McLaurin — Doubtful; Hamstring. Source update: 2026-10-03T14:42Z.
- Rachaad White — Out; Shoulder. Source update: 2026-10-02T17:21Z.
- Jayden Daniels — Out; Elbow. Source update: 2026-10-02T14:09Z.
- Nick Cross — Out; Illness. Source update: 2026-09-30T02:02Z.
- Sam Cosmi — Out; Concussion. Source update: 2026-09-30T01:56Z.
Indianapolis Colts
- Keenan Allen — Out; Groin. Source update: 2026-10-03T14:37Z.
- Mo Alie-Cox — Questionable; Illness. Source update: 2026-10-01T21:25Z.
- Alec Pierce — Injured Reserve; Heel. Source update: 2026-09-28T18:38Z.
- Micheal Clemons — Injured Reserve; Toe. Source update: 2026-09-23T00:30Z.
- Carson Towt — Injured Reserve; Undisclosed. Source update: 2026-09-08T20:42Z.
Reported player statuses from ESPN’s matchup injury snapshot, retrieved 2026-10-04T05:33:53.699Z. Day-to-day is not confirmed active, and an omitted player is not guaranteed to play. Official schedule and league/team sources are linked below.
Evidence and Scoring Context
The early-season sample and reported personnel changes do not establish independently calibrated spread, total or win probabilities. No supported price edge is assigned. No unsupported numerical forecast range or wagering-confidence percentage is assigned.
Current DraftKings snapshot: Washington Commanders +4.5 (-110); total 46.5, Over -110 / Under -110. London is a neutral venue. Washington’s reported quarterback absence and pass-catcher uncertainty affect both protection and possession efficiency; no ordinary home-field adjustment or replacement-quarterback efficiency is assumed.
A likely winner and a favorable price are separate judgments. Spread and total probabilities cannot be substituted for the moneyline probability. The half-point total has no whole-number push outcome.
Seven-Desk Analysis
Parker Fields — Personnel
Indianapolis Colts: Keenan Allen OUT; Ashton Dulin QUESTIONABLE. Washington Commanders: Percy Butler QUESTIONABLE; Sam Cosmi OUT; Nick Cross OUT; Jayden Daniels OUT; Terry McLaurin QUESTIONABLE; Rachaad White OUT. Captured weekly designations are separate from secondary reserve lists and are not final active rosters. Terry McLaurin is QUESTIONABLE on the official club report and DOUBTFUL in the secondary report; the discrepancy is unresolved.
Uncle Sibursam — Season Context
Indianapolis Colts (1-2) visits Washington Commanders (1-2) in Week 4 at a neutral London venue. Three-game records are descriptive context, not calibrated next-game probabilities.
Gideon Marsh — Matchup
Current DraftKings snapshot: Washington Commanders +4.5 (-110); total 46.5, Over -110 / Under -110. London is a neutral venue. Washington’s reported quarterback absence and pass-catcher uncertainty affect both protection and possession efficiency; no ordinary home-field adjustment or replacement-quarterback efficiency is assumed.
ConstitutionOwl — Schedule
9:30 AM ET at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Neutral-site London game; do not interpret the designated home team as an ordinary home-field advantage. The publication date follows America/New_York; The early-hour October 5 UTC start times in this slate belong to October 4 Eastern.
Polly Ticks — Conditions
London forecast not independently captured. No weather adjustment assigned.
Liberty Belle — Market
The captured home moneyline requires 37.04% wins to break even; the away price requires 67.21%. After normalizing the pair, the home market share is 35.53%. That share is market-implied, not our confidence. Over requires 52.38% and Under 52.38% at these prices, excluding pushes where applicable.
Warren Bullion — Synthesis
PASS / Stay Away. The early-season sample and reported personnel changes do not establish independently calibrated spread, total or win probabilities. No supported price edge is assigned. No stake, no wagering tier and no assigned wagering confidence. The official result will later be recorded without converting this decision into a retrospective selection.
Risks and Uncertainty
Indianapolis Colts: Keenan Allen OUT; Ashton Dulin QUESTIONABLE. Washington Commanders: Percy Butler QUESTIONABLE; Sam Cosmi OUT; Nick Cross OUT; Jayden Daniels OUT; Terry McLaurin QUESTIONABLE; Rachaad White OUT. Captured weekly designations are separate from secondary reserve lists and are not final active rosters. Terry McLaurin is QUESTIONABLE on the official club report and DOUBTFUL in the secondary report; the discrepancy is unresolved. A later price, player-status change or lineup announcement calls for a new assessment, not a silent edit to this published decision. Forecasts are informational, not guarantees or wagering advice. If you wager, use a licensed operator, set limits and never chase losses. Passing is a valid decision.
Sources and Method
- ESPN schedule, market or injury snapshot
- ESPN schedule, market or injury snapshot
- www.colts.com — official schedule or team source
- www.commanders.com — official schedule or team source
- www.nfl.com — official schedule or team source
- www.nfl.com — official schedule or team source
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