Official final — October 4
Green Bay Packers 17, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14. Official league result. The original PASS remains NO GRADE, zero units. The pregame report is preserved below.
NFL · Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Tampa Bay’s quarterback report comes before total analysis
Green Bay Packers (1-2) visits Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3) in Week 4. Three-game records are descriptive context, not calibrated next-game probabilities.
Final Call
The early-season sample and reported personnel changes do not establish independently calibrated spread, total or win probabilities. No supported price edge is assigned.
No Pick of the Day, Bonus Pick or Free Pick is assigned to this matchup. No stake or numerical wagering confidence is assigned. A complete market is necessary for analysis; it does not create a price edge by itself.
Complete Market Snapshot
Sunday morning refresh: researched October 4. Prices and availability below are timestamped publication snapshots, not continuously live quotes. Earlier edition and revision record.
| Market | Green Bay Packers | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -166 | +140 |
| Spread | -3 (-112) | +3 (-108) |
| Total 38.5 | Over (-115) | Under (-105) |
Provider: DraftKings via ESPN · Captured: 2026-10-04T05:33:53.552Z (1:33 AM ET). Source market feed. Prices are a publication snapshot and may vary by operator or change before the game.
Feed-labeled opening fields: away ML -125; home ML +105; home line +1.5; total o47.5. These are one provider’s fields, not independently timestamped market-wide opening quotes. No claim about sharp money or betting volume is made.
Availability and Matchup Context
Green Bay Packers: Aaron Banks OUT; Warren Brinson OUT; Jager Burton QUESTIONABLE; Anthony Campbell OUT; Jacob Monk OUT. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Rueben Bain Jr. OUT; SirVocea Dennis QUESTIONABLE; Ko Kieft OUT; Baker Mayfield OUT; Benjamin Morrison OUT; Rakeem Nunez-Roches QUESTIONABLE; Jacob Parrish QUESTIONABLE. Captured weekly designations are separate from secondary reserve lists and are not final active rosters.
Green Bay Packers — official weekly designations
- Aaron Banks (G): OUT — Knee / Toe
- Warren Brinson (DT): OUT — Calf / Groin
- Jager Burton (C/G): QUESTIONABLE — Groin
- Anthony Campbell (DT): OUT — Ankle
- Jacob Monk (C/G): OUT — Quadricep
Official club injury report · Captured 2026-10-04T05:33:54.329Z. Final active list not yet confirmed.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers — official weekly designations
- Rueben Bain Jr. (OLB): OUT — Groin/Shoulder
- SirVocea Dennis (LB): QUESTIONABLE — Calf/Personal
- Ko Kieft (TE): OUT — Elbow
- Baker Mayfield (QB): OUT — Right Thumb
- Benjamin Morrison (CB): OUT — Quad
- Rakeem Nunez-Roches (DL): QUESTIONABLE — Ankle/Foot
- Jacob Parrish (CB): QUESTIONABLE — Personal
Official club injury report · Captured 2026-10-04T05:33:54.982Z. Final active list not yet confirmed.
Secondary injury snapshot
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- SirVocea Dennis — Questionable; Calf. Source update: 2026-10-02T23:08Z.
- Benjamin Morrison — Out; Quadriceps. Source update: 2026-10-02T18:28Z.
- Ko Kieft — Out; Elbow. Source update: 2026-10-02T18:18Z.
- Rueben Bain Jr. — Out; Groin. Source update: 2026-10-02T18:10Z.
- Rakeem Nunez-Roches — Questionable; Ankle. Source update: 2026-09-30T21:45Z.
Green Bay Packers
- Warren Brinson — Injured Reserve; Calf. Source update: 2026-10-03T23:49Z.
- Jager Burton — Questionable; Groin. Source update: 2026-10-03T01:32Z.
- Jacob Monk — Out; Quadriceps. Source update: 2026-10-03T01:23Z.
- Aaron Banks — Out; Toe. Source update: 2026-10-03T01:21Z.
- Anthony Campbell — Out; Ankle. Source update: 2026-10-03T01:19Z.
Reported player statuses from ESPN’s matchup injury snapshot, retrieved 2026-10-04T05:33:53.863Z. Day-to-day is not confirmed active, and an omitted player is not guaranteed to play. Official schedule and league/team sources are linked below.
Evidence and Scoring Context
The early-season sample and reported personnel changes do not establish independently calibrated spread, total or win probabilities. No supported price edge is assigned. No unsupported numerical forecast range or wagering-confidence percentage is assigned.
Current DraftKings snapshot: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 (-108); total 38.5, Over -115 / Under -105. Tampa Bay reports its starting quarterback out. Replacement efficiency is unresolved, while Green Bay has offensive-line designations. The three-point spread admits a push; a likely winner alone is insufficient.
A likely winner and a favorable price are separate judgments. Spread and total probabilities cannot be substituted for the moneyline probability. The half-point total has no whole-number push outcome.
Seven-Desk Analysis
Parker Fields — Personnel
Green Bay Packers: Aaron Banks OUT; Warren Brinson OUT; Jager Burton QUESTIONABLE; Anthony Campbell OUT; Jacob Monk OUT. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Rueben Bain Jr. OUT; SirVocea Dennis QUESTIONABLE; Ko Kieft OUT; Baker Mayfield OUT; Benjamin Morrison OUT; Rakeem Nunez-Roches QUESTIONABLE; Jacob Parrish QUESTIONABLE. Captured weekly designations are separate from secondary reserve lists and are not final active rosters.
Uncle Sibursam — Season Context
Green Bay Packers (1-2) visits Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3) in Week 4. Three-game records are descriptive context, not calibrated next-game probabilities.
Gideon Marsh — Matchup
Current DraftKings snapshot: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 (-108); total 38.5, Over -115 / Under -105. Tampa Bay reports its starting quarterback out. Replacement efficiency is unresolved, while Green Bay has offensive-line designations. The three-point spread admits a push; a likely winner alone is insufficient.
ConstitutionOwl — Schedule
1:00 PM ET at Raymond James Stadium. Official league schedule confirms the teams, venue and start time; no unsupported travel adjustment is applied. The publication date follows America/New_York; The early-hour October 5 UTC start times in this slate belong to October 4 Eastern.
Polly Ticks — Conditions
NWS near scheduled start (2026-10-04T13:00:00-04:00): 88°F, partly sunny, SSE wind 7 mph, precipitation chance 7%. This nearby grid forecast is not a guarantee of field conditions; no unsupported scoring adjustment is applied.
Liberty Belle — Market
The captured home moneyline requires 41.67% wins to break even; the away price requires 62.41%. After normalizing the pair, the home market share is 40.04%. That share is market-implied, not our confidence. Over requires 53.49% and Under 51.22% at these prices, excluding pushes where applicable.
Warren Bullion — Synthesis
PASS / Stay Away. The early-season sample and reported personnel changes do not establish independently calibrated spread, total or win probabilities. No supported price edge is assigned. No stake, no wagering tier and no assigned wagering confidence. The official result will later be recorded without converting this decision into a retrospective selection.
Risks and Uncertainty
Green Bay Packers: Aaron Banks OUT; Warren Brinson OUT; Jager Burton QUESTIONABLE; Anthony Campbell OUT; Jacob Monk OUT. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Rueben Bain Jr. OUT; SirVocea Dennis QUESTIONABLE; Ko Kieft OUT; Baker Mayfield OUT; Benjamin Morrison OUT; Rakeem Nunez-Roches QUESTIONABLE; Jacob Parrish QUESTIONABLE. Captured weekly designations are separate from secondary reserve lists and are not final active rosters. A later price, player-status change or lineup announcement calls for a new assessment, not a silent edit to this published decision. Forecasts are informational, not guarantees or wagering advice. If you wager, use a licensed operator, set limits and never chase losses. Passing is a valid decision.
Sources and Method
- ESPN schedule, market or injury snapshot
- ESPN schedule, market or injury snapshot
- www.packers.com — official schedule or team source
- www.buccaneers.com — official schedule or team source
- www.nfl.com — official schedule or team source
- www.nfl.com — official schedule or team source
- National Weather Service forecast
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