Official final — October 4
Denver Broncos 14, San Francisco 49ers 24. Official league result. The original PASS remains NO GRADE, zero units. The pregame report is preserved below.
NFL · Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 4:25 PM ET
Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers: San Francisco’s pass-rush losses meet a three-point price
Denver Broncos (2-1) visits San Francisco 49ers (3-0) in Week 4. Three-game records are descriptive context, not calibrated next-game probabilities.
Final Call
The early-season sample and reported personnel changes do not establish independently calibrated spread, total or win probabilities. No supported price edge is assigned.
No Pick of the Day, Bonus Pick or Free Pick is assigned to this matchup. No stake or numerical wagering confidence is assigned. A complete market is necessary for analysis; it does not create a price edge by itself.
Complete Market Snapshot
Sunday morning refresh: researched October 4. Prices and availability below are timestamped publication snapshots, not continuously live quotes. Earlier edition and revision record.
| Market | Denver Broncos | San Francisco 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +124 | -148 |
| Spread | +3 (-120) | -3 (+100) |
| Total 48.5 | Over (-105) | Under (-115) |
Provider: DraftKings via ESPN · Captured: 2026-10-04T05:33:53.552Z (1:33 AM ET). Source market feed. Prices are a publication snapshot and may vary by operator or change before the game.
Feed-labeled opening fields: away ML +114; home ML -135; home line -2.5; total o46.5. These are one provider’s fields, not independently timestamped market-wide opening quotes. No claim about sharp money or betting volume is made.
Availability and Matchup Context
Denver Broncos: Dondrea Tillman OUT. San Francisco 49ers: Nick Bosa OUT; Jaden Dugger QUESTIONABLE; Mike Evans QUESTIONABLE; Dre Greenlaw QUESTIONABLE; James Thompson Jr. OUT; Keion White QUESTIONABLE; Mykel Williams OUT. Captured weekly designations are separate from secondary reserve lists and are not final active rosters.
Denver Broncos — official weekly designations
- Dondrea Tillman (OLB): OUT — Hamstring
Official club injury report · Captured 2026-10-04T05:33:54.302Z. Final active list not yet confirmed.
San Francisco 49ers — official weekly designations
- Nick Bosa (DL): OUT — Knee, Calf
- Jaden Dugger (LB): QUESTIONABLE — Shoulder
- Mike Evans (WR): QUESTIONABLE — Ribs
- Dre Greenlaw (LB): QUESTIONABLE — Quadricep
- James Thompson Jr. (DL): OUT — Ankle
- Keion White (DL): QUESTIONABLE — Hamstring
- Mykel Williams (DL): OUT — Knee
Official club injury report · Captured 2026-10-04T05:33:54.871Z. Final active list not yet confirmed.
Secondary injury snapshot
San Francisco 49ers
- Dre Greenlaw — Questionable; Quadriceps. Source update: 2026-10-03T00:43Z.
- Jaden Dugger — Questionable; Shoulder. Source update: 2026-10-02T22:12Z.
- Christian Kirk — Injured Reserve; Calf. Source update: 2026-10-02T21:08Z.
- Mike Evans — Questionable; Ribs. Source update: 2026-10-02T21:08Z.
- Mykel Williams — Out; Knee - ACL. Source update: 2026-09-30T23:11Z.
Denver Broncos
- Dondrea Tillman — Out; Hamstring. Source update: 2026-10-03T01:40Z.
- Jonah Coleman — Injured Reserve; Ankle. Source update: 2026-09-26T20:36Z.
- Jonathon Cooper — Out; Personal. Source update: 2026-08-31T23:50Z.
- Nick Gargiulo — Out; Knee - ACL. Source update: 2026-08-31T23:24Z.
- Frank Crum — Injured Reserve; Undisclosed. Source update: 2026-08-31T23:20Z.
Reported player statuses from ESPN’s matchup injury snapshot, retrieved 2026-10-04T05:33:53.956Z. Day-to-day is not confirmed active, and an omitted player is not guaranteed to play. Official schedule and league/team sources are linked below.
Evidence and Scoring Context
The early-season sample and reported personnel changes do not establish independently calibrated spread, total or win probabilities. No supported price edge is assigned. No unsupported numerical forecast range or wagering-confidence percentage is assigned.
Current DraftKings snapshot: San Francisco 49ers -3 (+100); total 48.5, Over -105 / Under -115. San Francisco’s reported pass-rush losses affect the matchup, while the opposite spread prices have unequal break-even requirements. No numerical player adjustment or calibrated cover probability is invented.
A likely winner and a favorable price are separate judgments. Spread and total probabilities cannot be substituted for the moneyline probability. The half-point total has no whole-number push outcome.
Seven-Desk Analysis
Parker Fields — Personnel
Denver Broncos: Dondrea Tillman OUT. San Francisco 49ers: Nick Bosa OUT; Jaden Dugger QUESTIONABLE; Mike Evans QUESTIONABLE; Dre Greenlaw QUESTIONABLE; James Thompson Jr. OUT; Keion White QUESTIONABLE; Mykel Williams OUT. Captured weekly designations are separate from secondary reserve lists and are not final active rosters.
Uncle Sibursam — Season Context
Denver Broncos (2-1) visits San Francisco 49ers (3-0) in Week 4. Three-game records are descriptive context, not calibrated next-game probabilities.
Gideon Marsh — Matchup
Current DraftKings snapshot: San Francisco 49ers -3 (+100); total 48.5, Over -105 / Under -115. San Francisco’s reported pass-rush losses affect the matchup, while the opposite spread prices have unequal break-even requirements. No numerical player adjustment or calibrated cover probability is invented.
ConstitutionOwl — Schedule
4:25 PM ET at Levi's Stadium. Official league schedule confirms the teams, venue and start time; no unsupported travel adjustment is applied. The publication date follows America/New_York; The early-hour October 5 UTC start times in this slate belong to October 4 Eastern.
Polly Ticks — Conditions
NWS near scheduled start (2026-10-04T13:00:00-07:00): 87°F, partly sunny, NW wind 2 mph, precipitation chance 1%. This nearby grid forecast is not a guarantee of field conditions; no unsupported scoring adjustment is applied.
Liberty Belle — Market
The captured home moneyline requires 59.68% wins to break even; the away price requires 44.64%. After normalizing the pair, the home market share is 57.21%. That share is market-implied, not our confidence. Over requires 51.22% and Under 53.49% at these prices, excluding pushes where applicable.
Warren Bullion — Synthesis
PASS / Stay Away. The early-season sample and reported personnel changes do not establish independently calibrated spread, total or win probabilities. No supported price edge is assigned. No stake, no wagering tier and no assigned wagering confidence. The official result will later be recorded without converting this decision into a retrospective selection.
Risks and Uncertainty
Denver Broncos: Dondrea Tillman OUT. San Francisco 49ers: Nick Bosa OUT; Jaden Dugger QUESTIONABLE; Mike Evans QUESTIONABLE; Dre Greenlaw QUESTIONABLE; James Thompson Jr. OUT; Keion White QUESTIONABLE; Mykel Williams OUT. Captured weekly designations are separate from secondary reserve lists and are not final active rosters. A later price, player-status change or lineup announcement calls for a new assessment, not a silent edit to this published decision. Forecasts are informational, not guarantees or wagering advice. If you wager, use a licensed operator, set limits and never chase losses. Passing is a valid decision.
Sources and Method
- ESPN schedule, market or injury snapshot
- ESPN schedule, market or injury snapshot
- www.denverbroncos.com — official schedule or team source
- www.49ers.com — official schedule or team source
- www.nfl.com — official schedule or team source
- www.nfl.com — official schedule or team source
- National Weather Service forecast
Edition assessment policy · Results tracker · Search all Sports stories