Official final — October 1
Indiana Fever 83, Las Vegas Aces 94. Official league result. The original PASS remains NO GRADE, zero units. The pregame report is preserved below.
WNBA · Thursday, October 1, 2026 · 9:00 PM ET
Indiana Fever at Las Vegas Aces: Clark and Boston status matter more than a Game 3 shortcut
Indiana and Las Vegas return to Las Vegas for the deciding game of their first-round series. The official WNBA game record confirms a 9 p.m. ET start and a 1–1 series.
Final Call
The deciding Game 3 has unresolved reported availability for Caitlin Clark and Aliyah Boston. Their status and playoff rotations are not captured in a validated matchup model. A complete market does not establish an edge.
No Pick of the Day, Bonus Pick or Free Pick is assigned to this matchup. No stake or numerical wagering confidence is assigned. A complete market is necessary for analysis; it does not create a price edge by itself.
Complete Market Snapshot
| Market | Indiana Fever | Las Vegas Aces |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +150 | -180 |
| Spread | +4.5 (-115) | -4.5 (-105) |
| Total 181.5 | Over (-108) | Under (-112) |
Provider: DraftKings via ESPN · Captured: 2026-10-01T05:32:38.027Z (1:32 AM ET). Source market feed. Prices are a publication snapshot and may vary by operator or change before the game.
Feed-labeled opening fields: away ML +140; home ML -166; home line -4.5; total o183.5. These are one provider’s fields, not independently timestamped market-wide opening quotes. No claim about sharp money or betting volume is made.
Availability and Matchup Context
ESPN lists Caitlin Clark and Aliyah Boston day-to-day, Tyasha Harris out, and Las Vegas’ Dana Evans and NaLyssa Smith out. Day-to-day does not establish availability, expected minutes or effectiveness.
Las Vegas Aces
- Dana Evans — Out; Knee. Source update: 2026-10-01T00:12Z.
- NaLyssa Smith — Out; Leg. Source update: 2026-08-27T19:29Z.
Indiana Fever
- Caitlin Clark — Day-To-Day; Back. Source update: 2026-10-01T00:07Z.
- Aliyah Boston — Day-To-Day; Leg. Source update: 2026-10-01T00:06Z.
- Tyasha Harris — Out; Leg. Source update: 2026-09-26T19:21Z.
Reported player statuses from ESPN’s matchup injury snapshot, retrieved 2026-10-01T05:32:59.428Z. Day-to-day is not confirmed active, and an omitted player is not guaranteed to play. Official schedule and league/team sources are linked below. The WNBA injury landing page supplies reporting rules, not a captured final active list.
Evidence and Scoring Context
The deciding Game 3 has unresolved reported availability for Caitlin Clark and Aliyah Boston. Their status and playoff rotations are not captured in a validated matchup model. A complete market does not establish an edge. No unsupported numerical forecast range or wagering-confidence percentage is assigned.
The Aces’ -4.5 spread and 181.5 total require judgments about Indiana’s primary ball handling, interior minutes and both teams’ rotation choices. Las Vegas’ 31–13 regular-season record against Indiana’s 28–16 is useful context, but it is not an injury-adjusted Game 3 forecast. The complete market supports price comparison, not an automatic selection.
A likely winner and a favorable price are separate judgments. Spread and total probabilities cannot be substituted for the moneyline probability. The half-point total has no whole-number push outcome.
Seven-Desk Analysis
Parker Fields — Personnel
ESPN lists Caitlin Clark and Aliyah Boston day-to-day, Tyasha Harris out, and Las Vegas’ Dana Evans and NaLyssa Smith out. Day-to-day does not establish availability, expected minutes or effectiveness.
Uncle Sibursam — Season Context
Indiana and Las Vegas return to Las Vegas for the deciding game of their first-round series. The official WNBA game record confirms a 9 p.m. ET start and a 1–1 series.
Gideon Marsh — Matchup
The Aces’ -4.5 spread and 181.5 total require judgments about Indiana’s primary ball handling, interior minutes and both teams’ rotation choices. Las Vegas’ 31–13 regular-season record against Indiana’s 28–16 is useful context, but it is not an injury-adjusted Game 3 forecast. The complete market supports price comparison, not an automatic selection.
ConstitutionOwl — Schedule
9:00 PM ET at Michelob ULTRA Arena. The official WNBA event identifies the Game 3 matchup at 9 p.m. ET in Las Vegas. The publication date follows America/New_York; UTC October 2 evening listings belong to October 1 Eastern.
Polly Ticks — Conditions
Indoor arena setting. No unsourced weather or travel adjustment is added.
Liberty Belle — Market
The captured home moneyline requires 64.29% wins to break even; the away price requires 40.00%. After normalizing the pair, the home market share is 61.64%. That share is market-implied, not our confidence. Over requires 51.92% and Under 52.83% at these prices, excluding pushes where applicable.
Warren Bullion — Synthesis
PASS / Stay Away. The deciding Game 3 has unresolved reported availability for Caitlin Clark and Aliyah Boston. Their status and playoff rotations are not captured in a validated matchup model. A complete market does not establish an edge. No stake, no wagering tier and no assigned wagering confidence. The official result will later be recorded without converting this decision into a retrospective selection.
Risks and Uncertainty
ESPN lists Caitlin Clark and Aliyah Boston day-to-day, Tyasha Harris out, and Las Vegas’ Dana Evans and NaLyssa Smith out. Day-to-day does not establish availability, expected minutes or effectiveness. A later price, player-status change or lineup announcement calls for a new assessment, not a silent edit to this published decision. Forecasts are informational, not guarantees or wagering advice. If you wager, use a licensed operator, set limits and never chase losses. Passing is a valid decision.
Sources and Method
- ESPN schedule, market or injury snapshot
- ESPN schedule, market or injury snapshot
- Official WNBA or team source
- Official WNBA or team source
- Official WNBA or team source
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