# September 30 assessment policy

Ten reports, all PASS: four MLB, two WNBA, three NHL and one MLS. No selected wagers, stakes or assigned wagering confidence. Each report includes seven desks, complete markets, source times, availability limits and a newly inspected editorial hero.

Three MLB descriptive baselines use the inherited formula: average offense runs/game and opposing runs allowed/game, add 0.18*(opposing starter ERA-4.20), then -0.08 away/+0.12 home. Round team scores to one decimal. Regular-season statistics use the whole-season aggregate when a pitcher changed teams. These figures are descriptive context, not validated postseason forecasts. The Cubs starter is unlisted, so no fourth baseline is calculated. No expected innings, specific bullpen availability or lineup adjustment is invented. WNBA rotations, NHL goalie choices and MLS matchday squads remain insufficiently established for calibrated probabilities. Qualification gates remain 7 percentage points of edge, 12 for Pick of the Day and 10 for Bonus; the gates do not turn an unvalidated baseline difference into a wager.

American-price break-even probabilities use abs(negative)/(abs(negative)+100), or 100/(positive+100). Normalize both moneyline outcomes for MLB/WNBA/NHL; include home, draw and away for MLS regulation-result pricing. These are market shares, never our forecast confidence. Handicap probabilities are not substituted from moneylines. Feed opening fields lack independent opening timestamps; no sharp-money or betting-volume claim is made.

All eleven September 29 finals matched official league records and ESPN event identities. Prior published calls, prices, categories, baselines and confidence remain unchanged. PASS remains NO GRADE, zero units. The record stays 103–84 and +12.20 confidence-weighted units, not cash profit.

Reported injuries are not final active lists. Empty reports do not mean full availability. MLB return-date fields do not prove activation; NHL goalie confirmation is absent. MLS call-ups are sourced to the club, without assuming final matchday absence or return. The fetched NHL lineup page supplies no validated lineup, and an AP article returned HTTP403 to direct capture; neither is used to claim a verified active roster.