# September 28 assessment policy

Publication market capture: 2026-09-28T11:51:01.559Z (7:51 AM ET), DraftKings. Full paired moneylines, spreads and totals were verified before analysis. One NFL matchup; PASS. No wager, no stake, no assigned confidence and no independent score forecast.

NFL selections use spread/total markets. No independently supported edge clears the retained qualification rules given Chicago’s unresolved replacement quarterback and the limited current sample. No tier is filled merely to complete a slate. The seven named desks explain personnel, context, matchup, schedule, weather, price and synthesis.

The 22.5–19.0 reference is algebra from the 41.5 total and 3.5 spread, not a score prediction. Moneyline margin normalization is (192/292)/((192/292)+(100/260)) = 0.6309403437815976; it is a market-implied share, not forecast confidence. The −192 break-even is 192/292; −110 is 110/210. No opening-line movement or betting-volume claim is supported.

Historical published predictions and numeric confidences are retained. The inherited unit ledger adds/subtracts confidence/100 for wins/losses; it is not sportsbook cash profit. September 27 four selections: three wins, one loss, +1.32 weighted units. Aggregate 103–84, +12.20. PASS rows are no-grade after official finals; the rain cancellation has no invented score.

The Last 20 display is ordered by newest publication date, with existing source order retained within a date. Current PASS has null confidence internally, displayed as Not assigned · PASS and neutral background; it cannot enter wager totals.